Juddmonte International

State Of Rest is entered in France,thought he might turn up
for this.Be a shame if thats the case with the prize money
on offer.
Native Trail,I read was going to drop back to the mile after
being btn in the Eclipse.Must be a change of plan.

8 left in atm.
Above 4 aswell as
Point Lonsdale
High Definition
Sir Busker
Dubai Honour.

7 run with only Point Lonsdale a N/R.

I think Sageform makes a good point. We can never be sure if a horse will stay the trip until it tries it but personally I see no obvious reason why Baaeed shouldn't stay and wouldn't oppose him on that score, although I'm sure it will be the go to excuse if he is beaten. By my reckoning Baaeed ran his career peak speed figure in the Lockinge, was only 1lb below that at Ascot and a further 1lb below that last time at Newmarket. So he's run top class figures within a 2lb range three times on the spin. Looking back I can't find a horse that achieved this four times on the trot, and that includes the mighty Frankel. Doesn't mean it can't be done and Baaeed could drop a fair few pounds and still win depending on the others running their best or not, but in my view he could be vulnerable next time more than ever.

I actually believe that if all the runners repeated their best form that Mishriff would win narrowly. It is fine margins but I rate Mishriff's best performances a touch better than Baaeed's, and while I expect Baaeed to stay this trip I don't see him improving for it. I backed Mishriff on his last two starts. He should've won the Eclipse and I expected him to take a leap forward from that at Ascot. The race didn't pan out well for him and while there may be valid excuses for that poor effort I was still disappointed. I am reluctantly going to swerve him this time, so he'll probably win as easily as last year

Baaeed is really going to need to bomb for the likes of Alenquer, High Definition, Dubai Honour, or the admirable Sir Busker to pass him. Could happen but not something I want to bet on. That leaves Native Trail. He didn't improve in the Guineas from his 2yo best, so it hasn't been a surprise to see his form regress recently. The Guineas form has taken a few knocks and while I never rated it especially highly I still think that on the day it was an up to par renewal. The question is whether NT is in terminal decline or if he can ever return to his earlier form. Unfortunately I don't know the answer, but I do know that if he can then the 7lbs wfa would make him very competitive even if Baaeed is somewhere near his best. So a lot of ifs and buts, and even though NT's prospects remain far more hopeful than confident I'll be having a dabble at the kind of price he is on the exchanges.

Fast races normally still take something out of a horse whether they appear to have had an easy race or not. There seems to be a general assumption in the media that if Crowley really got down to work the horse would suddenly find lengths to spare, but, for me, when a horse keeps running similar figures it usually means that's as good as it is. Also I've lost count of the times when Crowley has appeared to be cruising on the bridle only for his horse to find less than expected. Some jockeys, for instance Pat Eddery in years gone by, have the riding style that can make horses look like they're winning with the minimum of effort. No slur on Ryan Moore but if he'd been riding Baaeed the style of win wouldn't have appeared quite as impressive.

Native Trail's latest two efforts were below his previous best, even when winning at the Curragh. Those runs won't have bottomed him, but it's possible that he's permanently regressed. Anyway, obviously there are more negatives about NT than Baaeed, that's why one is best price 4/9 and the other available at over 10/1.

Your argument seems to me that you expect Baaeed to win , but if he doesn't Native Trail, at the prices, is a better bet than Mishriff

Sandown, yes that sums it up. Gun to my head of course I would choose Baaeed as the most likely winner. I'm also not one of those punters who thinks any odds on shot should be opposed, but I think there are enough reasons here to think Baaeed shouldn't really be as short as a 4/9 chance, or at least there's no value in that price.

Thanks for the suggestion as it wasn't something I'd considered here. If I was confident about NT running his race then I would definitely play the race that way. However, in light of his latest two runs (which I consider to be below his best even if other people don't) I can't say I'd be surprised if he put up a no show. Therefore I'm thinking just take the biggest price and hope for the best, but I may reconsider your angle, cheers. How do you see it?

Figgis.

If I were purely a layer, which I'm not, at the prices, I would have to take Baaeed on as its poor value, but I would expect him to win.

I think that if I play, it will be to take Mishriff on in the w/o fav market. It's much the same as backing NT but I would  have the others running for me too.

I probably won't play at all, though, as there will be better bets elsewhere at York.

Another tricky group 1 at the distance this season, with horses going abroad giving mixed results. This is yet another flimsy affair betting wise with lots with plenty to prove except baeed, he continues to improve. I think he’s looked lazy in his last 2 starts, I can only think this is due to training him to go up in distance. He ran at good wood like a horse trained to go up in distance. We will see but I think he is going to devour distance and become a better colt. I still think if all goes well he could end in the arc.

