Horse Antepost
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HKIR Dec 2019
HKIR Dec 2019
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Almond Eye out of HK Cup, not in the right condition and taken out of quarantine! I've backed Win Bright at 20-1 EW with BVictor after this news. Once again some bookies slow to remove horses from the betting.
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Yes, sadly out.....one of my mates had multiple accas into her so he's sick! I had WB in for 3rd pick in my tierce for the race with AE and MW....it's a lottery now, but I couldn't have counterfeit money on Furore so that's the sign for him to win half the straight.
I'm happy with BTC being my main bet for the meeting, with EW on son of Lord K in that race. As it usually takes me too long to drop a horse and not accept a younger one will and possibly is better I'm likely to stick with BG in the mile but I do think that the race might be set up for Indy Champ and can't see the winner being anything outside the top 3 in the betting. The Cup is now between MW and Win Bright for me, and as WB has CD form you'd have to side with him, he's got the 2 brothers likely to set it up again and it's not a bad form race with those in-behind winning races around the world. Sprint - BTC as I can't see them letting Aethero have that much of a head start over them, JM thinks Aethero is the next AF so if he is it could be something to watch but I can't back him at the price he is. Vase - AVD for me, Exultant will be too short if ZP has early winners. I've never been a fan of Exultant, it's irrational as he's obviously a decent animal but i think he beats inferior horses in HK and he's got a proper horse to race him this time along with Lucky Lilac I'm sure i'll change all that come next Sunday and I'm 3 hours into the free flow. Weather isn't changing apart from winter arriving with a max of around 19C, no rain forecast so it will be good or GF |
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The perils of ante post betting... that's the chance we take when trying to get get the best price!
Pretty happy with my bets at the moment. Backing Win Bright early yesterday was a no brainer at 20-1 EW, he was my next best after Almond Eye. As you've mentioned HK, the form from the QEII Cup and his two victories in Japan before that race have been franked (multiple G1 winners, including Lucky Lilac). He's better going right handed and this race has been his main target after winning at Sha Tin earlier this year. I cannot have any of this years HK 4yr old classice runners. Waikuku and Ka Ying Star are way too short IMO for the Mile, I cannot believe these pair have improved that much. That Jocky Club Mile race is iffy, Simply Brilliant and Citron Spirit were not that far behind... and these pair are very exposed in HK graded races. It looks like all the international raiders have arrived now, hopefully no more withdrawls. 1 week to go.  |
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Good afternoon HKAccie,
My wife and I made it to Sha Tin yesterday and took your advice and went to the Haymarket restaurant and what a pleasant afternoon we had. If I had to add to your great call, you simply must add the drinks package at $180 per man, plus take a seat not at a table but at the bar. I was served a second beer after my first mouthful and my wife’s wine glass was 100% topped up all day, brilliant service. The food was very good, especially the starters, loads of nice seafood to tuck into. I have to say I found the race card impossible to understand, nothing new there, so I was glad when SdS booted home a 8/1 chance half way through the meeting, HV has a younger more boozy croud whilst ST seems to be a real racing croud. Thank you for your heads up, it was most appreciated. |
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Mr Hat - indeed the free flow at $180 is very good value.
The Haymarket is where I’ll be this Sunday with a few friends, we’ve been in there the past 4/5 intl meetings. It’s $575 buffet plus the $180 drinks. I’ve not seen anything rival the value you get at hk racing. The best race card is on the hkjc website. Glad you enjoyed it and good that you had a winner! |
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Normcore and Lucky Lilac put in some slick track work this morning. The rest of the Japanese raiders also looked good but those two impressed me the most.
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BTC in 3 Danon S in 8 - nice draw.
Normcore not the ideal draw in 9, Indy Champ 3 Cup draw isn’t that relevant as only 8 runners |
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Pleased with the Sprint draw for BTC... Damon Smash OK. Hopefully they will make it hard for Aethero to get a good position from barrier 10... otherwise he will more than likely win!
