Juddmonte International

State Of Rest is entered in France,thought he might turn up
for this.Be a shame if thats the case with the prize money
on offer.
Native Trail,I read was going to drop back to the mile after
being btn in the Eclipse.Must be a change of plan.

Alenquer must be unlikely too unless there is rain

8 left in atm.
Above 4 aswell as
Point Lonsdale
High Definition
Sir Busker
Dubai Honour.

PRIZE MONEY
1st:
£567,100.00
2nd:
£215,000.00
3rd:
£107,600.00
4th:
£53,600.00
5th:
£26,900.00
6th:
£13,500.00
.
4 Runners, 5/6 Maybe. Sir Busker could win £53k for turning up.

7 run with only Point Lonsdale a N/R.

Baaeed still looks different class but most horses (apart from Frankel) have a bad run at some point. This is his fourth run in 3 months so if he is ever going to be vulnerable, this is it.

I think Sageform makes a good point. We can never be sure if a horse will stay the trip until it tries it but personally I see no obvious reason why Baaeed shouldn't stay and wouldn't oppose him on that score, although I'm sure it will be the go to excuse if he is beaten. By my reckoning Baaeed ran his career peak speed figure in the Lockinge, was only 1lb below that at Ascot and a further 1lb below that last time at Newmarket. So he's run top class figures within a 2lb range three times on the spin. Looking back I can't find a horse that achieved this four times on the trot, and that includes the mighty Frankel. Doesn't mean it can't be done and Baaeed could drop a fair few pounds and still win depending on the others running their best or not, but in my view he could be vulnerable next time more than ever.

I actually believe that if all the runners repeated their best form that Mishriff would win narrowly. It is fine margins but I rate Mishriff's best performances a touch better than Baaeed's, and while I expect Baaeed to stay this trip I don't see him improving for it. I backed Mishriff on his last two starts. He should've won the Eclipse and I expected him to take a leap forward from that at Ascot. The race didn't pan out well for him and while there may be valid excuses for that poor effort I was still disappointed. I am reluctantly going to swerve him this time, so he'll probably win as easily as last year

Baaeed is really going to need to bomb for the likes of Alenquer, High Definition, Dubai Honour, or the admirable Sir Busker to pass him. Could happen but not something I want to bet on. That leaves Native Trail. He didn't improve in the Guineas from his 2yo best, so it hasn't been a surprise to see his form regress recently. The Guineas form has taken a few knocks and while I never rated it especially highly I still think that on the day it was an up to par renewal. The question is whether NT is in terminal decline or if he can ever return to his earlier form. Unfortunately I don't know the answer, but I do know that if he can then the 7lbs wfa would make him very competitive even if Baaeed is somewhere near his best. So a lot of ifs and buts, and even though NT's prospects remain far more hopeful than confident I'll be having a dabble at the kind of price he is on the exchanges.

Baaeed has'nt exactly been hard pushed in his races this
season.Native Trail's run more times and had harder races.

Fast races normally still take something out of a horse whether they appear to have had an easy race or not. There seems to be a general assumption in the media that if Crowley really got down to work the horse would suddenly find lengths to spare, but, for me, when a horse keeps running similar figures it usually means that's as good as it is. Also I've lost count of the times when Crowley has appeared to be cruising on the bridle only for his horse to find less than expected. Some jockeys, for instance Pat Eddery in years gone by, have the riding style that can make horses look like they're winning with the minimum of effort. No slur on Ryan Moore but if he'd been riding Baaeed the style of win wouldn't have appeared quite as impressive.

Native Trail's latest two efforts were below his previous best, even when winning at the Curragh. Those runs won't have bottomed him, but it's possible that he's permanently regressed. Anyway, obviously there are more negatives about NT than Baaeed, that's why one is best price 4/9 and the other available at over 10/1.

Figgis. 

Your argument seems to me that you expect Baaeed to win , but if he doesn't Native Trail, at the prices, is a better bet than Mishriff.

If I'm right, as an alternative or additionally, you should consider playing Native Trail in the w/o the favourite market. He will be about 3.5 to 4.0 with Mishriff odds-on, possibly as low as 1.7. You will be more likely to collect than backing NT in the with favourite market.

