epsom derby 2025

Listening to Buick there I think he will be pulled. Said the ground was testing with the rain having gotten in. They won’t rush another guineas winner on it surely?

I think Ruling Court will be pulled tomorrow as well. Today the ground was tacky in The Oaks; tomorrow can only be worse. And, the horse does not need to run either. He'd go for the SJP or The Eclipse then.

8 now … lots of rain forecast.

You’re not getting me on Lambourn by the way, was blinkered third time out when thrashed in the Beresford, went to France (Caron yeah where’s that?!) , the horse it beat there was beaten in the German 1000 guineas.

All the press are wise guy tipping it, barge pole for me.

Remember Impossuble you mentioned the word class.

before today did appleby ever say RC would not run if the ground was soft?

No it wasn’t ever mentioned. But then again you get there see it’s watered…. Get O’Bidened and have second thoughts.

I feel confidence was stronger about the filly today getting the trip. Just my gut from interviews. Even today he said to Chapman that she gallops up the Molton gallop which is a hill strongly.
No mention of Ruling Court doing so and Chapman asked an open question about both their chances of staying.

He said if you see that mile out strong there (and said she can’t be pulled up at the end of it) then they think that they’ll get a mile and a half.

A nice insight into the working there.

Obviously the result of one bet doesn't affect the result of another, but when backing a shorty that runs as poorly as Desert Flower did today I sometimes question my current judgement. Nevertheless, I am still backing Delacroix. If he hadn't been a runner I'd have left this year's Derby alone as I just don't see anything else up to scratch.

I backed Lazy Griff at 85s this evening.
It is a bet on the weather and the possibility of rain overnight.
I think the favourite Delacroix might not stay, and Ruling Court has not been tried beyond 8f.
I have no idea if Lazy Griff would handle soft but the possibility of slow going might make the race a lottery.

I backed Pride Of Arras after the Dante.
In recent days I thought it was looking an interesting and open race.
Looking again today I think Pride Of Arras is still value at 5s, and have gone in again.
Good luck all.

Did you see Beckett’s comment? He was surprised that Pride of Arras won so easily on fast ground as he was convinced it wouldn’t suit him.G/L brandy

Following Figgis with the fav. The stamina doubts about Delacroix held by many pundits could be right but that win over the mile in Doncaster last backend gives him a good chance to handle the extra half mile imo. Persica in the Betfred Diomed catches the eye. Back down to a Group3 from he Lockinge and RM taking the ride, on AP's Derby Day. The Hannon team must have been real anxious to get the great RM back on this fellow. My only other bet.

As with the Oaks, I layed a a subsequent non runner, Wimbledon Hawkeye,so all good.I tend to trust the colts at this time of the year more than the fillies and the two Group 1 colts are Ruling Court and Delacroix who, maybe boringly,either would be the best result for me. It appears that the weather may change everything and strong opinions may get washed away.Overall I like Delacroix`s credentials the best.

Thanks to all that engaged about the race, hope it’s as good as we wish it to be!

The 5 runner 10f race Delacroix won at Leopardstwon looks as weak as water.
The 4th and 5th next ran in a 12f Listed race at Leopardstown and finished 3rd and 8th.
Delacroix's 10f race win was 4.99s slow.
The next race, also 10f, a 3yo fillies maiden was 1.86s slow
The race after that, a 10f haddicap was 1.43s slow.

Delacroix Ballysax win was a better time, and any estimate of his ability hinges on the Ballysax.

there's a lot of rain heading towards epsom right now - 3pm

i think the favourite is too short - think it could be a serpentine type here prefer lambourn

The fav is far too short. I think he'll drift if rain arrives; Lambourn winning is good for the National Hunt (not Flat).

Ruling Court - N/R.

think it would have run if their filly had won yesterday - 2 guineas winners both beaten at epsom would have been hard to take

The Lion in Winter will not be deserted by myself, Colin gets a dream ride. Fingers crossed!

