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cryoftruth
26 Jun 21 13:10
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 8,887 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Looks a useful sort to me.
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Report cryoftruth July 22, 2021 3:29 PM BST
The 33/1 snapped up for the Guineas has long since gone.

She certainly looks a useful sort now.
Report Howellsy July 22, 2021 3:31 PM BST
Agreed. Ridden like they knew she was different class, and still got to the front too soon.
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:06 PM BST
not even a market up on the exchangeCry
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:12 PM BST
havent heard anything after this listed race, but surely the fillies mile should be next and we could be looking at odds on fav for mayGrin, that was impressive today
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:15 PM BST
is there anything at york, doncaster before then ? or ireland
Report cryoftruth July 22, 2021 4:16 PM BST
Yes I asked for a 1000 Guineas market after Inspiral won her first race and still waiting.
Report cryoftruth July 22, 2021 4:18 PM BST
Looks like the May Hill is next.

Presumably the fillies mile after that if they persevere with her. She may be best on good going though as she does seem to like fast ground and I would not like to see her having a tough race on a bog.
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:25 PM BST
of course forgot about may hill
Report A_T July 22, 2021 4:26 PM BST
the second could be an Oaks filly
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 6:13 PM BST
16/1 on here on sportsbook, im luckier than most maximum bet 0.63p
Report SeeMoreBusiness July 22, 2021 6:47 PM BST
Got a few £ on at 16/1 Elis then discovered 20/1 at Spoilsports. Loaded up again. Very, very impressive imho. Did everything wrong. Still won. Given the breeding I wouldn't kick the Oaks out either. Be surprised if JG has a better 2yo filly than that tbh
Report cryoftruth July 24, 2021 9:25 AM BST
One downside to her is the trainer. Not that the Gosdens are not very good trainers. It’s just that they are not known for getting horses ready for the Guineas. Raven’s Pass and even Kingman somehow managed to get beaten and there has only been a single Guineas winner from the stable, a shockingly low return for such a large well stocked high class yard.
I am supposing they do not like to rush the 3yos, and give them the time they need. It would be irritating though if Inspiral ended up winning the Coronation Dtakes having lost the Guineas,
Report jamesp July 25, 2021 3:16 PM BST
I wouldn't wish to detract from Inspiral's impressive performance at Sandown (especially considering she still looked a bit green and got to the front too soon), and at this stage she does look to me just about the best and most exciting of the 7f juvenile fillies we've seen so far this season (and more 'inspiring' than most of the 6f fillies seen thus far, with the possible exceptions of Sandrine and Hermana Estrella), but it needs to be put into context.

As I pointed out on the Guineas thread, this Listed race rarely has any significant bearing on the 1000 Guineas, with the recent exception of Billesdon Brook, who managed to get narrowly beaten in what at the time looked a substandard renewal of this race in 2017 before springing a massive surprise in the 1000 Guineas in 2018. The placed fillies on Thursday were officially rated 89 and 90 respectively, with Sunstrike having finished unplaced (beaten more than 6 lengths) behind Sandrine in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Ascot. The RP handicappers have seen no need to raise the ratings of those placed fillies, allocating them RPRs of 90 and 89, with Inspiral given a mark of 102. It's hard to envisage the official handicapper giving her a higher rating than that for this particular performance. This leaves her needing to find about a stone of improvement to have a winning chance in an average Guineas. With better races to come, she will have opportunities to achieve a much higher rating and put herself into serious contention for the Guineas, but this is still early in her career and she will be tackling better opposition from now on. The May Hill looks a sensible next target, since it's rarely contested by really top-notch performers, as a stepping stone to Group 1 targets later on. Gosden's usual approach in the past with his best fillies has been to pitch them straight into Group races (such as the Sweet Solera Stakes or the Prestige Stakes) following their maiden victories, so it came as a bit of a surprise to see him target the lowly Listed race at Sandown, as it's not a race he habitually targets with his better fillies.

In terms of performance and ratings I wouldn't place Inspiral much above Joseph O'Brien's Agartha, who was almost as impressive in winning the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown on Thursday. There are a number of other smart looking prospects emerging in Ireland that are likely to contest key races in the coming weeks such as the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes and Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. For example, Dermot Weld's Frankel filly Homeless Songs, who beat Agartha by a couple of lengths on debut earlier this month, looks like she could develop into a smart type.

Having missed out on bigger prices for the Guineas, I certainly wouldn't be in any rush to take 16/1 Inspiral at this stage for the Guineas. Perhaps if nothing much emerges in the next few weeks, the 16/1 might be worth taking if it looks like she will have a fairly straightforward task in the May Hill.
Report cryoftruth July 26, 2021 9:18 AM BST
I have never much been bothered about trends like which races were won by what in the past James. Such trends tend to change over the course of time and races obviously tend on average to be won by horses who are the best at the weights over going and trip. Horses do not know they can’t win because they ran in the wrong race 10 months ago
Inspiral may or may not be a group 1 filly. She is though a slow learner. After her first race Gosden specifically indicated his intention to take Inspiral forward with baby steps.

