Horse Antepost
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04 Dec 18
19:59
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
The main protagonists are Might Bite (7/2 fav, reigning champion), Waiting Patiently (6/1), Native River (8/1 Gold Cup winner), Bristol De Mai (8/1 Betfair Chase victor), Politologue (8/1) and Thislecrack (T) (9/1); Bellshill (B), Footpad (F), Road To Respect (RTR), etc.
Might Bite (MB) ran a bad race in the Betfair Chase and finished last (new fences and fitness perhaps); Waiting Patiently (WP) (1st outing here and over 3m); Native River (NR) (2nd in the Betfair Chase); Bristol De Mai (BDM) (Betfair Chase victor); Politologue (P) (trying 3m 1st time).
All things being equal, two definites are MB who needs to improve from his Betfair run (Hendo's charges are running much better now) to triumph again, and BDM with £1m bonus carrot; WP, P, T and NR (T and NR/same trainer) are down to run too but the last mentioned is better suited running in Ireland. I think B, F and RTR will remain in Ireland
I think MB will go very close if back to his best. Similarly, BDM if reproducing his Betfair Chase form and not just a Haydock specialist - he was beaten here last season; NR could do with a more testing and longer trip; T (4th last year) needs to jump consistently better to win; P needs to improve, and stays 3m
Might Bite (MB) ran a bad race in the Betfair Chase and finished last (new fences and fitness perhaps); Waiting Patiently (WP) (1st outing here and over 3m); Native River (NR) (2nd in the Betfair Chase); Bristol De Mai (BDM) (Betfair Chase victor); Politologue (P) (trying 3m 1st time).
All things being equal, two definites are MB who needs to improve from his Betfair run (Hendo's charges are running much better now) to triumph again, and BDM with £1m bonus carrot; WP, P, T and NR (T and NR/same trainer) are down to run too but the last mentioned is better suited running in Ireland. I think B, F and RTR will remain in Ireland
I think MB will go very close if back to his best. Similarly, BDM if reproducing his Betfair Chase form and not just a Haydock specialist - he was beaten here last season; NR could do with a more testing and longer trip; T (4th last year) needs to jump consistently better to win; P needs to improve, and stays 3m
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Good write up Impossible but doubt Might Bite will be "back to his best" to go very close. Something looked badly amiss on seasonal debut
Hope I'm wrong
Hope I'm wrong
He could not run any worse, surely. I'm hopeful, just like to hear a little bit more about his "education" with the horse psychotherapist whose name I've forgotten. And let's hope he gets there in the pinkest of health.
Fair summary. Everything looks different after Haydock but until we know what the going will be and which Irish challengers will run, it is hard to be confident of anything. Your analysis does not even mention the favourite for the Gold Cup. Have connections ruled out running Presenting Percy? My preference at the moment would be a split stake between Politologue and Thistlecrack. If the 2016 Thistlecrack turned up he would be a short price.
I think Presenting Percy is more likely for the John Durkan over 20f at Punchestown on 9th Dec - he's not in the betting here or elsewhere. Agree somewhat with Thistlecrack if he improves majorly in the jumping department. I'd side with Politologue over Thistlecrack assuming he stays.
Nicholls has a habit of trying to step up in trip horses in this race - but Politologue does not look at all like a genuine 3m chaser to me. Native River has alot to prove going right handed on sharper track, same applies to BDM. Might Bite - is you take out last run would be 6/4 for this. So it depends do you forgive him that and now you get 4/1 (is sure to be shorter on day imo) Waiting P tick alot of boxes as he has tactical pace, good jumper proven over trip, ground and right handed tracks - but negative is it hasnt had a prep run - so it depends whether you think it can run. Dont think there is anything else that can win. I think a win only on Might Bite is fairly good bet at 4/1 imo - of course the last run is factored into its price - but its a fair price imo
Fair comment and if he is not even listed in the market, nobody thinks it will run at Kempton but if it is entered it can run so bear that in mind before backing anything else. Mullins does not have a monopoly on changing his mind.
racing, I agree that MB is big at 4/1 if he returns to last years form which is entirely possible but I would prefer to take 7/4 after he has jumped the first 2 fences and shown no affect from Haydock. I would not touch him on heavy though.
think BDM and NR will try and lead - Both jump left handed and will just set up race for something that gets rail and just sits off pace
Groundhog day ..... Top Notch is the horse I would back to win , but for the second year he won't turn up as he could thwart the million pound bonus .
I would not go near Might Bite who has finished his last races akin to One Man on a bad day.
I would not go near Might Bite who has finished his last races akin to One Man on a bad day.
