Epsom Derby 2019

is jack about ? fk i better keep my head down ! dont caption me you biatch ! fk i gotta run ... jacks coming . . not a snowflake  not upset . just take the thread as whole

i can give you hope regarding line of duty . he won the bc  cup turf juvenile . the mare was second in the oaks and third in the coronation stakes , the sire is the best in the business . so he has it all bar a poor run in the dante . if you watch the dante though you wouldnt see any reason why he could upend the form .

Telecasters form profile for a Derby winner would be unusual. All 3 of his runs this year and all over distances around 1m 2f - I can't find other recent Derby winners with this sort of profile (Pour Moi had 3 runs over distances over a mile but the first was as a 2yo with a different trainer). I know the Derby is another 1.5 fulongs further than the Dante but how much more improvement can we expect from a horse at these type of distances ? He needs to come on again significantly to win imo ...

Surfman and Cape of Good Hope the only non runners. Turns out the money laying AVD was not insiders, just punters panic selling as he was still entered in France.

or maybe he just drifted out to the price he should have been in the first place?

the one I keep thinking might be underpriced is circus maximus. the best looking individual in this field. but I also think he might be best over ten furlongs.

O'Brien incredibly strong hand in this. take him on at your peril.

It looks like Surfman and Cape Of Good Hope are the only ones scratched, according to 'billies' nrnb; heading the market is Sir Dragonet.

have just backed broome and AVD. 100 on both.

probably will back them both again on the day.

lewisham ranger
30 May 19 10:49
Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 5,205 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
or maybe he just drifted out to the price he should have been in the first place?

agreed. looking at the jockey bookings he is 4th/5th in the pecking order. should be 20/1 imo

where does it show the jockey bookings for the O'Brien runners? isn't confirmed on the racing post website.

Investec Derby line-up
1 Anthony Van Dyck (stall 7) Seamie Heffernan
2 Bangkok (stall 12) Silvestre de Sousa
3 Broome (stall 8) Donnacha O'Brien
4 Circus Maximus (stall 5) Frankie Dettori
5 Hiroshima (stall 3) Brett Doyle
6 Humanitarian (stall 9) Robert Havlin
7 Japan (stall 11) Wayne Lordan
8 Line Of Duty (stall 1) James Doyle
9 Madhmoon (stall 6) Chris Hayes
10 Norway (stall 10) Jamie Spencer
11 Sir Dragonet (stall 13) Ryan Moore
12 Sovereign (stall 4) Padraig Beggy
13 Telecaster (stall 2) Oisin Murphy
*Aidan O'Brien-trained runners

https://www.racingpost.com/news/countdown-to-epsom/epsom-derby-runners-aidan...

broome wins then

donnacha the chosen one

don't be too hasty, lets see what bungle thinks

hold on tight to your dreams ! japan for me for a massive (for me anyway )payout smaller on madhmoon and will also have a pop  on circus maximus .good luck all !

in no particular order the first three are most likely to come from sir dragonet, telecaster, Bangkok and madhmoon. gl all!

if you look at the crabby action  and relative slowness of sir dragonet over a mile in the vase , its little wonder the boys are scratching their heads . hes obviously not impressive workwise thus his price , but , really comes on doesnt he . very surprised if he doesnt win

charlton you have selected 1/3 rd of the field . a brave man indeed

Broome and Circus Maximus to slog it out.

I've got a feeling that not only will I not be surprised if he doesn't win, but that sir dragonet is a place lay. feel he'll struggle on this quicker ground.

Jockey booking suggests my ante post Japan bets are lost.
Surprised they didn’t leave Doncha on Sir Dragonet.

gpz6316
30 May 19 21:25
Joined: 28 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 977 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
charlton you have selected 1/3 rd of the field . a brave man indeed

you obviously have no experience of combinatorics

AOB claiming 1st 3 places with Telecaster (2.12) and Bangkok (2.46) not to be placed.

dont lose heart uncle as said they dont know for sure who is best ,if aobs jocks can choose and ryan gets 1st donnacha 2nd  pick etc then they will be guided by prominence in betting and visual/ and racecourse form plus what they do at home , but at home and and on the racecourse are 2 different things ,some work well flashy types  some are lazier  more laid back types so its difficult for connections to assess  imo opinion of course .hence why the jocks  seem to get it wrong plenty of times .

should add they dont know who is best with the lightly raced types ,obviously the more exposed  4yos have mostly  shown thier hand ^^^^

I don't particularly like impossible 123, but in my book calling him bungle amounts to school yard bullying, which I like even less...

