Paddy Power Handicap Chase 14 Nov

Kauto Riko has a good record first up

Initial thought was it looked a little light in terms of quality.

Second glance suggests the complete opposite.

Looking back at last years thread,there was a strong stat in terms of ratings,9/11 had been rated between 139-148 on OR.

Happy Diva continued that winning off 143,the 2nd was rated 138,warthog was a lowly 132.

Decent course form also a big positive,just how stiff these fences remain might be a question for another day,they do not look as imposing as I remember from many a Festival visit.

So,looking for something with decent course form,not shown its hand fully,preferably below 11-00 st,and an 8 yr old or below,sounds easy.

No idea at this stage what that final field will include,the other big factor for me will be jockey bookings.

Both this race and the welsh national were won with claimers aboard,just two examples where it could be argued, did that make a difference to the final result ?

The one horse that interests me most long term,is Mister Fisher.His rating would be way above that of recent winners,should he take up that entry.Looking forward to what route Hendo takes with this horse,far from the finnished article last season,potentially top class with natural progression,I like him.

Lets hope plenty stand their ground,always an informative race.

Mister Fisher would definitely be interesting if he runs but I’ve backed Simply The Betts at 10,8/1.
Has to defy a big weight but his form with Imperial Aura was franked again yesterday.

Yes,the posh one does hold the weight card.

Does that sway her into running more than one ?

I still have issues thinking of VW forking some freshly laid who flung into a barrow.

Of course she could claim off the top one,the double bluff you might call it.

Happy Diva ..... probably my favourite mare in training.

When she is primed,gives absolutely everything,Is there any more in the locker, rising 10 ?

Lovely ride in last years renewal,under-rated pilot in my humble opinion,formidable pair together.

5 day decs might shed a little light,nothing stands out this end just yet.

Good Boy Bobby, Mister Fisher, and Al Dancer are all closely matched, and you know NTD's two will be primed for this, they have both ran already.

However I am going to have an eachway punt on Mister Fisger at 12/1 ew with 5 places available. If he has a clear round he'd simply not be out of the first 4. Nothing looks well handicapped with the possible exception of Saint Sonnet but that's only because we've not seen him much.

Have alighted on Spiritofthegames mainly in the hope that the better ground , which seems likely , will produce the extra that is needed .Has won four times after a break .

Starting to really fancy Mister F now the weather forecast looks favourable and NJH has had 6 winners this weekend. When you look back at his Marsh Chase run he's staying on at the end, not slowing, and it's worth bearing in mind just how lightly raced/immature he is compared to the three horses who finished in front of him. Samcro age 8 and a Ballymore winner, Melon age 8 plus runner-up in two Champion Hurdles, Faugheen age 12 etc etc with numerous Group 1s. If Mister F only improves a little bit for age/maturity he's going to be right there. 12/1 still available.

Spiritofthegames  for me

Boom! Eldorado Allen for the Arkle as well.

The annual puzzle gets no easier.

Ground change already,much slower than predicted.

Settled on two at the prices,not too difficult to make a case for most of them.

Domain De Lisle.... has the right profile,ground should be ok,liked his comeback over hurdles.

Aso .....Has the weight for a reason,decent record fresh,dropped a few pounds,over-priced.

No great confidence,best of luck everyone

Bit more rain and a few more yards......

That was a fine effort HKA.

Very interesting profile for a 9 yr old,first time back from wind surgery.

Looks like he performs best with a decent break between races.

Does that mean he is fragile,or possibly a real trier who gives everything on the track.

Proper winter ground looks right up his street,given a clear run health wise.

Very lively contender for the race in December over similar distance at HQ,should he go that way.

Fine training performance too,very best of luck with him.

Thanks N,

if you have a look at his form he’s won 3 times first up for the season. Last season he came 2nd in the Peterborough first up. He’s not fragile, he just needs a fair break between runs. He ran at the festival in March as an afterthought really as we knew that the season was shutting down. He’d had a really tough run 2 weeks before over 3m on filthy ground. He might go to Aintree in April but there’s a lot of time for that not to happen and he’s rated to get in for most years, if someone was to offer me odds on him jumping round I’d definitely take them - not wishing to curse him now as he’s a sound jumper.

That Kelso run was interesting, we think he would have been a lot closer if they had to jump all the fences. Think he needs to get to 144 to get a run in April.

Good luck HK.

Going will be verging on unraceable (if it goes ahead) which should suit him.

He's in 2 at Cheltenham as we don't think we'll get into the GN off 142. I think he's still well treated and maybe the ULtima will suit him, he's well and he'll be fresh don't need the ground to dry up though.

No decision as yet, the target was for the GN but he’s 69th in the list so it’s highly unlikely he’ll get that. As to the ground, arguably his best run which was the Peterborough which was g/s so don’t think the ground has gone against him. I believe he just needs to be fresh when he runs so as long as he’s had a decent break he runs well. Also if you take that Peterborough run he’s very well weighted off 142.

Up to 52nd after today’s forfeit stage....going to be close. He’s also in The Topham just in case we miss out.