If you look at Tennessee Stud's race record, it looks like they have been struggling to find races long enough for him:
He started out at 8.5f in August, then won his maiden at 9f.  Won a 3 runner group 1 (2yo) at 1m2f, heavy (still only in Oct).
Looks like he will need every yard of today's trip.  If it doesn't work out for him today, his future could include Melbourne Cup (one of Joseph's favourites) or Ascot Gold Cup. But I expect a good run today against some dubious stayers.

MIDAK could improve and win for Aga Khan connections so is the EW bet. DELACROIX is my saver.

That was sore - Euro 100 at 77 (adjusted for NR) on Lazy Griff.

Ryan Moore holding up the favourite 30 lengths off the pace, sickening their antics in the derby

Happy with my two NEW GROUND and TENNEESSE STUD both too far back but backed EW

I couldn’t have Lambourn as said but don’t think he’s the best there today.

Couldn’t make up the ground.

Jun 2, 2025 -- 10:55AM, Delashay wrote:

Ponderado was beaten 4 1/2 by Lazy Griff beaten 1 1/2 by Lambourn at Chester.Ponderado beaten 2 L by Midak over 1m 3f this year. Lazy Griff 80/1 60/1 Midak 10, 12, 14/1 !!! The lure of the unbeaten colt…. a word I dislike, “value” he is not at those odds.

And glad you liked that Kincsem!

Chester Vase (1) Lambourn (2) Lazy Griff

Didn’t see any mention of that before the race!

And no one can think that that result would be the same if all in a smaller group. Got the run of the race on the front.

To borrow a quaote from Michael Kinanne after a previous Derby "they were all strun out like Brown's cows".
No excuses for any imo.
The winner strung them out and they couldn't get to him.

*strung

Fav ran a strange race but no excuse in the end. The winner not the biggest shock but not one I could've backed, so well done winners. He looks more like a Harzand than one I can see winning big events, but I've underrated him this far, so you never know.

Aiden leading him wasn’t odd was it

Anyone else seen him do that ever?

* Leading in the parade

In May I got an e-mail from Australia for someone I correspond with about pedigrees.
He suggested Lambourn at 24s for the Derby and I said I did not like his chances.
I hope he ignored me and bet the horse.

Jun 5, 2025 -- 2:42PM, Delashay wrote:

2025Delacroix

Jun 7, 2025 -- 4:05PM, kincsem wrote:

In May I got an e-mail from Australia for someone I correspond with about pedigrees.He suggested Lambourn at 24s for the Derby and I said I did not like his chances. I hope he ignored me and bet the horse.

I’m glad you had a good one too.

That Dante did suck. Lots of eggs in the one basket from that in the betting.

Jun 5, 2025 -- 2:42PM, Delashay wrote:

2025Delacroix

I am delighted for winning jockey Wayne Lordan as he had a bad fall in the Irish Derby in July 2023.

... unshipped by San Antonio half a mile from home at the Curragh,
which sent him crashing to the ground and left him knocked out with fractures to his legs and elbow,
as well as a nasty laceration to his arm. San Antonio was fatally injured in the incident.

Thank goodness I did not lay the winner. I nearly did until I saw where Delacroix was at the start. I thought Lambourn was doing the donkey work for Delacroix.

I'm so pleased for Lordan. A likeable chap and a very popular jockey in the changing room.

The fav slow as a boat. The punter who had 8k on at 2s must have come out of the local asylum.

Excuse the misposts was trying to fill in the record for Delacroix after the Derby trial run.


2025
Delacroix  won by 2 3/4L  G      - 2m 10.59s     9/19 @ Epsom

2024
Los Angles won by   1L   gd/gf    -  2m 6.82s  3/16 @ Epsom

2023
Stone Age won by 5 1/2L. gd     - 2m 8.25s  6/17 @ Epsom

2021
Bolshoi Ballet won by 6L  g/gy   -   2m 7.37s   7/11 @ Epsom

2019
Broome    Won by 2 1/2   G/y    -  2m  9.18s     4/13 @ Epsom


I’m no student of times but that looked so iffy.

Be something to add to next year.

