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cryoftruth
17 Jul 20 16:16
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 5,998 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Another win for Enable?
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Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 July 17, 2020 5:41 PM BST
Fill yer boots Cool
Report Figgis July 17, 2020 8:05 PM BST
In view of what she has produced before I was far from impressed with Enable's comeback run in the Eclipse. I've seen elsewhere Ghaiyyath has been rated a good Eclipse winner but I have him a little below average. I see Timeform said Enable's effort was as good as her win in the race last year but I have it 6lbs below, and 9lbs below her better run in the King George. Obviously it's possible she can come on for the run. I think Gosden said she was only 85% fit and if that's true then, as last year, she'll be very hard to beat. Gosden has said it's just taking a bit longer to get her fully fit now she's an older filly. Possibly. However, it's also possible that he's optimistically putting a positive spin on a filly who has simply lost a bit of speed with age. Anyway, I've never been a fan of backing 6yos in the top races and will be opposing her.
Report driver2 July 18, 2020 2:46 PM BST
If the ground is fast I'll be giving Anthony van Dyck another chance if he runs. I think he ran very well in the Coronation Cup behind a great winner in Gaiyyath and I'm sure there's a good race in him this year.
Report driver2 July 18, 2020 3:36 PM BST
I've decided not to wait, forecast good for the week ahead and bet365 twisted my arm with 20/1 about Anthony, had to have a little on EW.
Report A_T July 18, 2020 7:30 PM BST
If Japan runs I don't think he'll be far away - there's form with Crystal Ocean that puts him close to Enable - and he may still have improvement in him
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 July 19, 2020 5:13 AM BST
Will LOVE run?
Report driver2 July 19, 2020 5:50 AM BST
I don't think Aiden will take on Enable with Love before the Arc. We'll soon know anyway.
Report FELTFAIR July 19, 2020 10:20 AM BST
Yorkshire Oaks for Love is the plan.
Report FELTFAIR July 21, 2020 10:28 AM BST
Interesting market with Magical currently second favourite to Enable who is odds on. This suggests to me that Japan may not run as I think he is the only horse with a realistic chance of beating Enable given fast ground and the twelve furlong distance.

At just under 6-1 I couldn`t resist a shilling on Japan but if a non runner would anticipate considerable hardening in price of Enable.
Report FELTFAIR July 21, 2020 12:52 PM BST
Once again some one or some people in the know are drip feeding money to lay Japan, now out to 8 on Betfair. This indicates to me that Japan will be a non runner so have taken some 4/5 Enable. Time will tell.
Report lead on July 21, 2020 3:18 PM BST
well,I backed Japan ante post,1/5 3 places @ 6/1 on Sunday so hope that you're not right there,Feltfair....but I've a horrible feeling that you are
Report FELTFAIR July 21, 2020 5:22 PM BST
I hope I`m wrong as well.
Report FELTFAIR July 21, 2020 7:49 PM BST
Complete reversal Japan price collapse and Magical out with the washing. Someone has got the wrong end of the stick maybe.
Report FELTFAIR July 21, 2020 8:02 PM BST
Perhaps it`s me.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 July 21, 2020 8:11 PM BST
Theres a strong whiff in the air of the market that you might be right in the regard that Magical has had 5 attempts to beat Enable and failed on everyone, Japan on the other hand with ground conditions possible to suit and the trip might get a bit closer.

Has Magical missed the ferryConfused
Report driver2 July 22, 2020 1:43 AM BST
Where do you and FELTFAIR get the opinion that Japan prefers fast ground? He's never wom on anything faster than GOOD ground and ran one of his best ever races in the ARC on VERY SOFT ground! Only Anthony van Dyck and maybe Sovereign have shown marked preference for a fast surface.
Report FELTFAIR July 22, 2020 10:04 AM BST
Just a general observation with Galileos.
Report driver2 July 22, 2020 12:37 PM BST
It seems to me that most Galileos go on any ground, but if there is an exception in the KG it has to be Anthony van Dyck who's Derby win, Breeders Cup 3rd and Coronation Cup 2nd are probably his best ever races, all on fast ground. I would be surprised if he doesn't run in the KG with the forcasted G/F ground and I would also expect the front running Soverign to be there to ensure that Enable doesn't have it all her own way.
Report Millerracing67 July 22, 2020 9:16 PM BST
If She's at her best, she'll win.
Report impossible123 July 23, 2020 7:42 AM BST
Agree, Japan needs and easier ground to show her best.

