Horse Antepost
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No market?
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There is on the Sportsbook but you won`t like what you see.
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The same on Oddschecker.
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Tuesday could be supplemented for this.
Obrien's thinking it over. |
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really? would suggest no faith in his colts
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A big statement from Coolmore about their 3yr old colts, if Tuesday is supplemented ie they are pants. I think it's probably unlikely but glad to be proven wrong. Maybe Coolmore have The Arc in mind with Tuesday esp if Luxembourg is unlikely.
Would it not be ironic and "sporting" if connections of Emily Upjohn join the party in the Irish Derby, if Tuesday is supplemented? |
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Tuesday supplemented
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Keane now rides Westover.
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Tuesday shaming the Coolmore colts. Who'd have predicted that? There I was thinking Tuesday might do 10f after the "fortunate" win over Emily Upjohn instead Stone Age had been given that assignment - the latter could be Eclipse bound.
I hope Emily Upjohn would contest the Irish Derby or at least the Irish Oaks; I cannot see Tuesday duelling with Emily Upjohn (not even in the Yorkshire Oaks) until The Arc. The Irish Derby now has a credence protagonist in Tuesday. |
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I really do not understand your apparent opposition to Ballydoyle.
Does it really matter if they have a filly that is better than their colts? |
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What a very moderate field - the standard goes down annually for this classic. And how Westover is 6/4 fav. is beyond me?
Nashwa did the Oaks form no harm at all the other day so Tuesday has to be favourite on the day - surely. |
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Coolmore pulling out the stops to prevent Juddmonte winning the race with a homebred
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When a Ballydoyle filly takes centre stage over their colts it usually means the colts are carp. I cannot remember Coolmore running a filly against their colts in an Epsom Derby eg Minding (head and shoulders above US Army Ranger/Idaho/Wings Of Desire); their breeding business is the number 1 priority for Coolmore.
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6/4 both Westover and Tuesday. I prefer the firmer evidence of the Oaks rather than what-might-have-been in the Derby.
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The Oaks was run a bit slower though on much the same ground.
I think the jockey change will definitely help Westover. |
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A book looks the way to go
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Three quarters of the field look like, to turn the cliche around, handicappers in a Group race. I'll eat my words if one of them goes on to win well, but it looks more likely they're depending on the front two in the market to under perform, which admittedly is always a possibility after a hard race at Epsom. I've read pundits say that the sectionals point to Westover going close to winning the Derby if he'd had a clear run. This is where I part company with some on the usefulness of sectionals. I don't dispute the logic of running a race efficiently, but when a horse runs to a higher level than it has before, as Westover did, then how can we be sure that even if he'd been able to make his run sooner, so expending that energy earlier, his final sectional wouldn't have suffered to the same extent as when he couldn't get a clear run? Possibly it wouldn't have and he might've indeed gone close, but at this kind of price I want highly likely rather than just possible.
In my opinion Tuesday has already shown she's a bit faster than Westover and she gets the allowance. My main concern would have been how she's come out of the Oaks. But connections seem happy on that front, and, while they can't always be correct, they have a better idea than us on the outside. I make her an odds on chance so I'm obviously backing her. |
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Well done Westover backers, he did it well. Tuesday was poor and a poor bet, all over the track.
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backed Westover at Epsom bit not today. i don't think the Oaks form is worth much
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I still think Emily Upjohn is definitely worth following. Regardless of the impressive winner today I don't think Tuesday ran anything like the same filly as at Epsom. I said after the Oaks that my feeling was she probably peaked there, but I was swayed by the upbeat reports of how well she came out of it, and what I thought looked an easy event today. That's not an excuse, just a self criticism.
Maybe the sectional enthusiasts were right and Westover would've gone close at Epsom or even won. He was certainly impressive today even allowing for the mediocre opposition, but personally I'd still side with Desert Crown. |
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I was swayed by Ballydoyle pulling out all their colts which made me think they thought Tuesday was special but perhaps it's just their 3yo colts are so poor.
perhaps today Tuesday ran below form but she was also well beaten in the Irish Guineas. I think Emily Upjohn really should have won the Oaks quite easily. |
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I think AOB made a mistake running Tuesday so soon after the Epsom Oaks. I also think Tuesday could have run her last 12f race after today.