Now back to the bar and admit I’d thrown my ticket at the tv on the way to post for New Ground! more hot headed than my ex French bird!

he's in good company ryan moore chose it over the winner

Lambourn came out of "lucky stall 10"

fun fact: aidan's won 6 derbys since rm became the stable jockey - ryan's been on 2 of them

The Dubawi curse happens again. A shortie by Dubawi imploded again.

He did! Aiden led it - 8 letters -  all aligned!

Just to think the jockey could have had a Derby and Oaks double!

Thanks AT uncanny stat that!

Figgis I’d be interested to know how you saw this time wise? Visually I thought that they went quite slow, certainly not fast and he was able to nick a couple of lengths turning.

Does anyone think a lot of winners will come out from this?

Delashay, a below average time performance. The reason I mentioned Harzand is because I have him on the same figure. Not the worst winning performance in recent years, I have Wings Of Eagles and Ruler Of The World slightly below him. The question now is was that an improved performance he's going to repeat? Or just a one off, like Serpentine, where the horse just ran the race of his life from the front. Either way I can't see him winning much more than an Irish Derby.

Thanks Figgis I tend to agree with your thoughts and can place him now in line through the past winners that you’ve mentioned.
He definitely came forwards from Chester and there is the key, he was given more time.

I was looking at the days since last race and he was there along with New Ground having had a good break.

Don’t believe that Delacroix was running on his merits and was ridden how I expected the Lion to be.

O’Brien leading him in the parade in front of the stands really was a sit up and notice moment.

Can’t help think Whirl surprised them yesterday and that today was meant to be his day. Seemed like plenty of people knew.

Was being tipped ew with the rain thought to fall but he didn’t need it.

The draw also was low to middle and lucky number 10! Those high done well to get involved.

Much appreciate the views from people who have been around more and seen more than me.

Impossible you said that Ruling Court was going to make Fuekd Of Gold a better price in the SJP, his re routing is interesting as he’s now second fav.
I don’t know if Chazza has decided that it’s a no go for Shadow of Light?

But they’ve pushed out Henri Mattisse on the back of it. Strangely the French form is now looking strong and I’d be with that to shine.

Field Of Gold

Starts 7      Wins 4     2nd 1    3rd 1   

Henri Mattisse

Starts 8      Wins 6      2nd 1      3rd 0   


Both unplaced in the Lagadere, real rain would be a worry for the latter but 4/5 vs 4/1 with his French Guineas form having been franked in the PDJC.

No one expected Rulling Court to be anywhere today and this isn’t an ideal prep.

Jun 7, 2025 -- 3:57PM, kincsem wrote:

To borrow a quaote from Michael Kinanne after a previous Derby "they were all strun out like Brown's cows".No excuses for any imo.The winner strung them out and they couldn't get to him.

I loved Kinane but that’s stretching it! Clear bias!

Why didn’t you fancy it either Kincsem? Was it purely an odds thing?

Great ride by Lordan but a very disappointing Derby - not far off Serpentine levels.

The massive front running bias ruined the whole meeting really - so much for the really long straight making it a real leveller.

The 3/1 for the Leger has gone but even 5/2 with perhaps a stakes saver on Tennessee Stud at 10/1 might not be the worse investment.

Stanhope Gardens ran pretty well before just running out of steam in the last half furlong and presumably he goes for the Eclipse next but the older 10f horses look a class above..

The other eye catcher was New Ground who was widest of all the whole way and didn’t settle. He also hung badly on the camber but still made up ground. Doubt he’ll be aimed at the Leger but a soft ground Arc might be up his alley.

Field Of Gold has only edged out a fraction (6/5 from 5/6 at best); bookies know he'd beat Ruling Court in the SJP unless the heavens open. If so, neither would win, I think; Henri Matisse would be the main beneficiary on inclement weather.

But, no advantage to be gained backing now given the skinny prices eg either could do a Kyprios or the weather could intervene. The prices for The Eclipse are not generous either. It's difficult to string along a few trebles for Royal Ascot, Sandown, The Curragh (near impossible given the possible switcheroo by AOB), Juddmonte Int and King George (Kempton).

tennesee stud for me  as well for leger

tennesee stud for me  as well for leger

Thanks for your views Uncle New Ground has been penciled in for the German Derby along with Lazy Griff.