If Enable is anywhere near her best she'll walk all over this lot with plenty to spare. Also, only one horse that's worth noting here for The Arc, and that's Enable.
Report morpteh mackem July 23, 2020 9:18 AM BST
rain forecast ?
Report metro john July 23, 2020 11:26 AM BST

Jul 17, 2020 -- 9:05PM, Figgis wrote:


In view of what she has produced before I was far from impressed with Enable's comeback run in the Eclipse. I've seen elsewhere Ghaiyyath has been rated a good Eclipse winner but I have him a little below average. I see Timeform said Enable's effort was as good as her win in the race last year but I have it 6lbs below, and 9lbs below her better run in the King George. Obviously it's possible she can come on for the run. I think Gosden said she was only 85% fit and if that's true then, as last year, she'll be very hard to beat. Gosden has said it's just taking a bit longer to get her fully fit now she's an older filly. Possibly. However, it's also possible that he's optimistically putting a positive spin on a filly who has simply lost a bit of speed with age. Anyway, I've never been a fan of backing 6yos in the top races and will be opposing her.


Morning Figgis, I would tend to agree, the race is almost impossible to even think about having a bet, Japan ran better in last year's Arc than I gave it credit beforehand, last year's 3yrlds looked behind their elders. Japan surprised me last time, it was travelling so much better than Enable at 8-9f, admittedly Japan had the benefit of a previous run, but seemed to have a little more left the tank than perhaps shown?
I will be watching and not betting in the King George, but if I had a gun pointing Japan would probably be the selection. I think the amount of O'Brien runners is a negative for form students and the race.

Report driver2 July 23, 2020 11:39 AM BST
Form Students!Laugh
Report Figgis July 23, 2020 10:59 PM BST
Hi metro john, go on back Japan. You know it's the value Wink
Report know all July 24, 2020 8:32 AM BST
Im a big aiden backer but taking on enable the race becomes very hard to predict, Japan who i got right at york over 1m2f and im still not sure if 1m4f is his best trip but we will see on saturday and it could come down to tactics and judging pace and 8 times out of 10 dettori would beat moore on the same horse with his superior brain skills it could be a race to savior and avoid a bet but enables price would dictate the risk
Report Figgis July 24, 2020 1:43 PM BST
I don't know for sure if Enable will retain all her ability at the age of 6. Personally, I would say it's odds against and I have to oppose her here at odds on.Japan probably needed the run first time out. The problem with the Eclipse run is he ran exactly as fast as his best form (York) last year, with no improvement from 3 to 4. Even though the wfa scale has horses improving in small increments every month, we all know this is rarely the reality. Some horses don't improve at all from 3 to 4, but of those that do I've found most will make a single leap of between 7 and 10lbs, sometimes even more. It might happen first time out or can take a run or two. Found didn't show real improvement until her seventh run as a 4yo.

I've read that maybe Japan will improve for the trip or the ground, but in my view this has no bearing. For example, when Ten Sovereigns was heavily backed for the July Cup last year it was nothing to do with the ground and everything to do with him showing improved form at home. The weight of money behind such market moves isn't because of expert form study. Tabor has a history of paying to have his card marked and now he's having it marked at the most powerful yard in Europe. If Japan improves on Saturday it will be for physical reasons. I thought Magical had a decent chance of gaining revenge on Enable now that it's possible Enable might not be the force she was. On their best runs as older mares I have Enable only 3lbs ahead, so it's not a massive deficit to overturn. Therefore I see it as a big positive for Japan that he has replaced her as the main challenge.