Just a thought.

Your argument seems to me that you expect Baaeed to win , but if he doesn't Native Trail, at the prices, is a better bet than Mishriff

Sandown, yes that sums it up. Gun to my head of course I would choose Baaeed as the most likely winner. I'm also not one of those punters who thinks any odds on shot should be opposed, but I think there are enough reasons here to think Baaeed shouldn't really be as short as a 4/9 chance, or at least there's no value in that price.

Thanks for the suggestion as it wasn't something I'd considered here. If I was confident about NT running his race then I would definitely play the race that way. However, in light of his latest two runs (which I consider to be below his best even if other people don't) I can't say I'd be surprised if he put up a no show. Therefore I'm thinking just take the biggest price and hope for the best, but I may reconsider your angle, cheers. How do you see it?

Appleby said after the Eclipse that NT was outstayed and he would be going back to a mile for the Marois. Then plans changed when Coroebus missed Goodwood with a setback and was rerouted to France with NT being taken out.

NT is only being targetted at 10f races to avoid running in the same races as his stablemate. he's a miler and 10f is not his optimum trip and I give him little chance.

At the prices Baaeed is way too short so Mishriff for me.

Figgis.

If I were purely a layer, which I'm not, at the prices, I would have to take Baaeed on as its poor value, but I would expect him to win.

I think that if I play, it will be to take Mishriff on in the w/o fav market. It's much the same as backing NT but I would  have the others running for me too.

I probably won't play at all, though, as there will be better bets elsewhere at York.

Sandown, agreed it's not exactly a maximum bet vehicle. Although there will be some out there who see Baaed as exactly that, but if they've followed him this year at level stakes then a defeat tomorrow will turn profit into loss. If this wasn't a top race then I probably wouldn't play, so there's an argument that this should be no different. However, I find that the extra thought that goes into such an event, more knowledge of the field, etc, makes it worth a punt.

Another tricky group 1 at the distance this season, with horses going abroad giving mixed results. This is yet another flimsy affair betting wise with lots with plenty to prove except baeed, he continues to improve. I think he’s looked lazy in his last 2 starts, I can only think this is due to training him to go up in distance. He ran at good wood like a horse trained to go up in distance. We will see but I think he is going to devour distance and become a better colt. I still think if all goes well he could end in the arc.

Of the others mishriff is clearly second best, he ran like this race was the aim at ascot but really he did no running and continues to become a disappointing type. You should never be one take the trainer on and I expect him to run well here and I’ve always harboured on the belief he is a better colt left handed, it wouldn’t surprise me if some headgear is used before the year is out. He has now put in 4 sub standard runs and you have to think his best is behind him.

Native trail is a nice horse and I didn’t really buy his last run in regards to not staying, I just think it may have come quickly after a tough run in the Irish guineas. He really is the only horse who you’d think could step up, I have a feeling it maybe as a 4 year old. He isn’t a type I’m drawn to as he is more workmanlike than flashy. I don’t know why as he was a hardy 2 year old but he looks like he needs time. Wednesday will tell us more but I’m not feeling like he is about to run big.

Alenqueur didn’t back up his run in Ireland I can see him running better. I didn’t get making the running with him last time. He is a reliable type and any rain might make competitive to get in the money. He is certainly a better 4 year old than he was at 3.

The one I quite like to make the 3 is high definition, he ran the best race at the Curragh yet was nailed close home, it was a big effort at a distance I think is better for him than a 1m4f and can see him loose on the lead.

A trappy affair betting wise and I see baeed really stepping forward at the distance and as many think he is to short, I actually thought he was overpriced but I make him around 3 on against these horses, however I am not a short player so he makes no appeal for me but see him winning comfortably. I’m hoping high definition can chase him home but the rest of the field are closely matched ability wise imo

Native trail wins this imo . baaeed will have to beat a new course , new distance and a little break , his target is surely the champion stakes , a poor run by his standards winning workmanlike  at 1-6 on lto . Its a fools game to slate anyones opinions but . I must with high definition . current form neg , regressive , too many runs , 2-11 wins in total , 0-4 over the distance , no york experience , 0-4 in grp 1s . just the facts harry

