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20 Jun 22 16:25
Date Joined: 28 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 2 | Blogger: voilamessup's blog
No market?
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Report FELTFAIR June 20, 2022 5:16 PM BST
There is on the Sportsbook but you won`t like what you see.
Report FELTFAIR June 20, 2022 5:18 PM BST
The same on Oddschecker.
Report penzance June 20, 2022 7:03 PM BST
Tuesday could be supplemented for this.
Obrien's thinking it over.
Report A_T June 20, 2022 7:16 PM BST
really? would suggest no faith in his colts
Report impossible123 June 20, 2022 11:50 PM BST
A big statement from Coolmore about their 3yr old colts, if Tuesday is supplemented ie they are pants. I think it's probably unlikely but glad to be proven wrong. Maybe Coolmore have The Arc in mind with Tuesday esp if Luxembourg is unlikely.

Would it not be ironic and "sporting" if connections of Emily Upjohn join the party in the Irish Derby, if Tuesday is supplemented?
Report A_T June 21, 2022 12:41 PM BST
Tuesday supplemented
Report penzance June 21, 2022 12:55 PM BST
Keane now rides Westover.
Report impossible123 June 21, 2022 4:39 PM BST
Tuesday shaming the Coolmore colts. Who'd have predicted that? There I was thinking Tuesday might do 10f after the "fortunate" win over Emily Upjohn instead Stone Age had been given that assignment - the latter could be Eclipse bound.

I hope Emily Upjohn would contest the Irish Derby or at least the Irish Oaks; I cannot see Tuesday duelling with Emily Upjohn (not even in the Yorkshire Oaks) until The Arc.

The Irish Derby now has a credence protagonist in Tuesday.
Report brandyontherocks June 21, 2022 9:19 PM BST
I really do not understand your apparent opposition to Ballydoyle.
Does it really matter if they have a filly that is better than their colts?
Report LoyalHoncho June 22, 2022 3:49 AM BST
What a very moderate field - the standard goes down annually for this classic.  And how Westover is 6/4 fav. is beyond me?
Nashwa did the Oaks form no harm at all the other day so Tuesday has to be favourite on the day - surely.
Report A_T June 22, 2022 6:49 AM BST
Coolmore pulling out the stops to prevent Juddmonte winning the race with a homebred
Report impossible123 June 22, 2022 11:43 PM BST
When a Ballydoyle filly takes centre stage over their colts it usually means the colts are carp. I cannot remember Coolmore running a filly against their colts in an Epsom Derby eg Minding (head and shoulders above US Army Ranger/Idaho/Wings Of Desire); their breeding business is the number 1 priority for Coolmore.
Report A_T June 24, 2022 9:48 PM BST
6/4 both Westover and Tuesday. I prefer the firmer evidence of the Oaks rather than what-might-have-been in the Derby.
Report LoyalHoncho June 25, 2022 4:30 AM BST
The Oaks was run a bit slower though on much the same ground.
I think the jockey change will definitely help Westover.
Report G Hall June 25, 2022 10:58 AM BST
A book looks the way to go
Report Figgis June 25, 2022 2:15 PM BST
Three quarters of the field look like, to turn the cliche around, handicappers in a Group race. I'll eat my words if one of them goes on to win well, but it looks more likely they're depending on the front two in the market to under perform, which admittedly is always a possibility after a hard race at Epsom. I've read pundits say that the sectionals point to Westover going close to winning the Derby if he'd had a clear run. This is where I part company with some on the usefulness of sectionals. I don't dispute the logic of running a race efficiently, but when a horse runs to a higher level than it has before, as Westover did, then how can we be sure that even if he'd been able to make his run sooner, so expending that energy earlier, his final sectional wouldn't have suffered to the same extent as when he couldn't get a clear run? Possibly it wouldn't have and he might've indeed gone close, but at this kind of price I want highly likely rather than just possible.

In my opinion Tuesday has already shown she's a bit faster than Westover and she gets the allowance. My main concern would have been how she's come out of the Oaks. But connections seem happy on that front, and, while they can't always be correct, they have a better idea than us on the outside. I make her an odds on chance so I'm obviously backing her.
Report Figgis June 25, 2022 3:50 PM BST
Well done Westover backers, he did it well. Tuesday was poor and a poor bet, all over the track.
Report A_T June 25, 2022 3:51 PM BST
backed Westover at Epsom bit not today. i don't think the Oaks form is worth much
Report Figgis June 25, 2022 4:04 PM BST
I still think Emily Upjohn is definitely worth following. Regardless of the impressive winner today I don't think Tuesday ran anything like the same filly as at Epsom. I said after the Oaks that my feeling was she probably peaked there, but I was swayed by the upbeat reports of how well she came out of it, and what I thought looked an easy event today. That's not an excuse, just a self criticism.