I don't think the draw will be that big a problem in the other races. A wide draw in the Mile hasn't been that much of a hindrance in past races. Normcore likes to come from off the pace, she just needs to get out quick and get a good position midfield. Indy Champ has the ideal barrier... he should be able to track Beauty Gen from there. As you mentioned HK, small field in the Cup, shouldn't be any excuses. |
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What’s your view on Glory Vase? His form is quite decent and he’s going to be a big price on Sunday, can’t back them all but have to run the rule over all.
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KR running Sunday MrD - might be a little too hot for him first up but he has to start off somewhere!
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His comeback run at Kyoto in the Daishoten was a bit disappointing and none of the runners from that race have covered themselves in glory since... which worries me. He did have long layoff after his hard fought second to Fierement in the Tenno Sho Spring, so you could forgive him for that lackluster display. He should be fit and ready to go now... the trip/jockey are plus points and he does offer some good EW value.
I did see that Graham Cunningham put him up on the HK Direct preview show, not sure whether that's a plus... not a fan!!!  Just Lucky Lilac for me, really hope her stamina holds out... she has the speed. I was surprised with that entry HK but fair play, aim high.  |
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Lucky Lilac was lame Tuesday and hasn’t improved apparently
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https://racingnews.hkjc.com/english/2019/12/06/called-to-the-bar-lucky-lilac-the-longines-hong-kong-vase-group-1-8-december-2019-sha-tin-racemeeting/
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I find this news very odd HK, she did her fast work Wednesday and put in a pretty slick 21.5 400m run. How can she be lame Tuesday and put in some good fast work the next day... weird?! No one mentioned anything all week.
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Lucky Lilac
Wednesday Track Notes Warmed up in the trotting track before working on the turf, clocking 1m 18.5s (31.5, 25.5, 21.5) for the final 1200m. Assistant trainer Eishu Maruuchi said: “We’ve been making slight adjustments to her training both here and in Japan to make sure we can get the best out of her here. She seems to be responding very well. The track has a nice bounce to it and it seems really easy to run on.” Thursday Track Notes Went out onto the all-weather course to stretch her legs and slowly cantered for one lap. Assistant trainer Eishu Maruuchi said “She was the only Japanese horse to go out on the all-weather today, so she had a little trouble relaxing but once we got going we had no problems.” Friday Track Notes Cantered a lap and a half around the all-weather course; completing her final 400m in 32.1s and finished the morning with paddock and gate schooling. Assistant trainer Eishu Maruuchi said “She feels really good today after her breeze yesterday.” Connections seem very happy with her condition and track work since Tuesdays examination by the Dr Prabhu! |
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Both Lucky Lilac and Called To The Bar passed fit by the Specsavers vet and are suitable to race tomorrow!! What a surprise.
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Haha - it was an odd one!
Can’t wait now - hopefully JM can get Triple Triple home in R1 to set the day up! KR’s race has cut up nicely, could run into some nice prize money, it’ll be 10pm Sunday night that they jump off so I’ll be very worse for wear by then! Final selections tonight, then no changing minds! It’s looking like Indy Champ could be my banker bet as loathed as I am to desert the champ. |
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Yep, super excited. It will be interesting to see how the prices fluctuate tomorrow... especially in the HK Sprint?!
Looks a tough one for Riko tomorrow but it will be great to see him back in action. They all have to jump those fences... stranger things have happened. |
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My HKIR ante post bets over the last few weeks...
HK Vase Loves Only You: 16-1 EW NR  Lucky Lilac: 13-1 EW HK Sprint Beat The Clock: 17-2 EW Danon Smash: 18-1 EW HK Mile Normcore: 15-1 EW HK Cup Win Bright: 20-1 EW Sticking with these bets unless some wacky prices pop up tomorrow... which normally always happens at this meeting! |
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Triple Triple R1
I Do/Cinquante Cinq R2 High Rise Soldier R3 AVD Win Deirdre ew - Vase BTC win Danon Smash ew Sprint Star of Yuen Long R6 Indy Champ Win - Mile Win Bright win - Cup R9 and R10 TBD Indy Champ will be the main bet I think....depends how races 1-3 go!! Good luck! |
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The one thing that worries about AVD is they’ve put blinkers on for the first time
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R6 - I meant to add Classic Posh ew
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Those HK Handicaps give me a real headache, I like to steer clear of them... you're a brave boy.