I can't have the Native Trail did'nt stay @Sandown.
Probably around 3ft from winning the race.
I do think that the 3yr old colts might not be as
good as first thought though.Mishriff with a clear run
would more than likely won the Eclipse.That form could
well turn out to be not the strongest anyway,a blanket
covered the 1st 4 home.Can't see past Baaeed in this,
especially if the trip improves him.

gpz631615 Aug 22 22:32Joined: 28 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 1,269 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
Native trail wins this imo . baaeed will have to beat a new course , new distance and a little break , his target is surely the champion stakes , a poor run by his standards winning workmanlike  at 1-6 on lto . Its a fools game to slate anyones opinions but .

gpz: yer canna put up reasons for a hoss to get beat then choose another where 2 out of 3 factors also apply shirley.
Its a new course and an even bigger break for Native Trail.

That said I think he is way overpriced @13.0 here.

I took issue with some points raised in a Post article yesterday concerning Coroebus and Inspiral, but at the end of the day the writer's selection won and mine was stuffed.

Have to say I like many of the points he makes when writing about the International

https://www.racingpost.com/news/insight/im-taking-on-baaeed-and-heres-why-this-horse-can-give-him-a-proper-fight/572721

'The general belief with Baaeed is that we haven't seen what he is really capable of as he saves something for himself and 'only does just enough', but I rarely buy that sort of nonsense. It's opinion rather than fact, and we'll only know it is true for sure if a horse 'idles' – another word loved by those who think horses are better than they are – and then pulls out more when challenged again.

Baaeed won races last season by four lengths, six and a half, and seven and a half, so it's only a recent thing, and if you really think he could have found another three lengths on Palace Pier last year if something had gone that far ahead you want your head tested'.

I couldn't agree more.

baaeed is very short and  the tv media  drooling and hyping  with this best horse in the world thing  tommorow he will probably go even shorter ,mishriff pished up in this last year its his optimum trip and it looks to me as this has been his number one target all season he looked  "unlucky"  in the eclipse and the trip was too far in the king george .
baaeed obviously gonna be hard to beat but there are some reasons for taking him on not least the trip ,yes i know his breeding suggests he will get the trip but untill they prove it i wouldnt want to take a short price to find out lets not forget he is taking on top class horses here just too short imo.
at the prices native trail looks the one to be on win bet and in the w/o fav market on here  .a dewhurst  and irish gns winner  only btn 1/2 length in the eclipse this course may suit better and just 7 pound to find with the fav on official ratings and gets the 3yo allowance .

taking on top class horses here  at a trip he is not proven over ^^^^^

I agree that Baaeed has been overhyped on what he has done - he only just beat Palace Pier lastyear although PP was a top class horse. He needs to win this comfortably to justify his reputation.

On breeding or on ability Baaeed is bad value over this new trip. I think 2/5 is barmy.

Baaed's breeding is the least concerning aspect - he's full brother to a Coronation Cup winner and Sea the Stars generally gets middle-distance horses

I think Baaeed is priced correctly for this.
People say that the best horse he has faced so far is Palace Pier and that was his least impressive performance.  But that came on the back of 6 runs in just 14 weeks.
He has looked impressive every run this year and the step up in trip should be no problem for him on breeding.

Mishriff has looked very ordinary this season. He was a close 2nd in the Eclipse, but you could have thrown a blanket over the front 4 after a very steadily run race. Either side of that his performances have been poor.

I think we will see Baaeed win comfortably tomorrow.

Of course Baaeed is the most likely winner but any backer is expecting him to be at least as good,  not worse, over 10f, which has to be a possibility.
In the end its all about price . Baaeed is priced to win 7 races out of 10, I make his chance 6 out of 10. If they catch a thunderstorm then that's an extra load of uncertainty.

No bet is an easy decision.

Baaeed is priced to win 7 races out of 10, I make his chance 6 out of 10

Sandown I don’t  understand this comment, very ambiguous imo

Price is 2/5, he thinks he's a 4/6 shot,
I'd imagine.