Presenting Percy has been scratched for the John Durkan this weekend due to the ground; next nominated race will be the Savills Chase over 3m at Leopardstown on 28th.
i reckon they got on their knees to persuade sceau royals connections to run given the turnout for the tingle creek/going . i would like him for this race . flabberghasted hes not in it , i guess politics etc . imo i think it would be right up his street . bristol is unsuited by the speedy track , but , top notch is very similar so he should go well though i,m not a fan of him going there fto
Yak today is Might Bite’s poor display at Haydock is due to him not getting into a rhythm. Yeah right, a comment sponsored by bookmakers?
Think it was more than not getting into a rhythm, Auto
Needs to improve big time and although something's got to win it, question marks hanging over the others
...too many ifs and buts for my liking
Needs to improve big time and although something's got to win it, question marks hanging over the others
...too many ifs and buts for my liking
I think the fences caused him a bit of concern, but I think he was far from being race fit; made ground and joined front rank, but dropped back quickly 2 fences out.
I'm hoping for a much better run something like his run in the Gold Cup which he definitely improved from his King George run, I believe. If so, he can win this again.
I'm hoping for a much better run something like his run in the Gold Cup which he definitely improved from his King George run, I believe. If so, he can win this again.
With N T-D in such blinding form. Bristol de Mai is starting to look tempting.
interestingly a lot of the fancies are ( nebulous ) political pun intended , regarding there chance . who is actually full blooded committed ? i think the race has no horses that are layed out for this . just like a southwell race, it will be the whos in form today , rather than analysing lengths / pounds that will dictate the winner
the one whom seems to tick all the boxes might bite is a hooligan and altough i think the money is right for him . comments lto he looks a million dollars etc so he comes on and wins easy . only thistlecrack can beat him imo but your asking for a rumble in the jungle , however , i do think tizzs know he cant win a gold cup no more and ths is it for thistlecrack i would suggest those two will fight it out / i will go for thistlecrack at a price
apologies for my bumbling sherbert induced comments below . what i was getting at was i feel that very few horses are actually targeting this race .even though might bite should be suited by the test i sense redemption at cheltenham is his target imo thistlecrack will be at the very best level hes able to attain and i think that might well be good enough . best of luck and a happy Christmas .
You could be right but if Might Bite was mine, this would be the target as I can't see him facing that hill after 3.25 miles.
I don't like backing horses without a prep for a group/ grade 1, but Waiting Patiently is potentially the next superstar of the 3 mile. Goes very well fresh and is unbeaten as a chaser. In all honesty, this is not a good race...
Might Bite is more likely to be pulled up or finish unplaced.
Native River and Bristol De Mai will not like the course...BDM and Might Bite will proberley try and kill each other from the off.
Thistlecrack is not the horse he was and was flattered to get so close to BDM at Haydock
Politologue is held by Waiting Patiently and looks more Ryanair to me
The rest don't look upto it, though Clans des Obeaux ran his best race lto at Haydock and could run on into a place, though, imo, he'd be better suited in the gold cup with a greater emphasis on stamina.
Might Bite is more likely to be pulled up or finish unplaced.
Native River and Bristol De Mai will not like the course...BDM and Might Bite will proberley try and kill each other from the off.
Thistlecrack is not the horse he was and was flattered to get so close to BDM at Haydock
Politologue is held by Waiting Patiently and looks more Ryanair to me
The rest don't look upto it, though Clans des Obeaux ran his best race lto at Haydock and could run on into a place, though, imo, he'd be better suited in the gold cup with a greater emphasis on stamina.
Might Bite 11/4
Waiting Patiently 5/1
Politologue 11/2
I had to take a second look .......and a third.
Arguably 3 horses with big question marks, head the market for the boxing day showpiece.
On the betting alone......just who actualy thinks Might Bite looks the likeliest winner?
Remember every market initially is an opinion,in this case I think it is wrong.
Plenty written on MB and how he might be better on decent ground,and flatter tracks.
His recent form suggests the complete opposite.His victory here last season,and a fine 2nd in the Gold Cup,came on ground described as soft,Aintree was gd/sft.
Could it be he has lost a yard of pace,that the slower ground allows him to lay up with the leaders,just as he did in his younger days.If that is the case,he will need soft in the going description come the 26th,more than might be perceived.
Both of Hendersons other big guns have come out first time up and been superb,yet some are making excuses for this lads Haydock flop,where in effect he was tailed off.
As for the next two in the market,this trip at championship pace surely has to be guesswork for both.
All 3 have their chance,as a punter it has to be about perceived value against that chance.
There is absolutely nothing in those 3 prices that strike me as value, this far out.
Waiting Patiently 5/1
Politologue 11/2
I had to take a second look .......and a third.
