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unclepuncle
23 Jun 19 10:25
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
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Enable pencilled in here but if we get some sort of summer then fast ground over 10f means she would be vulnerable (and maybe even a non runner).

The first two and fourth from the Prince of Wales are next in the betting but Maybe looks vulnerable and Crsytal Ocean may not run and instead be saved for the King George (as Stoute did with Poets Word last year). Also doubt Sea Of Class will run here.

Then we have the Coolmore 3 year old posse - the Irtish Derby runners surely won't run again so soon, Japan is unlikely to step back in trip (though would likely be favourite if he did) and Circus Maximus won a messy and weak St James Palace. I expect he might turn up but he's not for me.

After that we have the Queen Anne principals and while none of them are sexy they may hold the key. Lord Glitters and Beat The Bank have always looked like a step up in trip would suit and Mustashry is already a CD winner.

However behind them at Ascot having got badly positioned was Barney Roy and he of course was beaten a nostril by Ulysses in the Eclipse a couple of years ago so we know track and trip hold no fears. With Masar surely not going to turn up after his run on Saturday I see no reason why Godolphin won't run in.
At 33/1 I'll throw a few quid on him.

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Replies: 225
By:
elisjohn
When: 23 Jun 19 16:00
telecaster e/w 25/1 ?
By:
elisjohn
When: 25 Jun 19 12:48
sir dragonet not entered for irish derby, could be eclipse bound ?
By:
woodmanchester
When: 25 Jun 19 17:15
Sure I heard he's being rested

Might come back for Arc?
By:
elisjohn
When: 25 Jun 19 17:31
thx wood, i hadnt heard
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Jul 19 07:06
Well Enable is now looking certain to go off odds-on after Frankies upbeat comments yesterday, combined with the excellent form of the Gosden fillies and the lack of opposition. The weather is set fair all week so fast ground looks a certainty unless they over water.
Could easily be less than 8 runners so an antepost e/w bet with 3 places might be a nice play - if only we knew what was running.

Barney Roy was last matched at 100 so presumably he won't be running and fast ground won't suit Lord Glitters so maybe Mustashry is the e/w bet, though he has not been confirmed either so a waiting game it is.

Looks a good shout on Telecaster ej - horses who have been beaten at Epsom have a decent record in the Eclipse - Environment Friend, Compton Admiral, Oratorio, Roaring Lion etc. EF even won the Dante before Epsom like Telecaster.
By:
elisjohn
When: 01 Jul 19 12:10
13 left in,  including  enable , no barney roy
By:
Howellsy
When: 01 Jul 19 17:31
Her prominent racing style should be ideal but I have a nagging doubt about her on good to firm, first time up, on what is a tighter track than is often realised (far bend tends to slow them down a bit, so the out and out 12f gallopers are perhaps disadvantaged). I've always felt the Eclipse suited 8-10f types rather than 10-12 on fast ground.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jul 19 20:27
Magical ran Enable close last season; she's fit; she's 5x bigger in price than Enable. Not value (?), if showing up.
By:
Figgis
When: 03 Jul 19 16:24
As I've said before Enable put up the fastest performance in an Oaks I've seen. In any year she'd have been extremely hard to beat for the rest of the season with the allowances. It was her 4yo level that I'm not impressed with. No matter how good any horse was that I've seen as a 3yo, they have all needed to improve as a 4yo to offset the loss of the weight allowance. Frankel being the exception. He didn't need to improve but still did, the rest had no chance. Enable is no Frankel even at the longer trips. For me, she made no wfa improvement at all but still managed to win the Arc a second time because it was a poor race for the grade and her only capable rival, Cracksman, was moved out of her way.

As an older filly she has never given a fast enough performance to show she is capable of winning a decent running of a race like the Eclipse. Of course it's still possible she could have improved again as a 5yo, a few horses do, but I have to judge her on what I've seen so far. For me, Gosden has made a big mistake in aiming her here and there's a big chance she is going to be found out.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jul 19 17:32
I've never backed Telecaster however, he'd be running over his optimum trip, and his 12/1 price is right too; Enable is 1st time out with ground a slight concern; Magical is 2f short (compensated by value) of her optimum trip, I think; Circus Maximus or Mustashry not for me either.