Maybe his run at the Breeders Cup made them go for the blinkers... interesting?! Lucky Lilac had her QE Cup form boosted this morning, Satono Garnet who finished 9th in that race won the G3 at Chukyo. I will take any positive after that dodgy vet report! I think Indy Champ is sure to run well but Normcore is bang there with him if you use Aerolithe (super consistent filly) as a guide and the times they both clocked at Tokyo (G1 Victoria Mile 1m 30.5sec / G1 Yasuda Kinen 1m 30.9sec) are near enough identical... Normcore slightly quicker. Hopefully one of them wins. All the best tomorrow! |
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Not a bad start... Beat The Clock is the ultimate warrior. Awesome riding by the Magic Man.
 I think Lucky Lilac would have won if she wasn't lame, great run! Glory Vase impressive and came on a ton for his first run after a long break... that's the Japanese way. |
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Three winners out of six so far... superb HK.
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Not the most stylish jock but he galavenised Win Bright for another great win at Sha Tin... get in.
 Normcore narrowly missing out for a place screwed my EW 4 fold... thought she had them covered coming into the straight but she didn't pick up like she has at Tokyo. She was 4.5 lenghts in front of Amdire Mars last time out! |
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*Admire Mars!
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Great tipping HK and MrDinos.
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Cheers Unc.
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Unusually for me I didn’t have any bets this year - looked through the races last night but nothing appealed at the prices. Closest I came was Hot King Prawn in the sprint so glad I sat it out.
The unlucky horse of the meeting was surely Indy Champ in the mile. |
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Holy sh!t what a run by Riko HK, massive performance... jumping was sublime. Had a little bit on EW!
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Yep Unc, Indy Champ had no clear run on the rail. He didn't come out the gates that great which put him in a tricky position early on.
Dubai Turf could be a good race for Normcore... going left handed, extra furlong and a more galloping track will suit her better. |
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What a day, very happy for you HK!
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Cracking day - I made Win Bright my main bet in the end and also had the quinella!
KR topped it off nicely....think he’ll get hammered now by the handicapper though! Target was Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and the run yesterday was to put him right but.....wow! Shame he didn’t run like that at the festival! |
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He jumped for fun yesterday and traveled sweetly all the way. Great training performance, there is more to come from Riko... shame his handicap mark will be shooting up?! He loves December, four big performances on the trot, unbelievable!
I still think a flat track is what he wants and yesterday proved it for me. I can understand why you want to go the Cheltenham route but from what I've seen of his runs over the last few years, that kind of course doesn't play to his strengths. His run at Chepstow over hurdles always stuck in my head, he didn't seem to enjoy that very undulating track. Just my opinion HK... you're going to have another fun season with Riko wherever you take him. |
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He’s gone up 6 Mr D - unlikely to run New Years Day but will race in Jan on 11th or the week after depending on other entries (especially the race on 11th at Kempton
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I think going up 6 was pretty fair, 149 is still OK IMO. Skipping Cheltenham on Wednesday would be a wise move as I mentioned before... it would be great to see him run on New Years Day but he looks much better on a flat track and Kempton would be ideal, especially with how slick Riko jumps a fence.
La Bague Au Roi ran well yesterday at Doncaster, not far off winning. |
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The issue with Kempton on 11th is that there’s a suggestion Altior might run in the race as it seems the owners are still trying to make him into a GC horse - it’s also more suited to front running so possibly the handicap at Ascot on 18th could be a better proposition (the one Cyrname won in 2019 when rated 150 I think).
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Nicky Henderson has announced Altior will not take up his entry in the Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton this weekend — and also revealed his only entry at Cheltenham in March will be the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
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Henderson will now wait for the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on February 8.
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