Arguably 3 horses with big question marks, head the market for the boxing day showpiece.
On the betting alone......just who actualy thinks Might Bite looks the likeliest winner?
Remember every market initially is an opinion,in this case I think it is wrong.
Plenty written on MB and how he might be better on decent ground,and flatter tracks.
His recent form suggests the complete opposite.His victory here last season,and a fine 2nd in the Gold Cup,came on ground described as soft,Aintree was gd/sft.
Could it be he has lost a yard of pace,that the slower ground allows him to lay up with the leaders,just as he did in his younger days.If that is the case,he will need soft in the going description come the 26th,more than might be perceived.
Both of Hendersons other big guns have come out first time up and been superb,yet some are making excuses for this lads Haydock flop,where in effect he was tailed off.
As for the next two in the market,this trip at championship pace surely has to be guesswork for both.
All 3 have their chance,as a punter it has to be about perceived value against that chance.
There is absolutely nothing in those 3 prices that strike me as value, this far out.
No Presenting Percy, just one unknown with talent and potential but 1st time out though in Waiting Patiently who has yet to do this distance. This could be his optimum distance rather than the Gold Cup, and uphill finish; also tend to hang on the run-in.
The well-being of Might Bite has to be taken on trust, but his trainer has been pleased with him; 2nd in the Gold Cup last year was best form in public, and could have improved from last year's renewal; at best 2/1 if he'd not gone to Haydock when he looked under-cooked.
A good race in prospect with the majority of the Gold Cup contenders in the field. An further softening of the ground would play into the hands of Native River, I reckon.
The well-being of Might Bite has to be taken on trust, but his trainer has been pleased with him; 2nd in the Gold Cup last year was best form in public, and could have improved from last year's renewal; at best 2/1 if he'd not gone to Haydock when he looked under-cooked.
A good race in prospect with the majority of the Gold Cup contenders in the field. An further softening of the ground would play into the hands of Native River, I reckon.
What a familiar set of combatants.
The first four home last year , five of the eight runners last year declared.
Might Bite ---- who knows which version turns up this time , I won't be backing him.
Double Shuffle --- backed him last year e.w at big prices , think that was his chance.
Bristol De Mai ---- I think this track is far too fast for me , his jumping is not good at a faster pace.
Thistlecrack ---- Struggled with the fences at Haydock but kept on , I am not convinced one bit by the form of that race.
Native River ----- Reminds me of Burrough Hill Lad , he could run well at a course that should not be his type.
Tea For Two------ They should be aiming this fellow at the Grand National now , I think he would have a great chance of making history.
Coneygree----- First one crossed off my list.
Waiting Patiently -----and they certainly have been patient , some achievement if he wins first time and over the trip .....He will have to be Best Mate to do it ...maybe he is.
Politologue---- one of my 2 ap bets ,His win over Charbel looks even better now . Mr Hales will be celebrating his second grey winner of this race imo.
Shattered Love ----my other ap bet , stayed on strongly behind Min over 20 furlongs , great e/w bet .....if turning up.
Clan Des Obeaux ---Respectable run in the Betfair ,this will suit him better .
1 Politologue
2 Native River
3 Shattered Love
The first four home last year , five of the eight runners last year declared.
Might Bite ---- who knows which version turns up this time , I won't be backing him.
Double Shuffle --- backed him last year e.w at big prices , think that was his chance.
Bristol De Mai ---- I think this track is far too fast for me , his jumping is not good at a faster pace.
Thistlecrack ---- Struggled with the fences at Haydock but kept on , I am not convinced one bit by the form of that race.
Native River ----- Reminds me of Burrough Hill Lad , he could run well at a course that should not be his type.
Tea For Two------ They should be aiming this fellow at the Grand National now , I think he would have a great chance of making history.
Coneygree----- First one crossed off my list.
Waiting Patiently -----and they certainly have been patient , some achievement if he wins first time and over the trip .....He will have to be Best Mate to do it ...maybe he is.
Politologue---- one of my 2 ap bets ,His win over Charbel looks even better now . Mr Hales will be celebrating his second grey winner of this race imo.
Shattered Love ----my other ap bet , stayed on strongly behind Min over 20 furlongs , great e/w bet .....if turning up.
Clan Des Obeaux ---Respectable run in the Betfair ,this will suit him better .
1 Politologue
2 Native River
3 Shattered Love
whats the chances of shattered love turning up ? anything from elliott ?