This is the trainer responding to the needs of the horse. She was still green last time and did not need to be chucked to a group race straight off. This does not mean she won’t be any good. The previous Gosden habit of chucking his better 2yos into group company sooner is irrelevant to a green thing like Inspiral.

The May Hill has a roll of honour that includes Lauren’s, Reams of Verse, Midway Lady, Spacious and other useful ones at least. Because Inspiral will be further improved for the experience and the extra furlong she would be a likely very hot favourite there, after which her Guineas odds will likely be single figure, assuming the going is not too soft.

Agatha is a nice filly but she has had 5 runs already, and looks very professional and also quite exposed. She is 2 lbs behind an improving Inspiral who was too green to show her best either time she has run. It’s hard to see her improving past Inspiral but stranger things have certainly happened in recent times with fillies from Ireland improving from 2 to 3 in spite of having numerous runs and appearing to be lower than top class, before making sudden inexplicably rapid progress at 3.
Report jamesp July 30, 2021 8:18 AM BST
I'm inclined to agree with everything you've written there, cryoftruth. I went back through recent (last 20 years) May Hill results and reminded myself that it has produced its fair share of top-class fillies, i.e. fillies successful at Group 1 level: it has featured a couple of subsequent winners of the 1000 Guineas (Ameerat and Speciosa, both placed in the May Hill), five fillies that subsequently finished placed in the Guineas (Hathrah, Maids Causeway, Spacious, Ihtimal, Laurens) and no fewer than eight winners of the Fillies' Mile (including two trained by John Gosden). It's been targeted by Gosden before and is a much better pointer to the Guineas than the race Inspiral won at Sandown. Given the classy way she won the Star Stakes, Inspiral is likely to be a warm order for the May Hill and she will have a good opportunity there to put up an improved performance/rating, and this in turn would put her in pole position for the Fillies' Mile (and the chance of achieving an even higher rating). At the moment she needs to find about 10-12 lbs improvement to be a serious Guineas contender, but she has done everything right so far and there is every reason to suppose she can progress to the top. There is nothing I would prefer for the Guineas ahead of Inspiral at this stage, and the only reason I haven't backed her is because her current odds (12/1 best price from 16/1) are simply too short for what she's actually achieved.

PS Agartha put up a seemingly much improved performance in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes, and she may well be one of those slow-learning fillies that suddenly starts to make rapid improvement after a few runs suggesting she was nothing special. Her next couple of races (starting with the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes) will tell us a lot more.
Report jamesp August 3, 2021 2:07 PM BST
Inspiral's Sandown form could be tested as soon as this weekend when the fillies that chased her home at Sandown are set to renew rivalry in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. The Sandown 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all feature among the 13 entries, headed by Wild Beauty (W.Buick) and Sunstrike (O.Murphy). Mark Johnston has a good record in this race (two winners and a runner-up in the last three renewals) and his filly Value Theory (by Gleneagles from a smart family), who won in good style over C&D last time, is an interesting contender.
Report cryoftruth August 5, 2021 11:57 AM BST
Yes indeed James. There really will be a clue as to the value of Inspiral’s last win in that race, provided of course that the going is not entirely different.
Personally I think Wild Beauty will take quite a bit of beating as her form even before Sandown was pretty strong.

I like Value Theory too and she is a definite likely improver. Just wonder whether Gleneagles has been a tad disappointing as a stallion. He was a superb horse and as you say was bred in the purple. He has not really had a group 1 performer yet. Maybe Value Theory will be the one?
Report jamesp August 5, 2021 4:51 PM BST
Yes, Gleneagles' best fillies so far are Novemba (fourth to Alcohol Free in the Gr.1 Coronation Stakes, RPR 114), Insinuendo (winner of the Gr.2 Kilboy Estate Stakes, RPR 109) and Loving Dream (winner of the Gr.2 Ribblesdale Stakes, RPR 106). He's also the sire of promising unbeaten juvenile Velocidad (winner of the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes, RPR 100). He has yet to sire a Gr.1 winner of any description, but it's only his third crop of juveniles this year, and I expect he'll get his fair share of top-class horses.

Mark Johnston's filly made a nice impression last time and is bred to be quite smart: her dam is an unraced sister to top-class Verveine (Gr.2 winner, multiple Gr.1-placed, RPR 120). Quite how good she is remains to be seen, but she's less exposed than most.
Report impossible123 October 8, 2021 1:45 PM BST
Confirm market position or bomb today?
Report morpteh mackem October 8, 2021 3:43 PM BST
confirmed
Report brain dead jockeys October 12, 2021 4:56 AM BST
never wise to get excited about 2 year olds........but she does look the real deal.
Report cryoftruth June 19, 2022 7:13 AM BST
Shame Gosden failed to get her ready for the Guineas.

