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Figgis
15 Sep 24 12:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 9,499 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
While I've seen a few decent 2yo performances from the colts this season, The Lion In Winter being the best so far, I still haven't seen one up to Guineas winning standard. Maybe I will in today's National Stakes. Henri Matisse is the fav and has run to a reasonable Gp2 standard so far. I backed him at short odds last time, but, whereas he seems to have been raised for that win elsewhere, I have him down 4lbs. Whether that was a slight regression or just him being a bit rusty after the break I wouldn't know. With 2yos improvement can be a bit erratic and he may come forward again today.

I actually have Aomori City 1lb ahead of him. Admittedly Wolf Of Badenoch didn't exactly substantiate the form but he was all out from an early stage to get where he did at Goodwood and just ran a lifeless race yesterday. Cool Hoof Luke showed the form in a better light. A 1lb difference is neither here or there when it comes to the decision of placing a bet, but I thought Aomori City showed a nice turn of foot after trouble in running and might improve some more. The big difference in price between him and the fav makes him a bet.
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Report FOYLESWAR November 15, 2024 9:59 AM GMT
one at a backable ew price .......twain a wide margin debut winner who went off a big price may not have  shown a massive amount at home compared to others in the yard but he is probably one who does it on the racecourse which is no bad thing . pitched straight into  group company 8 days later in the grand criterium hints that they realised this one could be more than useful ,held up he quickened past a stablemate and a joseph o,brien  big money sales  race winner apples and bannanas  going away at the end  and value for more should improve .
aob subsequently said "he is  a bit special and obviously a guineas horse and we will put him away for the winter . now i know he says this about many of his good uns . 16/1 with most firms looks very fair ew imo.
selection twain ..16/1 ew good luck opinions encouraged.
Report Brave dancer December 31, 2024 11:55 PM GMT
Have given up on antepost bets on the flat.

Had a nice bet on City of Troy for the 2000 guineas only to see it run like a claimer. Then it proceeds to win everything.

Last good antepost bet was Shadeed 7/2 after winning the Craven. Won 2000 at 4/5 with Piggott up. Can't rely on anything these days.
Report brandyontherocks February 26, 2025 8:41 PM GMT
What figures do you have for Opera Ballo, Figgis?
Report FELTFAIR February 26, 2025 9:08 PM GMT
If Buick opts for Opera Ballo over Shadow of Light on the day you`ll have your answer I would say.
Report Figgis March 3, 2025 3:47 PM GMT
Brandyontherocks, his races haven't been run fast enough to reveal his true ability. In my view, the standard of low grade racing is worse than I've ever known before. Any horse even on the fringes of pattern class would've won those races as convincingly. It's highly likely he's better than the bare form but, personally, at the moment I wouldn't confidently say he's any higher than Listed/Gp3 winning class.

In last year's Guineas I wrongly thought Notable Speech would be found wanting against the likes of Rosallion (my bet) and City Of Troy. COT obviously didn't run his race, and on reflection I'm not sure if Rosallion ran to his best that day. This year's Guineas looks weaker at this stage. At least it does on paper. It could still prove to be a vintage one. Weaker race or not, I won't be backing Opera Ballo on the evidence so far.
Report brandyontherocks March 3, 2025 6:47 PM GMT
Thanks for your time, Fig.
Report FELTFAIR March 5, 2025 7:57 PM GMT
It is perhaps worth pointing out that Notable Speech won a Class 3 on standard/slow at Kempton carrying 9-7 in 1.83 seconds above standard before going on to win the 2000 Guineas. Similarly Opera Ballo won a Class 3 on standard/slow at Kempton carrying 9-7 in 0.76 seconds above standard. Make of that what you will but as stated earlier I think Buick`s will be a clear pointer to the stables best hope for the 2000 Guineas.
Report FELTFAIR March 5, 2025 7:58 PM GMT
Buick`s pick.
Report elisjohn March 25, 2025 4:36 PM GMT
https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/aidan-o'brien?fbclid=IwY2xjawJPub9le...
Report elisjohn March 30, 2025 2:56 PM BST
henri mattise, Wink, in a very open 2,000 gns, quickened really smartly today, i was impressed,
Report penzance March 31, 2025 1:46 PM BST
Ancient Truth N/R.
Report penzance April 3, 2025 5:01 PM BST
Shame,thought this horse was a good prospect.
Put down.
Report Frogger April 4, 2025 12:58 PM BST
Ancient Truth is put down I'm very sorry to hear.

From someone who had St Mark's Basilica at every kind of price - he actually drifted for the 2000 during his 2yo career, and would have scooted up in the english version.

