Horse Antepost
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It's a long way off but Line Of Duty showed a lot of the attributes required to win a Derby when winning last night's Juvenile Turf - he quickened, battled and stayed. The bare form (a 2.5 length beating of Arthur Kitt) isn't anything extraordinary, but he's progressive and has a great attitude. I'll have an early dip of the toe.
Line Of Duty 0.5pt @ 20/1 (Bet635 are 25/1 if you can get on with them - I can't)
Line Of Duty 0.5pt @ 20/1 (Bet635 are 25/1 if you can get on with them - I can't)
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i liked the run of kick on in the rp trophy , hes certainly not bred to stay , but , he got the mile well as a 2yo and in the top hands . right now he looks close to a roaring lion type profile , but , he isnt quite as classy , so hes one to bear in mind . i think quorto atm hes gotta get there though . both quorts and too d hot are a little speedy , quorts seems more laden with stamina . if it was a slowish ground derby then class may be usurped by stamina and the trials will come into play .i noticed both harzand and golden horn only managed to get out once in their 2yo career so perhaps value may lie in that type of profile
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perhaps something like eagles by day , your selection is very reminiscent of masar
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I think Anthony Van **** has found 8f too pacy, and he's crying out for a mile. I was disappointed he ran in The Dewhurst instead of The Vertem over 8f; America in the Dirt was a non event. He's my Derby horse at the moment, and I'm hoping he'll go for one of the Derby trials in Ireland eg Ballysax or Derrinstown.
Like Gosden I do not think Too Darn Hot is a Derby horse either, 10f at best, and neither is Quorto. |
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shendam and humanitarian are others tankerville ? i dont like but has the profile . plenty to scan through
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you wouldnt want to write off the top two 2yos at present as non stayers , but , you could argue their is no value and look elsewhere ,anyhow , no strong opinions here and look forward to having a look at other suggestions .
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dont think it's a coincidence Too Darn Hot is called Too Darn Hot..be surprised if he runs to his pedigree and dont think they'd have campaigned him how they have if staying 12f was the aim
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I have TDH at prices after the debut over a mile. If it wins the guineas I can't believe they won't give it a go as they can always step back afterwards. One certainly bred for the job is RAKAN and I think this one could well be in the line up after a ballysax/derrinstown prep and 33s seems ok.
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rakan looks good on paper , he took a good thrashing to win lto and he doesnt move fluidly , i dont think he has what it takes personally . he may well come on over the winter ,he doesnt exude class imo
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im gonna spend some time reviewing these 1 race horses over the winter . right now quorto all day . boring and poor odds so i,ll be looking for something .
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I’m a big JAPAN fan for this race, just hoping he debuts in one of AOBs fav derby trial races,
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A small ante post interest on Japan for me at 20/1 (hills) he looks a promising Colt.
But no real strong £££ views atm. Couldn't have the ante fav TDH ?? Don't view him as a 12f Colt ?? |
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unclepuncle 30 Sep 18 17:57 I'm turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so.  Nice performance today, value for more than the winning margin imo and given I can't have the current market leaders TDH or AVD staying the Derby trip the 25/1 is OK with me.Cool Also done a treble with Too Darn Hot for the Guineas @ 7/2 and Ten Sovereigns for the Commonwealth @ 5/1 |
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Big move for Dubai Warrior today.
Trained by Gosden and won it’s only start at Chelmsford last Novembef. |
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Hugh Taylor tipped it in his column yesterday (27 Jan).
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tdh is a defo non stayer . obv the same breeding lines have produced stayers but he wont . so it makes for a lot of value . reminds me of the woodman colt versus high chaps . given that tdh will have a great guineas and then poss a dante . you can keep your money till the day
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I like Anthony Van Dyck. He does not have the pace against top milers, and crying for an up-in-trip post The Guineas, I believe.
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well 123 i would wait as his season may not go to well / injury etc and like i said tdh will go there as a red hot favourite but wont stay "i hope " so there should be a lot of value on the day and before in the trials ? as long as tdh runs the whole field is overpriced
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i think i will want my derby horse just before tdh runs in the dante . that is the time to bet imho
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Can't see TDH running in the Dante between the Guineas and Derby, especially if it wins the Guineas.