Magical and Telecaster (both for value); free bet or money back promotion on the day if 2nd to the fav could be an astute bet.
By:
elisjohn
When: 03 Jul 19 18:40
when i posted telecaster few days back it was more of perhaps he,ll run and might have a squek, i honestly think now hes got a massive chance
By:
Charlton2005
When: 03 Jul 19 20:15
3yo cannot win this race.
By:
Hibore
When: 03 Jul 19 20:39
Telecaster could be a steal here......His optimum run style is to go flat out which was obviously not feasible in the Derby and it’s no surprise he bombed out having to take a pull for the first mile. I’m sure I saw something on RUK that his Dante run fractions were brutal so much so that a mile and quarter would be his limit.
Add to that Sandown is a great front runners track. Osin Murphy excels from the front also.
So what what about the opposition? Enable will be a big threat but must be beatable over a trip she’s never won over and is first time up. Evens is a poor price win or lose. Gosden will be happy if she’s in the first 3.
Magical is not a horse I’ve taken to and don’t think the conditions suit her as well as the KG later this month. Again I can see her finishing in first 4 and connections happy enough.
Regal reality doesn’t look good enough on paper but looks like a true 10 furlong performer and will have optimum conditions. I can see him running really well and a big big danger.
Circus will struggle over this trip in such a fast run race. I think they may look for another race now a mile seems his distance.
Mustashry is similar to Circus but not as good....
Can’t have any of the others unless we have 30mm of rain and then Addeybb gets his conditions. He won’t run if firmish surely.

In conclusion I think if Telecaster can bowl along a few lengths clear of Enable and Magical deep into the straight he will be hard to keep out of the frame.....but receiving 7lbs in the race he’s best suited when his rivals aren’t he is a big price at 16/1 or 14/1 EW.

I make him more 6/1 or 7/1 now the opposition and conditions are clearer.
By:
Figgis
When: 03 Jul 19 21:02
Even though I wouldn't back Enable I really don't see the fact that she's first time out here as a negative. Maybe if this was a Gp3 and we knew the race was being used to bring her forward. I have no doubts that, despite what he may say, Gosden will have her primed for this, just as he did Nathaniel when he won it first time out. I actually see it as more of a positive, as Enable will be completely fresh, unlike maybe one or two of the others.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 03 Jul 19 21:20
enable almost a stone better animal than telecaster. I will give up the game if he wins this.
By:
Hibore
When: 03 Jul 19 21:34
Interesting what price Telecaster would have been if missing Derby and coming straight here ? If he was 5/1 for Derby then would be shorter here ?

Enable is obviously the best horse in the race and probably over a stone better than Telecaster over 12 Furlongs. This is 10 Furlongs and she’s got less in hand it would seem the shorter the trip....until we see on Saturday. There are better evens shots on Saturday.
By:
Figgis
When: 03 Jul 19 21:42
Enable is obviously the best horse in the race

It all depends on how you define best. She's undoubtedly got the best CV here. I say she definitely isn't the fastest.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 03 Jul 19 21:45
Hibore, agreed I would never back her at evens, just think she finishes in front of Telecaster (as will at least 3 others!)
By:
Hibore
When: 03 Jul 19 21:58
Fair enough. He’s not bomb proof and 14/1.
There are big question marks over most of the field. Last year’s Dante winner did ok the race last year and we are only looking for top 3 Excited
I would suggest watching the Dante again if you are bored.
By:
elisjohn
When: 04 Jul 19 06:03
only one thing i dont agree with you Hilbore, i think that circus has much more of a chance that you give him, he won a poor st jamess, but i reckon 10 furlongs at sandown will be great for him, not sure how you can say will struggle over this trip.
By:
elisjohn
When: 04 Jul 19 06:47
wouldnt surprise me if this gets cut up this morning to under 8 runners, betting suggests on here only around 4/5  def runners
By:
Hibore
When: 04 Jul 19 07:03
Elis, my conclusion was that a truly run mile race brought the best out of him at Ascot. I’m not sure why Aidan is running him here to be honest. There are mile races that he could compete over the next couple of months - who else would he run ?
By:
elisjohn
When: 04 Jul 19 07:06
I personally dont think he will run, we,ll see around 10.00
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jul 19 09:10
At this trip and against these opposition Circus Maximus might not even be placed, I believe; Enable, Telecaster, Magical (at least 2 if not all) will finish infront of him. I understand he won the St James's but it was a very weak one, I firmly believe. Also, he was way down the pecking order at Ballydoyle too.