Sandown makes him a 1/2 shot not the current 2/5

No sandown makes him 3/5. I don’t get the 7 of 10 which is 3 on? Which he isn’t

In fact 2/7

2/5 is a 71% chance of winning.
1/3 ia a 75% chance of winning.
2/7 is a 78% chance of winning.

could it be that mishriff is starting to think about it rather than 100% going through with it he hd a pretty tough exp in the desert sand in riyahhd and finished last btn miles then the sluggish starts in the eclipse and king george hope i am wrong ,johhny g seems happy with him so i am probably well wide of the mark.

That is my thinking too Foyles

Interesting reactions to what I thought I was making simple to understand. At the time of posting, Baaeed was 1.43 on BF which is 70%.  In old money that is 3/7 or 1/2.33.

My estimate of his chances is 57% (rounded to 60% for simplicity) or 1.7 (1.67 for 60%) or 4/6 approx in old money.

Can't see what is ambiguous Harry C. (NB 1/3 on is 75% )

Geoff m . I reckon that native trail was let down after the Irish guineas to aid him settling in a slower race than is the norm for him and he went mighty close , I think he will be suited by York as his action looks that way to my opinion . While you consider the 46 day break as a let down , I look at it as a build up to a peak  and baaeeds 21 day break as a let down to try to help him stay , with  a rest in mind to peak for the champion stakes . Baaeed has never looked like he may want left .You said NT  is over-priced and for that reason alone is a worthy bet given  most students think he's the biggest danger .

I thought you meant 4/6 sandown tbh. Glad you cleared that up thanks. You must be having a good bet on something to make him that price with the edge you have on your own book

HC. It's easier to work with percentages and decimal odds these days rather than fractions when everything is now digitalised. Fractional odds were used in the past by bookies because it helped them but it is just too liable to lead to errors now.

No, I'm not having a bet. let alone a big bet on the race as it stands. It's a bit difficult to explain why but essentially its down to the fact that of the front 3, only NT looks any value but not enough to tempt me as the figures are not robust enough to allow for assessment errors. Put another way,a surprise is not out of the question. Have we all forgotten the outcome of the KG just a few weeks ago when because of a overly fast pace the horses finished in virtually reverse betting order?

I might throw a few quid at the 3 outsiders given that have a better chance than their odds imply and one of them could easily touch an in-running price that covers my stake.

You think Baaeed's a 4/6 shot,you can lay him here @4/9.
What's not value there then?

Baaeed is rated the best horse in the world. I don't know about the world but I agree that in Europe he has put up the best performance of the season when winning the Lockinge. However the mile division is notably weak, and the figure he put up was no better than what is usually achieved by the best middle distance horses in most seasons. His reputation has snowballed due to him remaining unbeaten rather than any spectacular performance.

Regarding pricing up the event, I find it a difficult race to price up in the usual fashion as I have doubts about the best 3 runners. I don't know if Baaeed can produce 4 peak speed figures on the spin. True, he has won all his races pretty comfortably, but I've seen loads of horses do the same and still fail to keep running to the same level. Look how Golden Horn performed in this race a few years ago. Maybe Baaeed is different, but I'm a percentage player rather than betting on possible exceptions. I think his level will drop somewhat today, but whether it'll be enough to be beaten by today's opponents is impossible to say.

I think Mishriff is a slightly better horse overall. A peak Mishriff beats a peak Baaeed, but that's based on Mishriff last season and even though a repeat win has been his main target there has to be a major doubt looking at the level he's been running to this year. Native Trail is a horse that, in my view, needs to find his earlier Guineas form, much in the same way Rodrigo De Triano did in this race many years ago. So even though I think Baaeed is vulnerable and too short, given the doubts about his main opposition, I'd rather play a big price than lay him for a smaller profit. As Sandown says, there might even be a surprise result, but Baaeed will need to regress well over a stone for the others to figure.

I think there are better 4/9 shots than Baaeed. Think a small bet on Native Trail is my play.
Good luck all

RP saying 12 of 19 odds-on shots beaten in this race

he may be rated the best horse in the world but that is at a mile wether he is the best at 10f we will see but to my eye palace pier ,real world and modern games were gaining on him at the finish  could be  he  was idling or easing off we shall see untill then in my eye theres a stamina doubt at this trip despite the breeding .if he wins then i will take it on the chin.