It has to be considered that Coolmore would rather have Japan win here than Magical for obvious financial reasons, so possibly the decision was based more on hope. However, O'Brien has said they think he has progressed since Sandown. Okay, that's not the most bullish statement but it's a bit more than the usual meaningless guff. So I don't know if Japan will finally make the necessary improvement from 3 to 4 on Saturday but at these odds I reckon it's worth the risk.
Report sageform July 24, 2020 1:57 PM BST
Highest prize money of the season and we see 4 runners, just one from GB. Fifth would have paid around £10k! I will probably be watching cricket if it is not raining.
Report FOYLESWAR July 24, 2020 6:11 PM BST
as said  on the thread earlier enable has probably peaked she may still be good enough but there was only a head between them in the eclipse and the trip should suit both much better tommorow and with age on his side japan could turn the form around  1/2 or 3/1 .i have backed japan and will have a bit more on tommorow may even lay the fav as well .
Report sageform July 24, 2020 8:33 PM BST
Down to 3 runners now. No bet race but I think Enable is capable of making all round Ascot.
Report A_T July 24, 2020 9:28 PM BST
If they let Frankie make the running then Enable won't be headed so I expect Sovereign to set a strong pace with Japan waiting to try to pick up the pieces at the end of the race.
Report brigust1 July 25, 2020 11:47 AM BST
Figgis like you I have long believed Magical would have every chance to beat Enable if the circumstances were right and she was given a winning ride. However, I now believe I was wrong. I thought she sat too far back in the 2018 Arc, it was a tactical affair at Churchill Downs which I believed played against her, in the Eclipse the following year she always allowed Enable first run, in the Yorkshire Oaks again she let Enable have first run but in the Arc she had first run and Enable ran past her and beat her easily. She may have sat too close to the leader and the ground may have been a bit softer than she likes but now I don't think she can beat Enable all things being equal. And I guess AOB thinks the same by not running her.
And I am not sure he is giving up one potential winner for another in Japan. Good luck.
Report FELTFAIR July 25, 2020 12:07 PM BST
By a complete fluke everything is green. Backed Japan ante-post but due to an alarming drift I assumed he wouldn`t run and backed Enable ante-post Both have shortened dramatically following a host of non runners. Traded both at current odds to eliminate a "Serpentine" event and looking forward to the race.

And yes I am smug.
Report Figgis July 25, 2020 2:18 PM BST
Brigust, I still have Magical's Eclipse run last year a couple of pounds below her best. Actually I was surprised she still ran so well as I was expecting more of a dip in form after her earlier runs. Up until Enable's King George win I did think Magical might be capable of beating her, as, even though I was extremely impressed with Enable as a 3yo, I didn't think her 4yo form was as good. However, she ran her best ever race as an older filly in last year's KG. I've seen fillies/mares put up equal performances over shorter trips but that was the fastest performance over 12f I've seen by an older female. So the only chance of Magical beating Enable would be if she met a below par version of her.

Like any of us, O'Brien won't know if Enable can be as good this year, but her last performance gave doubts and he'll be well aware of how difficult it will be for her to maintain that level as a 6yo. I'm sure he thought taking her on again with Magical this year was well worth a go. Japan, like all horses going from 3 to 4, will need to improve from last year to make up for losing the allowance. He was below par first time out this season, where even though he started fav due to previous exploits he was lukewarm in the market. Last time he ran exactly to his 3yo speed figure, so the improvement hadn't come, and again there wasn't a lot of confidence. I think he has the potential to improve 7lbs or more on that if/when he comes to hand.

People can go on about trips and ground but we both know how things work. The main criteria for these decisions is how they're performing at home. That's certainly the main reason why we see the money down. They still won't know if he can beat a top form Enable but I reckon Coolmore are expecting an improved showing from Japan today. Such beliefs don't always prove right, but often they do.
Report Figgis July 25, 2020 3:44 PM BST
You were right Brig. Any confidence in Japan was obviously misplaced, as that was clearly a backwards step. However, nothing can be taken away from Enable. I know some will knock her form but, in spite of my efforts to take her on, I believe she's a truly brilliant filly/mare. She put up the joint fastest Oaks performance I've personally ever seen. She also put up the fastest 12f performance I've seen by a mare/older filly, and she's maintained that level as a 6yo. A true great in the formbook and on the clock.
Report Charlton2005 July 25, 2020 3:45 PM BST
Figgis, you still haven't got a clue Grin
Report Charlton2005 July 25, 2020 3:47 PM BST
Charlton2005
24 Jul 20 21:45
Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 10,006 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
Enable often talked about as the best filly ever, even though in truth she's not even in the top 50. On the other hand if anyone suggested Japan was in the top 1000 ever of anything...


