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While I've seen a few decent 2yo performances from the colts this season, The Lion In Winter being the best so far, I still haven't seen one up to Guineas winning standard. Maybe I will in today's National Stakes. Henri Matisse is the fav and has run to a reasonable Gp2 standard so far. I backed him at short odds last time, but, whereas he seems to have been raised for that win elsewhere, I have him down 4lbs. Whether that was a slight regression or just him being a bit rusty after the break I wouldn't know. With 2yos improvement can be a bit erratic and he may come forward again today.
I actually have Aomori City 1lb ahead of him. Admittedly Wolf Of Badenoch didn't exactly substantiate the form but he was all out from an early stage to get where he did at Goodwood and just ran a lifeless race yesterday. Cool Hoof Luke showed the form in a better light. A 1lb difference is neither here or there when it comes to the decision of placing a bet, but I thought Aomori City showed a nice turn of foot after trouble in running and might improve some more. The big difference in price between him and the fav makes him a bet.
I actually have Aomori City 1lb ahead of him. Admittedly Wolf Of Badenoch didn't exactly substantiate the form but he was all out from an early stage to get where he did at Goodwood and just ran a lifeless race yesterday. Cool Hoof Luke showed the form in a better light. A 1lb difference is neither here or there when it comes to the decision of placing a bet, but I thought Aomori City showed a nice turn of foot after trouble in running and might improve some more. The big difference in price between him and the fav makes him a bet.
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Normally I would accept a beaten Guineas bet at face value but even at this stage of the card it's clear that the final time performance was one of the worst in recent history, obviously affected by the slow early pace. Of course I don't know if the result would have been the same in a truly run race but, in my view, FOG was poorly positioned in the circumstances and I'd be prepared to back him again in a rematch. But well done winners.
Gosden was fuming, no one mentioned the jockey on a short price fav, who was lucky in the Craven to get the gap when he did…
Come over knows the record of May foals and has targeted Matisse at what looks like a weaker race in France.
Ruling Court now second fav for the Derby. I know they've always seen him more of a Derby prospect. Maybe they're sure he'll stay or maybe it's just that they weren't confident enough about him having the speed to be a top miler. I don't know how well he'll stay but I won't be backing him. He was evidently well suited to how today's race was run, and even though it's possible that he would've won just as well off a truer pace I wouldn't be backing him until he proves it.
I've read elsewhere that the Craven was slower than the Guineas and FOG was ridden similarly so had no excuse today. However, it's blindingly obvious that the conditions were much slower for the Craven. The pace today was much slower allowing for conditions. I've also read that FOG couldn't quicken going into the dip, but the sectionals prove he was quickening, but admittedly not as well as the winner, although FOG did finish fastest. Was FOG given an impossible task from his position? No, if he'd have been able to quicken into the dip as well as the winner he'd have won. Horses can still win when given poor tactical rides, but that doesn't invalidate the ride being poor.
FOG was about 1.5 lengths behind Ruling Court when fully asked to quicken and ended up being beaten half a length when finishing best of all. Maybe he still wouldn't have won if he'd have been level when asked, but it's not unreasonable to think he might have.
All that said, the ride given to him is secondary in my thinking that he could prove to be the better horse. The lack of early pace in the race was the bigger obstacle. Ruling Court quickened up better into the dip but whether he would've been as effective off a true pace still remains to be seen. He may well prove that he's even better off a faster pace, but the idea that the superior horse should win whatever the early fractions is nonsense.
FOG was about 1.5 lengths behind Ruling Court when fully asked to quicken and ended up being beaten half a length when finishing best of all. Maybe he still wouldn't have won if he'd have been level when asked, but it's not unreasonable to think he might have.
All that said, the ride given to him is secondary in my thinking that he could prove to be the better horse. The lack of early pace in the race was the bigger obstacle. Ruling Court quickened up better into the dip but whether he would've been as effective off a true pace still remains to be seen. He may well prove that he's even better off a faster pace, but the idea that the superior horse should win whatever the early fractions is nonsense.
Figgis I believe the races are about margins, decision making and Buick learnt his craft from Gosden and I imagine that he was cussing when he saw what he did. For me he won the race twice, firstly by deciding not to track Field and move alongside him, boxing him in. Secondly when he decided to kick, it’s visible that he moved first whilst the other waited.
Ryan Moore wins so many races by nicking a length at the right time and Fallon said when you steal a length it’s hard to make up when you’re on the rail and flown at that level.
Top jockeys are the ruthless ones and Billy Boy has that streak. Maybe his mount would have pulled out more? Maybe Shadow needed the run (didn’t see as much rib on show as the winner who’d run in Dubai) and if kept straight he’d of challenged him further. I’m glad to see that that horse retains his ability because the others will likely go their separate ways and he’ll deserve a G1 having been champion 2yr old and should be marked up for his run against two race fit rivals.
Ryan Moore wins so many races by nicking a length at the right time and Fallon said when you steal a length it’s hard to make up when you’re on the rail and flown at that level.
Top jockeys are the ruthless ones and Billy Boy has that streak. Maybe his mount would have pulled out more? Maybe Shadow needed the run (didn’t see as much rib on show as the winner who’d run in Dubai) and if kept straight he’d of challenged him further. I’m glad to see that that horse retains his ability because the others will likely go their separate ways and he’ll deserve a G1 having been champion 2yr old and should be marked up for his run against two race fit rivals.
Expanded ran a shocker,had form with the 3RD last year in the Dewhurst.
Best horse won yesterday to me,quickened up best of all when needed.
Best horse won yesterday to me,quickened up best of all when needed.
I’d love to know the weight of Shadow of light next time out, Godolphin now have their Derby hope a guineas winner and the dream is still alive for them.
Where will Field Of Gold go next? It could get worse pressure wise for Shoemark as you need your wits about you going around that long sweeping bend at Chantilly with all the scrimmaging involved. The Eclipse back at Sandown with a likely smaller field looks a good fit.
Where will Field Of Gold go next? It could get worse pressure wise for Shoemark as you need your wits about you going around that long sweeping bend at Chantilly with all the scrimmaging involved. The Eclipse back at Sandown with a likely smaller field looks a good fit.
Having watched the replay on racing tv, shoemark starts pushing a full 10’seconds after Buick made his move on the winner, unbelievable how bad that ride was he is totally inept, suppose that’s the difference between the best jockeys and the average ones, I do think the winner has a different type of quickening style compared to the runner up, if I’m right it makes no sense why shoemark didn’t make his move first
Delashay, I wouldn't say it was a terrible ride, but it obviously wasn't a good one given the pace of the race. If the race had been run at the usual clip then the position Shoemark had him would've been perfect. He should have adapted to how the race was panning out but I understand these things are easier with hindsight.
It was just unfortunate that the race was run so slow for so long. It's not unusual to hear the commentator say there's not much pace early in a Guineas, but usually they quicken up early enough for it not to have a significant impact. That didn't happen yesterday. The only recent Guineas I can recall that wasn't run at a true pace was in 2017, when the best horse, Churchill, still won. However, it was only marginally slowly run and Moore was well positioned. The pace was slower for longer yesterday, given the conditions.
Possibly the result would've been exactly the same if they'd gone a good gallop early, but anyone assuming Ruling Court would've still quickened up the best given a proper test is just guessing.
