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2020 - 1,000 Guineas
2020 - 1,000 Guineas
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Do Timeform rate Millisle higher than Quadrilateral? I doubt it. Also Charlton is a much better trainer.
I still think she is going to win which is why i'll be having my free bet on her!:P |
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Tropbeau was very disappointing, she had the beating of the field on more than one piece of form and at the time I thought she would have been suited by the switch to Deauville more than most. She was in a good position through out and travelled well but just didn't have much of an effort in her. Maybe something will come to light.
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re: ratings. Timeform had Millisle (115) 9lbs ahead of Quadrilateral (106p) at the end of last season. On official ratings, however, Millisle (115) is only one pound ahead of Quadrilateral (114).
re: trainers. Roger Charlton is a very talented, intelligent and experienced trainer. One of the best in the business, no question. But I can't agree that he's 'a much better trainer' than the equally capable, intelligent and experienced Jessica Harrington (one of the shrewdest and most adaptable trainers in the business, in my opinion). |
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Correction re: ratings
Sorry, I mistakenly gave you Quadrilateral's pre-Fillies' Mile Timeform rating. I haven't got her updated rating, but she's not included in the list of two-year-olds rated 111+, so I guess she's rated about 110. The racecard will be published shortly, and that will give her updated rating. |
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Quadrilateral's rating is confirmed as 110p (I searched through last season's weekly ratings updates to find it).
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-pinatubo-produces-another-performance-of-merit-14102019 |
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For me, the filly with clearly the best form is Raffle Prize. In my view she's already shown form good enough to win a Guineas but the obvious doubt is her stamina. Maybe she can last the extra 2 furlongs but even at a decent price I'll pass. I have Millisle's Cheveley Park form next best. Raffle Prize was obviously below par that day but it was still a good level shown from the winner. Looking at Millisle's previous runs the question is whether she was a much improved filly after four races, or was it just a case where she ran out of her skin on the day and unlikely to be repeated? I'm more inclined to think the latter, and as she's another with stamina doubts I reckon she's pretty short.
Last year I thought Quadrilateral was more of an Oaks filly than one for the Guineas. Unless she improves again I can see her being placed but it would be disappointing if the level she's shown proves good enough to win. As mentioned, maybe she can progress further but so could others, such as Love, who I have at a similar level on her best piece of form. The rest don't really look up to Guineas winning standard but it's not exactly unknown for a relatively unfancied filly to show big improvement on the day. With no standout runner guaranteed to stay and no proof of any of them remaining in last season's form there could be an upset. Anyone on Quadrilateral at a big price has done well but if she gets any shorter I will be a layer. |
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James: Charlton has an excellent record at Newmarket particularly with favourites. I trust he can get the job done.
Harrington's record in the UK is not great. Not saying she can't pull this off but I dont rate her over Roger. Indeed if you follow Harrington's runners here you would be skint. The danger is almost certainly -as always - the O'Brien horse. I notice it is being backed ... |
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2003 & 2004 winners Russian Rhythm & Attraction last to win this race jumping straight from 6f. 12/1 & 11/2 respectively. Millisle too short to back but could drift plenty before the off. Looking at the rest now.
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I'm happy to lay off some of my 40/1 Millisle (what an astonishing price that was for a Cheveley Park winner) at 100/30, and still have the two favourites in play at 40s and 14s. I'm not surprised that Love has shortened (due to the O'Brien/Galileo factor), but I get the impression that Aidan suspects she'll be better over the Oaks trip, and I can't see Raffle Prize lasting the trip (though fast ground will help her, and her trainer seems confident she'll get the trip).
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am on love at 12s but one that interests me more for the oaks is jgs shimmering who is stoutly bred and should improve for further than tommorows mile, interesting that jg is pitching her in at the deep end in the gns . took the 50/1 for the oaks .
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Shimmering is an intriguing runner. She looks totally outclassed and has done nothing on the track to merit being thrown into Group 1 company: her form is exceptionally moderate (although she looked quite promising when winning on the all-weather just before Christmas); her half-brother is just a 95-rated 6f handicapper, and her dam showed nothing in two starts on the racetrack. I can only assume that she's done exceptionally well over the winter/spring and has been doing spectacular things on the gallops. Whether she can emulate her grand-dam, who won the Fillies' Mile in an unbeaten juvenile campaign and was later runner-up in the Irish Guineas and the Coronation Stakes, remains to be seen. Famous last words.