Shattered Love: 1st preference is the Savills Chase unless the expected rain in Ireland does not materialise; the inclusion here is the insurance, just in case.
i dont rate waiting patiently imo hes been campaigned very well and maybe he can steal this to . he has beaten top notch names in top notch , cue card and frodon , but , that was in the middle of february when the non cripples were prepping for chelts and he was heavily backed having his first run in a year and not been sound since
I don't get it with Politologue he didnt get 3m 2 year I go why would he now
The paper states the tongue tie has led to him finishing last two race off strongly.
the race I watched it looked like he barley got the 2 and half at ascot
he certainly didnt get the 2m 5 races he ran in a few years ago
does tongue ties make them stay then
probably hack in now but thats my thoughts
he certainly didnt get the 2m 5 races he ran in a few years ago
does tongue ties make them stay then
probably hack in now but thats my thoughts
I'm starting to think Conygree is a decent ew punt at 33/1 for this. I've just re-watched his last run, he did well giving weight away on ground faster than he prefers, and he stayed on well after tiring; there must be every chance he will be better for this run. Whether he is still good enough is the question but he's lightly raced given his fragility (and not unheard of for an 11yo to win this). Has ran well at the course before, an impressive novice chase performance. I think he could be worth an ew punt at the price and any rain would enhance his chances.
When I look at the others I just come up with reasons not to bet them.
Native River, this surely is not his course and I think he will get tapped for speed as was the case last year, he's a thorough stayer and his best performances are over further, on diferent courses.
Might Bite, he is awful value currently after his last run. I think the key to this horse is the ground, his very best is on g/s or good, so that makes his Haydock run all the more disapointing, maybe he is not as good as we think? He only just beat 151 rated Double Shuffle in this last year. He could bounce back, but not at the price for me.
BDM, is a bit harder to rule out, there's every chance he has progressed since last season, he's only 7 and it's worth remembering last year his season was interupted when he was given a wind op before returning and running OK at Aintree. His run in last years renewal is the big negative though, it might not be his course.
Politilogue, plenty going for him, still young and progressive, but untried at the trip. By the same sire as Don Poli and other stayers, so there's stamina in his breeding, but he is also related to plenty who were best at shorter than 3m. Who knows, it's all about whether his price is tempting to find out, it isn't for me.
Waiting Paitently, similar to Politilogue he is untried at the trip, by Fleminsfirth who has sired plenty of top stayers so I'd be more confident of this one staying the trip but again, we are guessing. He'll be making his seasonal debut which must be more of a concern; I can't recall this ever being done before, maybe someone can? It's a big ask but the horse has won plenty races fresh (some might argue he is best fresh), he's unbeaten, rated 170 and still progressing? Has the measure of Politilogue. I really hope the ground is soft enough for the trainer to let him run, he is the horse I am most looking forward to seeing, he coud still be anything.
CDO, is progressing steadily, but he gets beat everytime in this grade, not sure what will be diferent this time.
Thistlecrack, I'm in two minds what to make of this previous winner just now, some view his comeback as positive and I can see that but I'm not convinced, my gut tells me he is not as good as he was. It's 2 years since he won and his price is pretty skinny at 7/1.
Shattered Love, will consider if turing up.
I really hope they all turn up as it's a fascinating renewal with the potential to be a cracker. I do think the ground will play a major part in the outcome, currently it is g/s with not a lot of rain scheduled. I might just hang fire for now.
gl
When I look at the others I just come up with reasons not to bet them.
Native River, this surely is not his course and I think he will get tapped for speed as was the case last year, he's a thorough stayer and his best performances are over further, on diferent courses.
Might Bite, he is awful value currently after his last run. I think the key to this horse is the ground, his very best is on g/s or good, so that makes his Haydock run all the more disapointing, maybe he is not as good as we think? He only just beat 151 rated Double Shuffle in this last year. He could bounce back, but not at the price for me.
BDM, is a bit harder to rule out, there's every chance he has progressed since last season, he's only 7 and it's worth remembering last year his season was interupted when he was given a wind op before returning and running OK at Aintree. His run in last years renewal is the big negative though, it might not be his course.
Politilogue, plenty going for him, still young and progressive, but untried at the trip. By the same sire as Don Poli and other stayers, so there's stamina in his breeding, but he is also related to plenty who were best at shorter than 3m. Who knows, it's all about whether his price is tempting to find out, it isn't for me.
Waiting Paitently, similar to Politilogue he is untried at the trip, by Fleminsfirth who has sired plenty of top stayers so I'd be more confident of this one staying the trip but again, we are guessing. He'll be making his seasonal debut which must be more of a concern; I can't recall this ever being done before, maybe someone can? It's a big ask but the horse has won plenty races fresh (some might argue he is best fresh), he's unbeaten, rated 170 and still progressing? Has the measure of Politilogue. I really hope the ground is soft enough for the trainer to let him run, he is the horse I am most looking forward to seeing, he coud still be anything.