Uncle a fan of ****cat dolls

Pu$$y

AVD friendless in the on the day market , just like the AP market

I didn`t realise that Mark Weinfeld, owner of Helena Springfield Ltd, also owns Telecaster which H.S. bred but runs under the guise of Castle Down Racing Helena Springfield normally keep the fillies but sell the colts, but they decided to keep Telecaster who was initially entered in the Derby but dropped out at a forfeit stage when trainer Hughie Morrison advised so. Now they have had to supplement it at a cost of £85,000 having failed to pay the £1,100 at the foreit stage. Bad business that imo. After all, what is 1500 quid to the likes of Helena Sprinfield?

gone a bit nuts on the derby, now 350 on broome and avd

hoping they are not just O'Brien also rans

I know the two aren't directly related but the flop of medhaayiah for me is a slight negative for sir dragonet, comes in with similar profile, won impressively on soft ground at chester

the one positive he has that she doesn't, is that he's bred to stay very well

the reaction to the oaks on circus maximus is a good example of why bookies win

yes true but I think circus maximus is a very good looking horse though-obviously that's not the reason why he's being backed, it's because he's got frankie up

worried about this Bangkok, might have to cover him and go in with a three-pronged attack

"beat" Mohawk who was giving him 5 lbs. Mohawk wouldn't be 11/1 for this with god on his back

Got burned by the Surfman withdrawal.
My bet tomorrow will be a place lay of Sir Dragonet.
He has never run quickly, even in training if you believe a comment about his home work.

japan drifted out to 17/1 on here. any reason ?

Norway is beginning to nag me. If Sir Dragonet doesn't appreciate the faster going then Norway should - hes a full brother to Ruler of the World who thrived on it as did most of his dams offspring. Sir D held Norway in at Chester and once in the clear he ran on really well so with a clear run (hes well drawn in 10) and if the going does become a factor for the fav then Norway will be a lot closer to Sir D tomorrow. The down side ? The jockey booking (sorry Jamie ) - looks like Ballydoyle don't have a huge amount of faith in Norway especially as hes been passed over by Heffernan who was so successful on him as a 2yo.

Having been robbed on Norway at 40/1+ in the Eurovision Song Contest I am hoping karma means I get my just rewards backing Norway at 40/1+ for the Derby.

GL All.

had a saver on Bangkok. so three pronged attack now, Bangkok, avd and broome. nearly backing half the field.

Bangkok the trainer is very bullish. also the step up in trip could be in it's favour, although not certain.

28 japan on hear now . could someone please nip into the stable and count how many legs thank you

28 seems realistic, why do you think he should be much shorter?

well on breeding he should def stay , was progressive last season and" should " come on a fair bit from the dante also i liked the way he knuckled down and got the job done on his last win . moore seemed to look after him in the dante and i am hoping for a lot of improvement .

For whatever reason I couldn`t post yesterday but the clock proved right in the Oaks and the horse that went quicker on the same day at Lingfield was Anthony Van Dyck who I have backed. Also the key form/clock race for this year`s classics has been the Racing Post Trophy with Magna Grecia and Phoenix of Spain obliging and on that basis Circus Maximus is my other each way bet.

Did back Line of Duty a long time ago but his run in the Dante was dismal so little or no hope for this one.

Wide open, just hope we see a convincing winner.

This year, for me, there were only three worthy trials. Narrowly the best winning performance in my book was that put up by Sir Dragonet. I have Telecaster's Dante win just 1lb behind but to me he looked to have the harder race. Looking at the last ten Derby winning performances, both of those horses would just about match the worst winning performance, which in my view was that put up by Ruler Of The World. So in a year where the field looks to lack strength in depth at the top end either of those could be just about good enough if they repeat their latest efforts, but I don't want to back any of them.

The next best trial was Lingfield, which I have 4lbs behind Sir Dragonet and normally that wouldn't be good enough for me to consider. However after the Dante didn't throw up an outstanding prospect I had to reconsider what I'd earlier said after the Lingfield event. It was a disappointed knee jerk reaction as I was hoping to see a bit more from AVD.

