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Epsom Derby 2019
Epsom Derby 2019
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Replies: 506
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more clues required for me
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Mickey mouse race around a go kart track
Horses for courses Very few greats over the years Nijinsky the best ...dancing brave ..... Shergar ? |
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I'll give you sea the stars and gallileo
But the track is a fecking mess |
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yeh it is a Mickey Mouse race,thats why Coolmore
crave it every year. |
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There will be many more Derby clues coming up over the next two weeks eg Anthony Van Dyck and Japan two of 7 from AOB entered for the Chester Vase on 8th May; Japan and Broome along with Too Darn Hot in the Dante on 16th May. In between there is the Derrinstown Derby Trial on 12th May where AOB will, no doubt, have several running too.
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They only go for the doh
The fact the track Is a roller coaster ride Means feck all to them Or the bha .... You will see a proper horse Galloping away in the 2000 or 1000 guineas The derby at epsom is about greed Nothing else The camber crowds the rail Right hand then left hand Horses changing feet Uphill then downhill then uphill Nightmare for the horses and jockeys Why ? |
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Yeah chester and epsom are comparable arent they ?
Ejit |
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I like Broome. Very pleasing introduction. Could see it favourite after it wins the Dante.
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yes chester and epsom are very much comparable . they are both left handed and require tactical pace / ability to travel well balanced sorts , aob very much rates chester as a learning track for epsom , you couldnt be more wrong
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Japan (6/4) and Anthony Van Dyck (3/1) for the Chester Vase on wednesday; Anthony Van Dyck is 2/1 for the Dee Stake on thursday.
Magna Grecia won the 2000G well today, but I think the draw on the stand side was a distinct advantage to him; Skardu finished to best effect on the far side to finish 3rd overall; Ten Sovereigns led there, but dropped back to fifth, but I do not see Ten Sovereigns ever running over 8f again. Despite winning the 2000G today I just cannot see him running in the Derby (not entered). |
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took a bit of 66s Bangkok after Doncaster wouldnt swop for anything at present.
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Japan runs in the Derristown
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king ottokar has hit my radar today , looks a strong type that will come on , leads on the near fore , likes lh obv . i quite like this one . entered in the dante and will like a bit of juice . just throwing it out there
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King Ottokar is in the Chester Vase and Dee Stakes on wednesday and thursday respectively; betting indicating the Vase.
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Fox Chairman 9/4 fav Slybet,oddschecker,that a mistake?
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it wont be good ground when they run the vase . plenty of rain due here in the north west overnight and through the morning . that should suit the son of motivator
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Credit where it's due. Good spot by irishone who mentioned Sir Dragonet (though not by name) back on April 26. Now third favourite.
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A visually impressive performance by King Dragonet in the Chester Vase beating Norway. The question is what pecking order is he at Ballydoyle, and how good is the win? Norway finished behind another AOB's inmate Sydney Opera House who trailed in at a distance behind Broome, and who was also beaten by Line Of Duty another Derby entry.
At 9/2 fav (now) I'd wait until the Derrinstown Derby Trial this sunday where AOB has 3 stable big guns ie Japan, Anthony Van Dyck and Broome the impressive winner of the Ballysax last month. Good luck to those on at much bigger prices for King Dragonet. |
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Sir Dragonet won the Vase in a quick time, and for a horse having just his second start, his rate of improvement is massive. If he were able to reproduce that figure at Epsom, never mind any normal improvement from 2nd to 3rd start, he'd win easily. Just rating him on a line through Norway makes him of massive interest, as Norway ran a not dissimilar race and clearly had no reason to be tiring like some of those who forced the pace might have done. However, if the Derby is run on quick ground, you'd have to have concerns about his tactical speed around Epsom. On today's run, for example, it's hard to imagine him winning a good ground Dante in anything other than a 'Libertarian' style. Let's see if the Dante throws up a handier type with tactical speed. The Guineas didn't throw up any obvious 8-12f types like Masar or Roaring Lion, so perhaps his relative lack of speed won't matter as much; perhaps he will come on for the experience and be sharper next time, but I still have a niggling doubt about this colt which would not have been the case had he sat 3rd or 4th and done that in the final two furlongs. I'm confident he'll be Ballydoyle's first string on the day, as it'll be hard for any of his mates to top that visual impression (visual impressions counting for so much in this game), so he's probably a good investment at 5-1.
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It all depends on how good this year's Derby field turns out to be on the day. Last year's was nothing special but it was up to standard and, in my view, on today's form Sir Dragonet would've got just touched off for a place. However if we have a renewal as poor as when Ruler Of The World or Harzand won then he'd have a great winning chance. Actually I have Sir Dragonet on the exact same mark ROTW ran to when winning the same race. At the time I didn't think that would be good enough but it turned out to be one of the worst runnings for years. So I'm hoping this form doesn't turn out to be good enough but it could be.
