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cryoftruth
17 Jul 20 16:16
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
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Another win for Enable?

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Replies: 55
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 17 Jul 20 18:41
Fill yer boots Cool
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Jul 20 21:05
In view of what she has produced before I was far from impressed with Enable's comeback run in the Eclipse. I've seen elsewhere Ghaiyyath has been rated a good Eclipse winner but I have him a little below average. I see Timeform said Enable's effort was as good as her win in the race last year but I have it 6lbs below, and 9lbs below her better run in the King George. Obviously it's possible she can come on for the run. I think Gosden said she was only 85% fit and if that's true then, as last year, she'll be very hard to beat. Gosden has said it's just taking a bit longer to get her fully fit now she's an older filly. Possibly. However, it's also possible that he's optimistically putting a positive spin on a filly who has simply lost a bit of speed with age. Anyway, I've never been a fan of backing 6yos in the top races and will be opposing her.
By:
driver2
When: 18 Jul 20 15:46
If the ground is fast I'll be giving Anthony van Dyck another chance if he runs. I think he ran very well in the Coronation Cup behind a great winner in Gaiyyath and I'm sure there's a good race in him this year.
By:
driver2
When: 18 Jul 20 16:36
I've decided not to wait, forecast good for the week ahead and bet365 twisted my arm with 20/1 about Anthony, had to have a little on EW.
By:
A_T
When: 18 Jul 20 20:30
If Japan runs I don't think he'll be far away - there's form with Crystal Ocean that puts him close to Enable - and he may still have improvement in him
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 19 Jul 20 06:13
Will LOVE run?
By:
driver2
When: 19 Jul 20 06:50
I don't think Aiden will take on Enable with Love before the Arc. We'll soon know anyway.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 19 Jul 20 11:20
Yorkshire Oaks for Love is the plan.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 21 Jul 20 11:28
Interesting market with Magical currently second favourite to Enable who is odds on. This suggests to me that Japan may not run as I think he is the only horse with a realistic chance of beating Enable given fast ground and the twelve furlong distance.

At just under 6-1 I couldn`t resist a shilling on Japan but if a non runner would anticipate considerable hardening in price of Enable.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 21 Jul 20 13:52
Once again some one or some people in the know are drip feeding money to lay Japan, now out to 8 on Betfair. This indicates to me that Japan will be a non runner so have taken some 4/5 Enable. Time will tell.
By:
lead on
When: 21 Jul 20 16:18
well,I backed Japan ante post,1/5 3 places @ 6/1 on Sunday so hope that you're not right there,Feltfair....but I've a horrible feeling that you are
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 21 Jul 20 18:22
I hope I`m wrong as well.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 21 Jul 20 20:49
Complete reversal Japan price collapse and Magical out with the washing. Someone has got the wrong end of the stick maybe.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 21 Jul 20 21:02
Perhaps it`s me.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 21 Jul 20 21:11
Theres a strong whiff in the air of the market that you might be right in the regard that Magical has had 5 attempts to beat Enable and failed on everyone, Japan on the other hand with ground conditions possible to suit and the trip might get a bit closer.

Has Magical missed the ferryConfused
By:
driver2
When: 22 Jul 20 02:43
Where do you and FELTFAIR get the opinion that Japan prefers fast ground? He's never wom on anything faster than GOOD ground and ran one of his best ever races in the ARC on VERY SOFT ground! Only Anthony van Dyck and maybe Sovereign have shown marked preference for a fast surface.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 22 Jul 20 11:04
Just a general observation with Galileos.
By:
driver2
When: 22 Jul 20 13:37
It seems to me that most Galileos go on any ground, but if there is an exception in the KG it has to be Anthony van Dyck who's Derby win, Breeders Cup 3rd and Coronation Cup 2nd are probably his best ever races, all on fast ground. I would be surprised if he doesn't run in the KG with the forcasted G/F ground and I would also expect the front running Soverign to be there to ensure that Enable doesn't have it all her own way.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 22 Jul 20 22:16
If She's at her best, she'll win.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Jul 20 08:42
Agree, Japan needs and easier ground to show her best.