Coolmore will need to reshuffle their cards again; not much good if their 3 yr old colts are carp. |
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Tuesday had a days more rest than the horses
who ran in the Derby.Fair play to O'brien for giving it a go.They've still got Luxembourg to come back yet,if he does that is. |
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I think this year's renewal is carp. The beaten horses were carp Group horses. The winner showed he was unlucky not to finish 2nd at Epsom.
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There is a God , have a little 4s for Ascot .
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Looking at the time comparisons backs up the view of those who thought Westover would've gone very close at Epsom and on this occasion I was wrong to be sceptical. On today's performance I have him only 1lb below DC, although it can be argued that DC was eased and was value for at least another pound. Nevertheless these are very fine margins and from a personal financial point of view I can only say I'm glad it wasn't put to the test at Epsom.
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The second and third in today's race were noticeably rated lower by TF than the official that in itself a point of discussion? But yes the Derby is working out wonderfully the front two both seem to be worth a crack at the Arc,and we all would like to see a rematch.
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This was an awful race. Only three had a chance of winning it with the other runners not at the races. Moore accepted it a long way out.
At the Curragh Westover beat Piz Badile 7 lengths, he beat him double that distance at Epsom, and he beat Glory Daze 13 lengths, he beat him 21 lengths at Epsom. Nothing to be seen here. Just an awful race. |
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there's never more than 2 good horses in an Irish Derby
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Morning brigust,hope you are well Sir. The fillies were disappointing, the winner was dominant and the time ok.
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Hi Metro, long time no speak. I hope you are keeping well and enjoying life. Yes, it was a disappointing race imo, and Moore's ride on Tuesday appeared to be almost 'not off'. Considering what AOB had decided to do and how important the race has been to Ballydoyle this was almost a no-race. WE may know more in the future when we have a few more races under our belts.
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A poor race regarding the standard put up by the beaten horses no doubt, but it's blindingly obvious that Piz Badile, as ordinary as he may be, didn't run to his best form at Epsom.
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A poor race regarding the standard put up by the beaten horses no doubt, but it's blindingly obvious that Piz Badile, as ordinary as he may be, didn't run to his best form at Epsom.
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That may be so but he beat Glory Daze almost exactly the same distance at the Curragh as in the Epsom Derby. So perhaps Glory Daze ran exactly the same amount below his best form as well.
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Yes, at Epsom Glory Daze obviously also ran below his previous best too. This is far from unusual, in fact it's the norm. Look at any Derby throughout the years, or indeed most fast run races, particularly over extended trips, and you'll find once you get past the first five or six (often less), most of the beaten runners ran some way below their best. It's often even more exaggerated in the Derby, where young horses who aren't in the same class as the better runners are caught up in the hurly burly and asked to go faster than they've ran before.
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I would prefer to think the Epsom form was Westover's true form and that Westover is a lot better than the bare performance at the Curragh. I think he will have to be to win the races he is likely to be aimed at. That is why I think the Curragh race was an awful race and therefore not a true reflection of Westover's ability.
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Just as I don't think the Curragh race was Tuesday's true form.
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I find it odd that people are judging a Derby on how the tail enders performed, but each to their own and all that.
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I was assessing the performance on the form. As someone once told me, the name of the race doesn't matter. You may have your way of assessing the performance but I am quite happy using the form lines available. Mad as it may seem. As time passes I will learn from the form just how good or how poor this race was. I am quite happy with doing that.
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The RP have Westover running to an RPR of 124, a 3lbs higher mark than Hurricane Lane in the 2021 running, but with a TS of 100 , 11lb lower than HL last year.
So, which is the better form? Westover won by 7L, whilst HL only by a neck. Westover ran to a RPR at Epsom of 121 and a TS of 106, compared to Desert Crown whose figs were 125 RPR and 117 TS. Westover has been raised +3 RPR to 124 and -8 to 98 on TS. I know that individually we may have different figures, but this at least gives us a starting point for any discussion about what may happen in the future. ( In passing, we must recognise that Tuesday ran well below her Epsom marks -12 RPR and -22 TS, for whatever reason.) Taking sectional upgrade into account, I had Westover projecting to 122 so a new RPR of 124 is perfectly reasonable for me. The question, now, though, is who will come out on top if and when they meet again? I can't really be confident about that as at this age 3 yr olds can improve a lot. If they meet in the King George I would make DC to confirm placings, as things stand. Just. |