I think Mishriff is a slightly better horse overall. A peak Mishriff beats a peak Baaeed

Very debatable figgis. When horses run at the same distance I agree but I think this horses figure has been hiding behind the fact he’s been running over a mile and he’ll step forward for the step up. I agree with some who say he is a little like his sire, who never won to far but always travelled into a race. We will see today. Mishriff has become a disappointing horse, yes he could come back but without headgear I see a similar outcome, although I’ve always thought he is a better horse this way round although last years king George says otherwise. I haven’t rated any horses particularly highly from the eclipse, although I do think the winner is very good.

I’ve just played a little on the forecast with high definition and a little in the place markets although he needs to step up himself

Wow that was great to watch

Brilliant - unlikely to be a better performance since season by some margin.

*this season

10/10,a PROPER GP1 horse.

A massively impressive visual performance. Even more so considering it was his 4th fast run Gp1 on the spin. I was initially thinking that yes that looked to be in Frankel territory, and maybe it was. That said, before the race I had Sir Busker and Dubai Honour 19lbs (about 9.5 lengths on my scale) behind Baaheed. So have they both improved? Dubai Honour as a 4yo possibly so, but seems less likely with the 6yo Sir Busker. Maybe he just ran the race of his life. Whatever, happy to give Baaeed extra credit for repeating high level performances time and again.

Had a phone call just before the off to tell me my sisters operation to remove a tumor from her brain was successful.  Then Baaeed puts in a magical performance.  Good to be alive.

Brandy

Brandy really pleased to here that, hope She is ok pal

Thanks mate. Knew you would want to know.

She’s as tough as it gets, hopefully be ok

Tricky race to put a figure on, racing post giving baeed 138 which seems high

proximity of Sir Busker is problematic - it quite often happens that very long shots can run into a place in a very fast run race by waiting out the back and effectively running a more even pace than some of the others.

as suspected Native Trail didn't stay and like Coroebus could well have plateaued with his G1 winning days behind him.

Mishriff's performance would have been good enough to win this race most years.

it quite often happens that very long shots can run into a place in a very fast run race by waiting out the back and effectively running a more even pace than some of the others.

This is definitely true and possibly what happened here. Will see how the times stack up. It was, at the very least, an up to par time performance, with the ground being well watered compared to last year.

Mishriff's performance would have been good enough to win this race most years

I'm not entirely convinced about that at this stage. As I would expect an on song Mishriff (or any really top class 10f performer) to have more than 2.5 lengths to spare over Sir Busker and Dubai Honour, but, as acknowledged, possibly it was just how the race was run.

Will see how the times stack up

Times today were slow - but the International was closer to standard than the 5f sprints and much closer than the Voltigeur. Looked like a very good time to me.

Incidentally in retrospect Sir Busker was a great price - C&D winner in a G2 last time. He and Dubai Honour ran almost the same race to the pound.

It's amazing sometimes how obvious these things are - afterwards

In retrospect Sir Busker was a great price - C&D winner last time out in a G2. He and Dubai Honour ran almost the same race to a pound.

Sometimes these things are so obvious - but only afterwards

135 at least that run.

That’s where I’m at penzance. Mishriff was unlucky really, almost had to make his own running which isn’t ideal for him. Still can’t really have him being the same as he was. Just nice to see a real top notcher as they are hard to come by these days. It just showed though for me anyway that he really was crying out for distance. It’s a shame he will highly unlikely aim at the arc as the race needs him tbh

Don't think the Arc has ever been on the agenda in fairness.
I'd like to see him run in France would generate plenty of
talk & excitement.
Lovely to see him put that field to the sword today.

Can't agree about Mishriff making his own running - he had a lead horse for all but the last 2f. Problem for him was there was a better horse than him in the race.

Once more the evidence builds that the middle distance 3yo colts are really poor. Native Trail was never in contention. the milers are a different proposition as we saw in Deauville.