Because of the anticipated ground, 1st time out and distance I'd oppose Enable; Telecaster and Magical for me as long as the latter stays close to the pacesetter/s eg lying no further than 3rd throughout. On this good/fast ground those infront with 1.5f to go will be very hard to peg back, I believe.

A good pointer for the King George and Arc.
By:
elisjohn
When: 04 Jul 19 09:44
dead 8 go, enable, magical,regal, mustashry, telecaster, zabeel, danceteria , hunting horn,Get on telecaster 16/1 365 now eway
By:
Hibore
When: 04 Jul 19 11:40
Wow, that is value.
There’s a piece in the Sun today from Hughie. Hopes the horse will show its York form which puts him in the mix.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jul 19 12:07
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/coral-eclipse-confirmed-runners-and-riders-superstar-enable-faces-seven-rivals/388689

The Aidan O'Brien-trained Magical will have the benefit of race fitness having ran four times this season, most recently when second to Crystal Ocean in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot

Funny how some people see this as a benefit when I see it as very much a negative.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 04 Jul 19 12:55
Is this the same Telecaster being put up that was unsighted in the Epsom Derby?
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 04 Jul 19 14:12
Can`t entertain Telecaster against proven Gp1 performers. Will be an interesting tactical race with plenty of pace on with Enable well up there and kicking for home early in the straight. Magical will be having her 5th race of the season but seems to take her racing well. I expect Enable to win but will be backing Magical each way.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jul 19 16:53
I firmly believe Telecaster is no Gp 1 truly run 12f horse, and the Dante was too close to the Derby; a case of the heart ruling the head for connections. Another Saxon Warrior, Hazapour, Too Darn Hot and Medhmoon - there will be more in the future - where aspiration of becoming a Derby winner supercede reality.

But Telecaster at 16/1 with 365 surely must be value personified.
By:
Howellsy
When: 04 Jul 19 21:29
I love nothing better than laying odds on favs. Enable is having her first run in many months, and she's stepping back in trip at a track which doesn't especially favour 12f specialists at 10f if the ground is fast, which it will be - another factor which isn't an obvious positive. Like Figgis, I don't think she was quite as good as the hype suggests last year, and I also feel this is a dodgy bit of placement by a trainer with 'previous' this season. However, even at 1.9ish, you still need horses running for you, and I'm struggling to see this race as a lay. We have to assume the mare is fit enough to run somewhere near her best, and of the remainder, only Magical has the proven form at this trip to challenge her. I am not as keen as Figgis to oppose horses due to fatigue but this comes pretty soon after what must have been a hard race at Ascot, and Enable has more class than her. Magical simply isn't a big enough price for me. Regal Reality is being thrown into the deep end sooner than ideal. Unexposed over 10f, he has loads of potential but I didn't like the way he hung under pressure first time out. That might have been the trip or first-time-out tiredness talking, but he's no great price for a colt with lots to prove. If there is value in the race, it would have to be Mustashry for me. I'm not sure he'll be thriving at the **** end of a gruelling 10 furlongs, but he's a grinder and I think this track on fast ground will be ideal for him. I was a touch disappointed at Ascot and maybe that's as good as he is, but I felt he was asked to travel and quicken there, which is not his bag. He might just be staying on as others tire here. I don't think Telecaster's ready for this, much as I'd like to see him do well, and Zabeel Prince has too much to prove at the trip. Win bet Mustashry, and forecast Enable to beat him.
By:
Howellsy
When: 04 Jul 19 21:30
cigarette, anyone?
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jul 19 21:38
Enable has more class than her