If Enable is anywhere near her best she'll walk all over this lot with plenty to spare. Also, only one horse that's worth noting here for The Arc, and that's Enable.
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 23 Jul 20 10:18
rain forecast ?
By:
metro john
When: 23 Jul 20 12:26

Jul 17, 2020 -- 9:05PM, Figgis wrote:


In view of what she has produced before I was far from impressed with Enable's comeback run in the Eclipse. I've seen elsewhere Ghaiyyath has been rated a good Eclipse winner but I have him a little below average. I see Timeform said Enable's effort was as good as her win in the race last year but I have it 6lbs below, and 9lbs below her better run in the King George. Obviously it's possible she can come on for the run. I think Gosden said she was only 85% fit and if that's true then, as last year, she'll be very hard to beat. Gosden has said it's just taking a bit longer to get her fully fit now she's an older filly. Possibly. However, it's also possible that he's optimistically putting a positive spin on a filly who has simply lost a bit of speed with age. Anyway, I've never been a fan of backing 6yos in the top races and will be opposing her.


Morning Figgis, I would tend to agree, the race is almost impossible to even think about having a bet, Japan ran better in last year's Arc than I gave it credit beforehand, last year's 3yrlds looked behind their elders. Japan surprised me last time, it was travelling so much better than Enable at 8-9f, admittedly Japan had the benefit of a previous run, but seemed to have a little more left the tank than perhaps shown?
I will be watching and not betting in the King George, but if I had a gun pointing Japan would probably be the selection. I think the amount of O'Brien runners is a negative for form students and the race.

By:
driver2
When: 23 Jul 20 12:39
Form Students!Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jul 20 23:59
Hi metro john, go on back Japan. You know it's the value Wink
By:
know all
When: 24 Jul 20 09:32
Im a big aiden backer but taking on enable the race becomes very hard to predict, Japan who i got right at york over 1m2f and im still not sure if 1m4f is his best trip but we will see on saturday and it could come down to tactics and judging pace and 8 times out of 10 dettori would beat moore on the same horse with his superior brain skills it could be a race to savior and avoid a bet but enables price would dictate the risk
By:
Figgis
When: 24 Jul 20 14:43
I don't know for sure if Enable will retain all her ability at the age of 6. Personally, I would say it's odds against and I have to oppose her here at odds on.Japan probably needed the run first time out. The problem with the Eclipse run is he ran exactly as fast as his best form (York) last year, with no improvement from 3 to 4. Even though the wfa scale has horses improving in small increments every month, we all know this is rarely the reality. Some horses don't improve at all from 3 to 4, but of those that do I've found most will make a single leap of between 7 and 10lbs, sometimes even more. It might happen first time out or can take a run or two. Found didn't show real improvement until her seventh run as a 4yo.

I've read that maybe Japan will improve for the trip or the ground, but in my view this has no bearing. For example, when Ten Sovereigns was heavily backed for the July Cup last year it was nothing to do with the ground and everything to do with him showing improved form at home. The weight of money behind such market moves isn't because of expert form study. Tabor has a history of paying to have his card marked and now he's having it marked at the most powerful yard in Europe. If Japan improves on Saturday it will be for physical reasons. I thought Magical had a decent chance of gaining revenge on Enable now that it's possible Enable might not be the force she was. On their best runs as older mares I have Enable only 3lbs ahead, so it's not a massive deficit to overturn. Therefore I see it as a big positive for Japan that he has replaced her as the main challenge.