O'Brien's recent record is right off - there will be attention to his big horses lately flopping in the race, but then going on to win the Derby.

Nevermind the betting, I do sense they think just 'Twain' this year plus some minor extras, and then splitting up their second and third choices to other classics.

Rather than load them all up in the same race to get a recent win on the board - I would have imagined they'd would be gagging to fix that.

Maybe Twain has broken their stopwatch this spring, or they have it wrong again
Report impossible123 April 7, 2025 10:41 AM BST
The race is less than a month away yet very little news on the possible participants. I understand AOB has given an interview in the RP.
Report FOYLESWAR April 9, 2025 10:41 AM BST
same here frogger regarding st marks and our 2,000 gns, was also on for plenty at big prices .
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl April 11, 2025 7:57 PM BST
Great to see all these thoughts on the colts classic. I think Scorthy Champ has a decent chance for Joseph O Brien's stable. His Group 1 win was a fine effort. He was not unfancied on the day despite his S.P. He got a good ride and perhaps won a bit cleverly. He can uphold the form with Henry Mattise who has advertised the National Stakes race nicely. I was hoping Scorthy would wait for the Irish 2000 GNS. JP O'B seems all set for Newmarket. Nearer the day we will know if Ballydoyle want to take him on. Interesting times for sure. Good luck lets all have a winning 2025.
Report brandyontherocks April 11, 2025 8:59 PM BST
He is my pick too, Jay.
I liked the way he improved with every run last year.
Report impossible123 April 14, 2025 7:13 PM BST
I think AOB has finally learnt and not rushed his main hope Derby hope for this eg Lion In Winter; Luxembourg and Auguste Rodin were, with the former sustaining an injury as a result, and missing Epsom.
Report SpecialBets April 15, 2025 9:59 PM BST
Anyone know why Shadow of Light has drifted and not being backed at all. Haven't heard any news from Appleby as yet.....
Report elisjohn April 16, 2025 9:49 AM BST
News on the 1000 and 2000 gns, or should i say no news , is pathetic from these trainers nowdays , only 2 weeks to go,
Report penzance April 16, 2025 5:47 PM BST
Cracking performance in the Craven by Field Of Gold today who's the new fav.
Anyone know of any news on the O'Brien trained Expanded,thought he put up a
really good performance in defeat @ Nmt last season (Dewhurst),on just his 2ND
start.
Cheers.
Report SpecialBets April 16, 2025 10:37 PM BST
At least a few answers today. Great performance by Fields of Gold, and Appleby confirming Shadow of Light on track for the Guineas.
Report A_T April 17, 2025 4:22 PM BST
Field of gold looked good - maybe did not beat much - but might not have to on guineas day
Report FOYLESWAR April 18, 2025 5:29 PM BST
green impact 2 from 3 beat Delacroix twice  last season that one won the 10f ballysax 3 weeks ago ,gns the target around 20/1  ew for the gns looks fair imo. already on Swain ante post ew  .
Report impossible123 April 18, 2025 5:37 PM BST
I like Mr Appleby of Godolphin. He's straight with his answers to questions pertaining to his charges next assignments. He does not speak bookie lingo or waffle like Hendo.
Report Delashay April 19, 2025 12:39 PM BST
At this stage I’m very much looking forwards to what looks like an intriguing race, I can’t recall not having a hot favourite or an O’brien , “Best ever” topping the market. With so many interlocking form lines there might be a chance of a Makfi?
Now that the craven has been run the bookies have their favourite. Having had a prep might be an advantage this year also. Will Twain show up without a run or will O’Brien make a change and bring his two, breaking his norm of coming in fresh this year?
Report impossible123 April 23, 2025 6:21 PM BST
Field Of Gold is the lone ranger for Juddmonte according to their racing manager.
Report Blake@1658 April 25, 2025 5:51 PM BST
It seems I put £5 on Field Of Gold @ 18/1 after the horse won at Sandown last August. I have no recollection of placing the bet so I can only assume I was drunk at the time. In my experience alcohol and gambling don't mix. I'm hoping this will be the exception that proves the rule.
Report impossible123 April 26, 2025 4:53 PM BST
Well done! I hope you've a screenshot of the bet. I hope it's not with 'ladcrookes' which makes it very difficult for backers to view their bets from last August online.
Report Blake@1658 April 28, 2025 2:34 PM BST
I'm confined to placing my wagers online. My wife would send me to Coventry if one of her spies told her I'd been frequenting the local betting parlour. I'm afraid I've got no idea what a 'screenshot' is. I assume it's something associated with the computer?
Report impossible123 April 28, 2025 6:38 PM BST
I'm no laptop wizard either 'Blake@1658'. A screenshot is a picture/image of anything (usually important) eg in this case your bet; 'ladcrookes' is making it very difficult for their customers with ancient antepost bets eg those about a year old to view them easily online.