It was just unfortunate that the race was run so slow for so long. It's not unusual to hear the commentator say there's not much pace early in a Guineas, but usually they quicken up early enough for it not to have a significant impact. That didn't happen yesterday. The only recent Guineas I can recall that wasn't run at a true pace was in 2017, when the best horse, Churchill, still won. However, it was only marginally slowly run and Moore was well positioned. The pace was slower for longer yesterday, given the conditions.
Possibly the result would've been exactly the same if they'd gone a good gallop early, but anyone assuming Ruling Court would've still quickened up the best given a proper test is just guessing.
And credit to Shoemark for his explanation on tv just now. Refreshing to hear. People should lay off him now.
I never called it a terrible ride, just one that lacked cunning. You can back who you like and trust in their ability but he was lucky to get a gap in the Craven, Gosden said that with a wry smile! Yesterday luck run out against a ruthless winner.
Interesting people are talking about the Irish guineas next, much to Charlton’s dislike I’d guess! But either way if he goes there Ballydoyle will have a plan to take him on, I’ll not be wading in on an unlucky loser. He found three too good for him at Longchamp.
Interesting people are talking about the Irish guineas next, much to Charlton’s dislike I’d guess! But either way if he goes there Ballydoyle will have a plan to take him on, I’ll not be wading in on an unlucky loser. He found three too good for him at Longchamp.
Time to turn the page. Ruling Court won and no amount of pontificating will change the history books.
As the horses will be racing in future it ought to be important to take a view on past events.
I see Shadow Of Light is a possible for the SJP. Given the speed he showed last year over 6f it was no surprise to see him quicken impressively off such soft early splits. However, the race was so slowly run that, for me, it proved nothing about his stamina for a strongly run mile. At the moment I remain doubtful.
I see the RP analysis is that FOG should have won but I also see they rate the winning performance well up to scratch. Whereas I rate the performance half a stone below a typical winning effort. That isn't necessarily to say that RC is half a stone below an average winner, just that the way the race was run didn't allow for a proper Gp1 performance. As said previously, maybe RC was also hindered by the early pace but had the tactical speed to still prevail. But my view at the moment is that he was advantaged by how the race was run. FOG is a longer striding horse and RC had already shown some fast fractions when winning in Meydan.
RC might show himself to be the real deal but, for me, this year's Guineas was won by a Gp2 performance. Even if RC does stay the Derby trip, in anything but a substandard renewal he is going to need to run faster than he's shown so far.
RC might show himself to be the real deal but, for me, this year's Guineas was won by a Gp2 performance. Even if RC does stay the Derby trip, in anything but a substandard renewal he is going to need to run faster than he's shown so far.
The thing is the racing post weren’t riding Field of Gold! As for Ruling Court if he’s thought as a a Derby prospect he shouldn’t be quickening up like that (seeing off a miler 10f type in the process) off such a slow pace should he?
The Jacques Le Māoris looks tailor made for Shadow of Light the St James’s Palace isn’t the be all and end all, but his guineas run was massive against two race fit rivals.
As said I’d love to know his body weight for the Guineas and wherever we next see him. Come on Charlie give us the info that should be there for all punters to see, just not those who are on inside ;)
The Jacques Le Māoris looks tailor made for Shadow of Light the St James’s Palace isn’t the be all and end all, but his guineas run was massive against two race fit rivals.
As said I’d love to know his body weight for the Guineas and wherever we next see him. Come on Charlie give us the info that should be there for all punters to see, just not those who are on inside ;)
As for Ruling Court if he’s thought as a a Derby prospect he shouldn’t be quickening up like that
I don't think you could say he's a doubtful stayer just based on that.
The Jacques Le Māoris looks tailor made for Shadow of Light the St James’s Palace isn’t the be all and end all, but his guineas run was massive against two race fit rivals.
Even the Marois is usually run at a decent pace. The Guineas was run in a time just over a second quicker than the moderate handicap over the same trip while carrying 3lbs less than that winner. It was more of a test of tactical speed rather than being a proper Gp1 mile test. Actually I've never seen a Guineas run in that manner before.
I don't think you could say he's a doubtful stayer just based on that.
The Jacques Le Māoris looks tailor made for Shadow of Light the St James’s Palace isn’t the be all and end all, but his guineas run was massive against two race fit rivals.
Even the Marois is usually run at a decent pace. The Guineas was run in a time just over a second quicker than the moderate handicap over the same trip while carrying 3lbs less than that winner. It was more of a test of tactical speed rather than being a proper Gp1 mile test. Actually I've never seen a Guineas run in that manner before.
Sounds like the plan was to set a steady pace for the race with the Godolphin pacemaker and turn the race into a sprint, knowing they can press the button on ruling court and steal the race, they are tactical geniuses or just taking a leaf out of the coolmore book
I appreciate all your time and knowledge Figgis I re: times and comparisons. It’s not what I use. The mile at Deauville is the easiest you’ll get, actually 7f and a bit, I think he’d have no trouble in it. If not then the new Jean Pratt of 7 first.
Re: Ruling Court, I’m not saying he’s a doubtful stayer but saying the opposite maybe he’s quite the horse if he can stay having bagged a slow run mile.
More fool all the other jockeys and they should be given as much stick as Shoemark then Roadrunner if they let the rag set the fractions. Scorthy and Seaguls both jumped equally as well, Hawkeye just behind who the jock said was to be ridden forwards to make use of his stamina but didn’t. Interesting they all finished well behind the pacemaker despite only going slow up front, you’d expect that if they went too fast?
I don’t think Godolphin wanted to win with Shadow, hence my comments about the race weight fitness wise.
Re: Ruling Court, I’m not saying he’s a doubtful stayer but saying the opposite maybe he’s quite the horse if he can stay having bagged a slow run mile.
More fool all the other jockeys and they should be given as much stick as Shoemark then Roadrunner if they let the rag set the fractions. Scorthy and Seaguls both jumped equally as well, Hawkeye just behind who the jock said was to be ridden forwards to make use of his stamina but didn’t. Interesting they all finished well behind the pacemaker despite only going slow up front, you’d expect that if they went too fast?
I don’t think Godolphin wanted to win with Shadow, hence my comments about the race weight fitness wise.
We have the Irish Guineas and French guineas, Aiden always targets Ascot and remember how Paddington appeared? Looks like a big carrot 5/2 for field of Gold not knowing who’ll come forwards from the stable across the water.
Not many horses do the Guineas St James’s double and here’s a horse who was going to break the Craven / Guineas hoodo and now people want to back him to win at Ascot as though he won the guineas. Only the best archive those rarities.
I think Gosden’s post race frustration was that he knows it’ll only get tougher from now on.
Not many horses do the Guineas St James’s double and here’s a horse who was going to break the Craven / Guineas hoodo and now people want to back him to win at Ascot as though he won the guineas. Only the best archive those rarities.
I think Gosden’s post race frustration was that he knows it’ll only get tougher from now on.
Delashay, I understand your reasoning and maybe it's a pointer that RC is less likely to stay. It's just that, while he quickened well, they weren't astonishing sectionals given the slow early pace. I really have no opinion whether he'll stay or not.
Interesting they all finished well behind the pacemaker despite only going slow up front, you’d expect that if they went too fast?
Yes that is something that I was very surprised about. On watching the race live I knew they were going slow very early, but given how they finished quite strung out I was expecting to find that they'd quickened up early enough, with me being too involved to notice, which is what usually happens in the Guineas when the very early pace is slow. First reaction was I thought FOG was possibly just flattered by staying on late and I'd overrated him.
