Horse Antepost
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National Hunt 19/20 Big Races Thread
National Hunt 19/20 Big Races Thread
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Sint
 4-10 Caid De berlais 0.5pt Alcala 0.25pt ew Dylrow 0.25pt ew minella rocco 0.5pt |
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Grand Annual
Paloma Blue 1pt win @ 10/1 (B3.6.5) |
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wd sint,
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Grand Annual
Eclair De Beaufeu 1pt win 7’s Winter Escape 0.5pts EW 5pl 40’s Both Various |
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4-50
Two taffs 0.5pt Us and them 0.5pt Winter Escape 0.5pt Ballywood 0.5pt |
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MPCJH
Flash the Steel 0.5pt win @ 20/1 (B3.6.5) |
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Martin Pipe
Column of Fire 1.5pts win 7’s Great White Shark 0.5pt ew 50’s (6pl) Both PP |
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5-30 chelt Final Darts
 Escaria Ten 0.5pt Great White Shark 0.5pt Everybreathyoutake 0.5pt My Sister Sarah 0.5pt |
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B/f - 23 points
Cheltenham Tuesday +16 Wednesday - 3 Thursday. - 6 Friday. - 4 Festival. + 3 pts Very disappointing. Relooking at my ' rules ' I could/should have done better ! Still not a loss. C/F. - 20 pts |
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good first 3 days and all given back today. Mainly because staking went wildly out of hand for no reason!!
Season has been one of amazing bad luck too often and they will happen. The scale of horses trading 1/10th or 1/20th their sp and getting beaten. Can't have mega seasons like 2 years ago sandwiched between normal ones without one like this. Probably my biggest problem this season is the simple fact you cannot assume form is permanent. 2 seasons ago lots of hard work was put in and lots of luck came too. This season a fraction of the work has gone in and the bad luck has hit. Staking has been a complete mess too. Very little variation in levels despite hugely different levels of confidence in some selections. My main lesson to take from this year is you absolutely have to put the work in. Too many bets this season I look back on and they've had 5 mins of looking at a card. Rather than skip a weekend because I'm busy I'll lazy bet and get what I deserve. Reason this season will be loss making is because of complacency. With a dose of arrogance that I've cracked it. Very well done to Noc and others who've had a good season. Apologies for being AWOL on banter and congratulations for big wins. It's been a uniquely busy time personally |
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Correction.
Tuesday at Cheltenham was a 15 pt profit not 16pts. So + 2pts overall. C/F. - 21pts |
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Cvbryne
Interesting comments. For what it's worth, I learnt a long time ago about the dangers of being indisciplined with time, selection process and staking irregularity. I've now retired , so I have time to keep proper betting records. I've also developed a set of rules to identify key indicators that point to potential bets. And I only bet in Handicaps C1 and C2 only. My stakes are a set % of a betting bank. A point equates to a set value. Each selection carries the same stake. Any emotion / ' gut ' feeling is taken away by strict adherence to the required key indicators. The only variance is a doubling of normal stake, usually in big handicap races at festivals, eg Cheltenham ( NH ) or Ascot/Goodwood (,Flat ) I know the ' clinical' way I approach to selection, and betting won't appeal to many. But I'm after long term financial gain, and that's what gives me focus. I still enjoy my racing - win or lose. My aim is to prove to myself that money can be made out of this game .  |
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It's THE danger I think Facts.
Staying handicap chases roi is superb, and any h/c chase 2m5f+, followed by graded races. Identified two years ago and wrote about it in post season analysis. Yet I had 3pts on a 4yo mare in the Triumph today I spent 4 mins looking at!! I won both staying handicaps at Cheltenham this year!! 1.5pts on the 2nd one You're exactly on the money. Discipline. I can still find value in races I can see from the facts of having 4 years of detailed records. But treating a 4yo hurdle the same as a 3m+ class 1 handicap chase from a staking perspective is lacking fundamental discipline. Plain and simple |
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B/F +25.13 IP 22.4
Not going to include Antepost losers already included in running totals. Dream Berry included twice in error, left out smaller bet No Comment -4 Captain Guiness -0.8 Champion Hurdle -3.4 Trainwreck -1.8 Coral Cup -3.6 Midnight Shadow -0.9 Dream Berry -1 Tobefair -3 Kim Muir -6 Ryanair -1.5 Plate -3.3 Midnights Gift -0.8 A Wave Of The Sea -0.9 Gold Cup -1.7 County -2.4 Top Wood -1.8 Albert Bartlett 2.2 Grand Annual -2 Column of Fire -1.5 NRNB McFabulous +0.9 What A Moment +0.9 Politologue +1.4 No Comment +3 Put The Kettle On +16 Kansas City Chief +8.54 Dynamite Dollars +8.32 Great White Shark +4.5 +25.79 IP 1.9 |
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Thoughts....
