King George Chase (26th Dec Kempton)

Good write up Impossible but doubt Might Bite will be "back to his best" to go very close. Something looked badly amiss on seasonal debut

Hope I'm wrong

Fair summary. Everything looks different after Haydock but until we know what the going will be and which Irish challengers will run, it is hard to be confident of anything. Your analysis does not even mention the favourite for the Gold Cup. Have connections ruled out running Presenting Percy? My preference at the moment would be a split stake between Politologue and Thistlecrack. If the 2016 Thistlecrack turned up he would be a short price.

Nicholls has a habit of trying to step up in trip horses in this race - but Politologue does not look at all like a genuine 3m chaser to me. Native River has alot to prove going right handed on sharper track, same applies to BDM. Might Bite - is you take out last run would be 6/4 for this. So it depends do you forgive him that and now you get 4/1 (is sure to be shorter on day imo) Waiting P tick alot of boxes as he has tactical pace, good jumper proven over trip, ground and right handed tracks - but negative is it hasnt had a prep run - so it depends whether you think it can run. Dont think there is anything else that can win. I think a win only on Might Bite is fairly good bet at 4/1 imo - of course the last run is factored into its price - but its a fair price imo

racing, I agree that MB is big at 4/1 if he returns to last years form which is entirely possible but I would prefer to take 7/4 after he has jumped the first 2 fences and shown no affect from Haydock. I would not touch him on heavy though.

Groundhog day ..... Top Notch is the horse I would back to win , but for the second year he won't turn up as he could thwart the million pound bonus .

I would not go near Might Bite who has finished his last races akin to One Man on a bad day.

Presenting Percy has been scratched for the John Durkan this weekend due to the ground; next nominated race will be the Savills Chase over 3m at Leopardstown on 28th.

Yak today is Might Bite’s poor display at Haydock is due to him not getting into a rhythm. Yeah right, a comment sponsored by bookmakers?

I think the fences caused him a bit of concern, but I think he was far from being race fit; made ground and joined front rank, but dropped back quickly 2 fences out.

I'm hoping for a much better run something like his run in the Gold Cup which he definitely improved from his King George run, I believe. If so, he can win this again.

interestingly a lot of the fancies are ( nebulous ) political pun intended ,  regarding there chance . who is actually full blooded committed ? i think the race has no horses that are layed out for this . just like a southwell race, it will be the whos in form today , rather than analysing lengths / pounds that will dictate the winner

apologies for my bumbling sherbert induced comments below . what i was getting at was i feel that very few horses are actually targeting this race .even though might bite should be suited by the test i sense redemption at cheltenham is his target  imo thistlecrack will be at the very best level hes able to attain and i think that might well be good enough . best of luck and a happy Christmas  .

I don't like backing horses without a prep for a group/ grade 1, but Waiting Patiently is potentially the next superstar of the 3 mile. Goes very well fresh and is unbeaten as a chaser. In all honesty, this is not a good race...

Might Bite is more likely to be pulled up or finish unplaced.
Native River and Bristol De Mai will not like the course...BDM and Might Bite will proberley try and kill each other from the off.
Thistlecrack is not the horse he was and was flattered to get so close to BDM at Haydock
Politologue is held by Waiting Patiently and looks more Ryanair to me

The rest don't look upto it, though Clans des Obeaux ran his best race lto at Haydock and could run on into a place, though, imo, he'd be better suited in the gold cup with a greater emphasis on stamina.

No Presenting Percy, just one unknown with talent and potential but 1st time out though in Waiting Patiently who has yet to do this distance. This could be his optimum distance rather than the Gold Cup, and uphill finish; also tend to hang on the run-in.

The well-being of Might Bite has to be taken on trust, but his trainer has been pleased with him; 2nd in the Gold Cup last year was best form in public, and could have improved from last year's renewal; at best 2/1 if he'd not gone to Haydock when he looked under-cooked.

A good race in prospect with the majority of the Gold Cup contenders in the field. An further softening of the ground would play into the hands of Native River, I reckon.

coneygree will jump these into submission

Shattered Love: 1st preference is the Savills Chase unless the expected rain in Ireland does not materialise; the inclusion here is the insurance, just in case.

i dont rate waiting patiently imo hes been campaigned very well and maybe he can steal this to . he has beaten top notch names in top notch , cue card and frodon , but , that was in the middle of february when the non cripples were prepping for chelts and he was heavily backed having his first run in a year and not been sound since

The paper states the tongue tie has led to him finishing last two race off strongly.

I'm starting to think Conygree is a decent ew punt at 33/1 for this. I've just re-watched his last run, he did well giving weight away on ground faster than he prefers, and he stayed on well after tiring; there must be every chance he will be better for this run. Whether he is still good enough is the question but he's lightly raced given his fragility (and not unheard of for an 11yo to win this). Has ran well at the course before, an impressive novice chase performance. I think he could be worth an ew punt at the price and any rain would enhance his chances.

When I look at the others I just come up with reasons not to bet them.

Native River, this surely is not his course and I think he will get tapped for speed as was the case last year, he's a thorough stayer and his best performances are over further, on diferent courses.

Might Bite, he is awful value currently after his last run. I think the key to this horse is the ground, his very best is on g/s or good, so that makes his Haydock run all the more disapointing, maybe he is not as good as we think? He only just beat 151 rated Double Shuffle in this last year. He could bounce back, but not at the price for me.

BDM, is a bit harder to rule out, there's every chance he has progressed since last season, he's only 7 and it's worth remembering last year his season was interupted when he was given a wind op before returning and running OK at Aintree. His run in last years renewal is the big negative though, it might not be his course.

Politilogue, plenty going for him, still young and progressive, but untried at the trip. By the same sire as Don Poli and other stayers, so there's stamina in his breeding, but he is also related to plenty who were best at shorter than 3m. Who knows, it's all about whether his price is tempting to find out, it isn't for me.

Waiting Paitently, similar to Politilogue he is untried at the trip, by Fleminsfirth who has sired plenty of top stayers so I'd be more confident of this one staying the trip but again, we are guessing. He'll be making his seasonal debut which must be more of a concern; I can't recall this ever being done before, maybe someone can? It's a big ask but the horse has won plenty races fresh (some might argue he is best fresh), he's unbeaten, rated 170 and still progressing? Has the measure of Politilogue. I really hope the ground is soft enough for the trainer to let him run, he is the horse I am most looking forward to seeing, he coud still be anything.

CDO, is progressing steadily, but he gets beat everytime in this grade, not sure what will be diferent this time.

Thistlecrack, I'm in two minds what to make of this previous winner just now, some view his comeback as positive and I can see that but I'm not convinced, my gut tells me he is not as good as he was. It's 2 years since he won and his price is pretty skinny at 7/1.

Shattered Love, will consider if turing up.

I really hope they all turn up as it's a fascinating renewal with the potential to be a cracker. I do think the ground will play a major part in the outcome, currently it is g/s with not a lot of rain scheduled. I might just hang fire for now.

gl

I did yes. It's a fair point on NR and his price, it could look stupid afterwards. gl

If so, let's hope Waiting Patiently wins to pep up his trainer if Might Bite or Native River does not.

question marks  about the whole field and a race i will be having an interest in , but because of the uncertainty  small stakes , of the lot native river has less to prove and looks the best bet at the prices  how he can be ,decent run last time and should get a decent stamina test with coneygree mite bite and bdm  also being at the head of affairs which should expose any doubtfull stayers . at the odds i will also have a small bet win and place on coneygree at around 40s on here .so my 2 are native river win  and coneygree win and place