Let's hope Field Of Gold wins for you on saturday.
Report elisjohn April 29, 2025 7:39 AM BST
im the same , useless on laptops etc, i can manage sometines to copy and paste ,  the 2 horses that have taken my eye in the betting on here in last few months are Scarthy Champ and Red letter (1000 g )  .
Report Blake@1658 April 29, 2025 8:23 AM BST
impossible 123 - Thank you for the information. Unfortunately I'm none the wiser.  Confused
Report elisjohn April 29, 2025 10:57 AM BST
blake, just take a photo  of the bet so you have proof, like i say im hopeless, so id get a family member to take it
Report elisjohn April 29, 2025 10:57 AM BST
looks like Twain out of the race
Report impossible123 April 29, 2025 11:12 AM BST
'Blake@1658', find the bet on your laptop. Then take a picture of your bet with your mobile. This will be proof in any dispute.

Twain looks doubtful for this. He's a bad scope after work; too much carrots perhaps (only joking). Odds-on Field Of Gold? I think Mr Gosden was terribly unlucky not to win this with Kingman.
Report Delashay April 29, 2025 11:52 AM BST
I can hear Cilla singing now, “Surprise surprise!” Now that one time fav and May foul, winner of a dubious group 1 is now waiting this one out to be given more time. Backers I’m sure are hearing Lulu no doubt! For that I feel for you, was keen to take on such a late foul at the head of the market.
Report Delashay April 29, 2025 12:05 PM BST
As said earlier lots of interlocking form lines and only those in the know will have a line on who’s progressed.
Note Misunderstood and Rashabar who both finished in front of Field of Gold (currently 15/8) in the Lagardere are 12/1 & 16/1 for the French version.
Report impossible123 April 29, 2025 1:12 PM BST
The filly "Winter" trained by AOB surpassed their counterparts the following season. I hope Lake Victoria will show up at Newmarket despite the extra-race in America.

Hendo is sweet on Hotazhell (2000G) of Mrs Harrington, He's staying at her place on friday while the Mrs Harrington is at Newmarket. Horse trainer 'Airbnb'?
Report Delashay April 29, 2025 1:46 PM BST
She’s quoted as saying  that ((Hotaahell)) is preferred for the French Version.
Report impossible123 April 29, 2025 2:52 PM BST
Yes, Hotazhell is missing this. She's Green Impact; Hendo has told another porkie (again).
Report kincsem April 30, 2025 1:39 PM BST
Seagulls Eleven is my pick.
C'mon the seagull.
Report Delashay May 1, 2025 11:34 AM BST
I like your style and good luck (note you’re a shrewd judge for one at a price) for backers of the Seagul and Scorthy (another May foul) does it not bother you that Picasso’s lifelong rival isn’t showing up here?  Both having form with him from their 2yrold campaign.
Cockney Rebel did reverse his 2yrold form in the Guineas so there’s hope. He was reportedly working like a beast in the run up.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 1, 2025 3:51 PM BST
No it does not bother me in any shape or form as the wexford champ beat him with a little in hand in the National Stakes. Aidan knows best and would be happy for junior to click.
Report Figgis May 3, 2025 10:18 AM BST
I couldn't have fancied Field Of Gold for this on his 2yo form but obviously that changed after the Craven. I have his winning figure that day on par with a typical Guineas winner from the last 10 years (the level of the last 10 years being lower than the previous 10 years, in my view). I've seen runners with higher winning figures, such as Kingman, beaten in this race before, but I always had the suspicion that Kingman was allowed to do a bit too much in his trial so close to the race. The way this year's Craven unfolded I doubt that would be the case with FOG.

Years before I've seen others with higher winning figures beaten, Hawk Wing and New Approach, but both were beaten by improvers who had already shown high class form as 2yos. The only such runner here is Shadow Of Light, who on his Middle Park win I have only 1lb behind FOG. However, that was obviously over 6f and his Dewhurst win wasn't as good. Possibly that was due to the soft ground and the race coming a bit quick, but it's notable that Godolphin had kept him at 6f for four races prior to the Dewhurst, so there has to be a doubt about the mile.

Gosden has said FOG wasn't fully fit last time, which was backed up by his paddock appearance. So if he can improve on that he could well be an above average Guineas winner. I hope that will be the case but personally I'm not banking on that, as in the past when horses have put up high class performances when supposedly not completely fit I have found it rare to see much significant improvement next time.

