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St Leger (September 12th)

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Replies: 109
By:
sageform
When: 25 Aug 20 10:51
I certainly think that Santiago is too short at the moment. Which countries will be back in lockdown by Sept 12? If France is then could Love run in the Leger? If Ireland is might the O'Brien horses all miss the race? Pyledriver is a value bet if you know that Santiago is your main danger but what about Serpentine, Tiger Moth and Delphi? Coolmore might well fancy turning another of their 3yos into a Classic winner.
By:
penzance
When: 25 Aug 20 12:46
backed Khalifah Sat(ave 148s),might not
run but Balding has always thought he
may turn out to be a Leger horse.Derby 2nd,
was a bit disapointing @ Goodwood but was only
a HD behind English King who he was in front
of @ Epsom.That's around the 12s mark on here.
If he does turn up won't be 147/1.Also like
Hukum,if he runs.
   GL ALL
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Aug 20 15:53
Love will not run here as Coolmore will never run their top filly against their Epsom/Irish Derby winner; Arc as no principal colt contender

English King is unlikely either (I believe) given the outstanding performance of Pyledriver in the Voltigeur.

Serpentine - Grand Prix de Paris (13th Sept) bound; French jockey if necessary (if Covid intervenes); 1m 6f possibly too far too.
Tiger Moth - possibly; more likely Irish St Leger if market is anything to go by; trip unknown.
Mogul - annihilated by Pyledriver; trip likely to be too far; no hope of reversing form with Pyledriver, assuming both stay just as well.
Delphi - needs to improve loads; just held on last time; rated only 109.

Pyledriver or Santiago. The former gave weight and a drubbing to Berkshire Rocco (2nd to Santiago). If on song only the trip can beat him. If trained by Gosden or Stoute he'd be 7/4 fav, I firmly believe.
By:
sageform
When: 26 Aug 20 11:58
Agree with all that but I was just thinking the top 2 in the market owe their prices to plans for others and they might change. It is entirely possible that Ireland and France could stop horses going either way.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Aug 20 13:19
I do not think your scenario will materialise as it did not stop Coolmore sending their charges for the 1st two Classics; worst case scenario a quarantine which will necessitate the employment of local jockeys.

I think the top two in the market are reflected by what they've achieved so far eg Santiago (Irish Derby/Queen's Vase); Pyledriver (Edward VII Stakes/Voltigeur). The others need to improve to feature prominently in the race.
By:
driver2
When: 27 Aug 20 05:57
I just watched the Irish Derby again and if they ever meet again, I would back Tiger Moth to beat Santiago. Tiger Moth was very green in the closing stages and unlike the fav, didn't have the rail to help him and he wandered about a little in the middle of the course. I'm sure that he has a lot of improvement in him. Whether or not he runs in the Leger is another matter, I would have liked to have seen him have another run after the Derby. Anyway, his next run will be very interesting imo.
By:
elisjohn
When: 27 Aug 20 08:35
i thought that pyledriver said something silly after the york win, " that he might have too much speed for the leger the way he won the york race, but he didnt look like stopping there did he, ",    my Confusedre that comment was , oh so sharp , commanche run , nijinsky these horses were 8 furlong. 10 furlong winners , i wouldnt think that winning over 12 furlongs should worry you too much william about him having too much speed
By:
elisjohn
When: 27 Aug 20 08:35
should say, pyledriver trainerGrin
By:
elisjohn
When: 27 Aug 20 08:39
2 superb bets for the next few weeks , imo the around 9/2 pyledriver e/w and the same around 4s  on enable ew , a cracking ew singles and double ,    actually a magnificent e/w double
By:
elisjohn
When: 27 Aug 20 08:41
pyledriver will be around 5/2 on the day and very much certain there will be less than 8 runners and enable i see her probably 9/4 fav nearer the day.
By:
driver2
When: 27 Aug 20 09:30
I'd fancy the place double, but both to win will be difficult if the main protagonists turn up. A 6 year old mare has never won the Arc and it would truly be an amazing achievement if she manages it. Pretty good odds though!
By:
kevinglass
When: 27 Aug 20 13:07
If its soft, I think Passion has a good outside chance. She had an entry in the Irish St Leger ages ago, so I think they knew she wanted a good test.

Clearly in the Oaks they knew she stayed, but went way too fast. In the Irish Oaks, she got done for toe, same at Cork. At Cork she was supported in the betting.

At Naas, first time at 1m6f, again well supported, soft ground, and she stayed really well, won from the front.