He will no doubt publicly blame Franky for that as well.
Report Figgis June 19, 2022 11:20 AM BST
COT, I thought it refreshing that Gosden said it as he saw it. He didn't publicly humiliate Dettori, just said he thought he gave his horse a poor ride. If Dettori had held his hands up in the first place and said it wasn't a good ride then it wouldn't have been such a big deal. Dettori ought to have been big enough to accept some responsibility, but as he wasn't then it needed to be said, now he needs to be big enough to accept it. A nice change from the usually insular racing fraternity and its sycophantic, mealy mouthed media, where there are only "fantastic" rides and no poor ones.
Report A_T June 19, 2022 11:54 AM BST
yes but he didn't need to rub it in the following day

Figgis I was impressed by Inspiral - I can't remember a horse winning so easily in a big race at Ascot having seen so far behind at the start of the straight. Any thoughts, sectionals, etc.?
Report Figgis June 19, 2022 12:15 PM BST
A_T, all he said was he didn't over complicate it like he did the day before. That's hardly a public slagging. I just see it as clarification over his attitude to the defeat the day before, in light of the criticism he himself received from some of racing's snowflakes.
Report Figgis June 19, 2022 12:33 PM BST
A_T, as to Inspiral. Immediately after the race I thought exactly the same as you. Very impressive and looks even better than last year. First guesses were that Discoveries came on from the Guineas, Tenebrism still hasn't trained on, or doesn't stay or both, Cachet (a substandard Guineas winner anyway) had slipped backwards after a few hard races and Honey Girl had run a career peak. After delving a bit deeper though and making comparisons I was surprised to find it wasn't anything like as good as I thought at first. I don't have a true handle on Spendarella's capabilities, but I have Discoveries only running to her Guineas form and Honey Girl also running to her previous best. The rest were all well below their best. In hindsight it isn't that surprising, as none of them were really coming here on a high. I reckon Inspiral didn't have to do any more than she did last year. And given that she wasn't exactly cantering all over them early on I don't think she could've improved on that. Although some may make allowances for Gosden's comments that she was only just fit, I'm taking them with a pinch of salt.

So in my view she's still obviously a good filly as she was last season, but she isn't exceptional. Possibly future events performances from those that ran on Friday will lead to me re-evaluating that card and realising I was wrong. But unless that happens, I know who I'd want to bet in a race on good ground containing Inspiral and Homeless Songs, it would be a maximum bet on the latter.
Report cryoftruth June 21, 2022 8:49 AM BST
Of course time will tell Figgis.

RPR gave Inspiral 123 and I would personally not argue with that but I do think that she may well improve on that and also that she may actually already be better than the bare form.

She has now run in 5 races, including a group 2 and 2 group ones.

On 5 occasions she has quickened right away. keeps on doing a very fair impersonation of a champion.

She did it in the May Hill, then the fillies mile. There is not doubt at all she would have won the 1000 Guineas as well has she been ready to run there. She made the Coronation Stakes field look very slow and that race had a number of group one winners and group one placed horses in it.

She at least has the ability to repeatedly impersonate a champion, repeatedly giving the impression of being exceptional.

A question. If you see something that, every time you see her, looks like a duck, continues to quack, has feathers and goes well with orange sauce, would it not be wise, sooner or later, to conclude that you are in fact looking at a duck. Inspiral keeps looking like a brilliant champion with speed to burn. Maybe she does not just look like a champion. Perhaps she is!

Of course Inspiral might have got lucky 5 times and won 3 group races because the opposition was not up to much, we’re out of form, didn’t turn up or whatever. I think as she continues to make opponents all look like selling platers, the chances of her being lucky start to look longer and longer.

I personally think she would be well worth a crack at the Eclipse or the International at York. She would be my choice with WFA and fillies’ allowance against Baaeed.
Report Figgis June 21, 2022 12:30 PM BST
Of course Inspiral might have got lucky 5 times

Who mentioned luck? I said she's a very good filly and she fully deserved to win every race she's won. There's nothing substandard about the level she's been running to in regards to a Gp1 filly against her own sex. Last year I said the only thing I had against her was the ridiculously short price for a race so long away. However, in any given year the mile fillies are well below the level set by the Gp1 colts, much more than the 3yo allowance gives them. One can get lucky in a weak year, or a race where the colts don't run to their best, as happened with Alcohol Free last year. However it usually doesn't just take a good 3yo filly to beat the best colts over a mile, it takes an exceptional one. There's no question that Inspiral put up a good performance to win at Ascot. I said I don't think it was as outstanding as it looked. Even Gosden said he didn't expect her to win like that, but maybe she's even better than he thought.