I have backed FOG but even at the current 2/1 I rate him as value, as for me he's an odds on chance.
Report geoff m May 3, 2025 1:04 PM BST
I think Field Of Gold certainly had the run of the race .He was sheltered and had plenty of cover from a really strong side on wind blowing directly across to the stands side rail in The Craven. Was only the last 1/2 furlong when he hit the front was he exposed to the wind. His main opposition that day Opera Ballo didnt settle & pulled like a train. Wimbledon Hawkeye was exposed to the wind on the flank for most of the race until the other 2 fancied in the race Amori City & New Century put there flanks upside into the breeze. I think reverse the advantage and Wimbledon Hawkeye would have gone close in the Craven.Plus there are the likes of Scorthy Champ (who beat Aomori City in the National Stakes by the same distance as Field Of Gold did in The Craven) plus the 1st & 2 nd in The Dewhurst. So its an e/way W.Hawkeye & Scorthy Champ and a win lay on the fav @ 3.0
Report penzance May 3, 2025 3:14 PM BST
On Expanded in this.
   GL ALL
Report FOYLESWAR May 3, 2025 3:27 PM BST
have already backed green impact but I don't mind a few cracks of the whip and expanded did really well in the dewhurst to finish a close 2nd ,only a week or so after his debut . hopefully I can get near 10s ish on here
Report FOYLESWAR May 3, 2025 3:39 PM BST
well done winners
Report Figgis May 3, 2025 3:54 PM BST
Normally I would accept a beaten Guineas bet at face value but even at this stage of the card it's clear that the final time performance was one of the worst in recent history, obviously affected by the slow early pace. Of course I don't know if the result would have been the same in a truly run race but, in my view, FOG was poorly positioned in the circumstances and I'd be prepared to back him again in a rematch. But well done winners.
Report Delashay May 3, 2025 3:57 PM BST
Gosden was fuming, no one mentioned the jockey on a short price fav, who was lucky in the Craven to get the gap when he did…
Report Delashay May 3, 2025 4:03 PM BST
Come over knows the record of May foals and has targeted Matisse at what looks like a weaker race in France.
Report BALLSEYE May 3, 2025 6:15 PM BST
brandyontherocks As stated"Buick`s pick."
Report Figgis May 3, 2025 7:32 PM BST
Ruling Court now second fav for the Derby. I know they've always seen him more of a Derby prospect. Maybe they're sure he'll stay or maybe it's just that they weren't confident enough about him having the speed to be a top miler. I don't know how well he'll stay but I won't be backing him. He was evidently well suited to how today's race was run, and even though it's possible that he would've won just as well off a truer pace I wouldn't be backing him until he proves it.
Report Emitdeb May 3, 2025 9:54 PM BST
Frankie would have won that race... imo.
Report Figgis May 3, 2025 11:59 PM BST
I've read elsewhere that the Craven was slower than the Guineas and FOG was ridden similarly so had no excuse today. However, it's blindingly obvious that the conditions were much slower for the Craven. The pace today was much slower allowing for conditions. I've also read that FOG couldn't quicken going into the dip, but the sectionals prove he was quickening, but admittedly not as well as the winner, although FOG did finish fastest. Was FOG given an impossible task from his position? No, if he'd have been able to quicken into the dip as well as the winner he'd have won. Horses can still win when given poor tactical rides, but that doesn't invalidate the ride being poor.

FOG was about 1.5 lengths behind Ruling Court when fully asked to quicken and ended up being beaten half a length when finishing best of all. Maybe he still wouldn't have won if he'd have been level when asked, but it's not unreasonable to think he might have.

All that said, the ride given to him is secondary in my thinking that he could prove to be the better horse. The lack of early pace in the race was the bigger obstacle. Ruling Court quickened up better into the dip but whether he would've been as effective off a true pace still remains to be seen. He may well prove that he's even better off a faster pace, but the idea that the superior horse should win whatever the early fractions is nonsense.
Report Delashay May 4, 2025 1:11 PM BST
Figgis I believe the races are about margins, decision making and Buick learnt his craft from Gosden and I imagine that he was cussing when he saw what he did. For me he won the race twice, firstly by deciding not to track Field and move alongside him, boxing him in. Secondly when he decided to kick, it’s visible that he moved first whilst the other waited.
Ryan Moore wins so many races by nicking a length at the right time and Fallon said when you steal a length it’s hard to make up when you’re on the rail and flown at that level.
Top jockeys are the ruthless ones and Billy Boy has that streak. Maybe his mount would have pulled out more? Maybe Shadow needed the run (didn’t see as much rib on show as the winner who’d run in Dubai) and if kept straight he’d of challenged him further. I’m glad to see that that horse retains his ability because the others will likely go their separate ways and he’ll deserve a G1 having been champion 2yr old and should be marked up for his run against two race fit rivals.
Report penzance May 4, 2025 1:29 PM BST
Expanded ran a shocker,had form with the 3RD last year in the Dewhurst.
Best horse won yesterday to me,quickened up best of all when needed.
Report Delashay May 4, 2025 1:39 PM BST
I’d love to know the weight of Shadow of light next time out, Godolphin now have their Derby hope a guineas winner and the dream is still alive for them.

