Paddy Power Handicap Chase 14 Nov

I’m interested in Brelan D’As 20’s and Master Tommytucker 33’s, but I’ve already bet a couple, so have to be careful....

Midnight Shadow 25’s
Belami Des Pictons 33’s EW 5pl

Kauto Riko has a good record first up

Very competitive as normal and can see it being a compressend handicap, making it even tougher. Agree about Belami Des Pictons, he's on a nice mark. The only other on my radar is Good Boy Bobby, who ran a cracking race at Cheltenham last season, looked good lto; NTD targets this race and the meeting in general, 16/1.

Initial thought was it looked a little light in terms of quality.

Second glance suggests the complete opposite.

Looking back at last years thread,there was a strong stat in terms of ratings,9/11 had been rated between 139-148 on OR.

Happy Diva continued that winning off 143,the 2nd was rated 138,warthog was a lowly 132.

Decent course form also a big positive,just how stiff these fences remain might be a question for another day,they do not look as imposing as I remember from many a Festival visit.

So,looking for something with decent course form,not shown its hand fully,preferably below 11-00 st,and an 8 yr old or below,sounds easy.

No idea at this stage what that final field will include,the other big factor for me will be jockey bookings.

Both this race and the welsh national were won with claimers aboard,just two examples where it could be argued, did that make a difference to the final result ?

The one horse that interests me most long term,is Mister Fisher.His rating would be way above that of recent winners,should he take up that entry.Looking forward to what route Hendo takes with this horse,far from the finnished article last season,potentially top class with natural progression,I like him.

Lets hope plenty stand their ground,always an informative race.

In terms of rating Saint Sonnet fits the bill on 147 but he's a ludicrous price at 7/1 fav and little experience.

I thought Al Dancer and Mister Fisher were both interesting but their ORs are the mid 150's which is a fraction too high imo.

Maybe Slate House at a big price as he looked liked a good thing before tipping up last year. He's higher in the weights but he'll still get a couple of pounds from some of them.

Mister Fisher would definitely be interesting if he runs but I’ve backed Simply The Betts at 10,8/1.
Has to defy a big weight but his form with Imperial Aura was franked again yesterday.

Happy Diva 33-1 e.w.1st 4 b365.

Ran well, finished 5th in what looked strong Wetherby race, needed that, beat in same race before winning this last year. Doesn't look well in with a few who oppose but she keeps improving and loves Cheltenham. Sure to turn up barring injury and 33's looks too big.

Lots of dangers. Nichols targets this. Aso well h'capped with Happy Diva on previous form, 13lb better than when beating HD at chelt. previously.

I'll be looking again when things settle and we know who's turning up.

Yes,the posh one does hold the weight card.

Does that sway her into running more than one ?

I still have issues thinking of VW forking some freshly laid who flung into a barrow.

Of course she could claim off the top one,the double bluff you might call it.

Happy Diva ..... probably my favourite mare in training.

When she is primed,gives absolutely everything,Is there any more in the locker, rising 10 ?

Lovely ride in last years renewal,under-rated pilot in my humble opinion,formidable pair together.

5 day decs might shed a little light,nothing stands out this end just yet.

Waiting for 5 day declarations given that most of the big yards have multiple entries e.g Paul Nicholls x7. Looks like there will be good ground which often favours the upper end of the handicap but watching this space for now.

Good Boy Bobby, Mister Fisher, and Al Dancer are all closely matched, and you know NTD's two will be primed for this, they have both ran already.

However I am going to have an eachway punt on Mister Fisger at 12/1 ew with 5 places available. If he has a clear round he'd simply not be out of the first 4. Nothing looks well handicapped with the possible exception of Saint Sonnet but that's only because we've not seen him much.

Colin Tizzard has had a slow start but his horses are improving for a run. That makes Slate House who I backed last year a negative but The Russian Doyen had a nice spin over hurdles last month and Vision des Flos ran OK behind Greanateen at Exeter. Both have form to be well in the mix if the runs have put them right.

Have alighted on Spiritofthegames mainly in the hope that the better ground , which seems likely , will produce the extra that is needed .Has won four times after a break .

^I considered him but he ran a shocker in this first time up last year.

Starting to really fancy Mister F now the weather forecast looks favourable and NJH has had 6 winners this weekend. When you look back at his Marsh Chase run he's staying on at the end, not slowing, and it's worth bearing in mind just how lightly raced/immature he is compared to the three horses who finished in front of him. Samcro age 8 and a Ballymore winner, Melon age 8 plus runner-up in two Champion Hurdles, Faugheen age 12 etc etc with numerous Group 1s. If Mister F only improves a little bit for age/maturity he's going to be right there. 12/1 still available.

Weather forecast changed and a lot of rain now forecast so will wait until Saturday morning before finalising picks. Suffice to say it looks extremely competitive and I think the going will be an important factor for several of them.

Spiritofthegames  for me

I have now backed both Tizzard runners in the PP for small money. Slate House seems a big price now. I also fancy Eldorado Allen big time.