CDO, is progressing steadily, but he gets beat everytime in this grade, not sure what will be diferent this time.
Thistlecrack, I'm in two minds what to make of this previous winner just now, some view his comeback as positive and I can see that but I'm not convinced, my gut tells me he is not as good as he was. It's 2 years since he won and his price is pretty skinny at 7/1.
Shattered Love, will consider if turing up.
I really hope they all turn up as it's a fascinating renewal with the potential to be a cracker. I do think the ground will play a major part in the outcome, currently it is g/s with not a lot of rain scheduled. I might just hang fire for now.
gl
I’m not far from the course and the rain this morning has made my garden very soggy indeed. Any more rain and the going will be soft at least.
G Mac nice write up and agree that Waiting Patiently is very interesting and could be anything.
Native River didn’t run last year as was injured...I think you mean the Feltham in 2016 when he was 3rd to Tea for Two. I would totally ignore that run as he was held up rather than allowed to bowl along. The ground has come more in his favour now and 7/1 is a very big price now for the highest rated horse in the field.
Backing both NR and WP ew.
Good luck all.
G Mac nice write up and agree that Waiting Patiently is very interesting and could be anything.
Native River didn’t run last year as was injured...I think you mean the Feltham in 2016 when he was 3rd to Tea for Two. I would totally ignore that run as he was held up rather than allowed to bowl along. The ground has come more in his favour now and 7/1 is a very big price now for the highest rated horse in the field.
Backing both NR and WP ew.
Good luck all.
I did yes. It's a fair point on NR and his price, it could look stupid afterwards. gl
A few thoughts on the 10 decs. Looking forward to it.
Bristol De Mai - track doesn’t suit him
Clan Des Obeaux - not good enough at this point in time
Coneygree - reasonable run in a handicap latest but four years since his glory days and has been unsound for long periods since
Double Shuffle - being put in his place by Definitly Red getting weight doesn’t inspire confidence for this
Might Bite - but then again might not after appearing legless at the finish on good ground last time. Odds based on last year’s form so not for me at that price.
Native River - admirable horse, solid each way bet but better suited by Gold Cup
Politologue - In form but I see him placing rather than winning
Tea For Two - has been beaten repeatedly by others in the field
Thistlecrack - hasn’t been jumping well enough
Waiting Patiently - won well last February but looked to me like he had a hard race and hasn’t made the track since. Would like to see connections win as some owners have removed horses from the trainer without giving her a chance. I can’t back this at the price first time out but no surprise if he wins.
Bristol De Mai - track doesn’t suit him
Clan Des Obeaux - not good enough at this point in time
Coneygree - reasonable run in a handicap latest but four years since his glory days and has been unsound for long periods since
Double Shuffle - being put in his place by Definitly Red getting weight doesn’t inspire confidence for this
Might Bite - but then again might not after appearing legless at the finish on good ground last time. Odds based on last year’s form so not for me at that price.
Native River - admirable horse, solid each way bet but better suited by Gold Cup
Politologue - In form but I see him placing rather than winning
Tea For Two - has been beaten repeatedly by others in the field
Thistlecrack - hasn’t been jumping well enough
Waiting Patiently - won well last February but looked to me like he had a hard race and hasn’t made the track since. Would like to see connections win as some owners have removed horses from the trainer without giving her a chance. I can’t back this at the price first time out but no surprise if he wins.
If so, let's hope Waiting Patiently wins to pep up his trainer if Might Bite or Native River does not.
I love Waiting Patiently but it is his first run back . When he has won before after a long lay-off only two of his opponents were not doing exactly the same , and they were rags anyway . On Boxing Day he will have top class race fit rivals to contend with and I fear that will be beyond him .
question marks about the whole field and a race i will be having an interest in , but because of the uncertainty small stakes , of the lot native river has less to prove and looks the best bet at the prices how he can be ,decent run last time and should get a decent stamina test with coneygree mite bite and bdm also being at the head of affairs which should expose any doubtfull stayers . at the odds i will also have a small bet win and place on coneygree at around 40s on here .so my 2 are native river win and coneygree win and place
This race looks fascinating on paper,will it live up to the hype ?
Having questioned the principals in the betting earlier,I have chosen just one horse,of the remainder,that has the potential to win,with hopefully some rationale.
Having never backed this horse,the aim is purely to go through his form,from a neutral standpoint,highlighting as a punter what I think his form might be telling me.
Bristol De Mai.........7yr old grey gelding from the Twiston-Davies yard.
Currently 5th choice in the market at 8.8 on betfair to win.
Quite simply,should this horse be favourite?..... based on what we have seen this season.