Maybe the sectional enthusiasts were right and Westover would've gone close at Epsom or even won. He was certainly impressive today even allowing for the mediocre opposition, but personally I'd still side with Desert Crown.
Report A_T June 25, 2022 4:19 PM BST
I was swayed by Ballydoyle pulling out all their colts which made me think they thought Tuesday was special but perhaps it's just their 3yo colts are so poor.

perhaps today Tuesday ran below form but she was also well beaten in the Irish Guineas. I think Emily Upjohn really should have won the Oaks quite easily.
Report impossible123 June 25, 2022 4:40 PM BST
I think AOB made a mistake running Tuesday so soon after the Epsom Oaks. I also think Tuesday could have run her last 12f race after today.

Coolmore will need to reshuffle their cards again; not much good if their 3 yr old colts are carp.
Report penzance June 25, 2022 4:48 PM BST
Tuesday had a days more rest than the horses
who ran in the Derby.Fair play to O'brien for
giving it a go.They've still got Luxembourg to
come back yet,if he does that is.
Report impossible123 June 25, 2022 4:54 PM BST
I think this year's renewal is carp. The beaten horses were carp Group horses. The winner showed he was unlucky not to finish 2nd at Epsom.
Report paulo47 June 25, 2022 5:44 PM BST
There is a God , have a little 4s for Ascot .
Report Figgis June 25, 2022 6:40 PM BST
Looking at the time comparisons backs up the view of those who thought Westover would've gone very close at Epsom and on this occasion I was wrong to be sceptical. On today's performance I have him only 1lb below DC, although it can be argued that DC was eased and was value for at least another pound. Nevertheless these are very fine margins and from a personal financial point of view I can only say I'm glad it wasn't put to the test at Epsom.
Report metro john June 25, 2022 10:02 PM BST
The second and third in today's race were noticeably rated lower by TF than the official that in itself a point of discussion? But yes the Derby is working out wonderfully the front two  both seem to be worth a crack at the Arc,and we all would like to see a rematch.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 11:04 AM BST
This was an awful race. Only three had a chance of winning it with the other runners not at the races. Moore accepted it a long way out.

At the Curragh Westover beat Piz Badile 7 lengths, he beat him double that distance at Epsom, and he beat Glory Daze 13 lengths, he beat him 21 lengths at Epsom.  Nothing to be seen here. Just an awful race.
Report A_T June 26, 2022 11:40 AM BST
there's never more than 2 good horses in an Irish Derby
Report metro john June 26, 2022 11:49 AM BST
Morning brigust,hope you are well Sir. The fillies were disappointing, the winner was dominant and the time ok.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 12:28 PM BST
Hi Metro, long time no speak. I hope you are keeping well and enjoying life. Yes, it was a disappointing race imo, and Moore's ride on Tuesday appeared to be almost 'not off'. Considering what AOB had decided to do and how important the race has been to Ballydoyle this was almost a no-race. WE may know more in the future when we have a few more races under our belts.
Report Figgis June 26, 2022 1:06 PM BST
A poor race regarding the standard put up by the beaten horses no doubt, but it's blindingly obvious that Piz Badile, as ordinary as he may be, didn't run to his best form at Epsom.
Report Figgis June 26, 2022 1:06 PM BST
A poor race regarding the standard put up by the beaten horses no doubt, but it's blindingly obvious that Piz Badile, as ordinary as he may be, didn't run to his best form at Epsom.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 1:10 PM BST
That may be so but he beat Glory Daze almost exactly the same distance at the Curragh as in the Epsom Derby. So perhaps Glory Daze ran exactly the same amount below his best form as well.
Report Figgis June 26, 2022 1:20 PM BST
Yes, at Epsom Glory Daze obviously also ran below his previous best too. This is far from unusual, in fact it's the norm. Look at any Derby throughout the years, or indeed most fast run races, particularly over extended trips, and you'll find once you get past the first five or six (often less), most of the beaten runners ran some way below their best. It's often even more exaggerated in the Derby, where young horses who aren't in the same class as the better runners are caught up in the hurly burly and asked to go faster than they've ran before.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 1:49 PM BST
I would prefer to think the Epsom form was Westover's true form and that Westover is a lot better than the bare performance at the Curragh. I think he will have to be to win the races he is likely to be aimed at. That is why I think the Curragh race was an awful race and therefore not a true reflection of Westover's ability.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 1:51 PM BST
Just as I don't think the Curragh race was Tuesday's true form.
Report Figgis June 26, 2022 1:59 PM BST
I find it odd that people are judging a Derby on how the tail enders performed, but each to their own and all that.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 2:08 PM BST
I was assessing the performance on the form. As someone once told me, the name of the race doesn't matter. You may have your way of assessing the performance but I am quite happy using the form lines available. Mad as it may seem. As time passes I will learn from the form just how good or how poor this race was. I am quite happy with doing that.
Report Sandown June 26, 2022 2:25 PM BST
The RP have Westover running to an RPR of 124, a 3lbs higher mark than Hurricane Lane in the 2021 running, but with a TS of 100 , 11lb lower than HL last year.