So to clarify, is Inspiral a very good filly and a worthy winner of all her races? Obviously she is. I just don't believe she's put up an outstanding performance in the same bracket as Minding and Alpha Centauri did in recent years at this stage.
Report Figgis June 21, 2022 12:55 PM BST
And just to dispel the notion that I have taken some absurd bias against the filly, or that only an exceptional filly can win in such style, my personal favourite Guineas winning filly of recent years (and sadly the last one I backed ante post) was Sky Lantern. I'd argue that she was equally impressive in winning her Coronation Stakes, but she still wasn't on par with the best colts.
Report A_T June 21, 2022 1:30 PM BST
I'm not keen on "The rest were all well below their best" which is something that gets trotted out from time to time and can't be proved either way. I remember a poster not rating Harbinger's King George run because in his opinion all the others ran below form.
Report Figgis June 21, 2022 1:32 PM BST
Well, I backed Harbinger for the KG and even remember making a bit of an ott statement on here that I'd be surprised if he was beaten at Ascot, but there's still no doubt the others ran some way below their best.
Report cryoftruth June 21, 2022 3:52 PM BST
Figgis

Nice discussion and good luck. We’ll doubtless have more chat when the 2 star fillies meet, if of course they do!

Good luck etc
Report Figgis June 21, 2022 4:13 PM BST
COT

I don't think Homeless Songs has quite hit the heights of Minding or Alpha Centauri either. Truth is if I take HS's best rating and Inspiral's then I have HS only 1lb ahead. Even if I was spot on I don't kid myself that confidence can be placed in such fine margins. The main reason I would go max on HS is the price, as it seems pretty clear the market is going to greatly favour Inspiral. Also I would prefer to side with the filly who has definitely shown she's recently improved. For as good as Inspiral's effort was I'm not convinced she improved, but we'll see. Obviously things will depend on what happens before they meet (if they do). If HS had a hard race beforehand and Inspiral wins easily then I may very well favour Inspiral. I might even back her against colts if I thought a race had softened up for her. Wink
Report Figgis June 21, 2022 4:44 PM BST
There is no doubt at all she would have won the 1000 Guineas as well has she been ready to run there

COT, I completely agree with that. By my reckoning her Ascot performance would've seen her win the Guineas comfortably by around 2 lengths. But this year's Guineas was the worst for ages, so that would still only make her a very good filly rather than a brilliant one.

I just think the racing media go overboard about some of these up to scratch Gp1 wins and try to make them sound astonishing. This can lead to a situation where he who praises everybody praises nobody. Which in turn leads to a cynical response where some people can't even acknowledge true brilliance when it's in evidence. Baaeed being compared with Frankel, for example, which we both agree is nonsense.
Report brandyontherocks June 21, 2022 9:21 PM BST
Not many posts I enjoy reading these days, but Fig, Sandown and COT you have made this topic interesting. Great analysis and perfect grammar to boot.
Report cryoftruth June 22, 2022 7:27 AM BST
Hi Figgis

I actually do agree with much of what you say. Having rather taken to Inspiral after her first race when she was clueless before the last half furlong when she shot clear, I am a fan and thus biased! We all try and spot the next one early. I have had a few successes but many failures on that score certainly. Inspiral’s jury is still out to some extent but I remain full of hope. A clash with Baaeed is one I am hoping for before the end of the season, although Homeless Song may have to be dealt with first.
123 as a rating does not make her a superstar, and it’s easy to use superlatives.

However she just might yet prove superstar status. I say this because, at least so far she has ended up winning easily enough, and nothing has yet looked to trouble her. Maybe it’s her style of racing that (until beaten) makes he so full of potential still.

If she takes the Falmouth next (where she will be odds on) it will be later when she meets the colts that she will prove it one way or the other.

Her breeding very much suggests that she will improve for going further though. One half brother (Celestran) is less stoutly bred and yet stayed 11 furlongs and won over 10.

I really do think she may be capable of getting close to 130 when she develops further and gets to race over 10 furlongs, and her turn of foot would be deadly over that trip. If she did get that far and prove to be around 130 she would have as high a rating as Enable! It is not altogether out of the question that Inspiral could stay the Arc trip!

It rather looks like Frankel is developing into a champion sire now doesn’t it?

Anyway we have interesting times to look forward to in our discussions.
Report A_T June 22, 2022 8:34 AM BST
Homeless Songs is in the Falmouth but odds suggest not running - Weld very choosy about the ground for her so no guarantee the 2 will ever meet
Report cryoftruth June 22, 2022 9:20 AM BST
Oh and Inspiral’s finish at Royal Ascot, having been 12 lengths behind at half way was absolutely sensational.
Report penzance June 22, 2022 10:18 AM BST
The Ascot race shows you were extremely unlucky she did'nt
show for the Guineas,cryoftruth.You done well putting her
up well in advance,saying she's a good filly.Whether you
backed her on here,I dont know,hope you came out of the
Guineas with a few bob though,at least & this race.
   wd
    GL
Report cryoftruth June 22, 2022 12:54 PM BST
Well thank you.

