Horse Antepost
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National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
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1.55 Navan. 1pt win. Silver Sheen. 10/1. Bfred
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Unlucky again Facts, unreal those 2nds you’re getting. Did you notice less EW’s from me this year? Doing another one here, but I’ve definitely cut way back.
1355 Navan Battle of Midway 1pt Win 16’s (B365) Campeador 0.7pts EW 28’s 5pls (Boyle) |
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Selections being placed, at least show yor methodology of selection is sound.
Yes, there is frustration when those 2nds don't win, but in the long run, the winners will come. After a sequence of double price placements, I tend to revisit my betting records. , and ask myself the question ( again). Would I be better off ( more profit), betting each way.? The answer is no. I bet level stakes to win. Assume 1 pt is the stake. If I bet ew and remain with an outlay of 1 point, that means the stake is 1/2 point ew. A return if placed, but if horse wins, I've only had half of my usual stake on. One could then rectify this by betting 1pt ew , but then I'm doubling my outlay.. Yes it means with a win I'm ensuring my 1 pt stake is on( and I'm getting the place return too ). But I've staked 2 points. If horse fails to place I've lost twice my usual stake, equating to two losing bets. And, if the horse wins, I could have bet 2 pts win ! Revisiting betting records, over years, my method of selection, returns a greater profit by betting level stakes to win only rather than ew. Keep the faith  |
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Interesting write up Facts.
I think youre spot on in your conviction.... Some great work on here recently. |
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Thank you js, appreciated.
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Saturday
3.15 Doncaster. Musical Slave 1pt win 8/1 Give Me A Copper 1pt win 14/1 Both BOG. b 3 6 5 |
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Good post Facts, makes a lot of sense
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Thanks Fab. Hope so !
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You only have to look at all the e/w offers on B 3 6 5 to know that they want
their mug punters to bet e/w more. Having said that...I tend to go e/w once the price is double digits. Coward. |
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1515 Doncaster
Give Me A Copper 1.4pts Win 18’s Yorkhill 1.9pt Win 20’s Both Boyles |
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1405 Doncaster - Rayna’s World 0.8pt Win 14’s (B365)
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3:15 Donc Musical Slave 1.5pt ew slybet 9/2
Triumph Hurdle- Tritonic 1.5pt ew 12-1 var |
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2.40 Donc
Fern Hill 1pt win @ 10/1 (B3.6.5) Portstorm 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 (Ski, 5plcs) |
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Champion Hurdle - Buveur D’Air 0.9pt Win 20’s NRNB (PP)
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Nice place there Mac
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ta, one for the ew backers
 3.15 Donc Canelo 1pt win @ 7/1 (B3.6.5) |
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3-15 donc
Takingrisks 0.5pt Rockys Treasure 0.5pt WP GI ...... Very decent return. |
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noc. Enters with a selection at the last minure and bags a 40/1 sp winner ( bigger bfsp ?)