almost literally a 1 horse race, enable should be 1/10. bet accordingly and good luck.
Report Figgis July 25, 2020 3:48 PM BST
Hello, I was wondering where the king of aftertimers had gone Wink
Report Charlton2005 July 25, 2020 3:48 PM BST
A true great in the formbook

give it up Figgis...really you haven't got a clue!
Report Figgis July 25, 2020 3:49 PM BST
Enable often talked about as the best filly ever, even though in truth she's not even in the top 50

Which 50 fillies would you have ahead of her on form?
Report Charlton2005 July 25, 2020 3:50 PM BST
timed at 945pm last night Cool
Report Figgis July 25, 2020 3:55 PM BST
Well done on your 4/9 winner. Shame about Pinatubo not quite being the second coming though Wink
Report Millerracing67 July 27, 2020 4:00 PM BST
Great to see her create a bit more history with 3KG wins.
Shame about the turnout, but with this crazy yr it was always odds on there wouldn't be a 3yo in the field??
Japan has run way below his best, but to be honest it wouldn't have mattered, she's better than him.
It sounds like York is the plan again (oaks) all being well. Be Very interesting if Love lines up as well, she'll be a tough nut to crack getting WFA ??
Report Charlton2005 July 27, 2020 10:48 PM BST
ffs, does no one understand the wfa scale?
Report A_T July 28, 2020 9:17 AM BST
another one we hear a lot about is the 3lb sex allowance which we're led to believe gives 3yo filles a huge advantage in the Arc but then noone explains why we recently went 25 years without one winning.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 10:47 AM BST
Some people obviously can't interpret it. When Rous devised it even he didn't believe that all horses improved by a set number of pounds each month throughout the year. It is a sliding scale based on an AVERAGE. A one size fits all. It ought to be fairly obvious that as you deal with 3yos at the higher level a fair number of those won't just be simply better horses. They'll be better because they're maturing faster than the AVERAGE. So it also ought to be fairly obvious that such horses will be at an advantage benefiting from a WFA scale based on an AVERAGE.
Report brigust1 July 28, 2020 12:25 PM BST
Figgis I get your point about 50 mares being better than Enable but to put the boot on the other foot would Allez France, Ivanjica, Three Troikas, All Along, Urban Sea, Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Found been beaten by Waldgeist? And do you think any of them would have failed to beat Sea of Class and Cloth of Stars? And that is just the Arc winners. What about Crystal Ocean or Sovereign?

I don't know it is just guessing but on known form I think Enable is a bit short on what she has beaten but she is a tonic in an otherwise pretty barren landscape.
Report brigust1 July 28, 2020 12:35 PM BST
On a different note what about the way they are riding Magical? I have said all along they should lead with her instead of giving Enable a head start every time. I am not sure she can beat her but that has always been the way I think she may. Mind you the five Group 1's she has won have all been pretty dire.
Flag of Honour is the only one who finished 2nd in her Gr1 wins who has won a Group 1 race. That is ignoring the Australian races won by Addeybb and Magic Wand.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 1:26 PM BST
Allez France, Ivanjica, Three Troikas, All Along, Urban Sea,

All before the period I'm talking about, which as I've said previously I won't get into a pointless debate over.

Urban Sea

Sorry brig, I know she was an Arc winner but I can't take that one's best form as a serious comparison.

In my view, Zarkava never ran as fast as Enable as a 3yo, as she was good, but not that good. She kept beating her own sex until winning a weak Arc. Most of her previous races were against her own age group and she never faced a decent older filly. I had Goldikova showing improved form when dropped back to a mile after the Diane defeat, which made Zarkava's previous form against her look better than it was. We never got to see her as a 4yo for any comparison there. People can say Zarkava had more in hand, etc, and they're entitled to that opinion. However, the argument is about what was actually produced on the track.