Where will Field Of Gold go next? It could get worse pressure wise for Shoemark as you need your wits about you going around that long sweeping bend at Chantilly with all the scrimmaging involved. The Eclipse back at Sandown with a likely smaller field looks a good fit.
Report roadrunner46 May 4, 2025 1:46 PM BST
Having watched the replay on racing tv, shoemark starts pushing a full 10’seconds after Buick made his move on the winner, unbelievable how bad that ride was he is totally inept, suppose that’s the difference between the best jockeys and the average ones, I do think the winner has a different type of quickening style compared to the runner up, if I’m right it makes no sense why shoemark didn’t make his move first
Report Figgis May 4, 2025 1:57 PM BST
Delashay, I wouldn't say it was a terrible ride, but it obviously wasn't a good one given the pace of the race. If the race had been run at the usual clip then the position Shoemark had him would've been perfect. He should have adapted to how the race was panning out but I understand these things are easier with hindsight.

It was just unfortunate that the race was run so slow for so long. It's not unusual to hear the commentator say there's not much pace early in a Guineas, but usually they quicken up early enough for it not to have a significant impact. That didn't happen yesterday. The only recent Guineas I can recall that wasn't run at a true pace was in 2017, when the best horse, Churchill, still won. However, it was only marginally slowly run and Moore was well positioned. The pace was slower for longer yesterday, given the conditions.

Possibly the result would've been exactly the same if they'd gone a good gallop early, but anyone assuming Ruling Court would've still quickened up the best given a proper test is just guessing.
Report Figgis May 4, 2025 2:12 PM BST
And credit to Shoemark for his explanation on tv just now. Refreshing to hear. People should lay off him now.
Report Delashay May 4, 2025 2:20 PM BST
I never called it a terrible ride, just one that lacked cunning. You can back who you like and trust in their ability but he was lucky to get a gap in the Craven, Gosden said that with a wry smile! Yesterday luck run out against a ruthless winner.
Interesting people are talking about the Irish guineas next, much to Charlton’s dislike I’d guess! But either way if he goes there Ballydoyle will have a plan to take him on, I’ll not be wading in on an unlucky loser. He found three too good for him at Longchamp.
Report penzance May 4, 2025 2:26 PM BST
Shoemark's a very good jockey.
Report BALLSEYE May 4, 2025 4:28 PM BST
Time to turn the page. Ruling Court won and no amount of pontificating will change the history books.
Report Figgis May 4, 2025 4:50 PM BST
As the horses will be racing in future it ought to be important to take a view on past events.
Report Figgis May 4, 2025 6:52 PM BST
I see Shadow Of Light is a possible for the SJP. Given the speed he showed last year over 6f it was no surprise to see him quicken impressively off such soft early splits. However, the race was so slowly run that, for me, it proved nothing about his stamina for a strongly run mile. At the moment I remain doubtful.
Report Figgis May 5, 2025 11:17 AM BST
I see the RP analysis is that FOG should have won but I also see they rate the winning performance well up to scratch. Whereas I rate the performance half a stone below a typical winning effort. That isn't necessarily to say that RC is half a stone below an average winner, just that the way the race was run didn't allow for a proper Gp1 performance. As said previously, maybe RC was also hindered by the early pace but had the tactical speed to still prevail. But my view at the moment is that he was advantaged by how the race was run. FOG is a longer striding horse and RC had already shown some fast fractions when winning in Meydan.

RC might show himself to be the real deal but, for me, this year's Guineas was won by a Gp2 performance. Even if RC does stay the Derby trip, in anything but a substandard renewal he is going to need to run faster than he's shown so far.
Report Delashay May 5, 2025 11:45 AM BST
The thing is the racing post weren’t riding Field of Gold! As for Ruling Court if he’s thought as a a Derby prospect he shouldn’t be quickening up like that (seeing off a miler 10f type in the process) off such a slow pace should he?
The Jacques Le Māoris looks tailor made for Shadow of Light the St James’s Palace isn’t the be all and end all, but his guineas run was massive against two race fit rivals.

