Middle Park Stakes (28th Sept)

I have Mum's Tipple 5lbs ahead of Earthlight, and from the way Earthlight won last time I see no obvious reason to think he can make up the deficit. The only concern with MT is how much the race took out of him, particularly as Moore rode him right out, which seemed unnecessary. He certainly wouldn't be the first 2yo to regress from such an effort. I still intend to back MT but will wait until pre-race to make sure he shows no obvious negative signs. I have Siskin a further 7lbs behind Earthlight. In his favour I'd say he's the only one of the three that might not have reached a peak yet. Last time out, whether intentional or not, Coolmore set up a falsely run race, so it is the Railway Stakes I rate him on and he was eased down there. So no surprise if he can improve again but improving another 12lbs to match an in form MT is asking a lot. So it's MT for me and even with the doubt he is value, in my view.

Before looking at the actual runners I would certainly be a layer of Mum's Tipple if I had to choose between backing and laying. She did look exciting last time and RPR raised her rating by 37, that's a lot for one run considering the 2nd and third in her race have not proved themselves to be anything special as yet. I know they think a lot of her but not sure it is that much and the jump from a sales race to a Group 1 is a big jump. That makes her price too short for me without knowing what will run. We do seem to be going through a stage of wide margin winners of ordinary races have their Group 1 odds being clipped disproportionately in my opinion. Charlton had a wide margin winner the other day of an ordinary conditions race and it's odds were immediately cut for the classics. Pinatubo, on the other hand has been beating proven opponents. The difference between a class horse and an ordinary horse is huge so I do think there has been an over reaction by the bookies to ensure they are not caught out. I am not sure anyone would have actually taken these prices.

Of course he is a he. I must have had quadrilateral on my mind.
It looks like he rated the race through National League although there was no way you could really compare the same ratings he has given him. The 3rd horse, Klopp of the Kop then ran again to give him a guide. However to substantiate his position and to support the rating he gave him in Mum's Tipple race he rated the 5th horse in that race Rapidash to have improved 20lb. Unfortunately then the horse that won that race Cosmic Power ran again and he ran nearly 20lb below his rating next time.
Given the 20lb differentials in one race then that leads me to believe Klopp of the Kop only ran to the rating of his last race, he never improved, and that puts Mum's Tipple on what I think may be a more realistic 107 rating. That makes his rating only being raised a more realistic 25lbs.
Methinks the rating should be treated with some caution until the next run.

I don't know if Mums Tipple would handle soft ground if that's what we get. I remember his sire very well as it was the last time I successfully backed a horse as a 2yo to win the Guineas . In my defence it isn't a bet I've done much since. It was his second start that convinced me and that was run on soft ground so hopefully MT inherits the same ability to handle the ground. Given his style of running I'm less concerned than I would be if he was a horse held up for a telling turn of foot, so I still intend to back him unless it becomes really heavy. The bigger concern for me is still him backing up that big effort, although in my view Earthlight didn't exactly have an easy race last time either.

I have Mumms Tipple 1lb ahead of Siskin and 4lb ahead of Earthlight .

I see Timeform have the difference between MT and Earthlight even wider as they have MT 7lbs ahead.

Can anyone tell me which horse they used as a base to work their calculations from? RPR must have used National League.

I firmly believe a rating allocated based on just one run (no matter how scintillating) is inconclusive and more likely inaccurate given time - in maths it takes two points to plot a straight line. How the so-called "experts" even considered this as credible is beyond my comprehension.

Actually Timeform and the BHA have both said on tv that they use a single horse to rate around. But I don't want to get into that I just wondered surely at least one horse must be considered to be running to form around which the ratings could be assessed? What other way is there?

Well I am sorry but after the Queen Anne Stakes they stated quite clearly that they rated the race through Indomito and the BHA stated they ran the Juddmonte Stakes through St Nicholas Abbey. And to prove their point Timeform had a huge illustration with the ratings of the significant runners and the rating they used to make their calculations. And if you look at the BHA ratings you will clearly see that the only horse that ran to it's rating is St Nicholas Abbey.
I have the Timeform recordings, on the Morning Line and Racing UK, on my computer.
Perhaps they have subsequently, and following my badgering, seen the light. Too f   ing late though.

I think you'll find I was entirely sticking to the Middle Park. Almost beyond belief that Frankel gets another mention but then I remember who I'm dealing with.

See Raahy represents Mum's Tipple form in the 4.50 Chelmsford.

Brigust, but even that is pointless to anyone looking for an absolute truth. In any race they could perhaps try to justify themselves about a winner's rating by pointing out that they had the 2nd and 3rd horses running exactly to their previous marks. But who's to say that those previous ratings were right in the first place? I'm sure there will always be someone who disagrees.

I totally agree about Blue Point and Battash because there is history between these two and any race they run in together, I know BP has been retired, could be judged by how they performed. For example if they were beaten at the time they ran in the same race and finished within the proximity they were expected to finish then the possibility of the rating the winner achieved being correct is high. In my opinion. Nothing is gold plated I know.

Latest betting (best available odds at time of writing) on the 13 confirmed entries: 2/1 Earthlight, 5/2 Mums Tipple, 5/1 Siskin, 8/1 Monarch Of Egypt, 12/1 Threat, 16/1 Lope Y Fernandez, 20/1 Golden Horde, 40/1 bar. The Prix Morny form of Earthlight will come under scrutiny when Raffle Prize contests the Cheveley Park Stakes (half an hour prior to the Middle Park). The betting looks about right and I can't see a sensible bet here: Siskin hasn't yet achieved a top-class time figure, and there's not a lot between Earthlight and Mums Tipple; if suited by the drop back to 6f I could see Threat running a big race (I have him on a par with Siskin, so at 12/1 he might represent a bit of e/w value), and by the same token Golden Horde, who beat Threat at Goodwood, looks a mite overpriced at 20/1.

thanks for putting up the possible  runners james

Thought I would never see the day Figgis put up ONE selection before a race. Well done young man.

It doesn't look like a betting race for me. Fabre is not confident Earthlight will handle the course, I'm not convinced Mum's Tipple is Group 1 yet but there is nothing I like running for me, I don't like any of the Irish runners or Threat.

Indirectly Wichita did the Mum's Tipple form no harm today . Monoski did not do the Pinatubo form much good .