It is the opponent that I would take from the race as I thought Anthony Van Dyck ran an excellent Derby trial

I posted that after AVD had run second to Quorto and still stand by it. I think some publications had AVD improving in the Dewhurst but for me he was below par that day after the big run against Quorto. It was also no surprise when he was again below par in America. The one negative is that in eight runs AVD has only put up that kind of figure once, which would normally mean alarm bells. Maybe he performed above his regular level against Quorto, a bit like Western Australia's best run in the Futurity. Or maybe that run was a peak effort which finished him off. In his favour though I would say he looks a horse who is probably never going to be very impressive until he gets an end to end gallop.

I am keeping the faith and have that one effort a huge 9lbs clear of this field. If he can repeat that effort I can see him beating these pretty easily.

I think (and hope) the winner will come from Ireland with the best 2 yr old form (in Ireland), or the best Irish Derby Trial form. Good luck all, and the horses come back safe and sound.

this sir dragonet looks like a monster in the paddock. withers huge. think I've done my money on my selections, hard to see past the dragon.

laid broome and van dyck both e/w 1 2 3 and 4

gl all

get in!

well done winners thought i had it with japan

wd Figgis, that is a great early shout

WD LR

cheers mate, and yes well done Figgis as well great shout as usual.

was nervous as a kitten there put too much on the race. thought I was done when broome flattened out but they couldn't deny big tone!

Anhy idea what he went IR?

Cheers Charlton, LR. Enjoyed that, in the end, thought it was going to be a hard luck story

Well done Figgis and other winners

Well picked out Figgis, a nice priced winner. I was expecting Coolmore to set a fierce pace but I think the average pace early on allowed him to show his superior speed at the finish.

Charlton2005
01 Jun 19 16:52
Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 6,949 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
Anhy idea what he went IR?

broome? no idea probably not that short. looked very one paced as figs was suggesting beforehand.

sir dragonet looked the most likely winner in the straight; I have a theory that sir dragon would be better at ten furlongs. could be a horse for the irish champion stakes.

I noticed actually when I checked before the race that Anthony had the highest bha rating in the field, or at least I think he did. might be worth bearing in mind for future as others more hyped.

Well done winners. That switch to the rail was the winning move.

Great run from Japan and the Irish Derby should be a cracker if they all reoppose, though if he were mine I’d aim Madhmoon for the Eclipse.

well done winners especially impossible 123 whom had selected avd a long time ago and is much deprecated . hope you had a good win and didnt blit out of your position

Ta bobbyjo, Jack. Actually I think he won despite the slow early pace. Sometimes they still quicken up early enough for it not to affect the final time but this time was definitely hamstrung by it. I hope he still gets underrated by the market on this as I think we could see a bigger performance from him at the Curragh.

I think the pace was unsatisfactory early on and that's why they finished in a bunch, and why Madhmoon who I think will be better over 10 furlongs was able to finish so close up. Some pundits are saying he outstayed them but I don't think that's true, I think his superior speed has won the race.

great that the total wankr charlton done is dough happy days .

madhmoon wants right handed as i cant remember seeing a colt hold out against the camber like that under serious pressure from sir dragonet et al . if sd were allowed to stretch down the camber ie madhmoon on the other side i think sd would,ve won . being held out cost them both imo

gpz6316, many thanks. Had loads here and topped up when he was offered smallish amounts right up to 85 here, and 12/1 --> 16/1 with 'billies'; unable to cash-out with 'Sly' and 'billies', but did lay off a chunk with a similar chunk running for free. And. I backed him again at 'match***k when he drifted out along with Sir Dragonet as a saver when that was a confirmed runner. But, it could so easily have gone less rewarding had Madhmoon won - all in a good period of due diligence and strong constitution.

I hope the result was good for you too. Horse racing is swings and roundabouts, and at times very humbling too. Hope Persian King can score tomorrow for a couple of trebles, then hopefully TDH in the St James's for the finale.

i lost only on sd , but , got a great run for my money so i,ve no complaints

SD ran well considering he's so inexperienced - he'd be the one for The Curragh, I believe. I thought he'd pull away when he led at the 2f pole; Madhmoon ran beyond the expectations of some "vocals" here, but just could not repel the late thrust of AVD coming up next to the rails - maybe he did not see him.

Well, Epsom is over for the year for me. Next, Royal Ascot and then The Curragh no doubt with the some of the protagonists in the Derby today in attendance.

we wait for Geoffreys  response . if you cant be nice or passive , say nothing . respect peoples opinions and dont sully the site . you are not a young man , but , a keyboard hardman .

is that the first time a coolmore colt in the pink colours has won the derby?