Very well played. Excellent tipping |
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Wd noc got to be one of the biggest returns on here this season price wise...good hit pal
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noc
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BFsp. 63.58
  Trust you were on noc ? |
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Belter of a hit Noc, and well played Mac
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1545 Naas - Ilikedwayurthinkin 0.7pts Win 10’s (B365)
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+7.84
rock treasure -0.5 takingrisks +31.29 (63.58) +38.63 0 IP Many thanks all ...... Cracking effort for a 12yr old,real credit to his trainer. Facts .... Average odds around 59 this end,much nearer the true price of the beast. Potters Hedger week before returned 21 bfsp,he was freely available at 36 morning of the race. It does even out over time,it,s the big meetings/races where the price difference can be huge. WALK IN THE MILL ...... Deserves a mention,delighted to see him retired in one piece,one particular poster on here will have very fond memories of him. |
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WITM
 -6.5 / 1 IP Fern Hill -1 Portstorm +2.8 Canelo -1 -5.7 / 1 IP |
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Morning GI
Portstorm returned 50,thought most of them were BOG ? Lots to discuss coming weeks,how do you see things as we stand re Festival? Have they got drainage problems,surely nature cannot win the battle with Simon. About time the northern/scottish yards redressed the balance,is it just about deep pockets. I have no doubts they can train good horses,can any of them take that crucial next step up the ladder. Howard Johnson and the likes of Doumen sending them over,some wonderful horses from that pair alone. Should we even be discussing racing in the current crisis. If we can spend extra time on the Koral Cup this year please,beginning to bug me that one. Onwards  |
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Afternoon, I thought that also, but apparently if Ski have extra places in a race then BOG does not apply, its in their T&C's somewhere I was told, I did have a moan
 We should discuss racing, and anything else, its sh!t what's happening but we've got to keep going is my feeling. It takes the mind off things for sure. All the money and the good horses are elsewhere, not up here. Last SCO winner was Brindisi Breeze, a good few years ago now. I'd love to see Nick Alexander or Sandy Thomson get some good ones. I used to follow Howard Johnson back in the day, especially when Wylie started investing and sending him top horses, they used to run a lot of them at Kelso. Wylie talked up the North a lot, bit disappointing where he sent his horses after Howard got banned. It would take a few like him to invest up here for things to change I think. It is a little worrying with Cheltenham waterlogged, they will be doing everything they can for sure. I only have 2 anti-post bets, my lowest ever heading onto the festival. Do have a few marked up, always keen to chat them over and the Koral Kup. |
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Yep ....As Pete alluded to earlier,who do these offers benefit?
I suppose you could also argue that about here,just how much is punter V punter,I have my doubts. I digress,it does seem strange not one real top class horse has emerged,hopefully that will change. All 4 championship races look open to me,next weekend might have a bearing on that,we will see. Now,you would not be keeping a few dark ones from me I hope As you say,it is tough,I would agree we all need something to look forward to. More the merrier when it comes to sussing out them handicaps,same every year. Two more than me re Ante-Post,just can,t trust any of them. Your due ...... stick with it budd. |
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Koral Cup a terrible race for me guys, but I have bet Champagne Platinum this year “any race”, with a view to this race, so that’s the first one for you to avoid.
Kim Muir - Escaria Ten 3.3 pts win 10’s (PP NRNB) B/F +58.02 IP 12.5 Gun Digger -0.9 Burrows Saint -1 Battle of Midway -1 Give Me A Copper -1.4 Rayna’s World -0.8 Ilikedwayurthinkin -0.7 Buveur D’Air -0.9 Escaria Ten -3.3 Magic Tricks (NRNB) +0.9 Oscar Sam +6.3 Campeador +3.22 C/F +58.44 IP 15.8 |
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IP total wrong, forgot to take off Thyestes bets, should read...
+58.44 IP 12.9 |
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3-05 warwick
Happy Diva 0.5pt Destinee Royale 0.5pt |
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Wincanton
1335 - Sergeant 0.5pts EW 66’s 1410 - Regal Flow 0.8pt EW 40’s Both Boyles |
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1410 Wincanton - Time To Get Up 0.8pt Win 14’s (888)
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Matheson Chase - Or Jaune De Somoza 0.5pts EW 6pls (Sky)
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Matheson Chase - Or Jaune De Somoza 0.5pts EW 66’s 6pls (Sky)
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Lovely hit Fab ..... VWP
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Well played fab
Relentless  |
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Certainly no lubricants with you fab
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some racing tomorrow to get stuck into, I can see me losing 10 points.
Well played Fab, you're in great form. |
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Harry
Thanks guys, and agree Mac, great days racing, I’ve got 19 picked out right now, and struggling to jettison a few. Edinburgh National - Little Bruce 0.9pt Win 20’s (B365) Cotswold - Yala Enki 1pt Win 15-2 (Boyles) Ladbroke - He’s A Hardy Bloke 1pt Win 11’s (B365) |