I disagree with that Howellsy. I'm sure that Magical has progressed past Enable now, although we don't really know if Enable has improved again until she comes out.
By:
Howellsy
When: 04 Jul 19 21:56
Figgis, Enable travelled all over Magical in America and was always holding her in the straight. And that was after winning the arc off a rushed prep, although in fairness, Magical had won the 12f at Ascot even more recently. I didn't like the way Magical travelled in the POW, niggled away on the turn as CO travelled sweetly into the straight. I don't have Magical improving this year. But I suppose if she repeats the POW form literally and Enable is a few pounds below her best, then Magical beats her. I just don't think that's the value call. Another factor I should have mentioned is the draw. It might not be an issue after 100 yards, but you'd never choose to be 8 of 8. Magical will probably get a slightly better position early, with Hunting Horn and Telecaster going forward and these two presumably in 3rd and 4th, but with Moore perhaps keeping Dettori wide? Silly to try to micro analyse it in advance with so many variables, and since there are 4 natural hold up types, there may well be no problems in getting a position, so it shouldn't be decisive.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jul 19 22:14
Howellsy, yes she beat Magical fair and square in America as most thought she would. I couldn't have backed Magical to beat her that day but I did say she wouldn't be far behind her unless Enable improved on her Arc form, which she didn't and that's exactly how it panned out. I disagree that Enable's prep affected her negatively at all. She had a nice easy training gallop at Kempton on very favourable weight terms against Crystal Ocean who was already spent for the season. The Arc she won was crap so really shouldn't have taken much out of her. On the other hand Magical went to America only 2 weeks after a hard race at Ascot. You only need to see how far Magical beat Waldgeist at Ascot compared to Enable against him in the Arc. I admit that collateral form lines can be dubious but on this occasion it is also backed up firmly by the times.

If Enable had run in the POW I strongly believe she'd have been comfortably beaten and finished close to Waldgeist, who has slightly improved this year. It's a pity, for me at least, that Magical wasn't held back for this instead of running in the POW, as I would've been lumping on her here. Unfortunately I now have to rely on a less confident plan B Wink
By:
Middle_Of_March
When: 05 Jul 19 04:04
‘I'm sure that Magical has progressed past Enable now‘

Figgis - That’s a baseless claim if ever I’ve seen one. Enable is a 7 time Group 1 winner and despite having a stuttering season won her second Arc last year and then beat Magical again afterwards in the Breeders Cup. Three wins over Flag of Honour and a fair second to Crystal Ocean (another horse Enable best last season) and suddenly she’s progressed past Enable? Come on - that is somewhat crazy talk.
By:
Hibore
When: 05 Jul 19 05:50
I have big doubts you’ll get conclusive proof of anything on Saturday. Every runner has big negatives they will need to overcome.
Enable is running over a distance that she will probably never run over again EVER and was beaten on her only attempt. Her class may see her through as these aren’t world beaters but evens isn’t really much value.
I’m just trying to think how the race might be run and who might get conditions in their favour. The poster who said Enable would kick clear coming into the straight is thinking of a different race to me Crazy if she is in front of Hunting Horn or Telecaster then she’ll be running faster than blue point.
This is a great opportunity for Telecaster, Royal, Mustashry or even Zabeel to win a big one. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if you take a step back and look at race objectively.
By:
elisjohn
When: 05 Jul 19 06:51
for me enable needed all of that 12furlongs to beat magical in america, though enable did have to come much wider there. if that race was over 10f reckon magical would have won.
By:
Figgis
When: 05 Jul 19 08:55
a fair second to Crystal Ocean

Yes, CO horse who has just clocked a time as good as Cirrus Des Aigles over 10f, which is about 13lbs more than anything Enable has ever done without the weight allowance. As I said after Treve won her first Arc, these mid summer 10f events often take a lot more winning (speed) than an end of season Arc. Treve was found out and she was a 3lbs better winner of the Arc, in my view.
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