There was a possible doubt  about trying a new trip. It's clear that far from being a problem it was a positive as Baaeed improved for the extra 2 furlongs. I still believe that prior to the race it was right to be cautious about that although the trainer was really confident. Happy to see a great performance without getting involved.138 RPR looks right (a new PB of +7 )

I think he should go for the Arc while at peak I have no doubts about him staying only soft would bother me a little come the hour. Tasso fans will be praying for rain and no doubt Sir Marks team will be hoping for good ground and Baaeed not turning up.

A triangle of choice

On final time performance alone, without manipulating a different allowance for the race I can't get Baaeed into the Frankel ballpark. The most obvious fit leaves Baaeed running to his Queen Anne Stakes figure, Sir Busker and Dubai Honour running bang on form, with Mishriff 1lb higher than his Eclipse second when he was stopped in his run, but a long way short of his best form last year. Others can rate him more highly, as we all have different methods.

What is most remarkable about the horse for me is how he has delivered a top class time performance race after race this year, in style and with no sign of any dip. I've seen many high class runners over the years but when they have racked up a winning streak there has always been a race or two where they had a fairly easy time off a slow pace, enabling them to keep more in reserve for another day. Most horses hit 2, maybe 3 genuine Gp1 speed figures then have some kind of a lull in performance.

I've heard it lots of times over the years that different horses hardly had a race when winning a fast run Gp1 and it's nearly always turned out to be nonsense, but it genuinely seems the case here as he runs almost to the pound every time. So maybe he could run even faster if he ever needed to. I would've liked to see him in a different season where he faced another proven Gp1 performer at the peak of its powers just to see how much more he's got. It's difficult to see that happening now with how things are looking currently.

he should go for the irish champion stakes and english champion and finally breeders cup mile..........i suspect connections will bore the pants off us and have only one more run - the english champion stakes and then stud...........great horse but it would have been great to see sea the stars, frnakel and baeed go to america and let the americans see our legends.........dancing brave and montjeu both failed there but i dont think these trio would.

Bran dead why on earth would you want to risk going to the breeders cup mile where the bend comes up quickly on likely fast going with a horse like this? I’d love to see him in the arc but yesterday proved how good he was plus I’m going to the champion stakes so quite fancy seeing the creature

There is little point in giving consideration to an Arc run or anywhere else other than Ascot for that matter. The owner and trainer have planned this horses route very early on and it looks set in stone. In any event, stepping up to 12f in the autumn is an entirely different event where stamina is at least as important as speed. Horses for courses can mean more than just location. He would almost certainly have to be let down and brought back up, given a 12f prep,  which given the time frame would be quite a challenge.

I do hope they run in the Arc,we seem to have a Champion miler who looks better going up in trip, racing fans are screaming for Baaeed to run in the Arc!

It has been said that the planning t0 win the Epsom Derby starts 12 months before Epsom. The planning to win an Arc certainly starts in the Spring. The Arc is never won as an after-thought. Dancing Brave won the Arc and was sent to a different time zone to win a Breeders cup as an after-thought (?) and bombed. Re-hydration problem according to Harwood in a recent interview. Whatever the public wants will be and should be ignored and rightly so.

Hi Sandown, For me not to have a go would be sad, this horse can prove himself one of the most versatile in racing history, what a opportunity?

The planning to win an Arc certainly starts in the Spring. The Arc is never won as an after-thought

it would not be an afterthought - they plan to get him race-fit for a middle-distance race in October - it would just be the Arc rather than the Champion Stakes. Seriously doubt that the training regime would be any different

timing of the Arc would probably be better - 3 weeks less of a gap between races. Shadwell's Sakhee went from the International to the Arc and romped home at Longchamp

I suppose the great thing for shadell and haggis is they can basically monitor the going. It could be sent at longchamp you never know

Cecil never entertained the Arc thought for Frankel so why should Haggis?

Sakhee was just beaten in the Derby by Sinndar and had several runs over 10f to acclimatise to 12f, not 9 runs over 8f and 1 over 10f beforehand. Apart from both appearing at York and owned by Shadwell  I don't see the comparison.

Won't run in the Arc Haggis is not the type to be bossed around by the media and public opinion

Cecil never entertained the Arc thought for Frankel so why should Haggis?

because Shadwell racing manager Angus Gold was talking about the Arc after Goodwood - and said it would depend on the showing at York. I haven't seen anyone say that performance yesterday showed the limit of his stamina.