It has to be considered that Coolmore would rather have Japan win here than Magical for obvious financial reasons, so possibly the decision was based more on hope. However, O'Brien has said they think he has progressed since Sandown. Okay, that's not the most bullish statement but it's a bit more than the usual meaningless guff. So I don't know if Japan will finally make the necessary improvement from 3 to 4 on Saturday but at these odds I reckon it's worth the risk.
By:
sageform
When: 24 Jul 20 14:57
Highest prize money of the season and we see 4 runners, just one from GB. Fifth would have paid around £10k! I will probably be watching cricket if it is not raining.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Jul 20 19:11
as said  on the thread earlier enable has probably peaked she may still be good enough but there was only a head between them in the eclipse and the trip should suit both much better tommorow and with age on his side japan could turn the form around  1/2 or 3/1 .i have backed japan and will have a bit more on tommorow may even lay the fav as well .
By:
sageform
When: 24 Jul 20 21:33
Down to 3 runners now. No bet race but I think Enable is capable of making all round Ascot.
By:
A_T
When: 24 Jul 20 22:28
If they let Frankie make the running then Enable won't be headed so I expect Sovereign to set a strong pace with Japan waiting to try to pick up the pieces at the end of the race.
By:
brigust1
When: 25 Jul 20 12:47
Figgis like you I have long believed Magical would have every chance to beat Enable if the circumstances were right and she was given a winning ride. However, I now believe I was wrong. I thought she sat too far back in the 2018 Arc, it was a tactical affair at Churchill Downs which I believed played against her, in the Eclipse the following year she always allowed Enable first run, in the Yorkshire Oaks again she let Enable have first run but in the Arc she had first run and Enable ran past her and beat her easily. She may have sat too close to the leader and the ground may have been a bit softer than she likes but now I don't think she can beat Enable all things being equal. And I guess AOB thinks the same by not running her.
And I am not sure he is giving up one potential winner for another in Japan. Good luck.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 25 Jul 20 13:07
By a complete fluke everything is green. Backed Japan ante-post but due to an alarming drift I assumed he wouldn`t run and backed Enable ante-post Both have shortened dramatically following a host of non runners. Traded both at current odds to eliminate a "Serpentine" event and looking forward to the race.

And yes I am smug.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Jul 20 15:18
Brigust, I still have Magical's Eclipse run last year a couple of pounds below her best. Actually I was surprised she still ran so well as I was expecting more of a dip in form after her earlier runs. Up until Enable's King George win I did think Magical might be capable of beating her, as, even though I was extremely impressed with Enable as a 3yo, I didn't think her 4yo form was as good. However, she ran her best ever race as an older filly in last year's KG. I've seen fillies/mares put up equal performances over shorter trips but that was the fastest performance over 12f I've seen by an older female. So the only chance of Magical beating Enable would be if she met a below par version of her.

Like any of us, O'Brien won't know if Enable can be as good this year, but her last performance gave doubts and he'll be well aware of how difficult it will be for her to maintain that level as a 6yo. I'm sure he thought taking her on again with Magical this year was well worth a go. Japan, like all horses going from 3 to 4, will need to improve from last year to make up for losing the allowance. He was below par first time out this season, where even though he started fav due to previous exploits he was lukewarm in the market. Last time he ran exactly to his 3yo speed figure, so the improvement hadn't come, and again there wasn't a lot of confidence. I think he has the potential to improve 7lbs or more on that if/when he comes to hand.

People can go on about trips and ground but we both know how things work. The main criteria for these decisions is how they're performing at home. That's certainly the main reason why we see the money down. They still won't know if he can beat a top form Enable but I reckon Coolmore are expecting an improved showing from Japan today. Such beliefs don't always prove right, but often they do.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Jul 20 16:44
You were right Brig. Any confidence in Japan was obviously misplaced, as that was clearly a backwards step. However, nothing can be taken away from Enable. I know some will knock her form but, in spite of my efforts to take her on, I believe she's a truly brilliant filly/mare. She put up the joint fastest Oaks performance I've personally ever seen. She also put up the fastest 12f performance I've seen by a mare/older filly, and she's maintained that level as a 6yo. A true great in the formbook and on the clock.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 25 Jul 20 16:45
Figgis, you still haven't got a clue Grin
By:
Charlton2005
When: 25 Jul 20 16:47
Charlton2005
24 Jul 20 21:45
Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 10,006 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
Enable often talked about as the best filly ever, even though in truth she's not even in the top 50. On the other hand if anyone suggested Japan was in the top 1000 ever of anything...


almost literally a 1 horse race, enable should be 1/10. bet accordingly and good luck.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Jul 20 16:48
Hello, I was wondering where the king of aftertimers had gone Wink
By:
Charlton2005
When: 25 Jul 20 16:48
A true great in the formbook

give it up Figgis...really you haven't got a clue!
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Jul 20 16:49
Enable often talked about as the best filly ever, even though in truth she's not even in the top 50

Which 50 fillies would you have ahead of her on form?
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