Danedream was very impressive when winning her Arc. There is no doubt that the main opposition ran well below par and the recorded final time is more than questionable. Nevertheless, I rated it equal to anything Enable did as a 3yo. Her 4yo form wasn't quite as good, but as her season was curtailed we don't know what she may have shown later. Treve was also impressive in her first Arc but for me it still wasn't quite as good as Treve's performance. I backed Found, as you know, but she never really showed top notch form until the Irish Champion Stakes (just a shame Almanzor got injured, as I believe he was underrated), which was why I backed her in the Arc. After the Arc she was done.

As to Waldgeist, he was obviously no superstar before the Arc, but he had run some very good races. For me, clearly his best effort prior to that was the King George, so it can be said he was better than ever at the age of 5 and arguably still improving. Gosden has recently said he thinks horses are at their peak at 5. I have always thought the same. Not that all horses are going to keep improving until the age of 5 but the potential is definitely there. Also the circumstances were just right for Waldgeist to run the race of his life. The ground was soft and he was held up well off the fast early pace. I'm not sure that he would've ever been able to repeat that again but on the day it was a top class performance.

I don't believe he would've beaten Danedream but I think he could've beaten those others mentioned if facing the exact same circumstances. On the day though I had Enable 5lbs below her best, so if at her best she'd have beaten him. I have already said that as a 4yo I wasn't as impressed with Enable. The performance when beating Sea Of Class was no better than judging her 3yo efforts while deducting her allowance. I do think she got lucky as a 4yo. Lucky that it was a weak Arc and lucky that Sea Of Class had a troubled trip. To be fair though, Gosden did say even at the time that he never really had her at peak that year after her injury.

Anyway, my post wasn't about which filly should be classed as the all time best on their overall career. I just said that, in my view, Enable put up the fastest Oaks winning performance in the period since, and including, 1985. And she also put up the fastest 12f performance I've seen from an older mare during the same period.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 1:49 PM BST
*still wasn't quite as good as Danedream's performance
Report A_T July 28, 2020 2:04 PM BST
Figgis I get your point about 50 mares being better than Enable but to put the boot on the other foot would Allez France, Ivanjica, Three Troikas, All Along, Urban Sea, Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Found been beaten by Waldgeist?

On that particular day quite possibly all of them - apart from Zarkava they all experienced numerous defeats in their careers. But of course it's typical of you to want to judge a modern horse solely on it's worst performance - whereas your favourites from the past get a pass on all their losses.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 2:11 PM BST
apart from Zarkava they all experienced numerous defeats in their careers.

Exactly. I have rated a really good performance from Waldgeist and still have Enable below her best. Surely anyone who thinks Waldgeist didn't improve in the Arc can't also seriously be saying that Enable ran her race.
Report brigust1 July 28, 2020 2:49 PM BST
I asked a question AT I never made a statement. I knew Figgis would have an opinion and I haven't the time at the moment to do any research. Perhaps they were just a list of your moderate horses. Who knows?
Report metro john July 31, 2020 1:09 PM BST

Jul 28, 2020 -- 1:25PM, brigust1 wrote:


Figgis I get your point about 50 mares being better than Enable but to put the boot on the other foot would Allez France, Ivanjica, Three Troikas, All Along, Urban Sea, Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Found been beaten by Waldgeist? And do you think any of them would have failed to beat Sea of Class and Cloth of Stars? And that is just the Arc winners. What about Crystal Ocean or Sovereign? I don't know it is just guessing but on known form I think Enable is a bit short on what she has beaten but she is a tonic in an otherwise pretty barren landscape.


Apart from love, the 3yrlds have underperformed on the whole, on 2yrld ratings achieved last year the picture is one of gloom for the generation.

Report impossible123 July 31, 2020 1:31 PM BST
"Apart from Love, the 3yr olds have underperformed...."

Mis-campaigned or badly ridden in key races eg Pinatubo and Kameko respectively. Let's hope Palace Pier is above average good.
Report A_T July 31, 2020 2:37 PM BST
I asked a question AT I never made a statement. I knew Figgis would have an opinion and I haven't the time at the moment to do any research. Perhaps they were just a list of your moderate horses. Who knows?


what list?
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