The thing is Impossible some races aren’t priced up, so that makes it double difficult as my other fancies are shortening and the ones not priced will go off short.

Delashay
Why didn’t you fancy it either Kincsem? Was it purely an odds thing?

I think I have had only three bets since Betfair tried to defraud me of Euro 200 I had given them just before the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
It took 255 days to get my money back. My choice, Torquator Tasso, had been available at odds averaging 120s.

My usual way to pick a horse in a big race is to give it 3,2,1 points for speed, distance, pedigree, ground. (3 for best)
I get a short list of possibles and go into them in detail. I did not do that here.
The two favourites would not stay so I looked for a certain stayer with some form and a big price.
I have little interest in short priced horses. Motto - "When I win I want to get paid" (paid big)

I get that Kincsem but Lambourn was 10/1 or 12/1  -  was it not big enough? Was tipped loads yesterday and shortened more because of the withdrawal of Ruling Court.

Glad that you got your money back, that’s unbelievable but not surprising!  Torquator must still hurt. Only recall two 50/1 winners.

I was a bit doubtful that Lambourn would stay as well as Lazy Griff.
Lambourn's dam Gossamer Wings ran 14 times: 1x7f; 5x6f; 8x5f
The damsire was 18th in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby but won at 1 1/8
The second dam ran mostly at a mile.

I do not care much for tipped horses.
A tipped horse is a horse that is overbet and the odds are lower that the chance.
The people who are tipping are not betting.
There is groupthink - they recommend what everyone expects them to recommend.

People are complaining about the ride Ryan Moore gave Delacroix.
Delacroix's sire Dubawi was a miler and is not a sire of middle-distance horses.
Delacroix's dam Tepin was a miler.

That is much the same as bloodstock agents who buy horses with owners money.
They risk nothing and get a commission so the more they spend the more they make.

New Ground ran a very good race for 4th from a bad draw.
He did not settle but was still closing at the finish.

The inbreeding in his ancestors is different from most

Sadler's Wells (sire) producing two daughters
Buckpasser (sire) producing two daughters
Shirley Heights (sire) producing a son and daughter
Lyphard (sire) producing a son and daughter
High Line (sire) producing two daughters

The female offspring (daughters) are needed

In most modern pedigrees what you find is an excess (two or more sons = slow runner) of duplicated sire ancestors

I backed Lambourn (coincidentally a horsey town) at 18 here for £3. Then lay him for 16. I did not back him when he showed the rest a clean pair of heels at the start.

Looking back I should have lay Delacroix in-running after 3f. He'd no chance after being shuffled back trying to get a better position from an awkward draw.

I'm happy for Lordan. He showed enterprise and rode others to sleep. But, I do think Lambourn is an above average Derby winner. I'm very surprised he's 4/5 for the Irish equivalent. I've a feeling he might not turn up either; Coolmore will try to win with one of their other Epsom charges eg Delacroix or The Lion In Winter. Either winning = massive stud fee boost.

AOB has hinted Lambourn is most likely The Curragh bound; Delacroix will be down in trip to 10f; The Lion In Winter is a miler.

Thanks for explaining Kincsem and the info re: breeding. I’m surprised you felt that Lambourn wouldn’t stay. He was one that I was certain would.

They were very confident about New Ground getting the trip because of his pedigree. I can’t fathom why he pulls so hard, first time out this year behind Caulificar he settled beautifully. Yesterday he was even getting the hurry up from the car tracking them all down! Thought the jock should have got off and walked him.
If you re read the interview with his trainer he mentioned the stamina doubts about Delacroix, eg having Tepin in there.

You have layer him as you said you would Impossible before the start.

I asked if a sleight of hand had been played on us all (on the outside)  and yes I believe that it was via the flip flopping and market drifts and moves between Delacroix and the Lion In Winter.

I don’t believe one bit that either was ever truly fancied by those on the inside.

When O’Biden led him in the parade that was also a sign. A big one. Never seen that.