I wasn't expecting to find the race was so slow comparatively. I accept that there may be something I have missed or not been able to account for, such as a big change in the tailwind between races, for instance. Possibly I have still overrated FOG's Craven win, but at the moment I don't see it that way.
As for Ruling Court, if he was a runner that was going to be undervalued in future I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. As that's not going to be the case I want concrete evidence he's a proper Gp1 horse, but the way the Guineas was run doesn't provide me with that.
I'm prepared for this statement to be revisited and ridiculed in future if RC goes on to win the triple crown or proves himself an outstanding performer, as it's only my feeling at this stage of the season, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the best of RC on Saturday and he doesn't do a great deal afterwards.
Interesting they all finished well behind the pacemaker despite only going slow up front, you’d expect that if they went too fast?
Yes that is something that I was very surprised about. On watching the race live I knew they were going slow very early, but given how they finished quite strung out I was expecting to find that they'd quickened up early enough, with me being too involved to notice, which is what usually happens in the Guineas when the very early pace is slow. First reaction was I thought FOG was possibly just flattered by staying on late and I'd overrated him.
I wasn't expecting to find the race was so slow comparatively. I accept that there may be something I have missed or not been able to account for, such as a big change in the tailwind between races, for instance. Possibly I have still overrated FOG's Craven win, but at the moment I don't see it that way.
As for Ruling Court, if he was a runner that was going to be undervalued in future I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. As that's not going to be the case I want concrete evidence he's a proper Gp1 horse, but the way the Guineas was run doesn't provide me with that.
I'm prepared for this statement to be revisited and ridiculed in future if RC goes on to win the triple crown or proves himself an outstanding performer, as it's only my feeling at this stage of the season, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the best of RC on Saturday and he doesn't do a great deal afterwards.
Irish 2000 25th May 21 days away (come too soon but didn’t have a hard race) 4/1
Prix Du Jockey Club 1st June 31 days away 20/1 only odds I see from some outfit.
St James’s Palace 17th June 45 days away 5/2
Which do you chance? I think he’s made for the race at Chantilly, stiff uphill, big strong horse can hold his ground.
Not knowing where he’ll go is another reason why 5/2 makes no appeal, sorry impossible!
Prix Du Jockey Club 1st June 31 days away 20/1 only odds I see from some outfit.
St James’s Palace 17th June 45 days away 5/2
Which do you chance? I think he’s made for the race at Chantilly, stiff uphill, big strong horse can hold his ground.
Not knowing where he’ll go is another reason why 5/2 makes no appeal, sorry impossible!
Fair enough Figgis it’s what I was saying he was ready for the day, yet wore the second string hat! It’s good to have an opinion and it’s easy for others to laugh after.
The Dante is a weird one if Lion In Winter shows, he never run his best there (sometimes Leger types) but maybe they think the return to that track will be to his liking.
Lots to look forwards to :)
The Dante is a weird one if Lion In Winter shows, he never run his best there (sometimes Leger types) but maybe they think the return to that track will be to his liking.
Lots to look forwards to :)
Immediately in the post 2000G race I think Mr Gosden eluded to connections of Field Of Gold (FoG) had a tendency/liking for running their 2000G runner in the St James's Palace (SJP) at Royal Ascot (17th June). For instance Kingman (2nd at Newmarket) went to Irish 2000G, then SJP. However, Cosmic Year (CY) had been earmarked for the Irish 2000G this year on 24th May prior to the defeat of FoG. However, this might change now, but FoG will not run against CY.
I do not think the French Derby is on the agenda of FoG, and winning the SJP is more prestigious as a sire. Post this FoG could go for The Eclipse at Sandown (10f) on 5th July.
I do not think the French Derby is on the agenda of FoG, and winning the SJP is more prestigious as a sire. Post this FoG could go for The Eclipse at Sandown (10f) on 5th July.
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-reaction-to-newmarkets-guineas-meeting--552025
The Timeform view is that FOG possibly should have won ridden more proactively.
https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Newmarket/03-May-2025/1535
Simon Rowlands view is that FOG should have won.
My view is more with Timeform's regarding the ride, in that he possibly would have won. Nevertheless, I do believe if it had been a truly run race FOG almost definitely would have won, and won easily.
The Timeform view is that FOG possibly should have won ridden more proactively.
https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Newmarket/03-May-2025/1535
Simon Rowlands view is that FOG should have won.
My view is more with Timeform's regarding the ride, in that he possibly would have won. Nevertheless, I do believe if it had been a truly run race FOG almost definitely would have won, and won easily.
I like Gosden as a trainer impossible, he’s one of the last of the old school, but I take what is said largely with a large pinch of salt. It might be wrong to compare Kingman and Goldie as the former was an out and out miler, the latter will get beyond a mile so more options are open to him.
Do we think that the pink and green silks have others who are guineas grade? What are your views on Cosmic and Jonquil? That’s open to all and your figures also Figgis.
Thanks for the links, I’m not a fan of Timeform but it seems everyone is largely in agreement the best ride won and as said earlier Buick won the race twice. The old adage, “You snooze you lose…” comes to mind.
We all have our fav jocks and my list has dwindled dramatically with all the retirements. Take a look back at the ride given to Cicero’s Gift in the St jame’s Palace won by Paddington. Race comments read, “Midfield, not clear run repeatedly from over 2f out, eyecatcher.”
The horse was drawn 2 next to Shelby and Chaldean but broke slow and was never given a chance. It’s why @ 2/1 added with all the other speculation as to target I’d not be a backer as I’m not a fan with my money and trust and there are other horses who could show up.
Do we think that the pink and green silks have others who are guineas grade? What are your views on Cosmic and Jonquil? That’s open to all and your figures also Figgis.
Thanks for the links, I’m not a fan of Timeform but it seems everyone is largely in agreement the best ride won and as said earlier Buick won the race twice. The old adage, “You snooze you lose…” comes to mind.
We all have our fav jocks and my list has dwindled dramatically with all the retirements. Take a look back at the ride given to Cicero’s Gift in the St jame’s Palace won by Paddington. Race comments read, “Midfield, not clear run repeatedly from over 2f out, eyecatcher.”
The horse was drawn 2 next to Shelby and Chaldean but broke slow and was never given a chance. It’s why @ 2/1 added with all the other speculation as to target I’d not be a backer as I’m not a fan with my money and trust and there are other horses who could show up.
What are your views on Cosmic and Jonquil?
I have Jonquil's best 8lbs below FOG's Craven, and Cosmic Year a further 1lb below. Although as I've said before I wouldn't quibble about 1lb either way. Both open to further improvement but I wouldn't say either of them had easy races last time, so I don't see progression as guaranteed.
I have Jonquil's best 8lbs below FOG's Craven, and Cosmic Year a further 1lb below. Although as I've said before I wouldn't quibble about 1lb either way. Both open to further improvement but I wouldn't say either of them had easy races last time, so I don't see progression as guaranteed.
Mr Gosden is good, no match to Sir Cecil, Harwood, Stoute or Cumani though. These were supremos of trainers, highly reliable, punters-friendly and never multi-targeted their star charges.
I still think SJP is the key target for FoG unless connections decide to take in the Irish 2000G too on the way.Post this either the Eclipse at Sandown or another 10f prestigious race.