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I've discounted TDH. I think he's best between a mile and up to 10f horse similar to Roaring Lion, and more suited to the Dante, Eclipse and Juddemonte; The Derby would be unlikely for him, I believe, and Gosden had eluded to his probable stamina limitation.
The next best form at present is Anthony Van Dyck and Quorto unless O'Brien has another not seen out yet; those that have I've my reservation - his last season ones apart from Saxon Warrior (SW) were not Derby material. And the stamina limitation of SW was profoundly lacking after two derbies, I firmly believe. |
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regardless of permutations their is a consensus that tdh is making the market .
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Anthony Van Dyck lacks stamina on his dam's side is likely to be outstayed in the Derby by stronger stayers. Being by Galileo he can't be totally discounted but he wouldn't interest me at this stage. I haven't seen anything so far that has taken my interest.
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regarding tdh not running in the dante uncle , i think he will . a dante will tell them if theres hope for a derby or to go for a st james. i think the lloyd webbers will surely look at the derby . bearing in mind they dont normally retain colts , i cant see how you can resist looking if he could be derby material .
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mr gosden as astute as he is would not want a dawn approach style derby run , so i think he will have a look to see if he drops the bit
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TDH could turn out to be another Roaring Lion ie max trip 10f; he just has too much pace to stay 12f, I think. I like Anthony Van Dyck; he lacks the pace of a true miler, and possibly needs further than 10f to show his best (I hope). He reminds me a wee bit of Diminuendo who was 3rd in the 1000G and won the Oaks comprehensively.
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well i can agree with you on tdh , but , i think your trying to push a square peg into a round hole in avd as i cannot remember a champion 3yo with a over raced underperforming profile like he has
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[[i]u]THE[/u][/ Derby.
The rest have the prefix.  |
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O'Brien said he might run AVD in a Derby Trial instead of 2000G.
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Broome won the Ballysax easily in the end after looking outpaced 2f out; 8/1 for this. But, what did he beat? I'm not (yet) convinced.
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yep he sure did . well they couldnt even back him into favouritism so its likely this is a poor ballysax . hold onto your hat though , they,ve all matured over the winter so to be running and winning and mature enough to take the race . thats a lot . he doesnt look the one to me , but , he has my respect .
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At 1st I was nonplussed about the victory of Broome in the Ballysax until I realised he was just beaten in the French Lagardere (Gp 1) over an inadequate trip when trying to make all. But no more, I believe, as he'd surely be held up in his future races now; the Ballysax had always been used as a Derby trial in Ireland.
Derrinstown beckons next for Broome, according to AOB. |
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hmm royal marine hasnt exactly held the form up has he . just based on aob comments in the rp regarding the derby he seems to be sweetest on mount everest at the moment
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just looking at the winners over time and its always a top class yard . nuture over nature as i,m sure lesser yards must have had potential derby winners unfortunately they didnt have the staff to develop them . aob jg are the main two . occasionally a shaamit . should horse racing restrict budgets to level the field ?
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Stunning performance by one of obriens last night in the three year old maiden at tipp, wouldnt be a shock
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i dont see the guineas producing the derby winner this year . they are all speedy types so it makes for a interesting trials period and lots of value
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japan looks the best of the middle distance crew imo at the moment . thats based on 2yo form , a winter can change a lot . hopefully theirs a good trials month . love to see a lesser yard winning
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I think more will be known of Broome's Derby potential post his next outing eg gem or bust - impressive last outing, but opposition questionable. Similarly, Anthony Van Dyck AOB's highest-rated 2 yr old colt last season; Japan needs to enhance his victory in the Beresford next time too.
If Broome wins well in his next outing (possibly Derrinstown next sunday) he'll be a short price fav for the Derby. |
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Talking of a lesser yard maybe winning it this year, think Hughie Morrison's Telecaster is a seriously good horse. Was hugely impressive winning at Windsor after running a great race on it's debut against Bangkok, when looking a bit green and being the only horse that gave the winner a semblance of a race there.
Being by New Approach out of a Shirocco mare it looks sure to be even more effective over 12 furlongs. It needs to be supplemented for Epsom but is entered in the Dante and I would love to see it it run well there and take it's chance in the big one. |
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broome certainly spread the field which is a very good sign . he looks very dour , a grinder couldnt rule him out though . telecaster , again won well , but , prolly beat nowt , obv on the up , neither look special to the eye though
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