His demolition of the Betfair field would be the most recent form argument,beating the first two home in last seasons GC,the last two winners of this race,with some ease,only needing minimal assistance after the last to win comfortably.
The time was just outside standard,suggesting a decent gallop,on ground that many feared would be the undoing of the horse, based on past performances.
The other factor,not easily dismissed,was his undoubted liking for Haydock,a course where he has been unbeaten now in 4 attempts.
I think there might be another factor that makes his case even stronger.
Prior to a wind op end January 2018, this horse had run a staggering 18 times in the previous 2 1/2 seasons,arguably at a time when he was still maturing, into the horse we saw at Haydock.
Many of those races were in quick successsion,with minimal recovery time,at a very high level.
Even then,after the wind op,he was still asked to compete at Aintree,back end last season.
Everything about this horse is telling me he is a different animal when fresh.There is no surprise those Haydock victories latterly have come early season,after a decent summer break,even the one in jan 2017 came after a 2 month break.
At the age of 7,going on 8,this horse has run 27 times.
To put that in context,Best Mate had a total of 22 runs in his whole career.
This is not about his trainer,far from it,the question has to be asked though,has someone finally realised just what they might have on their hands ?
His effort here last year was hugely disappointing,or was it ?
Was I the only one that thought he should have been eased down way before at Haydock ?
He comes here with questions to answer,no doubt.
However,if the theory bears any semblance of truth,we may see a very different horse in this renewal.
Not the biggest surprise if he won this on the snaff......or was tailed off.
Just the case for one horse.
Having questioned the principals in the betting earlier,I have chosen just one horse,of the remainder,that has the potential to win,with hopefully some rationale.
Having never backed this horse,the aim is purely to go through his form,from a neutral standpoint,highlighting as a punter what I think his form might be telling me.
Bristol De Mai.........7yr old grey gelding from the Twiston-Davies yard.
Currently 5th choice in the market at 8.8 on betfair to win.
Quite simply,should this horse be favourite?..... based on what we have seen this season.
His demolition of the Betfair field would be the most recent form argument,beating the first two home in last seasons GC,the last two winners of this race,with some ease,only needing minimal assistance after the last to win comfortably.
The time was just outside standard,suggesting a decent gallop,on ground that many feared would be the undoing of the horse, based on past performances.
The other factor,not easily dismissed,was his undoubted liking for Haydock,a course where he has been unbeaten now in 4 attempts.
I think there might be another factor that makes his case even stronger.
Prior to a wind op end January 2018, this horse had run a staggering 18 times in the previous 2 1/2 seasons,arguably at a time when he was still maturing, into the horse we saw at Haydock.
Many of those races were in quick successsion,with minimal recovery time,at a very high level.
Even then,after the wind op,he was still asked to compete at Aintree,back end last season.
Everything about this horse is telling me he is a different animal when fresh.There is no surprise those Haydock victories latterly have come early season,after a decent summer break,even the one in jan 2017 came after a 2 month break.
At the age of 7,going on 8,this horse has run 27 times.
To put that in context,Best Mate had a total of 22 runs in his whole career.
This is not about his trainer,far from it,the question has to be asked though,has someone finally realised just what they might have on their hands ?
His effort here last year was hugely disappointing,or was it ?
Was I the only one that thought he should have been eased down way before at Haydock ?
He comes here with questions to answer,no doubt.
However,if the theory bears any semblance of truth,we may see a very different horse in this renewal.
Not the biggest surprise if he won this on the snaff......or was tailed off.
Just the case for one horse.
Given the stable's past antics would not surprise me at all to see a vastly improved Might Bite
Maybe Henderson has given Barney Clifford instructions on how to prepare the fences so that Might Bite isn't frightened. The Henderson horses are very precious and deserve the best. Have a great Christmas.
INTRUDER !Bearing a gift coming down your chimney ! POLITOLOGUE . Happy xmas
Politologue would be appropriate given the time Brexit had been on most people's lips.
good write up nocturnal ,have not had a bet on anything yet and have changed my mind a few times from other horses but your reasoning is swaying me towards bris de mai , i put him up for the rsa iirc on the chelt forum a few years back but as you say possibly needed time to mature , and at the prices and on this seasons form he looks a bit of value in an open race good luck.
I've gone for Coneygree simply because he seems to be a decent price given the questions he has to answer.
With slight dounts about the front 6 in the betting (trip, course, jumping, well being, way the race will be run etc) I have landed on Double Shuffle e/w 4 places 50/1 as the best bet. Loves the C&D and could have it set up for him to stay on for a place at least.
Morning Foyles........Never listen to the ramblings of a madman 
Not had a wager yet,that was just my thoughts on one horse.