Boom! Eldorado Allen for the Arkle as well.

settled on Saint Sonnet and Al Dancer. Both e-w x5 places.

The annual puzzle gets no easier.

Ground change already,much slower than predicted.

Settled on two at the prices,not too difficult to make a case for most of them.

Domain De Lisle.... has the right profile,ground should be ok,liked his comeback over hurdles.

Aso .....Has the weight for a reason,decent record fresh,dropped a few pounds,over-priced.

No great confidence,best of luck everyone

paulo47  unlucky, thought we'd got it coming to the last.

Bit more rain and a few more yards......

Or a bit less and a few less ...

Was referring to the gallant 4th placed horse who ran his usual good race on his first outing of the season. We felt he might have been a lot closer if there had been a touch more rain.

That was a fine effort HKA.

Very interesting profile for a 9 yr old,first time back from wind surgery.

Looks like he performs best with a decent break between races.

Does that mean he is fragile,or possibly a real trier who gives everything on the track.

Proper winter ground looks right up his street,given a clear run health wise.

Very lively contender for the race in December over similar distance at HQ,should he go that way.

Fine training performance too,very best of luck with him.

WD winners if there were any! I was getting hopeful for The Russian Doyen 4 out but he stopped very quickly.

Thanks N,

if you have a look at his form he’s won 3 times first up for the season. Last season he came 2nd in the Peterborough first up. He’s not fragile, he just needs a fair break between runs. He ran at the festival in March as an afterthought really as we knew that the season was shutting down. He’d had a really tough run 2 weeks before over 3m on filthy ground. He might go to Aintree in April but there’s a lot of time for that not to happen and he’s rated to get in for most years, if someone was to offer me odds on him jumping round I’d definitely take them - not wishing to curse him now as he’s a sound jumper.

Thanks reply HKA ....... Sorry for delay in getting back to you.

"Fragile" was not the best choice,agreed.

What I do like,he appears to produce a decent level of form going both ways,that gives you options.

Watched most of his races now,Kelso run I guess was inconclusive,on that ground.

Mark remains unchanged on the RP site,not the worst news considering how much ground he made up.

Hope he has come out of that ok,nothing wrong with setting the bar high re Aintree.

Of course,you could always take advantage of that hurdles mark

Watch with interest for future entries,very best of luck going forward.

That Kelso run was interesting, we think he would have been a lot closer if they had to jump all the fences. Think he needs to get to 144 to get a run in April.

This Saturday Cheltenham 1.50 with Hughes back on him

Good luck HK.

Going will be verging on unraceable (if it goes ahead) which should suit him.

Thanks HKA ..... Best laid plans and all that.

No other entries at the moment according to RP.

142 got in off bottom weight in last years plate,would the new course play to his jumping strengths ?

Hugely frustrating I would imagine,lets hope he can go on from that seasonal return.

He's in 2 at Cheltenham as we don't think we'll get into the GN off 142. I think he's still well treated and maybe the ULtima will suit him, he's well and he'll be fresh don't need the ground to dry up though.

Maximum field of 24 for the first handicap of the meeting.

KR sits at 36th on 142,with a lovely racing weight of 10-08,7 others on the same mark.

Has the ground gone against him ? Will it be well watered on day 1 especially.

One of those horses who could well out-run his current odds.

All The Best HKA on whatever you decide,love to see him take his chance.

No decision as yet, the target was for the GN but he’s 69th in the list so it’s highly unlikely he’ll get that. As to the ground, arguably his best run which was the Peterborough which was g/s so don’t think the ground has gone against him. I believe he just needs to be fresh when he runs so as long as he’s had a decent break he runs well. Also if you take that Peterborough run he’s very well weighted off 142.

Will be going to Aintree....getting closer to 40th in the list now.

Up to 52nd after today’s forfeit stage....going to be close. He’s also in The Topham just in case we miss out.

He also raced not too far off the pace in that re-arranged  affair.

That would be my only observation pre-race,exaggerated hold up tactics seldom end well around here.

If he does get in HKA .... I might have to tell the story of the GN winning owner I met a few years back.

Fingers crossed and all that.

Up to 49th now.....it’s the hope that kills you.

44....any chance ?

I don't think we'll get in....but it could a have a silver lining as I think we get BH riding on Friday. Think he's got a decent chance in the Topham

Nice one, all the best

Thanks, looks like BH is going to Sedge instead so we’ve lost him.

So close to making the final line-up HKA

Lots in his favour later today,can see him going really well,open looking contest.

Very best of luck.

Many thanks, he schooled nicely. Just hope he doesn’t get too far back, I do think if he takes to the fences he’ll go well as I think he’s well handicapped. Touch wood he gets round safely and does himself some justice.

Missed the start and was too far back to get into the race, fences were ok

As long as he,s ok,thats the main thing.

Searching gallop from the outset,plenty were found out early on,one of the hardest tracks to come from behind.

GL