I still think SJP is the key target for FoG unless connections decide to take in the Irish 2000G too on the way.Post this either the Eclipse at Sandown or another 10f prestigious race.
Thank you Figgis and yes you could be right about having had not such easy races.
Impossible I now see that Goldie has been installed as 5/4 fav for the Irish 2000
Rashabar isn’t in the French 2000 this weekend but is said to be rerouted here, his odds of 25/1 look way too big in comparison given their respective runs in the Lagadere. Maybe they’ll meet here before the Ascot showpiece.
They were great trainers agreed, I’m glad that Gosden is still going. He was all class when Rewilding came to grief at Ascot and I enjoy his sense of humor. He seems to like the wayward types who’ve reformed so respect to him and Shoemark for quitting the bottle along with Murphy.
Impossible I now see that Goldie has been installed as 5/4 fav for the Irish 2000
Rashabar isn’t in the French 2000 this weekend but is said to be rerouted here, his odds of 25/1 look way too big in comparison given their respective runs in the Lagadere. Maybe they’ll meet here before the Ascot showpiece.
They were great trainers agreed, I’m glad that Gosden is still going. He was all class when Rewilding came to grief at Ascot and I enjoy his sense of humor. He seems to like the wayward types who’ve reformed so respect to him and Shoemark for quitting the bottle along with Murphy.
Gosden is eloquent (his missus is a brief) nevertheless has a tendency to hoodwink punters eg So Mi Dar, the easy winner of the Musidora who did not make Epsom due to a slight injury (Gosden's description) but would be targeted at the Irish Oaks. The horse ran in Yarmouth and Chantilly instead. Another was Jack Hobbs whose 1st target was the Hardwicke but ran in the Prince Of Wales on unsuitable ground instead.
Field Of Gold is 5/4 for the Irish 2000G. It looks like a decision has been made to atone for the disappointment at Newmarket.
Field Of Gold is 5/4 for the Irish 2000G. It looks like a decision has been made to atone for the disappointment at Newmarket.
Harwood and Starkey were a great team esp on big races. Dancing Brave, Lear Fan, Warning to name 3 I'd remember; Cataldi winning the Lincoln. Those were the days when horseracing was fun, competitive and a proper sport; no multi-targets or dodging another star performer from another target.
agree Imp, harwood was a fantastic trainer, and the days of rouisillon, d brave, kalaglow, warning, d brave was a wonderful era , but id have Gosden better than Luca imo, but hern, stoute cecil, era , nothing on a par with those now
Agree, however, Cumani did not always have the pick of the expensive buys of the big owners. Nevertheless, he did have some very good horses eg Bairn, Markofdistinction, Sudden Love, etc; Fish 'N' Chips won a very big handicap at Goodwood.
I forgot about Kahyasi the Derby winner. Sorry Mr Cumani.
Purple Moon and Bauer, I wish there was better footage of Dancing Brave winning the Arc to see his sweeping run.
The news just broke about Shoemark and I don’t like anyone being given the tin tack. As I said you have certain jocks who you trust to carry your money. It’s like the betting shop punters who’d moan about Spencer always leaving it too late, just don’t bet!
This decision was likely made a few days ago when he was 4/1 for the Irish Guineas as highlighted. Now 5/4 so someone has filled their boots before any news as to where he will show next has been released.
I don’t like greed.
Impossible now you see why 5/2 for the Ascot showpiece with that doubt of taking in the Irish guineas first made no appeal.
How shabby we can get odds from every bookie for next years chelts but no anti price market for the Prix Du Jockey Club before the French Guineas has been run!
Always in their favour like the disappearance of 1/4 odds for all group one races with 8 or more runners.
The news just broke about Shoemark and I don’t like anyone being given the tin tack. As I said you have certain jocks who you trust to carry your money. It’s like the betting shop punters who’d moan about Spencer always leaving it too late, just don’t bet!
This decision was likely made a few days ago when he was 4/1 for the Irish Guineas as highlighted. Now 5/4 so someone has filled their boots before any news as to where he will show next has been released.
I don’t like greed.
Impossible now you see why 5/2 for the Ascot showpiece with that doubt of taking in the Irish guineas first made no appeal.
How shabby we can get odds from every bookie for next years chelts but no anti price market for the Prix Du Jockey Club before the French Guineas has been run!
Always in their favour like the disappearance of 1/4 odds for all group one races with 8 or more runners.
Had Field of Gold won last saturday he'd be going straight to the SJP - his key target. It's over 3 weeks between the Irish 2000G and the SJP. I think the Irish 2000G is his for the taking.
And as said to do the Guineas SJP double is very rare. Hope you took the chance @ 4/1 like they have, not the 3/1 that the lazy post reported earlier. Interesting Seagul would like to see him in the Derby going further!
The stiff Curragh mile will help but beware come over likes the race and Rasbabar had the better of him on ground that he disliked, maybe Meehan fancies taking his scalp too?
25/1 for a horse who has form with him and left him in his wake…
The stiff Curragh mile will help but beware come over likes the race and Rasbabar had the better of him on ground that he disliked, maybe Meehan fancies taking his scalp too?
25/1 for a horse who has form with him and left him in his wake…
Taking in the Irish Guineas looks desperate to get the mile G1 on his cv before stepping up in trip. The SJP would be eggs all in, lack of confidence?
Still the jock change is to your advantage.
Still the jock change is to your advantage.
Hi to all the ITV gang! Yesterday Weaver talking about Shadow of Light body weight and the end of the show today all guessing the weight of Illinois. The point is we shouldn’t have to guess when a horse is at its ideal racing weight!
The French Guineas has been drawn, some with shockers in the colts version whilst Ballydoyle send over a few for the Pouliches.
The French Guineas has been drawn, some with shockers in the colts version whilst Ballydoyle send over a few for the Pouliches.
Three at first look three of the French have entries for the Ascot race where Goldie is Fav. All three are conditioned by trainers open to travel. 20/1 33/1 & 50/1 for Ascot respectively. They have a terrible record in the colts race, better in the Coronation, but Head’s colt handed 18 of 18 could still be a lurker for Ascot (has to find more on figures) if the draw does for him here, they’ll be hoping for a Lope De Vega run.
Was 16/1 everywhere before the draw now 40’s, 33 & 25 about, though some still at 16/1 and even 14/1.
Was 16/1 everywhere before the draw now 40’s, 33 & 25 about, though some still at 16/1 and even 14/1.
Has anyone asked O’Brien whether he is going to prepare his best horse for the Guineas with a promise from him you can hit his gonads with a frying pan if he doesn’t do that before all of the Guineas discussions take place?
I’ve read two conflicting stories about a horse in the French 2000 tomorrow, one where the trainer says his charge lacks class, in another he says he’s a champion! Trainers, who’d trust them!
posted 30/03, , fancied h mattise for 2000 gns in an open race, ffs
I’m not sure that winning in France from a favourable draw means that he’d of won the English 2000.
Given he likes a bend you should of been backing for Ascot.
Given he likes a bend you should of been backing for Ascot.
I found this part of the article regarding Cosmic Year worth picking through.
“ That Listed win might well be followed by the Irish 2,000 Guineas and even the presence of Field Of Gold, in the same colours, hasn’t stopped Charlton unpicking the race.
"I think he has slightly unique skills," he explained. "I think he's probably quicker than the others who will turn up in the Guineas, so if we can use that to our advantage he'll have a chance.