The Clapomemeter of 7.3 at kempton is part of the reason,The Feltham should be a good guide to what we are actually racing on,good safe ground will be fine,anything quicker might see a few nonners,these are the best staying chasers we have this side of the water.
Still struggling to understand this market.......NR and BDM would be at the top of my list.
All things being equal,BDM still stands out for me.Whether we do see a different horse to last year remains open to debate,just as it should be.
If he is fully over any wind problems,and reported gastric Issues,just what can he do coming here fresher than previous seasons,that is the question.
Tactics will play a part,its not only the horse that has question marks around here,leave that one for another day,how many grade 1 jockeys are in the field ?
Clean run race,no excuses,may the best horse win,and of course they all return safely.
BDM win eased down,followed home by the Tizzy pair,Thistlecrack looks a real danger to me.
GL ALL
Not had a wager yet,that was just my thoughts on one horse.
The Clapomemeter of 7.3 at kempton is part of the reason,The Feltham should be a good guide to what we are actually racing on,good safe ground will be fine,anything quicker might see a few nonners,these are the best staying chasers we have this side of the water.
Still struggling to understand this market.......NR and BDM would be at the top of my list.
All things being equal,BDM still stands out for me.Whether we do see a different horse to last year remains open to debate,just as it should be.
If he is fully over any wind problems,and reported gastric Issues,just what can he do coming here fresher than previous seasons,that is the question.
Tactics will play a part,its not only the horse that has question marks around here,leave that one for another day,how many grade 1 jockeys are in the field ?
Clean run race,no excuses,may the best horse win,and of course they all return safely.
BDM win eased down,followed home by the Tizzy pair,Thistlecrack looks a real danger to me.
GL ALL
morning noc ....... good luck! gonna have a few quid on the win around 8s and a decent place bet on here .
Sticking with Might Bite for a 2nd KG. few ££ on here @ 5.0
Sneaky late bet EW Thistlecrack. If he jumps better than last time he must go close.
well we all got that wrong ! small stakes we move on !
One for the bookies. Well done anyone who saw that coming.
Not quite everything wrong.
26 Dec 2018 15:02:29 Kempton Park R5 15:05 Trifecta 14961341 1st Place: 1,2,6,9 2nd Place: 1,2,6,9 3rd Place: 1,2,6,9 24 0.10 2.40 Bet settled 41.63
Having shouted CDO up before the Betfair,as a horse to follow on the A/P thread,thought the ground would be against him today.
Thats the first time I have put up a horse ridden by this jockey for as long as I can remember,and hopefully the last.Nothing about the fall,why would you stay on the outside of a horse that was continually jumping toward your mount ? I should have known better.
Native River remains a real force,right handed tracks are really against him judged on that,just outpaced on ground way too lively,fine effort.
Too early to say how BDM would have fared,he looked out of his comfort zone very early,completely different to Haydock,very frustrating,looked beat prior to the fall to these eyes.
Nothing on the winner,peanuts on the tote,could not have worked out any worse this end
Well done winners.......he was quite superb today,as were the placed horses.
26 Dec 2018 15:02:29 Kempton Park R5 15:05 Trifecta 14961341 1st Place: 1,2,6,9 2nd Place: 1,2,6,9 3rd Place: 1,2,6,9 24 0.10 2.40 Bet settled 41.63
Having shouted CDO up before the Betfair,as a horse to follow on the A/P thread,thought the ground would be against him today.
Thats the first time I have put up a horse ridden by this jockey for as long as I can remember,and hopefully the last.Nothing about the fall,why would you stay on the outside of a horse that was continually jumping toward your mount ? I should have known better.
Native River remains a real force,right handed tracks are really against him judged on that,just outpaced on ground way too lively,fine effort.
Too early to say how BDM would have fared,he looked out of his comfort zone very early,completely different to Haydock,very frustrating,looked beat prior to the fall to these eyes.
Nothing on the winner,peanuts on the tote,could not have worked out any worse this end
Well done winners.......he was quite superb today,as were the placed horses.
Not quite everything wrong.
26 Dec 2018 15:02:29 Kempton Park R5 15:05 Trifecta 14961341 1st Place: 1,2,6,9 2nd Place: 1,2,6,9 3rd Place: 1,2,6,9 24 0.10 2.40 Bet settled 41.63
Having shouted CDO up before the Betfair,as a horse to follow on the A/P thread,thought the ground would be against him today.
Thats the first time I have put up a horse ridden by this jockey for as long as I can remember,and hopefully the last.Nothing about the fall,why would you stay on the outside of a horse that was continually jumping toward your mount ? I should have known better.
