Horse Antepost
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HKIR Dec 2019
HKIR Dec 2019
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Replies: 157
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Probably the best trip for him HK.
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Potentially good trial too....there’s another go in Nov/Dec too though even if he doesn’t this time.
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Giving it another go with Riko HK... interesting!
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Indeed Mr D and I’ll be there this year.
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Great stuff HK... hopefully Riko does you proud. Should get a nice EW price!
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he’s a decent bet vs La Bague Au Roi based on the form of The Peterborough as that’s ones around 10-1. Last year he got a bit buzzed pre race so if he handles it better he could run a lot closer, he did finish well after losing his place a bit.
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Very true HK, he's a lot better off at the weights with her in this race and price difference is massive. If Riko can run close to that Peterborough Chase form he's got to have good chance of going close. I've had my doubts about Cheltenham for him but if Noonan can get him nearer the pace this time, his jumping will put him bang in the race IMO.
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The other concern is the short period between races, only 13 days could be a little tight.
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Yep, that is a concern.
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A race too soon, the plus is he ran on again and jumped well. Aintree is off anyway so he would have missed that run, there might be one more run this season but he's been dropped 5lb for that. Had a cracking day too, looked after nicely. Back to HK soon for the Derby though my AP bet is now not running so I'm hoping that Golden Sixty can win all 3, not convinced he'll stay though.
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It was another one of those Cheltenham Festival races where past form at the course came to the fore. The first four all had previous wins at Cheltenham. The hustle and bustle of the race doesn't seem to suit Riko but he ran OK again and at least he's got some relif from the handicapper. Good to hear you had a cracking race day with Riko last week, it was once again a brilliant week of racing, shame we are not going to get the Grand National meeting or any big meetings in this country for a while.
At least we've still got some iinternational horse racing to watch and bet on!! The HK Derby looks to be going Golden Sixty's way, I thought 9f would be a struggle but he won the Classic Cup very cosy and I really don't think the extra furlong will be a problem having watched that race a few times. Just in case he doesn't see out the trip I will be sticking with Butterfield EW, the 20-1 available at the moment is fair value but I'm hoping to get a bigger price on the day. He will have no problem with the trip and I think there will be some big improvement from him going up to 10f! Safe journey back to Hong Kong HK, it sounds like you will have 2 weeks of home quarantine to look foward to... strange times!  |
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Yup, 2 weeks of home quarantine with an electronic tag so no sneaking out anywhere.....but I can see why it's being done, we still only have 4 deaths and 170 cases since January so the government must have done something right, although Asians have bitter experience in these things so probably did take it a little more seriously than other countries and regions.
I am going to do Champion's Way in the derby now, I think I am in the minority of 1 believing that Golden Sixty won't get the extra 200m, he was blowing hard after the 1800m race. Good luck and stay safe! |
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Really tough times HK but you obviously know they do it for the best reasons in Hong Kong!
The good thing is we still have something to look foward to at the weekend, really interesting race... hopefully you are right about Golden Sixty HK! |
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At least I’ll have a lot more spare time to study the form as I can’t get out and do any exercise. I am a runner, mainly to keep me out of harms way and the bad things you can find in Asia
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This should also keep you interested....I’m hoping they have lifted the ban on spectators by the time this is on
https://racingnews.hkjc.com/english/2020/03/18/nominations-for-fwd-champions-day-at-sha-tin/?b_cid=EWRHRFE__ |
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Sounds like that two week home quarantine is going to do your head in HK... but that might change if you find plenty of winners!?
Great to see Hong Kong keeping the international horse racing show on the road along with Japan... Dubai next week as well. |
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I’ve been working from home since the end of Jan anyway so it’s not a massive difference. Just this 2 weeks I can’t leave the house!
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Not agreat draw for Butterfield in barrier 12 but there doesn't seem to be much pace in the race, so he might be able to get an OK position if he breaks well. He's still got to make massive improvement on the ratings, the step up in trip might help but the draw could hinder that chance now. The 35-1 (price boosted) on offer tempted me EW and I will have another bet tomorrow, if his price goes bigger.
Champion's Way's current price at 16-1 in Hong Kong is interesting HK, not sure that will hold up though with the Magic Man onboard. Extra furlong is the slight worry for me with him... a bit like Golden Sixty but if they do go slow and sprint, stamina might not matter that much. The other one I like who is closely matched with Butterfield is Columbus County, he's got a nice draw in 3 but he could do with a strong pace and it don't look like he will get it!? Plus, like Butterfield, he's got to improve massively on the ratings. |
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According to the stats only the top 4 can win today based on their current rating, I’m on Champions Way but not for much as I hope GS can win.
My bets today, this will be an indication of whether too much time studying is counterproductive! R2 - 5 each way, he’s only around 12-1 so isn’t the price I was hoping for, step up in trip should suit. Was hoping for around 20–1 R6 - 5 win, think he won with a lot in hand last race (beat the 11 who is now 5lb better off but I do t think he can reverse that form) R7 - 11 win, my best bet. Looked a very good horse winning in C4 last run, up 11lbs for that but looks like getting an easy lead from gate 2 and is carrying a low weight, has the fav to beat but I think he’s the making of a very good horse. Good luck with your Derby bets. |
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I'm sticking with Butterfield in the Derby, he's up against it on ratings and as you've mentioned HK... he's also up against it stats wise. Happy with the price though and hopefully he might nab a place.