I broke even on the Guineas after all this year thanks, betfair does at least allow you to take advantage of good antepost bets before they withdraw.

My successes and failures antepost are very long standing  - I am old!

Balanchine and Alexandrova were very big wins. Light Shift, Midday, Was, Workforce & Diminuendo less big wins too. Missed Frankel somehow as I thought he would be a Derby horse. This year a friend helped me win well on Tuesday, but I had actually backed Emily Upjohn at 50/1!

Biggest disappointment until Inspiral was 25/1 about Celtic Swing for the 2000 Guineas. He was unbeatable. Then in the Guineas they raced on a rutted road of firm ground, then he was knocked sideways by Chilly Billy coming out of the stalls, could not go down into the dip well, but rallied and lost by a foot to bloody Pennekamp. I have never quite recovered from that trauma! You can tell from my forensic memory of that particular tragedy! Would have won nearly a thousand pounds but for sheer bad luck,

This year I seem  to have already lost on Age Of Kings for next year’s 2000 Guineas!

But it’s all good fun if you try not to get too seriously involved financially.
Report Sandown June 23, 2022 11:07 AM BST
These days we are supplied with sectionals for all races at Ascot through the ATR site. I would suggest that one be careful about over-rating Inspiral's performance because compared with other races that day and other days, whilst it was good, I don't deny that, "sensational" is too strong a term to use imo. The truth is that compared to her rivals on the day, she was much better than those, by a long way, but the rest were not, either under-performing or not as good as thought. I grant that it "looked" sensational.

Inspiral was give an RPR of 123 which I won't argue with but also a Top Speed figure of 94. Even with a sectional upgrade I can't rate the performance as more than 109.Inspiral's time for the last 2f was 23.87 secs, certainly the fastest finishing split of the day. But compare with Thesis on the Thursday (ok 8f straight course but last 2f the same) at 23.78 seconds (NB going allowance almost exactly the same both days for last 3f).And just to make the point more strongly, Krypios finished in 23.00 seconds after 20f in the Gold Cup.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am not knocking Inspiral in anyway, she is a top-class filly. And I have seen this situation before where the RPR given is not really supported by the clock a few times yet the horse went on to show better figures subsequently. The best example that comes to mind is Giants Causeway in 1999/2000 who I got wrong a few times. He evventually won 9 from 13 with 6 in G1 races.

So, before backing Inspiral at very short prices in future, my advice is to be somewhat cautious. She probably is the real deal, but.....
Report A_T June 23, 2022 2:11 PM BST
You can look at those times in a different way - Inspiral finished the last furlong half a second faster than any other filly in the race. In the Gold Cup the first 4 all covered it within 0.2 secs of each other. Inspiral produced a blistering finish off an even pace - the stayers were all sprinting home after a crawl.

Thanks Sandown for showing where to find the sectionals.
Report impossible123 June 23, 2022 2:17 PM BST
Indeed. I think with give in the ground I'll back Homeless Songs over Inspiral. And, that's nothing to do with being no-Gosden fan.

Let's hope the duel could take place in The Falmouth.
Report duffy June 23, 2022 3:18 PM BST
HS was visually mightily impressive in Ireland but the couple of horses in the race capable of top class form other than her have shown that they need 12f to do it, nothing in that race is looking likely at being top drawer over a mile so she ran away from a couple of decent horses over too short a trip and others have let that race down subsequently.
Report cryoftruth June 23, 2022 4:20 PM BST
I doubt Homeless Song is as good as Inspiral but it’s quite possible,

Timeform have Inspiral 125p and Homeless 123p. It’s a question of which makes more progress. I think Inspiral has more potential but it’s only a biased opinion and it’s not like Tuesday let the Irish 1000 Guineas form down is it, by winning the Oaks albeit a bit fortunately. 

Actually both may well appreciate further, both by Frankel and both with half siblings who stayed further. I would imagine it would be quite a race if they were to meet say in the Nassau Stakes or even better in the Judmonte International at York, where either might humble Baaeed.
Report cryoftruth June 23, 2022 4:25 PM BST
I think Inspiral’s finish at Ascot was sensational to look at. It was an amazing turn of foot, the likes of which I have rarely seen. She gave pretty decent fillies about a 16 length thrashing over the last half mile. The replay of the last 5 furlongs is reminiscent  of the stuff Enable used to dish up.
Report A_T June 23, 2022 4:50 PM BST
yes I'm not sure how common it is in G1 races for the winner to cover the final furlong half-a-second faster than all the other runners
Report Sandown June 23, 2022 5:18 PM BST
If we want to evaluate horse races as well as we can, we have to use data, and not just rely on our eyes alone. Fortunately, sectional time analyses are now available for all our courses using ATR and Racing TV, so the concerns we had before using a stop watch, can now be more accurately measured using electronic measured and GPS.

