Latest betting on the Prix Marcel Boussac (Tango was withdrawn this morning, leaving nine runners): 5/2 Savarin, 11/4 Albigna, 6 Bionic Woman, 8 Marieta, 10 Flighty Lady, 20 bar. Albigna is generally around 2/1, with 11/4 available with only one firm. Given Jessica Harrington's positive comments about her filly, the betting looks about right. Albigna backers will certainly want to think about taking the 11/4.

Albigna stayed on well in the soft ground to win the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac today, but she was being hard ridden and not getting anywhere some way out and it was only in the final 100m that she really got going and managed to overhaul long-time leader Marieta, who faded badly in the last 50m. It was the first time Albigna had raced on soft ground and she drifted in the betting, but she seemed to handle it OK, and you'd have to conclude from that stamina-laden performance that she will be well suited by middle distances next season (her dam was a multiple winner over 12f and there's loads of stamina on that side of her family). Marieta was the winner until the final 100m and paid a compliment to Tropbeau, who beat her very comfortably in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados. I wouldn't be in any hurry to back Albigna for the Guineas, as her trainer Jessie Harrington also has Millisle (winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes), Cayenne Pepper (who will aim to give Harrington a Gr.1 treble in the Fillies' Mile on Friday) and the superbly-bred Gr.2 Debutante Stakes winner Alpine Star (half-sister to Alpha Centauri, descended from the great Miesque).

Nine fillies have been declared to run in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile on Friday (listed here with currently available odds from leading bookmakers): 9/4 Quadrilateral, 11/4 Cayenne Pepper, 3 Love, 11/2 Powerful Breeze, 14 Boomer, 16 Queen Daenerys, 18 Anastarsia, 33 West End Girl, 50 Ananya.

Collateral form suggests that Cayenne Pepper has a good chance of beating Love: the former beat Love's stablemate So Wonderful comfortably by 2½ lengths in a Gr.3 over this trip last time at the Curragh, whereas Love beat the same filly by 1½ lengths in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (where So Wonderful met trouble in running in the closing stages and looked a shade unlucky).

Some might argue that Love's Moyglare Stud Stakes form has been boosted by the runner-up's subsequent win in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes, but Daahyeh had the best form going into that race and didn't need to find any improvement to win at Newmarket in a bunched finish beating lower-rated fillies. Albigna (6th in the Moyglare, beaten 2½ lengths) went on to produce a much improved performance to land the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, but it was revealed that she had been in season at the Curragh and was clearly below her best there. Soul Search (4th in the Moyglare) went on to be beaten in a Listed race at Fairyhouse, so I'm far from convinced that this year's Moyglare was anywhere near a vintage renewal. On the other hand, Love is likely to improve for the step up to a mile and is probably capable of achieving a higher rating. Her full sisters Flattering and Peach Tree have both proved to be highly inconsistent performers and it's hard to predict whether Love will follow a similar pattern.

Powerful Breeze is unbeaten in two starts and won the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes last time in a bunched finish in workmanlike style (narrowly holds Boomer on that form). The form of that race looks very ordinary for the grade, but the 6th Cloak Of Spirits (beaten 3½ lengths) managed to finish just half a length behind Daahyeh in the Rockfel next time, so it's entirely possible that this lightly-raced filly, who's proven at the trip (though unproven on soft ground), will be able to compete well with the likes of Love and Cayenne Pepper.

There's a lot of hype surrounding Quadrilateral, so impressive last time in a conditions race at Newbury, but she's a very exciting prospect and if there's a potential Guineas winner among this lot, she's by far the likeliest candidate. She's unproven on soft ground, so she'll want the ground to dry up, but I wouldn't want to bet against her. 14/1 was a fair price for the Guineas after her Newbury romp, but this will tell us whether she's the real deal.

I don't think Quadrilateral showed quite enough speed last time for a Guineas but I could see her having enough for an Oaks. Today should give a bit more of a pointer to her chance of staying further next year.