So, which is the better form? Westover won by 7L, whilst HL only by a neck.

Westover ran to a RPR at Epsom of 121 and a TS of 106, compared to Desert Crown whose figs were  125 RPR and 117 TS.

Westover has been raised +3 RPR to 124 and -8 to 98 on TS.

I know that individually we may have different figures, but this at least gives us a starting point for any discussion about what may happen in the future. ( In passing, we must recognise that Tuesday ran well below her Epsom marks -12 RPR and -22 TS, for whatever reason.)

Taking sectional upgrade into account, I had Westover projecting to 122  so a new RPR of 124 is perfectly reasonable for me. The question, now, though, is who will come out on top if and when they meet again? I can't really be confident about that as at this age 3 yr olds can improve a lot.

If they meet in the King George I would make DC to confirm placings, as things stand. Just.
Report Figgis June 26, 2022 2:40 PM BST
I agree, that with Tuesday obviously below par Westover didn't have a lot to beat. Prior to the race I was as critical as anyone about the standard, calling the opposition handicappers. That was a bit tongue in cheek where Piz Badile was concerned, as even though it was a weak Gp3 he won it was at least up to a Listed performance. So Westover has hammered a Listed horse by 7 lengths. Not a brilliant performance but certainly not a poor one. We also have the Gp3 race for time comparison, which is pretty reliable form with Aikhal back to his best of last year.

In my view there hasn't been a really outstanding winner of the Irish Derby since Galileo and Sinndar (Dylan Thomas developed into a better horse in the later half of his 4yo season). Of the last 10 runnings I wouldn't even place Westover as good as Hurricane Lane, Jack Hobbs and Australia, but he's already clearly better than the others.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 2:53 PM BST
I can totally agree with all of that F. I do like the Derby winner though and I am pleased that Westover is getting the lions share of the credit. Certainly makes for better prices being available. I am also pretty sure Westover is better than his performance yesterday but I can see no way I could back him to beat the Derby winner.   

Hi Sandown. I hope you are well.
Report A_T June 26, 2022 3:11 PM BST
for some reason the Irish Derby has stopped being the automatic "next stop" for the Epsom winner - it's had some rotten winners recently but I don't regard Westover as one of them
Report Sandown June 26, 2022 3:17 PM BST
Surviving bigust1, surviving, thank you.

Which is all we can hope for at this age, no?

Report pipedreamer June 26, 2022 5:07 PM BST
The Furore about the jockey change is worthy of comment.When riding in the Derby it's best not to be on the rail coming around Home turn.This is because horses tend to hang left in the straight because of the camber.To be fair he was drawn low so it was logical that he landed up there.Kingscote could have followed Desert Crown through as he was to his right.But unfotunately he had a split second to decide (and with the horse in front SEEMING to just start to tire ? )  went inside the horse in front of him.The rest is history,he ended up having to go between horses and as horses tend to hang at Epsom became the meat in the sandwich.
If you have a good horse with class,there should be no problem with seeing a lot of daylight on the outside.Handicappers tend to need to come between horses and dink their head in front on the line,not neccessarily class horses.
I feel sorry for Kingscote,he had a split second to decide and fate went against him.The viewpoint from some is that a more experienced jockey would have ridden the horse differently in the Derby.But hindsight is a wonderful thing !!.Frankie Dettori got stick for his riding of Stradivarius,but sometimes fate conspires against you and it's not your fault.Even Lester Piggott got in a mess with Park Top in the Eclipse,so these things happen.
It would be nice to see Richard Kingscote get his chance to silence his critics in the future,and i'm sure he will.
Report brigust1 June 26, 2022 5:45 PM BST
^^Richard Kingscote did follow Desert Crown through because he was riding it. Rob Hornby was the jockey on Westover.
Report pipedreamer June 26, 2022 6:58 PM BST
Yes i see my mistake,i've been out of the country.
Report pipedreamer June 26, 2022 6:59 PM BST
Yes correct,i see my mistake,i've been out of the country.
Report LoyalHoncho June 28, 2022 1:06 AM BST
For me Probert had that same split second and he took it instead of flaffing about.  I've seen Hornby get horses into trouble before who were sure fire winners and it isn't pretty.  And yes I bet two he got beat and am biased.  Losing money you shouldn;t does that to you.
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