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With two antepost non runners
 I will go for Boomer e/w 4 places @ 14/1. Not beaten far in the May Hill or Fillies Mile. |
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I think Love is the one who wants the rain to stay away the most. There are showers forecast however.
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Have Millisle from 20s downwards and just hope she can stay balanced during the latter stages .
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Given that you normally require a horse who stays further than a mile to win a Guineas, I personally couldn’t back Millisle or Raffle Prize today. Assuming the rain stays away, I’d fancy Love to reverse the form with Quadrilateral. It also seems significant AOB is sending only one horse over for this, although that may well be down to Heffernan, Lordan etc not being able to travel over. I at least expected Peaceful or So Wonderful to run, but looks like they will run in the Irish equivalent next weekend.
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Paterson92 07 Jun 20 09:51
Given that you normally require a horse who stays further than a mile to win a Guineas, I personally couldn’t back Millisle or Raffle Prize today. Obviously plenty of strong staying fillies have won it but so have plenty of speedy types. There is a saying that the 1,000 Guineas is like the last juvenile race of a horses career (though the extra month this year may negate that) and plenty of fast two year olds who barely stayed a mile have gone on to win it - Natagora, Attraction, Special Duty, Las Meninas for example. With fast ground, a tail wind and an advantage to be near the rail it is proving difficult to make up ground in the last 2f. |
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Not my favourite race but did back Love a while ago and have traded. Couldn`t resist the 7/2 Quadrilateral. Either will do but not holding my breath given some of the strange results in this race.
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Absolutely and there will certainly be winners with similar profiles go on to win future Guineas. Plenty of encouragement from the Dam’s side to suggest Millisle will get the mile for example.
I’d say Special Duty in 2010 was the last similar type going into her Guineas in that she hadn’t ran a yard further than 6f as a 2 year old. However the main difference is that she got a prep run beforehand and that prep run was over 7f. |
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I think Love is running here because of Royal Ascot and the Epsom Oaks to avoid quarantine, I believe.
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Had few £££ on Quadrilateral at 4.4 last night. Think she prob want further as a 3yo, but thought the same yest with the 2000gns winner, & he outstayed them, think she can do the same.
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How many horses have caught Covid 19 impossible 123?
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I’d say Love is running here because it’s the first Classic of the season and her trainer has an exceptional record in the race in recent times ...
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Not brave enough to lay Quadrilateral at the price. As I think she's certainly good enough to place in a decent year and with doubts about the faster fillies she might just be good enough in a poor year. So no bet but would like to see Raffle Prize last home as she was the best 2yo, in my view, and very consistent until being a bit below par in her last race.
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if the stalls are on the the far side a split field looks inevitable - I'll go for Shimmering
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Only 2 winners of the Cheveley Park going on to win the 1000g in the last 30 years.
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Well done the Ballydoyle boys. Simply the best.
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Prediction for next year's Guineas winner:
A Galileo filly trained by Aidan O'Brien Prediction for 2022 Guineas: A Galileo filly trained by Aidan O'Brien Prediction for 2023 Guineas: A Galileo filly trained by Aidan O'Brien.... |
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Drawn 14 and no cover,wins over 4 lengths. Outstanding performance on ground clearly to her liking.Probably the best 1000 Guineas winners I have seen.
Quadrilateral also ran an exceptional race after pulling and tugging from flag fall. |
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Superb performance by the winner - just very professional. Oaks looks a penalty kick.
Second had the run of the race so was almost certainly flattered but Quadrilateral is still a very nice prospect - Charlton is the last trainer I’d want a Guineas horse with but with some more time she should be winning a Group 1 this season. |
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Really impressive, though I do think Good or better ground is imperative for her to perform like that. Soft ground at Epsom would make things very open.