AVD showed much better form than this when finishing behind Quorto, but he was below that in the Dewhurst and in America and we've yet to see if he's trained on. Broome won a Ballysax race that fell into his lap and he will NOT be winning the Derby  |
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Can`t agree it was a fast time +8.91 seconds above standard on good to soft ground and more would be needed to win a Derby. However, it couldn`t have done it more easily and on would likely improve again so winning at Epsom is clearly not out of the question.
Not for me at the current price but let`s see what transpires over the next couple of weeks. |
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Looking at Japan, I have him 7lbs below Sir Dragonet today. He's only had three runs and could improve from 2 to 3 but I still find it a bit surprising he's so close behind SD in the betting, unless it's based on something he's been doing in training.
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Don't think we saw anything today to suggest we've seen a Derby or oaks winner. You won't knock me off too darn hot for the Derby and Imo maqsad is a much more impressive filly than the gosden horse, I think she just mugged them today and killed the horse on the inside for speed, the oaks will be a different ball game.
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if its soft will win a furlong, if its g/f gets beat a furlong
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Seriously,...with Broome, Japan, Anthony Van Dyck and Circus Maximus in tow? I'd like to be proven wrong...
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Any comment from AOB post the impressive win of Sir Dragonet at Chester?
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No hinting of where Sir Dragonet would be going next when AOB was interviewed post the success of Circus Maximus. However, Anthony Van Dyck is running in the Lingfield trial on saturday; Broome Derrinstown sunday at Leopardstown; Japan (J) possibly in the Dante against Too Darn Hot (TDH). But, the sceptic in me says only one of these two will show though (I think) as I do not envisage both horses post an injury will do battle in the Dante for different reasons eg J needs a run, and TDH to ascertain his prospect for the Derby.
Could TDH end up in the Irish 2000G (against Magna Grecia) instead if missing the Dante? Anything is possible, I guess, as it is horse racing. |
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No decision yet on whether to supplement him for the Epsom Derby at £85k.
AOB: "The lads will think about what they want to do and make the plan." |
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Non story, he's obviously going to run barring a mishap.
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He looks like their main contender to me at this stage.
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You won't knock me off too darn hot for the Derby
LR, any view on TDH's stride pattern being a negative to him staying? |
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I'd wait until the weekend is over who'd be the Ballydoyle Derby numero uno with Anthony Van Dyck and Broome running on saturday and sunday respectively. But, the surprise is the omission of Japan (4x) eg scheduled to run in the Chester Vase, Dee Stakes, Lingfield Trial and Derrinstown Trial (his preference as AOB did not want him to travel) who is now a possible for the Dante against Too Darn Hot next thursday - frying pan into the fire? As such Japan has drifted from 7.8 to 14.5 (earlier) and now on offer at 11.
Will Japan show up in the Dante next thursday? In my opinion unlikely unless Too Darn Hot is a no show himself. |
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after that performance they must,won't they.
Anyone else trained that should think they would. |
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Too Darn Hot,I know he aint been out yet
but some of the horses he beat last year haven't exactly franked the form,(noteably, Arthur Kit,Advertise and Mohawk).Mohawk did run a fair race in the Dee Stks today. |
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Until Too Darn Hot proves his well-being and runs up to his 2 yr old form I'd not back him for the Epsom Derby either given his stamina doubt; the Dante with Japan even if he turns up will need the race, according to AOB is no great shakes either. This year (sadly to some) all the big guns in the betting (at least) are all in the charge of AOB eg Anthony Van Dyck, Broome, Japan and Sir Dragonet - all in separate trials. And, the British ones have been uncompetitive so far.
Let's hope the Lingfield Trial proves different. |
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Big move for Sir Dragonet today with Japan not among the decs for the Derrinstown. Surely that's game over for Japan backers.
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Probably going to the Dante according to Aiden.
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So the exact opposite of what he said 3 days ago:
"Japan is entered at Lingfield but I am thinking that he will instead run in the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown along with Anthony Van Dyck and Broome," O'Brien said May 6. The trainer added: "Japan had an easy week about three weeks ago, along with Anthony Van Dyck, and we don't want to go too far away with him for his first run back. In saying that, we do need to get a run into him. Main thing is my lovely antepost bet isn't lost (yet!!). |
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every ante post bet i have there is always some kind of drift or scare ! used to it now ,just have to sit on my hands and wait it out
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"On pedigree ANTHONY VAN DYCK is not sure to be suited by a stamina test like this but he's the clear form horse and goes for a top yard."
Wouldn`t disagree with the above comment. Will watch with interest. |