Native River remains a real force,right handed tracks are really against him judged on that,just outpaced on ground way too lively,fine effort.
Too early to say how BDM would have fared,he looked out of his comfort zone very early,completely different to Haydock,very frustrating,looked beat prior to the fall to these eyes.
Nothing on the winner,peanuts on the tote,could not have worked out any worse this end
Well done winners.......he was quite superb today,as were the placed horses.
26 Dec 2018 15:02:29 Kempton Park R5 15:05 Trifecta 14961341 1st Place: 1,2,6,9 2nd Place: 1,2,6,9 3rd Place: 1,2,6,9 24 0.10 2.40 Bet settled 41.63
Having shouted CDO up before the Betfair,as a horse to follow on the A/P thread,thought the ground would be against him today.
Thats the first time I have put up a horse ridden by this jockey for as long as I can remember,and hopefully the last.Nothing about the fall,why would you stay on the outside of a horse that was continually jumping toward your mount ? I should have known better.
Native River remains a real force,right handed tracks are really against him judged on that,just outpaced on ground way too lively,fine effort.
Too early to say how BDM would have fared,he looked out of his comfort zone very early,completely different to Haydock,very frustrating,looked beat prior to the fall to these eyes.
Nothing on the winner,peanuts on the tote,could not have worked out any worse this end
Well done winners.......he was quite superb today,as were the placed horses.
Aye Uncle.........Appreciated.
Not often you see a market where you think its way out,thats the annoying bit,not taking advantage when such a scenario arises.
Having watched it back couple times two things strike me.
Theres a point going out on 2nd circuit,as they cross a gravel path,NR begins to drift towards the centre of the field immediately in front of CDO,Cobden realises this in a flash and moves CDO inside NR, a horse that is clearly jumping markedly left handed.Not only that,he takes a pull between the last two fences,ensuring CDO has enough in the tank to reach the line.
Not all winning rides are good,that was an absolute peach from such a young jockey,that will do his confidence the world of good.That will not be lost on PFN,no surprise he is the stable number 1 on that showing.
They may not have won the day,but the Tizzards really do look to be on a big upward curve.
Producing top class horses at their best is no easy task,whilst conditions did not suit NR,Thistlecrack ran a mighty race,getting him back to that level is some training performance.
They should be delighted with that,fine effort,their horses are becoming harder to ignore in these big races,adds a little spice to proceedings,long may that continue.
Not often you see a market where you think its way out,thats the annoying bit,not taking advantage when such a scenario arises.
Having watched it back couple times two things strike me.
Theres a point going out on 2nd circuit,as they cross a gravel path,NR begins to drift towards the centre of the field immediately in front of CDO,Cobden realises this in a flash and moves CDO inside NR, a horse that is clearly jumping markedly left handed.Not only that,he takes a pull between the last two fences,ensuring CDO has enough in the tank to reach the line.
Not all winning rides are good,that was an absolute peach from such a young jockey,that will do his confidence the world of good.That will not be lost on PFN,no surprise he is the stable number 1 on that showing.
They may not have won the day,but the Tizzards really do look to be on a big upward curve.
Producing top class horses at their best is no easy task,whilst conditions did not suit NR,Thistlecrack ran a mighty race,getting him back to that level is some training performance.
They should be delighted with that,fine effort,their horses are becoming harder to ignore in these big races,adds a little spice to proceedings,long may that continue.
Great runs by Thistle and Native but some shockers by some others from Tizzard during the day. I was gutted to see Paddleyourowncanoe won as I usually follow him but went for Coeur Blimey and only found out he was a non after the race.
Well done to Clan Des Obeaux - hes obviously a fine horse with a great future however I'd want to see him backing this performance up before punting him in anymore staying chases. Instead I'll be backing the two fallers next time out as I believe that theres a huge possibility one of them would have won had they stood up ...
I wasn't convinced by the way Bristol de Mai was travelling, didn't look as good as he did at Haydock
Seemed to be going okay to me - its difficult to see on the replay but he seems to have brushed the top of the fence, landed steeply and knuckled on landing. Good that both seem to be none the worse for their experience and live to fight another day ...
Bristol de Mai looks like a snakes and ladders horse to me. If things go his way he's very good. Waiting Patiently very unlucky as the faller slid sideways into him. You have to hand it to PN. He said his horse didn't have to make up much on Haydock form with Thistlecrack but the latter jumped far better so in truth I think CDO came on a lot.
BDM just does not seem to be able to perform to his Haydock capability; he was not up with the pace yesterday, maybe a change of tactic from connections nevertheless, he just was not travelling the way he did at Haydock. My inference is he just cannot perform at Kempton period!
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