You'd want those colours to win a Derby if you paid £60k for them.   I don't know the answer to your question but I think this IS the first time. They may have won an Irish Derby in them.  Someone will know.

Jack, have you read the analysis that says the race was efficiently run and if so what do you make of it?

well done on avd figgis and imp,good call .

Good call Figgis wish I'd remember you touting AVD's performance behind Quorto from last season- inspired.  Sometimes pays to ask yourself in an open Derby, who was the best 2yo? LOD and AVD.  AVD had proven he'd trained on.  So easy to see after the race eh.  I like Japan to turn the form over if they all go to the Curragh though. He's improving every race and got a bad trip.  Madhmoon could end up being a monster over 10f.

Cheers lads.

Yep another good call Figgis. I rated the National Stakes very highly but felt AVD might be just short of winning a top flight race due to his lack of tactical speed. Interesting how O'Brien has no fear of exposing his colts. How many English trainers would run a horse not just once but twice more after a gruelling defeat in a group 1? A lot of trainers need to look at how precious they are when it comes to placing horses and reacting to defeats. Running horses like Broome in the Acomb? It's hardly conventional but it clearly did him no harm, as with AVD in the Breeders Cup, which is not perhaps the best Derby trial of all...

Ta Howellsy.

Figgis, I've just seen the article and I think it's quite accurate. Watching the race back again I think the pace in the first few furlongs is slightly quicker than looked the case when watching live. Even Richard Hoiles in commentary says "there's no great pace on" after they jumped out the gates and "they're not going very fast in the early stages here", and he's usually a good judge of these things.

I think I was disappointed with the pace as I was expecting Coolmore to set a much stronger pace as that would have suited their two main contenders, Sir Dragonet and Broome, and when Japan drifted all day for no apparent reason I thought he may be used as the pacemaker to set it up for the others but that didn't transpire.

Either way, I think the main emphasis was on speed and not stamina. When they go too fast early in the Derby, because the first part of the race is uphill it really sorts the men out from the boys and those with stamina limitations get found out. With five horses almost going past the post together in a line it didn't look a particularly attritional race. As you stated in your preview, AVD had shown the most speed and had the best form over shorter trips last year and he showed the best finishing speed to get up and win the race.

It looked a pretty average Derby beforehand and I think that's still the case. How does the race compare to previous Derbies on your ratings?

Jack, it's a very low rating time wise, much the worst I've ever rated. However it's so low that, in my view, it obviously isn't a true reflection. Even excluding AVD, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses who I have never rated particularly highly, have all run in the region of 10lbs lower than their previous best on the clock. These were unusually fast conditions for a Derby. When Workforce won the conditions were much faster than average, and I have this year's going allowance matching that. Therefore, in this instance, I see no point in comparing sectional times with par times. The only race it can reasonably be compared against is the Workforce one and it comes up markedly slower at most stages. I know those still trying to claim the race was truly run will point to the last sectional not being faster than average as an indicator that they didn't go slow early, but for me there is an obvious flaw in that methodology when dealing with extremely fast conditions.

Visually to my eye the early pace did not look anything more than average at the very best and Richard Hoiles seemed to think the same. I can't comment about par times and so on because I don't do speed figures and sectionals. As an in-running player I just rely on what my eyes tell me in real-time.

So even horses like Broome who you did not rate highly beforehand have run well below their best? That's interesting.

Jack, yes they haven't run their best time performance wise (that is after conditions have been factored in) because, in my view, the way the race was run didn't allow them to. I know it has been said that using the scientific evidence is superior to people only using their eyes, which generally I agree with, but if the weaknesses inherent in the interpretation of the evidence aren't recognised I'd say sometimes the latter type punters are closer to the truth

The clock rarely lies Harry.

Data of any kind can be interpreted differently by different people because of the peculiarities of perception which can be significantly influenced by inbuilt bias. Looking at races and sectionals comes into the same category.

Put simply,we see what we want to see.

The proof of this is the "witch" and "young girl" picture which no doubt you will have seen before.

https://www.google.com/search?q=perception+witch+%26+girl&rlz=1C1GCEA_enGB790GB790&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=neNx8l0oPfKNyM%253A%252CNQFHN2mcDwwVpM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kSnYYAMleGTzB4nrhRb6QpsX0SW1w&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjDi6Cpg9DiAhURqXEKHcBbDgEQ9QEwA3oECAUQCg#imgrc=neNx8l0oPfKNyM:

Hi Sandown. How do you read it? For me, as a lot of things in racing analysis, it is a percentage call. My call is that there's more chance the race wasn't optimally run. I could be wrong. What I have a problem with is when an interpretation is put as scientific fact. Sure, there are occasions when that can be the case, however this matter isn't one of them.

