missed that derby winner last year anthony van dyck, thats my name anthony. knew the was a possibility  another  horse won both races.

Well all the favoUrites drawn LOW
Come on Mohican HEIGHTS

r moore on mogul, in my book the 3rd choice of a o'brien's runners.
interesting that heffernan and beggy are coming over for rides and going onto france on sunday.
will both have to isolate for 14 days when back in ireland, or will they? does aiden know something we don't.

had a fair bit of rain at epsom today by all accounts and a fair bit for saturday,

going good, good to soft in places, 11mm of rain today

Haven`t been able to post for a few days but this years Derby has become a pain.

Firstly I was " balls deep" on Military March with English King and Kameko as small winners. Next Military March gets injured, English King gets box 1 and the ground softens which probably won`t help Kameko`s chances of getting the trip.

I am not a great fan of collateral form but Arthurs Kingdom performance in the Irish Derby did little to elevate the form of Pyledriver`s race at Ascot, the time for Russian Emperor`s race at Ascot wasn`t brilliant and similarly Vatican City in the Irish Guineas. So overall I have concluded that Ballydoyle`s participants are too difficult to differentiate and will not be adding any of them to my current outlays. Knowing the brilliance of Aiden O`Brien I could regret leaving him out but so be it.

Bottom line I am left with English King and Kameko to rescue my financial position but this year all the vibes are negative. Here`s hoping.

At least I am not alone.

A fair number of the "provisional" pundits are nailing their mast to Russian Emperor at this late hour. Another bookies horse?

Intriguing race.

The Derby being run in July?..... how many will we see of those in our lifetime?

Same rules apply,looking for that combination of speed and stamina,the ability to handle both the occasion and the unique demands of this course.

Thats just the jockeys covered.How many will be nervous on the way down,and through the race.How much can those nerves be transferred through the reigns,how much can that affect performance?

Not too difficult to make a case for a few,as the betting suggests.

Vatican City ......... The pin has landed on this one.

If there is a dark horse in here,he,s my idea of that horse.Nothing special as a 2 yr old,it was that Irish Guineas run that caught the eye.Boxed in at the business end,he eventually found a little daylight at the furlong pole,doing his best work as the race was over.

He did not pick up immmediately,I do wonder just how forward he was,he still looked way too keen in the early stages,despite travelling just behind the pace.That could be the key to him later today,can he settle in the early stages,just how much has that last run brought him on.Pedigree wise,his sire will do for me,ground should be no excuse for any of them,if it remains easy side of good.

Just how many of these horses will relish the test,with so little experience in the locker?

Very few would be my guess,thats what sets the top outfits apart from the rest,getting the right horses there is just one part of the puzzle,everything needs to be in place on the day,to deliver.


GL

I backed Vatican City after its unlucky Newmarket run and subsequent very smooth Dundalk win . O'brien was saying on June 1st that he ' might ' be ready to run in the Irish 2000 guineas and before the race that he was ' just' ready . He also stated that the horse should stay ' a little bit further than a mile ' , apparently based on the speed horses on his dam's side . His owners have to run him , the breeding pot of gold is so big , so its fingers crossed . I have only had 4 derby winners since Morston in 1973 , and heres hoping two of them have been ridden by P Beggy !!

Couple of plays for me: little bit ew English King 4/1 (worried about that draw??) laid Kameko 4.7, fan of the horse, just don't think he wants 12f??
Gd luck with your bets lads.

In many years we get a horse or two showing big improvement to make the frame but usually the winner is one who has already shown it has sufficient speed. This year, in my opinion, there are only three in the right ballpark, so I will concentrate on those. They occupy three of the first four places in the market. I have seen in a few places Russian Emperor has been put up as one of the fastest horses in the race. I can see how people have arrived at that conclusion, but, for me, they're wrong and I have him a good 10lbs+ behind the main three.

I still believe this year's Guineas was the poorest of the last ten years, and in most years Kameko would've done no better than fighting for a place. However, a placed Guineas effort is often good enough to win a Derby and if Kameko can replicate that effort over 12f that form would be good enough to win an average Derby. When I watched him last year I thought he would stay. My negative for him is I don't have him improving significantly from 2 to 3 and I wouldn't say he had an easy race in the Guineas. He's not one I want to follow. I have Mogul only 4lbs behind him on last year's best form and if he can return to that after the below par Ascot run I can see him placed. He'll need to improve again, however, to win a typical Derby.

That leaves English King. I have the Lingfield win only 2lbs behind Kameko, and importantly he actually achieved it over the trip. In general I don't make a habit of upgrading horses because they appear to win easily, as I think it's usually overestimated that horses could've won by further, but I'd be surprised if EK couldn't improve a couple of pounds on that, which would put him bang on my mark for a decent Derby winner. I won't pretend this year's Lingfield Derby Trial is the most confident I've ever been about a piece of time analysis. This year there was only one other turf race for a comparison, far from ideal, but I'm happy to bet on my conclusions until proven wrong. I have no interest in the draw in a race of this nature. I think EK is a great bet at the price and I'm backing him.

I'm mainly with EK as he has proven his stamina and he has a decent turn of foot. If Kamenko stays he will go close but he is a miler looking to stay rather than a 12f horse with the speed to win or go place in the 2000Gns. Of AOB horses, Mogul doesn't have the profile for me but he might improve enough to place. I can see VC and RE both running well and I have savers on those two plus HC who put up a good performance at Ascot albeit in a h//cap.English King would be a reasonable result at the price.

Another AOB screw up. English King was finishing well but I bet the jockey's behind thought AOB front runners would come back especially after what happened in the Oaks.

I wonder if Tom Marquand would have sat as far back as Frankie?

The time comparison with the rest of the card reads okay. Nothing exceptional but certainly up to standard for the race. I agree it wasn't the best ride from Dettori and EK looked edgy beforehand, but even though he finished quite well I was still disappointed that he didn't show more pace when needed earlier and, for me, it was too big a margin of defeat to just blame the ride. It might come back to bite me but I'm taking the view he just wasn't good enough, no excuses from me, I overrated him at Lingfield, which I always knew was a possibility. In a regular year there probably would've been another opportunity to assess him.

As to the winner, it was difficult to know what to make of the maiden win. It was a decent time in comparison to the Irish Derby. It still left him with a fair bit to find with the best of these but he couldn't have won any easier and was open to more improvement. In a normal year we probably would've got another look at him, but I really don't think this was a fluke.

that Lingfield Derby Trial,not one horse has come out
and won.

^Mogul should improve like Japan did.

Well what a weird race scratched me head and the time and still am!!
Actually think the winner isnt getting the credit he deserves and think this was no fluke
Watching the race like many others assumed hed gone too fast an was going to fall in a heap 2 out and finish nearer last than 1st.
If you look @ the sectionals im convinced he went TOO FAST compared with the Oaks he would have been 6 lengths clear of the 2 pacemakers that where well clear of the field but finished out with the washing.
Ironically the 1st 4 home where the 1st 4 after a furlong and a half

The improvement Serpentine has shown in each race is quite staggering  wathcing his 1st 2 runs the men in white coats would have taken you away even if you would have suggested he would RUN in the Derby.
Wheres he go next ? Juddmonte /Irish Champion ideal tracks for a bold front runner.

Serpentine,you mean,not Soveriegn?