As said I’d love to know his body weight for the Guineas and wherever we next see him. Come on Charlie give us the info that should be there for all punters to see, just not those who are on inside ;)
Report Figgis May 5, 2025 12:30 PM BST
As for Ruling Court if he’s thought as a a Derby prospect he shouldn’t be quickening up like that

I don't think you could say he's a doubtful stayer just based on that.

The Jacques Le Māoris looks tailor made for Shadow of Light the St James’s Palace isn’t the be all and end all, but his guineas run was massive against two race fit rivals.

Even the Marois is usually run at a decent pace. The Guineas was run in a time just over a second quicker than the moderate handicap over the same trip while carrying 3lbs less than that winner. It was more of a test of tactical speed rather than being a proper Gp1 mile test. Actually I've never seen a Guineas run in that manner before.
Report roadrunner46 May 5, 2025 1:47 PM BST
Sounds like the plan was to set a steady pace for the race with the Godolphin pacemaker and turn the race into a sprint, knowing they can press the button on ruling court and steal the race, they are tactical geniuses or just taking a leaf out of the coolmore book
Report Delashay May 5, 2025 3:07 PM BST
I appreciate all your time and knowledge Figgis I re: times and comparisons. It’s not what I use. The mile at Deauville is the easiest you’ll get, actually 7f and a bit, I think he’d have no trouble in it. If not then the new Jean Pratt of 7 first.

Re: Ruling Court, I’m not saying he’s a doubtful stayer but saying the opposite maybe he’s quite the horse if he can stay having bagged a slow run mile.

More fool all the other jockeys and they should be given as much stick as Shoemark  then Roadrunner if they let the rag set the fractions. Scorthy and Seaguls both jumped equally as well, Hawkeye just behind who the jock said was to be ridden forwards  to make use of his stamina but didn’t. Interesting they all finished well behind the pacemaker despite only going slow up front, you’d expect that if they went too fast?

I don’t think Godolphin wanted to win with Shadow, hence my comments about the race weight fitness wise.
Report Delashay May 5, 2025 3:16 PM BST
We have the Irish Guineas and French guineas, Aiden always targets Ascot and remember how Paddington appeared? Looks like a big carrot 5/2 for field of Gold not knowing who’ll come forwards from the stable across the water.

Not many horses do the Guineas St James’s double and here’s a horse who was going to break the Craven / Guineas hoodo and now people want to back him to win at Ascot as though he won the guineas. Only the best archive those rarities.

I think Gosden’s post race frustration was that he knows it’ll only get tougher from now on.
Report Figgis May 5, 2025 3:31 PM BST
Delashay, I understand your reasoning and maybe it's a pointer that RC is less likely to stay. It's just that, while he quickened well, they weren't astonishing sectionals given the slow early pace. I really have no opinion whether he'll stay or not.

Interesting they all finished well behind the pacemaker despite only going slow up front, you’d expect that if they went too fast?


Yes that is something that I was very surprised about. On watching the race live I knew they were going slow very early, but given how they finished quite strung out I was expecting to find that they'd quickened up early enough, with me being too involved to notice, which is what usually happens in the Guineas when the very early pace is slow. First reaction was I thought FOG was possibly just flattered by staying on late and I'd overrated him.

I wasn't expecting to find the race was so slow comparatively. I accept that there may be something I have missed or not been able to account for, such as a big change in the tailwind between races, for instance. Possibly I have still overrated FOG's Craven win, but at the moment I don't see it that way.

As for Ruling Court, if he was a runner that was going to be undervalued in future I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. As that's not going to be the case I want concrete evidence he's a proper Gp1 horse, but the way the Guineas was run doesn't provide me with that.

I'm prepared for this statement to be revisited and ridiculed in future if RC goes on to win the triple crown or proves himself an outstanding performer, as it's only my feeling at this stage of the season, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the best of RC on Saturday and he doesn't do a great deal afterwards.
Report Delashay May 5, 2025 3:36 PM BST
Irish 2000 25th May 21 days away (come too soon but didn’t have a hard race) 4/1

Prix Du Jockey Club 1st June 31 days away 20/1 only odds I see from some outfit.

St James’s Palace 17th June 45 days away  5/2

Which do you chance? I think he’s made for the race at Chantilly, stiff uphill, big strong horse can hold his ground.

Not knowing where he’ll go is another reason why 5/2 makes no appeal, sorry impossible!
Report Delashay May 5, 2025 3:46 PM BST
Fair enough Figgis it’s what I was saying he was ready for the day, yet wore the second string hat! It’s good to have an opinion and it’s easy for others to laugh after.

The Dante is a weird one if Lion In Winter shows, he never run his best there (sometimes Leger types) but maybe they think the return to that track will be to his liking.