"Oisin [Murphy, who rode him to his first two successes] has always been convinced he'll stay a mile and I think he will because he's very relaxed when he gets cover.
"The time people tell me he's too quick to stay the Guineas trip on what they say is a stiff track, but on everything we've seen we think he will, particularly if Aidan [O'Brien] doesn't have one of those ten-furlong horses that needs a flat-out pace."
He must be alluding to Twain here who I feel will go back France for the Prix Du Jockey Club but he might also mean Field Of Gold when he says he feels that Cosmic is a quicker type.
Separating the Juddmonte three will mean one stepping up in trip and potentially one or two back should Cosmic not stay the mile.
“ That Listed win might well be followed by the Irish 2,000 Guineas and even the presence of Field Of Gold, in the same colours, hasn’t stopped Charlton unpicking the race.
"I think he has slightly unique skills," he explained. "I think he's probably quicker than the others who will turn up in the Guineas, so if we can use that to our advantage he'll have a chance.
"Oisin [Murphy, who rode him to his first two successes] has always been convinced he'll stay a mile and I think he will because he's very relaxed when he gets cover.
"The time people tell me he's too quick to stay the Guineas trip on what they say is a stiff track, but on everything we've seen we think he will, particularly if Aidan [O'Brien] doesn't have one of those ten-furlong horses that needs a flat-out pace."
He must be alluding to Twain here who I feel will go back France for the Prix Du Jockey Club but he might also mean Field Of Gold when he says he feels that Cosmic is a quicker type.
Separating the Juddmonte three will mean one stepping up in trip and potentially one or two back should Cosmic not stay the mile.
I think it's very unlikely Cosmic Year (7/1) will run against Field Of Gold (8/11) in Ireland. I also think they will not meet in the SJP at Royal Ascot either.
If he did happen to go care to say if you’d be on or stick with Field of Gold who you were keen on also for the SJP? Are you still having seen the French 2000?
Presuming you are right where do you think the Cosmic might rock up and Jonquil?
Presuming you are right where do you think the Cosmic might rock up and Jonquil?
Field Of Gold is not a betting proposition in Ireland even with Mr Murphy onboard; no bet on Cosmic Year either. Horseracing is only a game to me. And, I do not respect anyone who does not provide a specimen when asked by the coppers post wrapping one's car in a tree esp if the person has a history of substance abuse. This repetitive and flagrant flouting of authority is abhorrent to me.
Sorry, I do not know where Cosmic Year and Jonquil might rock up. It could be the French Derby on 1st of June unless Field Of Gold is an absentee in the SJP. The same is true in Ireland. As an aside, the French Derby is also too early for The Lion In Winter going on what AOB has repeatedly stipulated the horse needs more time before Epsom.
I’ve been travelling and busy so not aware as to what you mention. I believe that Keene the Irish jockey has already been selected for the Field Of Gold ride.
Racing does have a lot to do to clean up its image, it’s the only sport I know in which someone can be caught taking a class A drug then be given a poney suspension, normally during the off or close season and then return.
There are many things wrong with the sport and the people who promote it in not getting the best for the punters who feed the hand of greedy.
Truth is it’s a closed shop and people are happy with the status quo.
I’m not sure what type of game it is to you but it’s a passion for me and at times it’s been hard to keep that flame alight what with the scales being continually tilted in the opposite direction, an unfair one. But like in covid we have to adjust, but it shouldn’t be that way.
Racing does have a lot to do to clean up its image, it’s the only sport I know in which someone can be caught taking a class A drug then be given a poney suspension, normally during the off or close season and then return.
There are many things wrong with the sport and the people who promote it in not getting the best for the punters who feed the hand of greedy.
Truth is it’s a closed shop and people are happy with the status quo.
I’m not sure what type of game it is to you but it’s a passion for me and at times it’s been hard to keep that flame alight what with the scales being continually tilted in the opposite direction, an unfair one. But like in covid we have to adjust, but it shouldn’t be that way.
A game now (passion then) in the sense that the bookies (if you've managed to get on) do not allow you to eat into their profit regularly eg about 10 years ago one could build up a big portfolio on The Exchange, and managed accordingly. Now, this is impossible as bookies will masquerade as punters on The Exchange - some with inside info - to manipulate the market or deliberately cheat you eg set a false market or a probable non-runner with inside-info as yet unannounced publicly, etc, to wipe-out one's stake/portfolio in a jiffy.
Also, some big stables with many multiple big race entries for their key charges colluding with bookies making it extremely difficult to pinpoint accurately to build a large portfolio for profit (hopefully). This uneven playing field is too insurmountable to overcome to make it pay.
Also, some big stables with many multiple big race entries for their key charges colluding with bookies making it extremely difficult to pinpoint accurately to build a large portfolio for profit (hopefully). This uneven playing field is too insurmountable to overcome to make it pay.
Thank you for explaining and it seems that you’re no longer enjoying the game as you call it. Having a large portfolio (which sounds rather 1980’s) isn’t my desire nor is watching odds in fractions go up and down.
I’m selective and there are ways and places to find a niche that means you don’t go with the crowd. Yesterday was a window of opportunity in the Lockinge for those who saw it and I’m grateful for those small mercies, until the next, patience is the theme.
I’m selective and there are ways and places to find a niche that means you don’t go with the crowd. Yesterday was a window of opportunity in the Lockinge for those who saw it and I’m grateful for those small mercies, until the next, patience is the theme.
Despite all the difficulties mentioned by impossible, there are still some subtle ways to win a bit on the ante post markets. For instance, Nicky Henderson is always very amenable and happy to talk about his horses in detail. You should listen very carefully to what he says ... and then believe the complete opposite of all this, and bet accordingly. This works for me.
Thanks for the tongue in cheek advice, the less I read and hear from connections the better I select. I’ve no real interest in jumps racing and that season goes on for far too long. No wonder with all the festivals the longevity of horses is short.
May 17, 2025 -- 7:27PM, impossible123 wrote:
I think it's very unlikely Cosmic Year (7/1) will run against Field Of Gold (8/11) in Ireland. I also think they will not meet in the SJP at Royal Ascot either.
Looks like they are going double handed as in the French 2000
Isn’t it disgusting that only two firms have priced this for a race 5 days away yet they are pricing up next years Guineas! 
It’s obvious why, they can lay at shorter odds - it’s a ducking disgrace!
Very unsatisfactory. But, bookies open books for their own benefits, not punters these days. Can anyone still bet pari-mutuel now or only individual (bookie) industry prices?
I’m not sure about the PMU - one firm were quoting 13 runners including Ruling Court! 
Anyone going to start a thread for Irish 2000 or has anyone any further thoughts? They said that there might be rain in Ireland, don’t know how much.
Expect the stiffer track to suit Goldie more than Newmarket, but odds on isn’t my thang!
Also saw the trends, surprised by the draw bias, seems even worse than @ Longchamp for the Mile or 7f!
Expect the stiffer track to suit Goldie more than Newmarket, but odds on isn’t my thang!
Also saw the trends, surprised by the draw bias, seems even worse than @ Longchamp for the Mile or 7f!
Not my work.