It looks like another bunch of non-entities after Minding and Alpha Centauri.

James, I have the Fillies Mile up to par for the race, but that's a level that is usually just short of Guineas winning class. Minding won both races but she won the FM in above average style. I've just had a quick look and I think you have to go back to Bosra Sham for another, and she seemed an above average winner also as far as I remember. I've got Quadrilateral running to a very similar figure she put up when winning the time before at Newbury, so no improvement. I was very interested to see how she got the mile at this stage as I think she has the potential to win an Oaks. I thought she'd get it but you never know for sure. She obviously got it very well and if she goes on next year I haven't seen a better Oaks prospect at this stage.

As to her chance in a Guineas I think she needs to improve. Personally I'm always on the look out for a filly like Sky Lantern, where I think very little improvement is needed, but this year the only filly I've seen close to that level is Raffle Prize and she seems a doubtful stayer. Obviously it's possible Quadrilateral will progress further. I thought fillies like Hermosa and Blue Bunting didn't have the speed for a Guineas as 2yos but had them making 7lbs and 8lbs improvement respectively. I think Quadrilateral has about only 5 or 6 pounds to find. The only thing is it's often the ones you, or at least I, least expect who find the most. I know you're on at bigger prices, so that's different, but at the current price I say she's too short.

I guess it's all rather irrelevant at the moment, but for what it's worth, Tropbeau and Khayzaraan feature among 16 entries for the Prix de la Grotte, traditional prep race for the French 1,000 Guineas (Poule d'Essai des Pouliches), due to be run at Longchamp next Monday. Fabre's filly is an intended runner, which suggests that her connections are preparing to run her in the French Guineas rather than bring her over to Newmarket. The traditional prep race for the Newmarket Guineas (the Prix Imprudence) has been cancelled this year. It's almost unheard of for a filly to run in the Prix de la Grotte and then the Newmarket Guineas. We don't even know at this stage whether foreign-trained fillies will be allowed to compete in the Guineas, so ante-post betting is a complete stab in the dark.

Roger Charlton is reportedly pleased with the progress made by Quadrilateral over the winter and is keeping her ticking over.

A narrow half-length win for Tropbeau this afternoon at Longchamp sets her up nicely for a crack at either the French or English Guineas. I haven't watched the replay yet, so don't know how comfortable or hard-fought the victory was. Trainer Andre Fabre thought his filly would need the race, so this was an encouraging start.
Khayzaraan finished tailed off, with something clearly amiss.

I just watched the replay. It was fairly comfortable, hands and heels. She'll improve for the run and for a quicker surface. She's proved she stays a mile. Now we wait to hear about future running plans.

With the French Guineas scheduled for 1st June and racing in Britain now not expected to resume before June at the very earliest, I guess there's a possibility that Tropbeau could come over for the Newmarket Guineas, if all goes to plan next time in the Pouliches. She should have a fitness advantage too!

In the Prix de Fontainebleau the winner set a sedate pace and was given an easy lead, so when he was ridden clear the others had too much ground to make up (poor judgement from the other jockeys, in my opinion). In the Prix de la Grotte they went a true pace (arguably, Khayzaraan went off too fast and paid the price, folding tamely), so it paid to be fairly close to the pace (not wanting to come from too far back in the soft ground). Those held up in rear had no chance. Mickael Barzalona judged the pace perfectly on the winner.

Harry, I understood John's question as referring to a pace bias (for whatever reason, presumably the soft ground) on that particular day, rather than a track bias (being a speed friendly track, for example) as such. But John might want to come back and comment on that. My own thoughts are that a track bias (favouring front-runners, for example) only exists for jockeys with a decent clock inside their head. Tight turning tracks (Chester, Chelmsford, Catterick being obvious examples in the UK) can certainly favour front-runners (especially when they're well drawn in races where there is a significant draw effect), but only when they're ridden by intelligent jockeys who know how to judge pace (in the conditions).