Jim Crowley was interviewed after the race and was very diplomatic but you can bet your life he would want to Baaeed to go for the Arc

they plan to get him race-fit for a middle-distance race in October - it would just be the Arc rather than the Champion Stakes.

Yes there would seem nothing in the timescale that would hinder an attempt. So that leaves training for the distance. He wouldn't be trained over the actual distance, so all it would be normally is getting a horse to race relaxed enough for the extra 2f in store. Surely that doesn't apply with this horse? Basically he'll either stay or he won't and I see nothing around that could beat the level he's been running to all season.

Long time to the Arc,they could still change their minds.
Doubt it though.

If the forecast for Ascot was bottomless they might but if it is decent ground the Champion Stakes is the obvious choice. The Arc can have 20 runners and the draw can put you right out of contention regardless of ability.

Draw not a problem really especially when you got pace enough to go where you want, the Japanese horse will probably go early Baaeed can do it both ways, I hope they see it that way.

Haggas sees to have opened the door just a crack

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/william-haggas-reveals-the-arc-and-irish-champion-will-be-considered-for-baaeed/574082

Haggas sees to have opened the door just a crack

It's why I'll bet on horses but not on people.

Don't bet against Vadeni going for the Arc either following that. On breeding its probably better suited to 12f than Baaeed

Going into the Eclipse I took a positive view of the PDJC form and Vadeni's chance there, but on reflection I don't think the French race was all that. After the event the Eclipse form looked poor and so did the time. I was prepared to excuse the time because of how the race was run, even though experience told me I was being generous. Looking at subsequent events it seems the Eclipse result and time was as poor as it first appeared, and that goes for the PDJC. I'd be against Vadeni in future.

On breeding its probably better suited to 12f than Baaeed

surprised you say that when he's by Churchill who was well beaten when he tried 10f

Baaeed's full brother won the Coronation Cup and STS has sired numerous top class 12f horses.

Baaeed looks nailed-on to stay IMO - Vadeni's trainer has been less than enthusiastic about going further than 10f

12f horses in the dam side though AT.

Either way the Eclipse was an incredibly messy race and it's impossible to rate it highly.

I think they will stick to their original plan with Baaeed and run him at Ascot.

The Arc this year is looking very ordinary at the moment. Baaeed aside it has been an average year for the flat horses.

My tongue was in firmly in my cheek AT. Surprised you didn't realise. That said Vadeni has a dosage profile with a better stamina index than Baaeed although his trainer isn't enthusiastic.

Oh,  and both sides of a pedigree play a part don't forget. Brandy is correct in what he said. It's all guesswork until they try unless you have access to the genetic analysis.

my first thought after the Jockey Club was Arc - it may be a case of the trainer playing down expectations but sending him to the Eclipse does seem like he believes it is a 10f horse

the wrap them up in cotton wool comments on here are hilarious. you dont need to plan a run for the arc 6 mths beforehand, especially for a horse as good as this one. if it was good or good to firm he would win......but soft, who knows. i would run him in the irish and english champion stakes defo. the way the horse won over 10f, he deserves another few runs over that distance. one race the greats used to run in was the japan cup. singspiel and pilsudski both ran there and won. the ground is usually good. that would be interesting. we are robbed of our best horses not running in these type of races. frankel and sea the stars never went outside europe. i dont like the patronising comments on here about the breeders cup. race authorities put on these races with massive prize money and we need to support them. i will probably get the same here re japan and hong kong. the prize money in these races puts ours to shame. the arc is the only race in europe which has that type of prize money, but the ground is usually soft or worse. thats a problem. soft doesnt happen that often in japan. its a massive racecourse with gradual turns and a big wide open 3f straight............imagine how great it would be to get up at 7am to watch baeed in the japan cup.............

Each to their own. After 60 years of watching GB racing, I see our best races as still being the ones I would run a good horse in. I might watch some Irish novice and maiden races to scout a few bets for Cheltenham or for Group races here and I like the Longchamp Vermeille meeting and the Arc but I very rarely watch anything else outside GB.