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Middle Park Stakes (28th Sept)
Middle Park Stakes (28th Sept)
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Replies: 64
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Has to be Siskin at the prices for me.
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backing ballydoyle herte in decent form and decent prices monarch of egypt not got a lot to find with siskin and progressive and lope y fernandez
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a new juvenile course record in the royal lodge stakes at newmarket today, so the ground is perfect, can one of the runners break the juvenile course record
in the middle park stakes, here's hoping. |
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Hard to see what ran to form there barring the first two. The form of those behind cannot be taken too seriously imo. We will have to wait until another day.
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That was a comfortable win for Earthlight. Could he run in The Dewhurst on 12th Ocy? One bookie think so despite trainer saying the horse will go home,...eat and sleep.
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We already knew the form of the first two, nothing new there, but the 3rd and 4th make any other form questionable. Plus it did look like the rails was the place to be. Track bias, who would ever believe it?
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looking at the middle park stakes wikipedia page, earthlight is the fastest winner of the race in over 40 years, the only other horse's that ran close to that time of 109.31, were oasis dream 109.61 and bushranger 109.56, suppose the going is usually a lot slower this time of year. did have my suspicion that earthlight's race times didnt back up the official going's in france when he was winning those races, disappointed siskin didnt run.
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Following wind Roadrunner.
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the time of the race is set in stone as far as im concerned, you cant deny that weather conditions can and do play a part, other people can calculate those
things, thats never been a part of my form study and wouldnt know where to start anyway, dont watch a lot of racing either, ive got my own way of doing things, more akin to how form study was done before doing race video form became the norm. |
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just seen it now, a new juvenile course record in the middle park stakes earthlight 109.31
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Yes, very fast time in both the Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes. Strong tailwind clearly a factor, and a strong pace in both races.
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brigust1
28 Sep 19 15:26 Joined: 07 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 11,179 | Blogger: brigust1's blog We already knew the form of the first two, nothing new there, but the 3rd and 4th make any other form questionable. Plus it did look like the rails was the place to be. Track bias, who would ever believe it? agree, ignore this race. |
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FELTFAIR
26 Sep 19 12:57 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 6,187 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog Nine left in with all the big guns standing their ground so sticking with Earthlight win and Golden Horde each way. great stuff |
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To be fair, Mums Tipple was reported lame after the race, which more than likely explains his disappointing performance.
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Will that be the end on Mum's Tipple? Given an incredibly high rating unlikely to be matched let alone beaten as a 3 year old. This late in the season stud will beckon.
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So what rating did you give it?
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I don't do ratings as such but when looking closely at the Middle Park for a bet I thought, as expressed and explained earlier on this thread, that 107 would be about right. And guess what? RPR who rated him 119 before the Middle Park rated him 104 for Saturday. That was more in keeping with his previous run. In my humble opinion of course.
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you should of layed mums tipple for a lot of money if that was your reckoning of its rating 107, it would of had no chance of troubling the official top rated on the day, was looking forward to the horse running a big race in line with the professional rating firms expectations, siskin was only rated 113 i think
that was a fair assessment of his form coming into the race, wasnt able to take his chance in the end. |
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Roadrunner I do understand that ratings are not always to be trusted and would not risk good money simply on ratings alone. And that was the only quibble I had with Mum's Tipple. When I lay a horse or back a horse I look for other reasons to add to positive or negative ratings I do not rely on them alone. In this instance I thought the rating was wrong but actually I still have little evidence that it was. Apparently the horse was found to be lame afterwards so I am not daft enough to think that what happened on Saturday was conclusive evidence one way or the other.
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there was 4 new course records at newmarket on saturday, 3 new course records when oasis dream won the middle park stakes and 2 new course records when bushranger won the same race too, you do need the perfect race conditions to beat these records most of the time.
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Absolutely correct Roadrunner. There are just so many variables especially on a straight course. On round courses there is rail position to take into consideration and any racecourse that has had major developments to the racecourse itself. There was a lot of hype recently about Battaash beating Dayjur's course record when in actual fact they raced on completely different surfaces.
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Brigust, you were proved right to question the form of MT. I ended up backing him in the morning, I was on a break and didn't get to see the race until much later but it was a very poor effort, especially as I reckon Earthlight ran about 10lbs below his previous best. No excuses for my bet as I knew there was a question mark over the form and even if it was as good as it looked there was still the chance he might no follow it up, yet I still considered around 11/4 decent value. Regardless of whether MT turns out to be as good as he looked at York I'm doubtful he ran to form in the Middle Park, but time will tell.
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Strange to say Figgis but am of a mind to drop the race following Summer Sands' performance yesterday . Given that I had to push the winner I agree that Earthlight ran well below his best . I couldn't argue with your 10lb .
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And the Mums Tipple figure was right .
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make up my own mind