During Ascot week last week, the fastest finishing times (last 2f) were posted by these horses
Baaeed 23.1 (8S) Tues
Nature Strip 23.35 (5S) Tues
Bradsell 23.52 (6S) Tues
State of Rest 23.58 (10R) Wed
Bay Bridge 23.58 (10R) Wed
Thesis 23.78 (8S) Thurs
Kyprios 23.0 (20R) Thurs
Claymore 23.58 (10R)Thurs
Inspiral 23.87 (8R) Fri
Rohaan 23.61 (6S)

Obviously, weight carried and going differences need to be factored in, as well as distance & R v S course, but in terms of sheer speed assessment, our eyes are not as reliable as electronic timing.
Report duffy June 23, 2022 5:29 PM BST
and the pace set throughout
Report Figgis June 23, 2022 5:52 PM BST
How many of the opposition fillies arrived there in peak form? Probably Spendarella, but I don't know how good she is. The third and fourth had put up rubbish performances in a substandard Guineas, and Tenebrism was extremely weak in the market. While Cachet certainly wasn't a good Guineas winner her form had already taken a dip in France. Not too surprising only fourteen days after the hard fought Newmarket win. She certainly didn't run to form at Ascot. Despite it being a substandard Guineas I don't believe Honey Girl would've finished a close second there.
Report A_T June 23, 2022 7:05 PM BST
I don't see the point trying to apply an objective approach if you're then going to throw in arbitrary opinions on which horses you think ran to form and which didn't

also a list of final furlong furlong times from all manner of races from 5f to 24f tells us little - the first 4 in the Gold Cup ran faster times then Inspiral for the final furlong - but she ran faster times for the preceding 4

Inspiral ran the final furling 0.5 secs faster than any other horse in her race (which had classic winners) - how often does that happen in a G1 flat race? unbeaten now in 5 and daylight behind her every time
Report Figgis June 23, 2022 7:17 PM BST
if you're then going to throw in arbitrary opinions on which horses you think ran to form and which didn't

It's a direct question (and my own answer) to the people who keep saying she hammered a top class field.
Report Sandown June 23, 2022 9:30 PM BST
how often does that happen in a G1 flat race

Every time the winner comes from the rear which is frequently. 0.5 second is only  3 lengths so its easy enough to answer for yourself by looking up the records using RP results page. Often the front runners have gone too fast a pace and run much slower in the final couple of furlongs. Its that which creates the illusion of a horse winning by flying home. That happened in Inspiral's race at Ascot, but please believe me,I am not knocking Inspiral, just pointing out that relative performance differs from absolute performance.To be a top class horse she still has around 7lbs to find on collateral ratings and many well do so. But she won't need to if she only meets inferior horses. Time will tell just how good she is.
Report A_T June 23, 2022 9:57 PM BST
winning the race by 3 lengths is not the same thing as covering the final furlong in a time 0.5 secs faster than every other horse in the race.

agree that running an even pace is what made Inspiral look so good. Which begs the question why bring up all the other Ascot horses finishing 2f times without any context.

I would be genuinely interested to know how often at level weights a horse has covered the final furlong of a G1 flat race 0.5 secs faster than all the others. I suspect not easy to find this data.
Report Sandown June 23, 2022 10:22 PM BST
RP comparison of Top Speed and Collateral ratings for Inspiral.

Please note that she has not yet posted a G1 TS figure which would have to be in 3 figures (110+) really to qualify. STo adte, 94 is her highest TS rating.

Her RPR of 123 is a G1 figure posted for her Ascot run. On this evidence, I have no qualms about rating her as a G1 horse but she has of yet not put up a time performance which indicates that she  might be capable of reaching a RPR rating of around  130 which she would have to, to qualify as one of the best ever, but she is not far off say 126 RPR  which would put her in the top bracket.

For comparison, Enable rated 117 TS 129 RPR,Zarvava 123 TS, 129 RPR, Treve 115 TS  131 RPR. At the moment, Inspiral is someway off on TS and until she proves that she can run at least 20lbs faster, I can't in all honesty rate her as "sensational" but people will believe what they want to believe,  which is fair enough.