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My initial impression is that this was a slightly below par Guineas, purely in terms of the form. Of the leading contenders (last season's top performers), Raffle Prize clearly wasn't right and dropped away tamely, Millisle looked unbalanced and ill at ease on the track (which is odd, considering that she handled it OK in the Cheveley Park Stakes on quick ground last autumn), and the favourite Quadrilateral looked a bit fresh and probably wasn't as ready for this test as the winner. It's hard to ignore the fact that a couple of thoroughly exposed fillies rated 98 and 97 finished just behind Quadrilateral in 4th and 5th - Final Song (100/1, OR 98) finished a length behind the favourite, and Romsey (200/1, OR 97) finished a further ½ length behind. It's hard to say whether either of those fillies improved on their official rating, though doubtless the handicapper will put them up a few pounds. The runner-up Cloak Of Spirits has clearly done well and was expected to run well, but her pre-race official rating of 106 was based on a rather dubious interpretation of last season's Rockfel Stakes where the exposed 97-rated maiden Stylistique had finished within half a length of the winner.
In conclusion, I suspect that Love didn't need to improve at all on her official rating of 111 (based on her Moyglare Stud Stakes win and Fillies' Mile form last season) to win yesterday's Guineas. She's clearly gone the right way, she showed more speed and better acceleration than last year, and she will take all the beating in the Oaks (where the longer trip should suit her even better), but the bare form of this year's Guineas makes it look just an average renewal. |
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I have it as a good up to scratch winning performance but nothing outstanding. 5lbs better than O'Brien's winner last year, Hermosa, but a couple of pounds behind Winter and 7lbs behind the exceptional performance put up by Minding. She goes to Epsom with an obvious fav's chance if she recovers in time. As for Quadrilateral, even though I'm sure she wouldn't have beaten Love yesterday, I have her running some way below her best form. Hopefully that isn't a sign of permanent decline and if she can go on from this I reckon she can narrow the deficit over 12f, and at least give Love more of a race.
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I think I/we overrated Millisle's Cheveley Park form , that day she was scrubbed along the whole way and only ran properly on reaching the uphill finish under strong driving . She was all over the place going into the dip . On Sunday she travelled sweetly initially , but only had 3 behind her at halfway when the pace increased . She did run on , and at least had a relatively easy race , and may be a soft ground horse ,but over what distance and what track I have no idea .
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Figgis, I totally agree with you on Love's figure. I have it pretty much the same in relation to the fillies you mention. Very hard to beat at Epsom if she can reproduce it. I really was hoping Quad could win but I've lost faith in her now. I can't see her settling in an Oaks, nor handling the track under pressure. There's still time for something to emerge to give Love something to think about, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Howellsy, bearing in mind the time comparisons on the day and the fact that Quadrilateral could only finish 1 length ahead of Final Song and 1.5 lengths in front of Romsey, do you believe she ran to her best form? Surely she can't be written off just yet with a run under her belt and going up in distance.
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Figgis, I actually have her running exactly the same speed figure in her last 3 starts. I know few would accept that, but that's how I see it. Her one chance of success is that a step up in trip brings about significant improvement. I now think that's unlikely as she seems to have become a bit temperamental and less tractable.
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I agree with her running the same figure on her previous two starts, but have her a good 8lbs below that on Sunday. I too thought she was a bit keen in the Guineas but I'd me amazed if she can't get 12f so would just put that down to being a bit fresh first time up.
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Hindsight obviously, but having seen how Quadrilateral ran she looked like the one horse who would have benfitted the most from a Prep run (if things were normal). I expect she'll travel a lot better on her next start.
Domino Darling is the only fly in the ointment I can see to Love. She runs in the same Listed race Haggas won with Sea Of Class two years ago, at Newbury this week. |
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1000 form doesnt look very good after the coronation does it
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Yes, it's reasonable to assume that Albigna would have beaten Love if they had met in the Guineas. Her winning performance in the Coronation Stakes was the best we've seen from a three-year-old filly so far this season, and let's not forget that she beat Love into fifth in last season's Debutante Stakes. The Guineas form does look rather weak this year, even though the winner is a smart filly and has done well from two to three. The Guineas form was further let down by Millisle in the Commonwealth Cup: she has failed to run to anything like her Cheveley Park Stakes form in her two starts this season.
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