Clearly she may not run, might go for the Park Hill also, instead of the Leger. But if it's softish, I think she has a squeak, specially in a well run race.
By:
armpits
When: 27 Aug 20 14:00
I backed Mohican Heights (Bet 365: 25/1 ew) for the Leger after its run in the King Edward when it ran on late on for 3rd.  I have what can only be described as an idiot's knowledge of breeding but I'm assuming he should stay.  Atzeni on board at Doncaster would be a plus for me.  Like many others, Derby run can possibly be excused and RP states that he stumbled at the start and maybe, maybe he didn't like the track as well as ATR said he 'struggled (in the) straight', who knows?  Not heard anything about him since though?  Still entered but....anyone know anything please?  Cheers in advance.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Aug 20 18:07
Passion could be a thorn to all but will Coolmore run one of their fillies against their Irish Derby winner who's a shortie fav for the race? I doubt that very much; the interest for Tiger Moth seems to have vanished altogether.

Without a doubt Pyledriver has the best form and ought to be fav; Santiago will definitely stay; Hukum (I assume he's running) will need to improve on a line with Subjectivist to bother Pyledriver. Also, his winning time at Ascot is less favourable to Pyledriver on better going  and carrying less weight too.

I think Pyledriver will win if he stays with Santiago the most likely beneficiary if he does not. I hope so.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 27 Aug 20 23:07

Aug 27, 2020 -- 2:00PM, armpits wrote:


I backed Mohican Heights (Bet 365: 25/1 ew) for the Leger after its run in the King Edward when it ran on late on for 3rd.

By:
ReaseHeath
When: 27 Aug 20 23:15

Aug 27, 2020 -- 2:00PM, armpits wrote:


I backed Mohican Heights (Bet 365: 25/1 ew) for the Leger after its run in the King Edward when it ran on late on for 3rd.

By:
ReaseHeath
When: 27 Aug 20 23:16
Quote function not working Cry

Mohican Heights was entered for the March Stakes at Goodwood on Saturday at the six day stage. Obviously he has n't been declared. An optimistic take might be that his trainer does n't want him to have a hard race on relatively testing ground with the Leger only two weeks away but that's supposition on my part.

Not sure it helps much except that you know he's still alive and kicking...
By:
armpits
When: 28 Aug 20 19:43
Cheers ReaseHeath, much appreciated.  I'll go along with your optimistic take on things.  Where's there's life etc.... :)
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Aug 20 19:56
Moore is already in quarantine for the Irish Champions Weekend thus unlikely to be riding Santiago at Doncaster.
By:
Paterson92
When: 31 Aug 20 21:28
Was just reading that there impossible, giving up the final classic of the season to ride in Ireland.

As a Santiago backer, that can only be a negative. May well be down to prize money, but I’m surprised either way.

Frankie to ride Santiago? I can see Pyledriver going off favourite at this rate.
By:
driver2
When: 01 Sep 20 04:06
I wouldn't take the fact that RM is heading for Ireland for champions weekend as a negative. AOB has a wealth of talent entered for the Group races at Leopardstown and the Curragh, including next year's 2000gns and Derby fav, Battleground. All of that vs the Leger is a no brainer!
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Sep 20 18:25
This season only Moore and Heffernan have ridden Santiago. And, it's likely Pyledriver could usurp Santiago as fav as Heffernan is more likely to stay in Ireland too given the strength of AOB's charges for Champions Weekend.
By:
ashleigh
When: 01 Sep 20 18:53
would imagine frankie would get the call to ride santiago.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Sep 20 20:57
I do not think Gosden has any principal runner unless one cannot dismiss the poor run of Worthily at Epsom. However, Dettori could ride English King (probably Grand Prix de Paris) if he runs given his chummy relationship with its owner. If so, Buick or Doyle would benefit from Moore's preference for Ireland.

Who's backing Hukum? He's very short on what he's done. The long range weather forecast is friendly too.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 02 Sep 20 00:46
One of Buick or Doyle is going to ride Pinatubo at Longchamp on Sunday so under the current quarantine rules whichever one does won't be available to ride in the Leger - on the other hand Buick might yet end up in Ireland to ride Ghaiyyath in the Champion Stakes and Master Of The Seas in the National Stakes if the quarantine rules for Irish Champions weekend change in terms of elite sport dispensation.

As a point of interest Hukum is rated only 1lb shy of Santiago on the BHA scale and achieved the same RPR in winning the Geoffrey Freer as Santiago did in winning the Irish Derby. I'm not one to take the ratings as gospel but I do think there will be (understandable) question marks about Hukum due to his unconventional route to the race - he would almost certainly have run in the Derby had he not been struck into when winning at Royal Ascot although given the way the Derby panned out it's debatable whether we would have learned much more about him there.