I going with Assimilate in the lucky last EW. His price is shortening up in the UK but bigger in Hong Kong at the moment. Going to wait and see if I can get a better price!? I also like Star Shine but the price difference between him and Assimilate is making my mind up. Wasn't looking to back anything else but noticed Super Fast is running in R6. Backed him in his last race when he looked like running much better than his finishing position. Stepping up to 1m 2f for the first time in Hong Kong might see him run much better. He won his maiden over that distance back in Ireland. Thought he would be a bigger price than he is at the moment. I can see why you are going with Winning Delight HK, especially with Purton onboard. He's just a bit short for me. All the best with your bets today. |
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Really impressive win by Golden Sixty in a really messy race. Butterfield not good enough on the day as ratings suggested.
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Didn't go quick enough but Assimilate ran on really well for the place money.
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That was a very impressive display on a poor day for me, too much time doesn’t help! I’m glad he won, and he did do it in some style with a fairly decent tone. I’m not sure whether 1600m is his best distance though, hopefully we’ll see at the end of April how good he stacks up.
We’ve now got the return of Aethero to look forward to on the 5th April before he goes to the G1 at the end of April. |
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Interesting sprint on Sunday, HKP vs Aethero, looks like a tactical battle between ZP and JM. At the prices on offer I’d take HKP at 3-1 especially as this is Aethero’s first run since December and he’s only getting 4lb.
The mile will go to Waikuku i think. |
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Getting much rain at the weekend HK?
Very trappy races Sunday. |
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3 winners Sunday including the Japan race and ended up losing money
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Wednesday night - best bet is R2 JM’s ride and each way R4 Gunnar
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Good morning HK,
Glad to see HK racing is keeping us going, though I would like your view on why JM & ZP runners always seem to be much shorter than would otherwise be expected. Are these two chaps so much better than the other pilots out there ? I would appreciate your views. |
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Good Day WHJ,
Simplistically they probably are the better pilots but they do get the better horses to ride and at the moment with no world travel they have a duopoly. They are responsible for 40% of all winners and they each get placed 50% of their rides so you can see why they are so short. It does work in your favour though as if you fancy one in a race and neither of them are riding then the price is generally overs. 4 picks today and having a go at the C5 races which I never do so must be going mad, especially as my best bet is the race 3 animal R2 - Roman Odyssey ew R3 - Amazing Agility R8 - Enzemble R11 - Ballistic King |
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I'll qualify that 40% - they both have a 20% win strike rate on their rides, got a bit carried away with simple maths
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A couple of EW stabs in the last two races.
There looks to be a good pace in R10 and the one which I did liked was Gift Of A Lifeline but he hasn't been missed by the HK punters and his price is shorter than expected. The 25-1 on offer last night for Picken was too big IMO so backed him. Gutsy win last time and nearly always runs his race, pace of the race and good draw should see him give it another good go... I hope. I was going to stick with Dragon General in the lucky last but he's never backed up that well after a win and Lobo's Legend is better off at the weights with him. Concern with LL, hes's got another crap draw but dropping back in trip and the current EW price made my mind up. Star Shine was once again on my short list but I thought he would be a bigger price than he is at the moment! R10: Picken 25-1 EW (4 places) R11: Lobo's Legend 30-1 (4 places) |
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I should listen to the advice I give others about C5.....anyway, the last 2 won nicely.
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Yep, nice couple of winners for you HK. Surprised it took them so long to step Ballistic King up in trip the way he won!?
The less said about my two picks the better but the punk on Picken looked like he'd never ridden a race horse before... dearie me! We live and learn.  |
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Thank you for your reply HK.
For what it is worth I'd have ZP over JM in a match, but hey ho ? My wife and I really enjoyed ST last year and your restaurant advice, and if the world get's back to normal we will be venturing your way later this year with any luck. Again for what it is worth, I'd have ST over HV every time if you could only do one. Regards. |
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You’re most welcome WHJ.
I’d take Purton on longer distance and 1000m but JM 1200m - 1600m but that could just be a false perception thing on my part. If you’re going to come again then it should be the week of international races with the Wednesday before at HV for the international jockey challenge with the main event on the Sunday. Stay safe! |
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3 group 1s this weekend, sadly no international interest and no trip to the track!! Hopefully will be able to watch on the TV at a watering hole (with food of course as is the current rule in HK)
No Golden Sixty but there is the chance to check the 4yo form with More Than This going in the mile, will Waikuku return from his substandard run last race. Questions in the sprint too. |
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Race 3 for me tonight, cracking race over 2200m and will be looking for some each way Stimulation
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Good racing tomorrow - has a quick look, nothing solid in the G1 races as too many questions from the last runs.,,
R1 - Sprint Forward/Yichun Blitz R2 - Bright Vision R3 - Judys Star/Stock Legend R4 - Cheerful Leader - win R5 - HKP R6 - Beauty Smile/ Toycoon - fav probably too good R7 - Waikuku R8 - Time Warp to get easy lead Purton probably won’t let him get too far ahead this time R9 - Gold Chest - win R10 - Hezthewonforus - each way R4 probably my best bet. |