Hi Figgis.

I agree with your analysis. The figures  do not show imo that the  race was run too fast early or that the race was run at an even pace (i.e effficiently). The bunch finish illustrates that they are much of a muchness and allowing for the different conditions between Friday & Saturday there is very little between the Oaks & Derby performances. Also, we have the Sotosizzler race over the Derby trip for comparison.

The only conclusion that I can draw  is that the horses contesting this year's Derby were , not on the day at least, up to previous years. It was a poor race from a ratings standpoint, both time wise and using collateral form. I wouldn't like to say that the outcome would be the same either if any of them should meet again, as they no doubt will. There is room for a better 3 yr old  middle distance horse to emerge over the summer.

Unless Quorto rises out of the ashes, don`t hold your breath.

I think as with most analysis the best test is how it performs as a predictor to the future. Obviously not in very instance as other factors can be at play in a future event. For instance, some people thought Telecaster had run faster than Sir Dragonet going into the Derby. I had SD a negligible 1lb faster, but it would be ludicrous to suggest that anything was proven on the day because Telecaster obviously didn't give his true running. Although this wasn't entirely unexpected after the hard race.

As to the future, if we believe the Derby was a truly run event then another close finish between the same runners should be expected. It has even been suggested that Madhmoon has a strong chance of turning the form around. Regarding the winner, AVD has now had 9 races. He had his prep race and O'Brien would've had him at peak for Saturday. If Saturday's race was optimally run for him then there is no reason whatsoever to believe he will improve much on that next time. However, for me the percentage call is that it wasn't run to suit him, and given the well run race I expect at the Curragh he will hammer the likes of Madhmoon. I look forward to the Irish Derby.

Sandown
04 Jun 19 15:43
Joined: 06 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 3,224 | Blogger: Sandown's blog
Data of any kind can be interpreted differently by different people because of the peculiarities of perception which can be significantly influenced by inbuilt bias. Looking at races and sectionals comes into the same category.

Put simply,we see what we want to see.

Not quite right. We see what we expect to see.

The one I would take from the race is Humanitarian . Beaten 7 after an interrupted preparation and on a track that probably didn't suit he can do better in time .

telecaster looked gone in his coat in the paddock for me which suggests that bringing him back so quickly after the dante might have been a mistake. Bangkok sweated up although I think that horse might be a ten furlong horse anyway.

The clock was against both of them.

Madhmoon and Japan were some of the coolest and sweat free in the paddock. AVB not so relaxed and a bit of sweat between the legs so I'm marking his performance up. The one that really seemed to get wound up was Sir D. He really didn't enjoy the noise from the various speakers around the ring. (they don't hold back on this front on Derby day - its a real test of a 3 year olds temperament as well as his ability to handle the crazy course) Each time he passed a speaker it set off another bout of jig jogging. Only his third visit to a racecourse so perhaps understandable therefore I'm very interested in him for the Irish version with that experience under his belt.

Interesting Timeform article, arguing that a rematch in the Irish Derby, which is typically a more tactical and slowly-run affair than the Epsom Derby, could see Madhmoon in a better light:
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/timefigure-review-investec-derby-festival-562019

There are a few things wrong with that article, not least the statement that the Irish Derby is typically slowly run.

AVD lost his position during the race, and considering where he was (hemmed-in next to the rails) he did extremely well to extricate himself from there and challenge from behind the main wall of protagonists eg Sir Dragonet, Madhmoon, Broome and Japan; won coming up next to the rails again. He must have run a few lengths more than the others except Broome who was wide throughout the race.

In the Irish Derby Madhmoon will probably be held-up a wee-bit longer before challenging, but I think AVD or (Japan/Sir Dragonet or Broome) would probably outstay him again, all things being equal.

I wonder if AVD found a golden highway in the last 150 yards

Did a Sir Percy. Must have gone pretty big in running.

Did a Sir Percy. Must have gone pretty big in running.


65.0


https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/result/epsom-downs/2019-06-01/1630/16/5/investec-derby

Thanks.