Anyway, I am likely to back him on the day when I think he may well be a bigger price than he is now - I doubt Coolmore think Santiago is a good thing so I think it's likely they'll be mobhanded on the day - I know there are a lot of other good races that weekend but equally they have plenty of 3yo colts with potentially the right profile.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Sep 20 14:14
santiago on the drift out to 4/1 on here ,pyledriver fav  hukum 2nd fav  atm.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 02 Sep 20 15:56
Ominous.
By:
Paterson92
When: 02 Sep 20 16:00
My first impression of the drift was that it was a reaction to Moore going to Ireland instead, however I think there’s more to it ... I fear the worst is about to happen!
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Sep 20 17:58
Why is Hukum so short? At present prices I'd have Santiago over him any time of the day, all things being equal of course. Pyledriver is the rightful fav and no doubt much shorter if stamina is proven.

I think the drift of Santiago is mainly Moore induced otherwise I'd expect to see a bit of interest for Tiger Moth; Dawn Patrol is very unlikely to be good enough; Serpentine is also friendless similarly, Passion.

I'm after a bit for Santiago at 6 or more.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Sep 20 20:49
All is well with Santiago; Tiger Moth will be running in Ireland next as AOB do not reckon he'd stay 1m 6f; Dawn Patrol is Leger bound; Serpentine Grand Prix de Paris then probably the Arc, all being well.

AOB will not be sending any of his jocks this way for the Doncaster Meeting; the jockeys lined up could be Dettori, Buick, Doyle, Murphy and Kirby.
By:
Paterson92
When: 02 Sep 20 21:04
While O’Brien and Dettori will be in opposition in the Arc, they are set to team up at the Doncaster St Leger meeting next week, with the Ballydoyle trainer set to call on British-based jockeys there.

Irish Derby hero Santiago is one of the intended O’Brien runners for the Pertemps-sponsored Leger on Town Moor.

O’Brien said: “We have spoken to Frankie, and he’s going to be there for the Leger – which is great for us – so hopefully he will ride some of ours.

“We haven’t really discussed it, but I’d imagine that (using British-based riders) is what will happen because we’ll probably have a lot of runners here (for Longines Irish Champions Weekend) and we’ll need the lads here. The problem is if the lads go there they can’t do anything for the next two weeks after it.

“I’d imagine we’ll probably need them at home for that weekend, and we have Frankie and William (Buick), James (Doyle), Adam (Kirby) and Oisin (Murphy) – they’ve all ridden for us, and we’re delighted they’ve agreed to do that whenever we have needed them. I think we’ll be OK that way.”

Of Santiago, last seen finishing third to Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup, he said: “Everything has gone well since Goodwood. It didn’t really work as we’d have liked – but it didn’t do him any harm, and he seems to be in good form.

“He’ll have a busy week this week, and that will tell us a lot.”
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 02 Sep 20 23:04
His jockey options are going to be reduced, trust me - Murphy is suspended so he definitely ain't gonna be riding and whatever happens with the quarantine rules one of either Buick or Doyle won't be riding at Doncaster, possibly both.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Sep 20 16:17
Dettori is the most likely pilot on Santiago unless a last minute swap courtesy of his friendship with the owner of English King and (Stradivarius). Whatever...it's only a fairly innocuous horse race after all.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Sep 20 12:03
Still connections of English King have not made a decision to run or not run. The ground is presently soft (he'd prefer good or better); it's good to soft at Longchamp. Next week then.
By:
Paterson92
When: 05 Sep 20 22:26
Significant amount of support the last few days for Galileo Chrome. I would have thought the Irish Leger would be his favoured destination on the Sunday, but the exchanges speaking volumes ...
By:
driver2
When: 06 Sep 20 04:27
Galileo Chrome has gone under the radar somewhat, it's not even among the Racing Post possible entries. On form, if it runs it would have a great chance and the 14/1 on BF is very tempting. Good spot Paterson.
By:
driver2
When: 06 Sep 20 04:41
Just had a tenner EW on the Sportsbook at 16 (odds boosted 1 pt). Not very often you get value there!
By:
driver2
When: 06 Sep 20 11:07
Wow Paterson, I think you found a live one there, still being backed, only Bet365 offering double figures now, I had another tenner at 15 on the sportsbook which is long gone.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 06 Sep 20 12:36
G Crome tipped up by
Tom in the weekender
Laugh
By:
driver2
When: 06 Sep 20 12:56
So he did, surprising that it took so long to shorten up! Interesting to see if it runs now.
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