Lots to look forwards to :)
Report impossible123 May 5, 2025 7:29 PM BST
Immediately in the post 2000G race I think Mr Gosden eluded to connections of Field Of Gold (FoG) had a tendency/liking for running their 2000G runner in the St James's Palace (SJP) at Royal Ascot (17th June). For instance Kingman (2nd at Newmarket) went to Irish 2000G, then SJP. However, Cosmic Year (CY) had been earmarked for the Irish 2000G this year on 24th May prior to the defeat of FoG. However, this might change now, but FoG will not run against CY.

I do not think the French Derby is on the agenda of FoG, and winning the SJP is more prestigious as a sire. Post this FoG could go for The Eclipse at Sandown (10f) on 5th July.
Report Figgis May 5, 2025 10:45 PM BST
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-reaction-to-newmarkets-guineas-meeting--552025

The Timeform view is that FOG possibly should have won ridden more proactively.


https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Newmarket/03-May-2025/1535

Simon Rowlands view is that FOG should have won.

My view is more with Timeform's regarding the ride, in that he possibly would have won. Nevertheless, I do believe if it had been a truly run race FOG almost definitely would have won, and won easily.
Report Delashay May 6, 2025 10:41 AM BST
I like Gosden as a trainer impossible, he’s one of the last of the old school, but I take what is said largely with a large pinch of salt. It might be wrong to compare Kingman and Goldie as the former was an out and out miler, the latter will get beyond a mile so more options are open to him.

Do we think that the pink and green silks have others who are guineas grade? What are your views on Cosmic and Jonquil?  That’s open to all and your figures also Figgis.

Thanks for the links, I’m not a fan of Timeform but it seems everyone is largely in agreement the best ride won and as said earlier Buick won the race twice. The old adage, “You snooze you lose…” comes to mind.

We all have our fav jocks and my list has dwindled dramatically with all the retirements. Take a look back at the ride given to Cicero’s Gift in the St jame’s Palace won by Paddington. Race comments read, “Midfield, not clear run repeatedly from over 2f out, eyecatcher.”
The horse was drawn 2 next to Shelby and Chaldean but broke slow and was never given a chance. It’s why @ 2/1 added with all the other speculation as to target I’d not be a backer as I’m not a fan with my money and trust and there are other horses who could show up.
Report Figgis May 6, 2025 10:57 AM BST
What are your views on Cosmic and Jonquil?


I have Jonquil's best 8lbs below FOG's Craven, and Cosmic Year a further 1lb below. Although as I've said before I wouldn't quibble about 1lb either way. Both open to further improvement but I wouldn't say either of them had easy races last time, so I don't see progression as guaranteed.
Report impossible123 May 6, 2025 4:20 PM BST
Mr Gosden is good, no match to Sir Cecil, Harwood, Stoute or Cumani though. These were supremos of trainers, highly reliable, punters-friendly and never multi-targeted their star charges.

I still think SJP is the key target for FoG unless connections decide to take in the Irish 2000G too on the way.Post this either the Eclipse at Sandown or another 10f prestigious race.
Report Delashay May 6, 2025 4:31 PM BST
Thank you Figgis and yes you could be right about having had not such easy races.

Impossible I now see that Goldie has been installed as 5/4 fav for the Irish 2000

Rashabar isn’t in the French 2000 this weekend but is said to be rerouted here, his odds of 25/1 look way too big in comparison given their respective runs in the Lagadere. Maybe they’ll meet here before the Ascot showpiece.

They were great trainers agreed, I’m glad that Gosden is still going. He was all class when Rewilding came to grief at Ascot and I enjoy his sense of humor. He seems to like the wayward types who’ve reformed so respect to him and Shoemark for quitting the bottle along with Murphy.
Report Delashay May 6, 2025 4:50 PM BST
^ Harwoood was before my time
Report impossible123 May 6, 2025 5:03 PM BST
Gosden is eloquent (his missus is a brief) nevertheless has a tendency to hoodwink punters eg So Mi Dar, the easy winner of the Musidora who did not make Epsom due to a slight injury (Gosden's description) but would be targeted at the Irish Oaks. The horse ran in Yarmouth and Chantilly instead. Another was Jack Hobbs whose 1st target was the Hardwicke but ran in the Prince Of Wales on unsuitable ground instead.