Irish 2000 Guineas Trends: 70% Of The Last 23 Winners Raced At Newmarket Last Time Out
21/23 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
19/23 – Won over either 7f or 1m
18/23 – Won between 1-4 times
17/23 – From the top 3 in the betting
17/23 – Favourites that finished in the top two
17/23 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Raced Newmarket last time out
16/23 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
15/23 – Raced at the Curragh
15/23 – Irish bred
11/23 – Won a Group 1 race
11/23 – Favourites
10/23 – Trained by a UK-based stable
9/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (12 wins in total)
9/23 – Won last race
9/23 – Unplaced last time out
5/23 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
4 of the last 11 winners came from stall 1
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 9/2
Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) – all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double
Irish 2000 Guineas Trends: 70% Of The Last 23 Winners Raced At Newmarket Last Time Out
21/23 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
19/23 – Won over either 7f or 1m
18/23 – Won between 1-4 times
17/23 – From the top 3 in the betting
17/23 – Favourites that finished in the top two
17/23 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Raced Newmarket last time out
16/23 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
15/23 – Raced at the Curragh
15/23 – Irish bred
11/23 – Won a Group 1 race
11/23 – Favourites
10/23 – Trained by a UK-based stable
9/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (12 wins in total)
9/23 – Won last race
9/23 – Unplaced last time out
5/23 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
4 of the last 11 winners came from stall 1
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 9/2
Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) – all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double
From Ollie Sangster about his two entries Simmering and Flight re: the Irish 1000
“Both sets of connections are keen on Royal Ascot, so ultimately it will be whether we think the fillies can run here three weeks after Newmarket, and then run in another three and a half weeks' time at Ascot."
Flight went into the English version without a prep.
What he’s saying can be applied to Field Of Gold who is Fav for the colts version and also the St Jame’s Palace at Ascot.
“Both sets of connections are keen on Royal Ascot, so ultimately it will be whether we think the fillies can run here three weeks after Newmarket, and then run in another three and a half weeks' time at Ascot."
Flight went into the English version without a prep.
What he’s saying can be applied to Field Of Gold who is Fav for the colts version and also the St Jame’s Palace at Ascot.
I’d written my views on the Irish version last night, but lost it all when the net dropped!
This race has the look of similarity to the Lockinge, the true milers against those who will get further.
Scorthy Champ
was only entered for the French Guineas and must be a fast horse to defeat Henri Matisse.
Has an entry in the Jean Prat over 7f to back that up.
Officer (who I’ve not yet seen run) was clipped for the Prix Du Jockey Club after his last win. The form was franked by Beckmann who was first time out. (Has interesting other form lines).
Officer was fit that day having won over 7f on his comeback.
Holds entries in the PDJC and Jean Prat.
Currawood was race fit when beaten by officer. Has form to the Lion In Winter as a two year old when beaten further.
Expanded who flopped in the Newmarket Guineas is still the unknown due to his running in the Dewhurst.
He has entires in the PDJC and the Arc but not Grand Prix De Paris. Also Commonwealth.
Field of Gold the Prix Du Jockey Club and its well known they feel he’s their Eclipse horse 10f
Rashabar I’ve a feeling that Meehan has sidestepped the other Guineas and waited especially for this. Jonquil outsped him and he’s talked about getting further in time and the Eclipse.
Was over priced on his running with the Fav from the Lagadere. They’ll be hoping for no rain.
Entered in the PDJC.
The racing post verdict of , “but he is by far the best in this field…” seems an odd one when you watch back the Lagadere and take in that Hotzzhell is already a Group 1 winner highlighted a danger by Gosden and who I’d said before elsewhere - thought Newmarket was his better option. As it was a stayers guineas.
He entered up for the,
PDJC, GPDP and Arc.
Has the look of a trial steeping stone (not for all) for the Prix Du Jockey Club who Delacroix is fav for but not run over a mile this year. Speed for that has tended to be requisite when you think that Lope De Vega took in the French Guineas beforehand.
Maxim Goyen was asked about one of his many and said the same not long ago. Thanks Catherine Ford for getting those insights.
This race has the look of similarity to the Lockinge, the true milers against those who will get further.
Scorthy Champ
was only entered for the French Guineas and must be a fast horse to defeat Henri Matisse.
Has an entry in the Jean Prat over 7f to back that up.
Officer (who I’ve not yet seen run) was clipped for the Prix Du Jockey Club after his last win. The form was franked by Beckmann who was first time out. (Has interesting other form lines).
Officer was fit that day having won over 7f on his comeback.
Holds entries in the PDJC and Jean Prat.
Currawood was race fit when beaten by officer. Has form to the Lion In Winter as a two year old when beaten further.
Expanded who flopped in the Newmarket Guineas is still the unknown due to his running in the Dewhurst.
He has entires in the PDJC and the Arc but not Grand Prix De Paris. Also Commonwealth.
Field of Gold the Prix Du Jockey Club and its well known they feel he’s their Eclipse horse 10f
Rashabar I’ve a feeling that Meehan has sidestepped the other Guineas and waited especially for this. Jonquil outsped him and he’s talked about getting further in time and the Eclipse.
Was over priced on his running with the Fav from the Lagadere. They’ll be hoping for no rain.
Entered in the PDJC.
The racing post verdict of , “but he is by far the best in this field…” seems an odd one when you watch back the Lagadere and take in that Hotzzhell is already a Group 1 winner highlighted a danger by Gosden and who I’d said before elsewhere - thought Newmarket was his better option. As it was a stayers guineas.
He entered up for the,
PDJC, GPDP and Arc.
Has the look of a trial steeping stone (not for all) for the Prix Du Jockey Club who Delacroix is fav for but not run over a mile this year. Speed for that has tended to be requisite when you think that Lope De Vega took in the French Guineas beforehand.
Maxim Goyen was asked about one of his many and said the same not long ago. Thanks Catherine Ford for getting those insights.
Missed Windlord on my rewriting he has form with Hotazhell and any cut being by Dubawi would suit.
He’s another entered for the PDJC with cheek pieces first time.
Field Of Gold drawn on the outside in 9 with O’Brien’s being drawn favourably below 6.
He’s another entered for the PDJC with cheek pieces first time.
Field Of Gold drawn on the outside in 9 with O’Brien’s being drawn favourably below 6.
*Cosmic Year in 5 also seen as a speedster entered up over 7f for the Jean Prat.
Intriguing race.
Intriguing race.
Field Of Gold is not a betting proposition at 4/5. I'd not touch it for less than 6/4 given the draw and a few unexposed ones eg Cosmic Year, Hotazhell and Officer.
When is The Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby)? Oddschecker has it on 8th June. I thought it is 1st June
When is The Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby)? Oddschecker has it on 8th June. I thought it is 1st June
youre correct its the 1st , but i always thought it was just after the english version, just for info the irish is on 29th june
Thanks 'elisjohn'. I'm surprised Oddschecker could have got it wrong.
You have a few running for you if laying Impossible and I think the general consensus is against at the price. That was even before the draw.
What do you make of all three running from Juddmonte? I know you were sceptical about Cosmic running, adding Windlord was a surprise.
Tactics are fascinating here.
The one that bothers me is Expanded.as I think that he’s being seen as a sprinter, via Shadow of Light. But if you look through the form lines of Rock of Cashel - you’d say he’s a pretty dependable yardstick, his form reads like the spine of a book all the way through to others all at around the same distances (being beaten).
What do you make of all three running from Juddmonte? I know you were sceptical about Cosmic running, adding Windlord was a surprise.
Tactics are fascinating here.