DATE/CSE        DIST. GNG.    WGT / HDGR        OR    TS    RPR



17Jun22 Asc rnd C13yG1F 284K    1m    GF        115    94    123

08Oct21Nmk row C12yG1F 284K    1m    GS        110    94    116
09Sep21Don str C12yG2F 64K    1m    GF        104    91    110
22Jul21San C12yLF 24K    7f    GF    9-0        —    70    104
26Jun21Nmk july C42yMdF 4K    7f    GF        —    43    88
Report Figgis June 23, 2022 10:31 PM BST
I would be genuinely interested to know how often at level weights a horse has covered the final furlong of a G1 flat race 0.5 secs faster than all the others

If we're talking about sectionals that are out there in the public domain then there isn't a lot we can point to. Nevertheless we only need to go back 2 years to the very same race to find that Alpine Star ran .4 sec quicker than all the other fillies. A decent filly but hardly a world beater.
Report Sandown June 23, 2022 10:37 PM BST
AT. I gave you context, distance, course, going.

The point of looking at the final 2f is that is where a horse is asked for maximum effort and is a good metric for speed. Stamina is another issue. The point of using the top 10 finishers, irrespective of distance run, shows that Inspiral's finisghing kick was not exceptional. There were 9 other horses which finished faster.

Of course, the overall time matters as well and there were 12 other horses on the week  which put up a higher TS figure, taking into account age, distance, going, weight carried. Inspiral looked good because all the 11 others around her were slowing as much she was finishing fast.
Report impossible123 June 24, 2022 4:21 PM BST
The Gosdens reckoned more to come from Inspiral before the race. This time no %age intimated. Inspiral was visually impressive but will need to prove it against Homeless Songs, I think, hopefully in The Falmouth.
Report cryoftruth June 24, 2022 8:38 PM BST
It's a direct question (and my own answer) to the people who keep saying she hammered a top class field.

I suppose that’s right but …

She has utterly hammered every field she has met, surely something she has hammered has been a bit quicker than a tree???
Report A_T June 24, 2022 8:49 PM BST
I'm not sure what horses are expected to be in a race restricted to 3yo fillies? I mean the winners of the guineas, cheveley park and pouliches plus an unbeaten America horse isn't too bad is it? Miesque and Zarkava have retired I'm afraid.
Report Figgis June 24, 2022 8:54 PM BST
surely something she has hammered has been a bit quicker than a tree

Again you're confusing the statement that a filly is a good up to scratch Gp1 filly with the implication that she is subpar.
Report penzance June 24, 2022 9:16 PM BST
Inspiral put a GP1 field to the sword on her
seasonal reappearance.She's an excellent filly.
Report Sandown June 24, 2022 9:24 PM BST
I think that we can all agree that Inspiral is an excellent filly, a G1 filly. The issue,though, is whether she is a top class G1 horse who can be put into a super bracket. Not yet , is my view, but if she can improve considerably on that performance, which she might well do, then my view will change.
Report A_T June 24, 2022 9:39 PM BST
agree - until raced outside it's age and gender class noone should be crowning any super horse. But Inspiral does look very exciting - would be good to see her vs Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes but she doesn't appear to be entered. Falmouth Stakes would just be a penalty kick.
Report Figgis June 24, 2022 9:53 PM BST
I suppose it depends on how long you've been following the sport or how short your memory is. I remember similar fillies to this, Gossamer for example, being prematurely acclaimed a superstar off the back of visually impressive performances but no better than par for the grade in substance. The punters who think Inspiral is as good as the colts might be proved right. Well done to them if they're correct. After all, it's all about being ahead of the market rather than following it. It's just that with all the hype she's already going to be priced like she's the real deal, so her backers will need to be very, very confident in her ability in order to beat the book.
Report penzance June 24, 2022 10:13 PM BST
Gossamer were'nt 5/5 for a start,she got well btn
in the Guineas,then won in Ireland.
Report Figgis June 24, 2022 10:36 PM BST
I know Gossamer was beaten in the Guineas, but she obviously didn't run her race. I don't hold one poor run against a horse, or put too much store in remaining unbeaten, especially when the horse in question has only raced once as a 3yo. I'm not trying to change anyone's opinion, just giving my own. Personally I hope everyone thinks she's the second coming and backs her accordingly, the more the merrier Wink
Report penzance June 24, 2022 10:45 PM BST
Who's saying she's the second coming?
She's unbeaten in 5 and some on here are giving
her the credit she deserves.
Report Figgis June 24, 2022 11:08 PM BST
I've said she's an up to scratch fully deserved Gp1 filly, that's credit enough for me. Some are saying that isn't praise enough, which must mean they think she's exceptional by Gp1 standards. I'm just saying I don't believe she is.
Report penzance June 24, 2022 11:30 PM BST
Yep,the games all about differing opinions.
   GL
Report A_T June 25, 2022 10:07 AM BST
Personally I hope everyone thinks she's the second coming and backs her accordingly, the more the merrier

so Figgis you'll be laying her next time?
Report Figgis June 25, 2022 10:56 AM BST
Depends on her future races and if her betters have hard races beforehand. But as things stand if she were to meet HS or Coroebus I'd be backing against her with confidence.
Report impossible123 June 25, 2022 4:52 PM BST
Despite Gosden indicating Inspiral would come on for the race she did look fit by the paddock watchers. Maybe she was fitter than what her trainer had alluded to prior the race.
Report cryoftruth June 29, 2022 11:40 AM BST
Hope to God the owners insist on the best jockey - Frankie riding her.