Of the others mishriff is clearly second best, he ran like this race was the aim at ascot but really he did no running and continues to become a disappointing type. You should never be one take the trainer on and I expect him to run well here and I’ve always harboured on the belief he is a better colt left handed, it wouldn’t surprise me if some headgear is used before the year is out. He has now put in 4 sub standard runs and you have to think his best is behind him.

Native trail is a nice horse and I didn’t really buy his last run in regards to not staying, I just think it may have come quickly after a tough run in the Irish guineas. He really is the only horse who you’d think could step up, I have a feeling it maybe as a 4 year old. He isn’t a type I’m drawn to as he is more workmanlike than flashy. I don’t know why as he was a hardy 2 year old but he looks like he needs time. Wednesday will tell us more but I’m not feeling like he is about to run big.

Alenqueur didn’t back up his run in Ireland I can see him running better. I didn’t get making the running with him last time. He is a reliable type and any rain might make competitive to get in the money. He is certainly a better 4 year old than he was at 3.

The one I quite like to make the 3 is high definition, he ran the best race at the Curragh yet was nailed close home, it was a big effort at a distance I think is better for him than a 1m4f and can see him loose on the lead.

A trappy affair betting wise and I see baeed really stepping forward at the distance and as many think he is to short, I actually thought he was overpriced but I make him around 3 on against these horses, however I am not a short player so he makes no appeal for me but see him winning comfortably. I’m hoping high definition can chase him home but the rest of the field are closely matched ability wise imo

I can't have the Native Trail did'nt stay @Sandown.
Probably around 3ft from winning the race.
I do think that the 3yr old colts might not be as
good as first thought though.Mishriff with a clear run
would more than likely won the Eclipse.That form could
well turn out to be not the strongest anyway,a blanket
covered the 1st 4 home.Can't see past Baaeed in this,
especially if the trip improves him.

I took issue with some points raised in a Post article yesterday concerning Coroebus and Inspiral, but at the end of the day the writer's selection won and mine was stuffed.

Have to say I like many of the points he makes when writing about the International

https://www.racingpost.com/news/insight/im-taking-on-baaeed-and-heres-why-this-horse-can-give-him-a-proper-fight/572721

'The general belief with Baaeed is that we haven't seen what he is really capable of as he saves something for himself and 'only does just enough', but I rarely buy that sort of nonsense. It's opinion rather than fact, and we'll only know it is true for sure if a horse 'idles' – another word loved by those who think horses are better than they are – and then pulls out more when challenged again.

Baaeed won races last season by four lengths, six and a half, and seven and a half, so it's only a recent thing, and if you really think he could have found another three lengths on Palace Pier last year if something had gone that far ahead you want your head tested'.

I couldn't agree more.

taking on top class horses here  at a trip he is not proven over ^^^^^

On breeding or on ability Baaeed is bad value over this new trip. I think 2/5 is barmy.

I think Baaeed is priced correctly for this.
People say that the best horse he has faced so far is Palace Pier and that was his least impressive performance.  But that came on the back of 6 runs in just 14 weeks.
He has looked impressive every run this year and the step up in trip should be no problem for him on breeding.

Mishriff has looked very ordinary this season. He was a close 2nd in the Eclipse, but you could have thrown a blanket over the front 4 after a very steadily run race. Either side of that his performances have been poor.

I think we will see Baaeed win comfortably tomorrow.

Baaeed is priced to win 7 races out of 10, I make his chance 6 out of 10

Sandown I don’t  understand this comment, very ambiguous imo

Sandown makes him a 1/2 shot not the current 2/5

In fact 2/7

could it be that mishriff is starting to think about it rather than 100% going through with it he hd a pretty tough exp in the desert sand in riyahhd and finished last btn miles then the sluggish starts in the eclipse and king george hope i am wrong ,johhny g seems happy with him so i am probably well wide of the mark.

Interesting reactions to what I thought I was making simple to understand. At the time of posting, Baaeed was 1.43 on BF which is 70%.  In old money that is 3/7 or 1/2.33.

My estimate of his chances is 57% (rounded to 60% for simplicity) or 1.7 (1.67 for 60%) or 4/6 approx in old money.

Can't see what is ambiguous Harry C. (NB 1/3 on is 75% )

I thought you meant 4/6 sandown tbh. Glad you cleared that up thanks. You must be having a good bet on something to make him that price with the edge you have on your own book

You think Baaeed's a 4/6 shot,you can lay him here @4/9.
What's not value there then?