Field Of Gold is 5/4 for the Irish 2000G. It looks like a decision has been made to atone for the disappointment at Newmarket.
Report impossible123 May 6, 2025 5:08 PM BST
Harwood and Starkey were a great team esp on big races. Dancing Brave, Lear Fan, Warning to name 3 I'd remember; Cataldi winning the Lincoln. Those were the days when horseracing was fun, competitive and a proper sport; no multi-targets or dodging another star performer from another target.
Report elisjohn May 6, 2025 6:29 PM BST
agree Imp, harwood was a fantastic trainer, and the days of rouisillon, d brave, kalaglow, warning, d brave was a wonderful era , but id have Gosden better than Luca imo, but hern, stoute cecil, era , nothing on a par with those now
Report impossible123 May 6, 2025 7:13 PM BST
Agree, however, Cumani did not always have the pick of the expensive buys of the big owners. Nevertheless, he did have some very good horses eg Bairn, Markofdistinction, Sudden Love, etc; Fish 'N' Chips won a very big handicap at Goodwood.
Report impossible123 May 6, 2025 7:18 PM BST
I forgot about Kahyasi the Derby winner. Sorry Mr Cumani.
Report Delashay May 7, 2025 11:05 AM BST
Purple Moon and Bauer, I wish there was better footage of Dancing Brave winning the Arc to see his sweeping run.

The news just broke about Shoemark and I don’t like anyone being given the tin tack. As I said you have certain jocks who you trust to carry your money. It’s like the betting shop punters who’d moan about Spencer always leaving it too late, just don’t bet!

This decision was likely made a few days ago when he was 4/1 for the Irish Guineas as highlighted. Now 5/4 so someone has filled their boots before any news as to where he will show next has been released.
I don’t like greed.

Impossible now you see why 5/2 for the Ascot showpiece with that doubt of taking in the Irish guineas first made no appeal.

How shabby we can get odds from every bookie for next years chelts but no anti price market for the Prix Du Jockey Club before the French Guineas has been run!

Always in their favour like the disappearance of 1/4 odds for all group one races with 8 or more runners.
Report impossible123 May 7, 2025 5:07 PM BST
Had Field of Gold won last saturday he'd be going straight to the SJP - his key target. It's over 3 weeks between the Irish 2000G and the SJP. I think the Irish 2000G is his for the taking.
Report Delashay May 7, 2025 6:04 PM BST
And as said to do the Guineas SJP double is very rare. Hope you took the chance @ 4/1 like they have, not the 3/1 that the lazy post reported earlier. Interesting Seagul would like to see him in the Derby going further!
The stiff Curragh mile will help but beware come over likes the race and Rasbabar had the better of him on ground that he disliked, maybe Meehan fancies taking his scalp too?
25/1 for a horse who has form with him and left him in his wake…
Report Delashay May 7, 2025 6:08 PM BST
Taking in the Irish Guineas looks desperate to get the mile G1 on his cv before stepping up in trip. The SJP would be eggs all in, lack of confidence?
Still the jock change is to your advantage.
Report Delashay May 9, 2025 4:11 PM BST
Hi to all the ITV gang! Yesterday Weaver talking about Shadow of Light body weight and the end of the show today all guessing the weight of Illinois. The point is we shouldn’t have to guess when a horse is at its ideal racing weight!

The French Guineas has been drawn, some with shockers in the colts version whilst Ballydoyle send over a few for the Pouliches.
Report Delashay May 9, 2025 4:33 PM BST
Three at first look three of the French have entries for the Ascot race where Goldie is Fav. All three are conditioned by trainers open to travel. 20/1 33/1 & 50/1 for Ascot respectively. They have a terrible record in the colts race, better in the Coronation, but Head’s colt handed 18 of 18 could still be a lurker for Ascot (has to find more on figures) if the draw does for him here, they’ll be hoping for a Lope De Vega run.
Was 16/1 everywhere before the draw now 40’s, 33 & 25 about, though some still at 16/1 and even 14/1.
Report eric_morris May 10, 2025 11:41 AM BST
Has anyone asked O’Brien whether he is going to prepare his best horse for the Guineas with a promise from him you can hit his gonads with a frying pan if he doesn’t do that before all of the Guineas discussions take place?
Report Delashay May 10, 2025 5:20 PM BST
I’ve read two conflicting stories about a horse in the French 2000 tomorrow, one where the trainer says his charge lacks class,  in another he says he’s a champion! Trainers, who’d trust them!
Report elisjohn May 11, 2025 3:39 PM BST
posted 30/03, , fancied h mattise  for 2000 gns in an open race, ffs
Report Delashay May 11, 2025 5:03 PM BST
I’m not sure that winning in France from a favourable draw means that he’d of won the English 2000.
Given he likes a bend you should of been backing for Ascot.
Report brandyontherocks May 11, 2025 8:52 PM BST
Have
Report Delashay May 14, 2025 8:56 PM BST
Why is Twain not listed for the Irish 2000 on the RP?
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