It can definitely be an advantage, for example, to be prominent at a track like Goodwood or Longchamp if the jockey is a good judge of pace and takes account of the conditions, but there's no advantage at all if they go off too fast and have nothing left to give in the final stages of the race. Equally, there is no point using exaggerated hold-up tactics if jockeys in front are dictating a sensible pace (for the conditions).

If a jockey has judged the pace well and is riding a horse that can quicken or stay on from a prominent position in the latter stages, it's very difficult for a horse to come from off the pace in soft ground and get into a challenging position. I think that was certainly the case in some of the races at Longchamp last week.

sorry for late reply james been busy trying to formulate a new handicap system that is a head feck

at first i struggled with your thinking but on reflection we aren't a world apart, my reading was john meant a speed favouring track i don't know why i like the yank term, basically meaning it was impossible to win unless you had a certain track position, in this case off the front and the front end speed could not be closed down, anyway thanks for setting my mind straight on your thinking

this 1000 guineas is looking it's normal brutal affair..it will be interesting to see what jessie harrington may bring, as she looks to have a really nice crop of fillies

Raffle Prize is 25/1

Frankie all but confirmed to ride her.

https://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/31648457/1000-guineas---huge-price

Didn't see this thread. Apologies James.

With Covid-19 scuppering my antepost bet on Tropbeau I have looked at the market and trainer comments and landed on Peaceful at 20/1.

Hated the ground when narrowly beaten over c&d at the back-end so it is easy to forgive that, and very quick ground loojs assured.

Just watched the Pouliches replay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdJikCXjhYE
My initial impression is that Tropbeau didn't quite get the trip today: she was well placed, Mickael Barzalone came to deliver his challenge and she briefly looked the likely winner, but her effort was short-lived and she seemed to be outstayed in the last 100 metres. Maybe something will come to light to explain this disappointing performance - after all, she'd beaten today's winner in the Prix de la Grotte three weeks ago. The winning time was fast (1m 35.68, tailwind?), though 1.5s slower than the colts' equivalent race won by Victor Ludorum.

Update:

Dettori also confirmed he will partner the Mark Johnston-trained Raffle Prize in the Qipco 1,000 Guineas (3.35) the following day. She can be backed at 16-1.

The daughter of Slade Power won three of her six starts last season, including the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes, and is among 17 entries.

Quadrilateral heads the market at 5-2 for trainer Roger Charlton. She enjoyed an unbeaten juvenile season, which included a narrow victory over Powerful Breeze in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at Newmarket.

1,000 Guineas nominations: Boomer, Cloak Of Spirits, Final Song, Graceful Magic, Les Hogues, Love, Millisle, Peaceful, Quadrilateral, Raffle Prize, Romsey, Rose Of Kildare, Shimmering, So Wonderful, Summer Romance, Under The Stars, Yes Always

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/1000-guineas/winner

Advised 25/1 but I was boosted to 28/1 so I'm in a good position. It will get shorter later in the week when the housewife money comes for Frankie's mount sow what should I do?

great to have the racing back ,we take it for granted like most things but boy do i miss it ! on the plus side all the money I have saved not betting hardly in the last 10 weeks or so means a healthy bank for the ante post on the classics and even next years chelt fest , anyway good luck for the season all . all systems go for the guineas this week .

Disaster!

Frankie no longer riding Raffle Prize (see other thread).

She is now 10/1 with bookmakers. I think that is as good as it gets to be honest unless Johnston and connections 'fancy' it and start lumping on. 

Possible. We'll see.

My plan is still to trade out for a profit and shove in on the jolly which looks like a cert to me.

John Ingles, in a well-argued preview, has picked out Millisle as the likeliest filly to upset the favourite Quadrilateral (my two remaining long-term picks):
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/previews/1000-guineas-preview-step-up-to-a-mile-is-no-problem-for-millisle-362020