Touching on the discipline side of things, usual problem of too many bets for the sake of it. I’ve no problem with most of those losers, but these ones, were madness.... Trainwreck -1.8 Kim Muir -6 Plate -3 Albert Bartlett -2.2 Winter Escape -1.6 Ryanair -1.5 Trainwreck - I had only one fancy, Galvin. Why the need to put more up for Trsinwreck than I did for Galvin, god only knows. Kim Muir - My favourite betting race of the festival, but it was all about No Comment or What A Moment in the lead up, So quite how I managed to squander 6pts on backups just because I like the race......amateur hour. Plate - I obviously bet more on 2.4m+ Hcap Chases than anything else, but my record in this is drastic, should be a 1pt win only race with one selection Albert Bartlett - Same as Plate Winter Escape - An old favourite, but he’s rarely delivered, and I knew deep down he was miles not good enough here, but I still bet him. Should be a 0.1pt bet I keep to myself. Ryanair - Bit of aftertiming, but I bet A Plus Tard 25’s last March, and laid off in December for early profit. I didn’t really fancy Frodon or Shattered Love, so certainly didn’t need to bet at all, never mind put them up here. 16.1 unnecessary points wasted there. I’ve touched on this before, threads like these make me have bets for the sake of bets. Madness, it has to stop. |
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+62.01 2 IP
mr fish / itchy feet -1.5 pertemps -1.5 ryanair -1.25 (shatt love 0 a/post) stayers -1.25 (penhill 0 a/post) plate -2 mares novice -2 kim muir -2 THURSDAY -11.5 cere/hook up/a w o t sea -1 burn vict +7.06 (15.12) county -1.5 a bart -1.5 gold cup -2 foxhunter -2 g annual -2 m pipe -2 FRIDAY -4.94 +45.57 0 IP Hugely refreshing posts above. 18 hour days for me over the last week,a huge meeting in terms of commitment. A big healthy deficit to show for that work,not the first time I may add,over many years. Letting the dust settle is my normal way of going. Expectations and reality are very different ends of the spectrum. This sport has an uncanny knack of finding out any of our flaws. As the words of wisdom above suggest,you have to start with yourself. We all visit those dark places,sometimes we need to go there,however hard that can appear. Unsure how the rest of the season will pan out,something we have no control over. Pleasure as always,GL for whatever remains. |
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Well said noc
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Indeed. Terrible week personally, but plenty of good bets put up on here, vwd to those who have come out ahead. Thinning out the bad bets is the key, I have to bet on every race at the fezz, cannot help it, something I never do at other meetings. It's only once a year......
Mullins got his first winner in the bumper yet ended up with 7 winners and was Champion trainer, if it wasn't for his rotten luck the first couple of days he could have had around 10. The continued dominance of him and Elliot is remarkable and I don't see it changing. Hendo will always have a few, but Nicholls had no runners on day 1, and had no runners in the Supreme or Ballymore, and only a 50/1 poke in the Albert Bartlett, not good; his best horses are predominantly French breds. Mullins and Elliot are getting all the good Irish raw material. Other trainers are no where, apart from getting the odd good horse. 3.35 Uttoxeter Captain Drake 1pt win @ 8/1 (B3.6.5) |
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Midlands National - Joe Farrell 1.8pts win 14’s (Various)
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2:00 Kempton - 2pt Mcfabulous 9/4 3.65
3:50 Kempton 1.5pt ew Flic Ou Voyou 7/2 billies |
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I thought I'd cracked it when Put the kettle on & The Conditional went in. Back down to earth for the next 3 days. Well done to everyone who came out in front.
Midlands National- Petit Power 11/2 var 1pt win What do you think will happen at Aintree, abandoned or behind closed doors? |
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Postponed
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2-25 uttox
Coudy Glen 0.5pt Aye Aye Charlie 0.5pt |
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I think postponed as well
WP Sint |
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Sint
2-40 kempton Coeurr De Lion 0.33pt Garo De Juilley 0.33pt Goodbye Dancer 0.33pt |
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3-15 kempton
Solomon Grey 0.5pt Mercy Mercy Me |
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3-35 uttox
Petite Power 1pt Potters Legend 0.5pt |
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Midlands National - 0.5 pts win De Rasher Counter 10’s (Various)
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Petite Power -1
-12.5 |
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Nothing tomorrow, hopefully a wee break now....
Joe Farrell -1.8 De Rasher Counter -0.5 C/F +23.69 IP 1.9 |
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-9.35 / 0 IP
Doctor Duffy -1 Solo -2 Thatsy -1 Stolen Silver -0.5 Monkfish +6.5 Dylrow -1 Delta Work -1 Law Of Gold -1 Paloma Blue -1 Flash The Steel-0.5 Captain Drake -1 -12.85 / 0 IP |
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+45.57
c glen/a a char -1 cdl / gdj / gd -1 sol g/m m me -1 pet pow /pot legend -1.5 +41.07 / 0 IP |
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1410 Jaime Somers 0.4pts EW 100’s (Various)
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1510
Dallas Des Pictons 0.9 pts 10’s Emily Moon 0.8pts 14’s Both Win Various |
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Ulster National - It’s All Guesswork 2.7pt win 10’s (Boyles)
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Ulster National - General Principle 0.9pts win 12’s (Various)
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Morning all
Fab.......Tremendous place hit with JS,in a 7 grand race,sort of sums the season up,well done anyway. Extraordinary times across the country,with darker times forecast for the weeks ahead. Quite how racing can go ahead anywhere is beyond me,a safe society must come first. Mid fifties,self employed,mrs noc is a trained nurse,I await the dreaded letter being "At Risk". Our own issues are nothing compared to some people. My heart goes out to those forced into situations way beyond their control,they deserve any help required. We have two hard working children,both mid twenties,we worry as all parents do, how will they cope? How do any of us prepare to self isolate for 12 weeks plus ? Does that Isolated form study,over many years,at ridiculous hours,help in any small way ? Enough doom and gloom. It,s been a blast this end,over a number of seasons. The eternal punting rollercoaster,experienced by all. To everyone that contributes in anyway: May you and your families stay safe and healthy. Too many people to mention from my end,absolute pleasure as always. Regards Noc |
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Same to you noc.
Roll on the inevitable ' start ' of the Flat Season , whenever that may be.??! |
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Will there be a new one guys? Looking to get involved this season
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Stan, I’ll give Noc or CVB their place, as they normally start it. If not I’ll do one this afternoon
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