The one that bothers me is Expanded.as I think that he’s being seen as a sprinter, via Shadow of Light. But if you look through the form lines of Rock of Cashel - you’d say he’s a pretty dependable yardstick, his form reads like the spine of a book all the way through to others all at around the same distances (being beaten).
5L Henri Mattissse
5 1/2 Scorthy Champ (when he beat Henri M)
6 1/4 Shadow of Light
6 1/2 Henri M again
7 1/2 Delacroix
Most consistent type!
5 1/2 Scorthy Champ (when he beat Henri M)
6 1/4 Shadow of Light
6 1/2 Henri M again
7 1/2 Delacroix
Most consistent type!
Brian Meehan on Rashabar :
"I was really happy. The idea of the race on Saturday for Rashabar was it was a trial. It was to get him started, get him out, get him running. He hadn’t run since the first week of October, had done very well over the winter, put on a lot of condition, and we didn’t want to overtrain him and get him fit. We wanted to bring him on by giving him a run."
In terms of which Guineas to target he added: “What would tempt me with Newmarket is it would be a stiffer mile, which is what I think he needs. I think he’ll probably go further in time.
So he’s opted to go for the stiffest of all.
Missed the French version because of a temperature!
Meehan feels Rashabar is one of the best horses he's trained, and was happy to compare to him to Delegator who finished second to Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas of 2009.
“He’s up there for sure. Placed in two Group Ones, on one occasion he was probably on the wrong side of the draw and on the second occasion it was probably on ground he didn’t like. He could easily be one of the best I’ve ever trained.
“He’s very similar in type to look at as Delegator. They’re both very good looking horses with huge depth and took quite a bit of training because they both carried a lot of condition. I would certainly think he’s as good.”
"I was really happy. The idea of the race on Saturday for Rashabar was it was a trial. It was to get him started, get him out, get him running. He hadn’t run since the first week of October, had done very well over the winter, put on a lot of condition, and we didn’t want to overtrain him and get him fit. We wanted to bring him on by giving him a run."
In terms of which Guineas to target he added: “What would tempt me with Newmarket is it would be a stiffer mile, which is what I think he needs. I think he’ll probably go further in time.
So he’s opted to go for the stiffest of all.
Missed the French version because of a temperature!
Meehan feels Rashabar is one of the best horses he's trained, and was happy to compare to him to Delegator who finished second to Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas of 2009.
“He’s up there for sure. Placed in two Group Ones, on one occasion he was probably on the wrong side of the draw and on the second occasion it was probably on ground he didn’t like. He could easily be one of the best I’ve ever trained.
“He’s very similar in type to look at as Delegator. They’re both very good looking horses with huge depth and took quite a bit of training because they both carried a lot of condition. I would certainly think he’s as good.”
Having been away for the weekend and missed all of the action, was disappointed with what beforehand looked a strong running of the race. Seemed to me having only watched quickly to have beaten non stayers and others who need to step up further in trip last month!!
Can see why so many have the 7f John Pratt entry.
Had hoped for a strong bunch of milers this year but they seem to be sparse!
For this race Goldie has been given the higher rating which I find odd.
Scorthy Champ beaten last twice:
Newmarket 2000 Guineas 7 1/2 lengths
Curragh 2000 Guineas 6 1/4
The time boys said Cosmic would have been close to the front three at HQ but he had his chance, maybe needs a bend.
Surprised that Ruling Court wasn’t made fav for the Derby - having his form franked. Shadow of Light (first time out) ran huge.
Can see why so many have the 7f John Pratt entry.
Had hoped for a strong bunch of milers this year but they seem to be sparse!
For this race Goldie has been given the higher rating which I find odd.
Scorthy Champ beaten last twice:
Newmarket 2000 Guineas 7 1/2 lengths
Curragh 2000 Guineas 6 1/4
The time boys said Cosmic would have been close to the front three at HQ but he had his chance, maybe needs a bend.
Surprised that Ruling Court wasn’t made fav for the Derby - having his form franked. Shadow of Light (first time out) ran huge.
Indeed. Maybe it's because of his connections and, if AOB is proven correct that Moore will find it difficult not to ride Delacroix. Personally The Lion In Winter is the only horse with the class to beat Ruling Court.
I'd even oppose Delacroix with Lambourn.
I'd even oppose Delacroix with Lambourn.
Opera Ballo an inmate of Appleby was 7/2 2f at Newmarket 2000G. He's 2.34 (here) at 20:05 Sandown.
Confirmed Field of Gold for the SJP with Cosmic Year dropping back to 7f for the Prix Jean Prat.
Dave Ord didn’t ask where Jonqiul will be heading
when interviewing the Juddmonte racing manger just now on attheraces.
Just said (DO) that he’s entered for lots including the Commonwealth Cup… useless interview.
Dave Ord didn’t ask where Jonqiul will be heading
when interviewing the Juddmonte racing manger just now on attheraces. Just said (DO) that he’s entered for lots including the Commonwealth Cup… useless interview.
I'd be prepared to back him again in a rematch
So we get the rematch in today's SJP. At the Curragh FOG did what I expected him to do at Newmarket given a true pace. As suspected, I didn't have him improving much from his already decent Craven performance. At the moment I have him rated as an up to scratch Guineas winner, but not yet an exceptional one like his sire Kingman. He has twice put up Gp1 time performances now, whereas Ruling Court is still yet to put up one. Maybe RC can prove he still would've won off a true pace in the Guineas, but I'll only believe it when I see it. Henri Matisse is barely a Gp2 horse who was beating Gp3 horses in the French Guineas and needs to improve again.
My main concern for FOG is that this will require a fourth big performance from him in only two months. While the Guineas wasn't run in a fast overall time, he was still asked to run very fast late on. Apart from that I see him as unlikely to be beaten today and will be backing him for the third consecutive time.
So we get the rematch in today's SJP. At the Curragh FOG did what I expected him to do at Newmarket given a true pace. As suspected, I didn't have him improving much from his already decent Craven performance. At the moment I have him rated as an up to scratch Guineas winner, but not yet an exceptional one like his sire Kingman. He has twice put up Gp1 time performances now, whereas Ruling Court is still yet to put up one. Maybe RC can prove he still would've won off a true pace in the Guineas, but I'll only believe it when I see it. Henri Matisse is barely a Gp2 horse who was beating Gp3 horses in the French Guineas and needs to improve again.
My main concern for FOG is that this will require a fourth big performance from him in only two months. While the Guineas wasn't run in a fast overall time, he was still asked to run very fast late on. Apart from that I see him as unlikely to be beaten today and will be backing him for the third consecutive time.
Danger abounds coming on here. Well played Figgis. Knowledge & skill rewarded.
Figgis as ever it’s well written and with reason. Impossible however gets a lot of stick on here from all sides and he is the only one who put the horse up weeks ago. He deserves credit for the foresight, after all it is an anti post forum.
I was guilty of playing the odds and also hoping that we’d see someone put it up to Field Of Gold. It was a great performance and even if the trip was a doubt for Henri I thought he’d be closer than Cosmic Year was at the Curragh.
I was guilty of playing the odds and also hoping that we’d see someone put it up to Field Of Gold. It was a great performance and even if the trip was a doubt for Henri I thought he’d be closer than Cosmic Year was at the Curragh.
If he put it up as an actual bet on here I must've missed it. So well done him. These days I'm never interested in anything under at least 5/1 for a race weeks away, but well done to anyone who can make that type of punting pay.