As for Lordan impossible he showed no initiative, he just did what he was told. He cowered out from trying to win the oaks the day before. That was Moore’s and the script almost didn’t play out as expected. Any other jockey would have tried more and not gone so quick to set it up for a string stayer.

The derby was a thanks for all the work he’s done and they were assisted by the bias for front runners.

As pointed out by a couple - Moore hasn’t ridden many of their Derby winners, the public were played big time.

Jun 8, 2025 -- 3:36PM, impossible123 wrote:

AOB has hinted Lambourn is most likely The Curragh bound; Delacroix will be down in trip to 10f; The Lion In Winter is a miler.

Where does all that come from Impossible?

I hinted on here that the lion might be a miler after the comments made at the Dante by O’Biden saying a drop back to ten furlongs (despite having just ran over the distance) wouldn’t be out of the possibility.
He was at it again yesterday re: the Lion at the Dante, did anyone see him trying to tell Rishi that he didn’t pull??!?!!
He was keen to say no he was a little fresh but he settled and wasn’t over racing, both were used as excuses after when he tried to say without the minor interference that he’d of been a good third!
And that’s why he O’Biden for me - doesn’t know what he’s saying! And yes I do listen!

Someone I was watching the derby with asked if New Groynd had been broken in! [:happy:

I could see their point and surely he needs a different bit as that one he didn’t like.

There’s a massive engine in there if only it could be harnessed.

'Delashay', it was in ATR and Sporting Life. AOB: "I suppose we learned that Colin's horse could be a miler - was probably half a mile out of his ground - and I suppose it's very possible Ryan's horse is a mile and a quarter horse...."

I'm waiting to see if Pride Of Aras (14/1) and possibly Ruling Court (16/1, if bypassing SJP) would go for the Irish Derby on 29th June.

Jun 8, 2025 -- 4:28PM, impossible123 wrote:

'Delashay', it was in ATR and Sporting Life. AOB: "I suppose we learned that Colin's horse could be a miler - was probably half a mile out of his ground - and I suppose it's very possible Ryan's horse is a mile and a quarter horse...."I'm waiting to see if Pride Of Aras (14/1) and possibly Ruling Court (16/1, if bypassing SJP) would go for the Irish Derby on 29th June.

That is really quite hilarious!

Thank you Impossible.

Genius you have to say no. Chief hoodwinker yes!

So it all pans out that the conspiracy theories weren’t so far fetched!

the exchange betting in the last week or so on the derby with obriens horse has been shocking, this is one post 
ut up last week on horse racing thread.         

  delacroix drifted to around 8/1 on here last week , and lambourn im 90% certain was around 40s

I don’t study the betting John but I’d not like to hear the word genius for either Comb over or pasty face!

I don’t disbelieve it for one second. Neither can I give any credit to jobs worth for winning a Derby after the public was rope a doped by the bs that comes with these.

There’s a saying it’s just not cricket and there’s a right and wrong way of doing things. That’s not the way true sportsmen behave.

You got the best, prove it without all the hoodwinking .

Be like Floyd Money Mayweather say you’re the best and take them all on.

agree , they really have spoilt the wonderful racing from the 70s that i fell in love with ,    oh yes theyve won so man y derbies but francesca fair play said yesterday, theyve had 101 bloody runners ,

The winner could have been backed - all the evidence was there eg money, form and stamina. What very few had not contemplated was the adverse draws of the major players; the withdrawal of Ruling Court; the capitulation of Delacroix so early in the race; below par run of Pride Of Aras; the early pace adopted by the winner.

But, I do not think it was an above average Derby winner.

The winner looked a boat at Chester you were backing the Lion thinking he’d come on. Delacroix was a NON TRYER!

I’ll say it.

He was alongside New Ground with T Stud on the rail, there was no bump and he moved behind NG - THEY both ran on he didn’t AT all it was far too early to capitulate!

Was never there trying and no one will openly say that.

personally i think he might be very good, a generous maybe , but we need these horses running in the irish derby, king george etc ,  it was great when derby winners were taking on the best older horses in the kg , but again coolmore has imo destroyed the king george , and theyve made a mockery of  the guineas treating it as a prep run, classic races should be the majors of the sport ,

Makes a mockery of our great race.