Actually hope that they remove her and send her to a stable that shows an amount of decency and loyalty to their jockeys rather than shouting in public and sacking them willly-nilly.
Report impossible123 June 29, 2022 2:46 PM BST
Indeed. I hope so too. I'd not want my horses to be trained by Gosden junior when there are more experienced and proven trainers around. Cheveley Park did remove their horses from Elliot post that "photocall".

But, Gosden snr is a very smooth and at times economic talker, and persuasive individual.
Report brandyontherocks June 29, 2022 7:23 PM BST
And proven top drawer trainer.
Whether you like how he has handled this situation. The job he does, a paid trainer, he is very good at.
Report duffy June 30, 2022 4:25 PM BST
I fully expect Dettori to ride Inspiral and that is precisely why Gosden used the term sabbatical, it's because he knows that to all intents and purposes the relationship is done accept for one fly in the ointment and the term sabbatical suggests that Cheveley Park weren't on board when Gosden would have put it to them to jock Dettori off.
Report impossible123 June 30, 2022 11:05 PM BST
If so, I think Dettori would have been told either by Mr Gosden or Cheveley Park. I think "sabbatical" was Mr Gosden's attempt at saving face after his immature and unprofessional public criticism of Dettori post Ascot. But, it still meant Dettori had been let go (or sacked).
Report impossible123 July 2, 2022 4:56 PM BST
Mr Gosden still unwilling to commit a jockey for Inspiral next week. Bloody heck it's only horseracing!
Report duffy July 5, 2022 2:08 PM BST
As expected Keeps the ride on Inspiral, with Emily Upjohn thrown in for good measure, perhaps, after the Eclipse, it's a case of better the devil you know.
Report A_T July 5, 2022 2:50 PM BST
would guess input from the owners
Report impossible123 July 5, 2022 11:49 PM BST
I think Gosden and Dettori need each other professionally. Is there any one better riding the Gosden's charges? An overwhelming no!
Report impossible123 July 6, 2022 7:35 PM BST
A walk-in-the-park on friday in the Falmouth Stakes.
Report penzance July 6, 2022 10:53 PM BST
It looks that way.
Thinking of backing Prosperous Voyage in the without Mkt.
That Ascot run was too bad to be true.I'm sure she's better
than that.
Report impossible123 July 8, 2022 9:49 PM BST
I hoped you backed Prosperous Voyage at 16/1. She won on merit after past by Inspiral.
Report penzance July 10, 2022 6:34 PM BST
She did that well,no I never backed her.
With Teneberism winning today that's 3 different
horses to come out of the 1000G and win GP1s.
Report impossible123 July 10, 2022 7:04 PM BST
Given what Inspiral is prone to and her handlers not on top of her predicament I'd back Homeless Songs on softish going any where and any day; Tenebrism deserves to win in France however, I'd not back her over 8f. The Jean Prat proves the French fillies are carp this year.

I hope to see Homeless Songs, Inspiral and Prosperous Voyage in the Matron Stakes on 10th Sept.
Report impossible123 July 14, 2022 11:01 AM BST
AOB's chickened out with Tuesday. A walk-in-the-park for Emily Upjohn in the Irish Oaks or will the Gosdens achieve a "double whammy" and do another Inspiral?
Report brandyontherocks July 14, 2022 8:14 PM BST
Chickened out !!!!!?????
Report impossible123 July 14, 2022 9:40 PM BST
Tuesday will probably get a drubbing from Emily Upjohn, if turning up. I think Emily Upjohn will give Westover a run in the King George, if she misses the Irish Oaks for whatever reason.
Report impossible123 July 15, 2022 6:15 PM BST
AOB must have been cursing like mad - he withdrew Tuesday at the final dec - given Emily Upjohn is unable to make The Curragh due to transport issue afterall.

I hope Magical Lagoon wins for Mrs Harrington.
Report impossible123 August 9, 2022 3:56 PM BST
Inspiral is ducking Homeless Songs in the Matron Stakes. The former is heading for the Jacques le Marois instead. I hope Inspiral and Homeless Songs will meet at the Champions meeting in Newmarket in October.
Report penzance August 9, 2022 4:40 PM BST
She's ducking nothing,she'll be taking on the colts
in France.
Report impossible123 August 9, 2022 5:07 PM BST
What distinguished colts? Baaeed? I'd have thought the Matron Stakes against her main adversary ie Homeless Songs. Allowance plays a major part, I guess.
Report A_T August 9, 2022 5:16 PM BST
Coroebus and Native Trail are still in the Jacques le Marois - although Appleby was talking about 10f again for the latter
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