That’s understandable and I’m pretty much the same, he’d doubled it with Rosallion so was unlucky.
What’s your fancy for the POW today?
What’s your fancy for the POW today?
I'm not going to write the race off as a poor renewal yet, as one of them might improve significantly. However, going into the race, while it's true this year's version might have more depth than in some years, I view it as no better than a Gp2 on paper.
Apparently O'Brien still views Los Angeles as his no.1 older horse, ahead of Jan Brueghel, but I'm yet to see the evidence on the track. Anmaat won a Gp1 last year, but I don't see him as an up to scratch Gp1 winner, and I doubt he's going to change my opinion now he's a 7yo. Los Angeles showed battling qualities to beat him last time but making such heavy weather of that task didn't thrill me. LA is still open to further progress, he showed improvement from his first to his second race this year, and you'd guess they've seen even more potential in his home work, but there's no way I'd back him.
Map Of Stars and Ombudsman are others open to further improvement but they'll need it to become proper Gp1 horses. I said previously that while See The Fire improved a chunk last time I didn't believe she was good enough to beat a top class colt. Nevertheless it wouldn't be a big surprise if she won today if nothing else improves. So even though it's a race I love to have a bet in it's a no bet today. I just hope we see a classy performance whoever wins. Are you having a bet in the race?
Apparently O'Brien still views Los Angeles as his no.1 older horse, ahead of Jan Brueghel, but I'm yet to see the evidence on the track. Anmaat won a Gp1 last year, but I don't see him as an up to scratch Gp1 winner, and I doubt he's going to change my opinion now he's a 7yo. Los Angeles showed battling qualities to beat him last time but making such heavy weather of that task didn't thrill me. LA is still open to further progress, he showed improvement from his first to his second race this year, and you'd guess they've seen even more potential in his home work, but there's no way I'd back him.
Map Of Stars and Ombudsman are others open to further improvement but they'll need it to become proper Gp1 horses. I said previously that while See The Fire improved a chunk last time I didn't believe she was good enough to beat a top class colt. Nevertheless it wouldn't be a big surprise if she won today if nothing else improves. So even though it's a race I love to have a bet in it's a no bet today. I just hope we see a classy performance whoever wins. Are you having a bet in the race?
Thanks for your views Figgis and it’s interesting how you class the races by Group. I can see two sides to what you’re saying.
If you have a look at Horizon Dore hes a good yardstick. Was beaten 1 L 3/4 last year by Rodin. I never felt he quite stayed the stiff 10f. He always comes with a run then fades.
This year he hasn’t been the same but still seems consistent.
Beaten 2 1/2 by Map Of Stars
3 1/4 by Sosie
Then 3 1/2 by Sosie
He (Sosie) was behind LA in the Arc so he probably holds the edge. We know what we’ll get with the AOB horse.
I just have Map Of Stars and Ombudsman on some ap multiple bets. Thought they were the improvers. There’s lots of confidence in Map Of Stars but people forget he was beaten by Gosden’s horse and if you watch the race he was the same there as he was against Sosie went to win but failed to go past. So I wonder about his resolution.
Ombudsman seems over priced to me on that form and his trainer knows what he needs for this race and I expect him to improve lots for his comeback, just aren’t sure if he needs cut?
Graffard is tricky however and maybe we’ll see an improvement like we did with MOS as we did Goliath in the King George?
The market is too close to tempt me to have a single. I don’t like races where you have four runners with a point between them.
There’s no edge so I went for the filly Start of Day in the race before, she split MOS and Ombudsman in the Prince du Orange and at 20/1 has enough edge for me to back whereas the 9/2 shots don’t.
She wasn’t beaten far in the L’Opera and I think that the 10f stretched her, so hoping that the stiff mile suits her and Head I don’t think just travels for a day out like his Dad Freddy and has come to be competitive. Will she like the quick ground I don’t know but she’s mixed it with colts who are fancied today and I’d rather chance her than See The Fire on the back of that one run. She only has 3 L to make up on Amnat from the Champion however.
If you have a look at Horizon Dore hes a good yardstick. Was beaten 1 L 3/4 last year by Rodin. I never felt he quite stayed the stiff 10f. He always comes with a run then fades.
This year he hasn’t been the same but still seems consistent.
Beaten 2 1/2 by Map Of Stars
3 1/4 by Sosie
Then 3 1/2 by Sosie
He (Sosie) was behind LA in the Arc so he probably holds the edge. We know what we’ll get with the AOB horse.
I just have Map Of Stars and Ombudsman on some ap multiple bets. Thought they were the improvers. There’s lots of confidence in Map Of Stars but people forget he was beaten by Gosden’s horse and if you watch the race he was the same there as he was against Sosie went to win but failed to go past. So I wonder about his resolution.
Ombudsman seems over priced to me on that form and his trainer knows what he needs for this race and I expect him to improve lots for his comeback, just aren’t sure if he needs cut?
Graffard is tricky however and maybe we’ll see an improvement like we did with MOS as we did Goliath in the King George?
The market is too close to tempt me to have a single. I don’t like races where you have four runners with a point between them.
There’s no edge so I went for the filly Start of Day in the race before, she split MOS and Ombudsman in the Prince du Orange and at 20/1 has enough edge for me to back whereas the 9/2 shots don’t.
She wasn’t beaten far in the L’Opera and I think that the 10f stretched her, so hoping that the stiff mile suits her and Head I don’t think just travels for a day out like his Dad Freddy and has come to be competitive. Will she like the quick ground I don’t know but she’s mixed it with colts who are fancied today and I’d rather chance her than See The Fire on the back of that one run. She only has 3 L to make up on Amnat from the Champion however.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoFjHBy8v6w
There’s the race for anyone that’s interested.
There’s the race for anyone that’s interested.
I reckon anything capable of improving to genuine Gp1 standard should be winning this by 4 or 5 lengths. That's how far behind I have this lot compared to previous up to par winners.
That’s where I find the form funny vs ratings because Rodin didn’t put the distance on Horizon Dore that the others have and I’d expect him to beaten him further with HD being at his stamina limit over 10f @ Ascot.
It’s worth noting that the strong pace last year see Zarakem run a PB so we could see improvement from the more lightly raced runners - the trainer brings Factor Cheval this year.
It’s always been one of my favourite races of the year and I’m hoping we have another classic tussle.
Being a winner over 1m 4f gives LA an edge at Ascot I sort of hate to admit.
It’s worth noting that the strong pace last year see Zarakem run a PB so we could see improvement from the more lightly raced runners - the trainer brings Factor Cheval this year.
It’s always been one of my favourite races of the year and I’m hoping we have another classic tussle.
Being a winner over 1m 4f gives LA an edge at Ascot I sort of hate to admit.
LA has good and strong constitution. He tries his best. However, I like Jan Brueghel best of AOB's trio stayers eg Illinois, Los Angeles and Jan Brueghel.
I think O'Brien will be rethinking his no.1 for the King George 
The horse got Buick out of trouble there big time glad to see it upheld the form! Even if the filly was a nut nut!
Great turn of foot and training by the Diamond Man.
Great turn of foot and training by the Diamond Man.
With regards to the absentee White Birch he's more likely to get the ground he craves in the Champions Stakes at Ascot in October, according to his trainer. He'll take in a race in Ireland prior.
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