John you back non runner after nonrunner I wish you luck with that one.

Wink wink

Pride of Harris won a duff Dante was hard fit for it. You were warned.

actually ive backed another non runner, KRYPIOS IN NEXT WEEK GOLD CUP,   BUT IM HAMMERING EVERYTHING ON LAKE VICTORIA IN THE CORONATION STAKES , love royal ascot

Don’t back Lambourn for the Leger, they have Puppet Master.

And more games to play….

What happened to Damysus. Gosden's horse ran well in the Dante, 12s last matched here ante post, 26 on the day of the race...

It was like watching Serpentine again. So happy got Lordan.

Paul I hope you played off on the good odds you got for Damysus and I’m glad you enjoyed the thread. Tried to bring some life back here. I enjoyed all those that engaged.

Damysus , quite excited pre start . It looked like a decent crossover place was being aimed at , but got stuck 3 wide pulling like a train = Race over . If you watch the first race , that strip of ground on the inside was the place to be , Spiritual hardly left a print . Easy in hidsight mind .

That was odd that he did pull as hadn’t before, the occasion maybe and good spot re the ground. I liked Damysus but not at 10’s and with the Dante doubts it felt short again.
I wasn’t as you’ll know going to have a bet in the race but got sucked in by TS who was over priced and the supp of New Ground who was my dark horse for the Jockey Club.
Because he hadn’t won this year I expected him to be big big odds for that.

The trainer only has 60 horses but his strike record is good and his father passed recently. I felt that he’d been given a good one because maybe of his father’s ill health. Like Frankel and Cecil. His dad was. If in French racing from what I gather.

Disappointed that they’ll go for the German Derby potentially, I’d recommend anyone with a recording to watch past the line in the Derby, the horse couldn’t be pulled up and was still pulling for its head after a mile and half! Unbelievable!

* his dad was big in french racing (and they paid tribute to him.)

Angela do you want to see Ruling Court at the SJP or in the Irish Derby? Did you see his stamina a weakness for Epsom having gotten great odds ap and after watching the Guineas.

The jury is still out on him regarding stamina.

I remember saying to Figis who said that the guineas was slow that he must be some horse to be a derby prospect but able to out speed Field OF Gold over a mile.

A lot of people seem to have had the Lion his superior all after that one meeting at two. We all know horses improve and go back.
Seems like there’s a lot of myth attached to the Lion in Winter all because of that one run, yes he broke the track record that day.

But Henri Mattisse broke the record for the French 2000 this year and that form has been franked already at group 1 level.


Unless he’s rerouted I expect a great finish in the SJP but worry about his stamina over that mile.
However Katherine Ford on guineas day said he’s a great big powerfully built colt and was suitably impressed. If only we had the body weights from two to three to see how much he’s strengthened….

There is nothing strange about the result inasmuch as if a horse runs, they all have a chance of winning. (Even the perfectionists AOB and Ryan Moore can't be perfect forecasters.)

The imponderables of stamina for the trip for a 3 year old in June and the possible effect of watering followed by rain will always substantially increase the hazard in forecasting and seemingly making fools of all of us, no matter how experienced we may be.The reality is that there was no standout horse in the race before the event, nothing that warranted a major stake in my opinion, and in the outcome no way of knowing that more than a few fancied horses would run inexplicably badly. Six of the first eight had SP's of 28/1 or over which must be some kind of record.

The times and form suggest that this was a sub-standard Derby and despite the rain that fell, I don''t believe that the rain contributed enormously to that being the case.I say that because the comparison with the Oaks shows a difference of just 0.41 secs despite new ground in use. I will not be putting Lambourn on my Arc possibles unless the conditions come up very softat Longchamp, and even then it would take a large uplift in his form beforehand for me to consider him a potential Arc winner.

Damysus was injured in the stall, Mr Gosden has indicated; Pride Of Aras did not like Epsom, and could go for the Irish Derby against Lambourn.