Melbourne Cup

Im really into this race and the lead up qualifying races.

I cant get away from Marwan Koukash's Magic Circle at best price 12/1 - he was just so impressive on his last 2 starts that its hard to see the Ian Williams trained 6yo coming out of the places  if he is given a good trip.

Of the others im interested in are three Japanese bred horses , one trained by Aussie Darran Weir... Tosen Brasil 33/1 , Sole Impact 200/1 trained by Hirofumi Toda , and Chestnut Coat 25/1 trained by Yoshito Yahagi

The last two actually run in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup and i have a feeling that this race on Saturday morning might have actually been the main race target for these Japanese trained horses Chestnut Coat 25/1, Sole Impact 66/1 - I wouldn't be surprised if they had a forecast like they did in the 2006 Melbourne Cup and the 2011 Dubai World Cup.

Chestnut is already guaranteed a place as is my 2nd choice for the Melbourne cup, whereas i think Sole Impact needs to win this Saturday or go close ...im not totally sure if you only get a weight penalty if you win these qualifying races or if you get placed.

Hi RozelKid,

My earlier assumption that Prince Of Arran's good 3rd in the Herbert Power would enhance his prospects of getting in the Melbourne Cup was wrong, I now believe that only race winners pick-up weight penalties. He'd already passed the ballot clause (by placing in a Group race) and will only get in if his weight is sufficiently high enough in the handicap, which it might not be.

He can still guarantee a place by either winning one of the remaining ballot-exempt races (Caulfield Cup - not entered, Cox Plate - trip too short, Lexus - too close to the big race) OR by winning another race (eg. Geelong Cup) and picking up a sufficient weight penalty to push him up the handicap (a la Yucatan). Penalties seem to be at the discretion of the Aussie handicapper, but I don't think he'd need to go up by much to guarantee his place.

Good luck with your Japanese horses. I think the Caulfield Cup has had a big prize money injection this year, so deservedly ought to be a target in its own right.

The way they play smoke and mirrors over the "order of entry lists" comes across as a bit of a farce.

To be honest it pretty disgusting , im still trying to get my head around it.

Really like Magic Circle and Withhold for this but worried Withhold will now have to have a prep run to try & get into the race, and for this to spoil his preparation. Godolphin had an array of interesting runners but sorry to read Hamada fatally injured and Cross Counter has had a setback. I thought Best Solution might be their best chance but I'm assuming he's unlikely to run - doesn't he run in the Caulfield Cup instead? Gosden's Muntahaa another interesting contender imho assuming he turns up.

CAULFIELD CUP FIELD - Saturday 20th - 6:00 am

1. Best Solution
J: PAT COSGRAVE T: SAEED BIN SUROOR W: 57.5KG
Best Odds: $15

COMMENT: He is a relatively lightly raced rock hard stayer from the Saeed Bin Suroor camp. He comes into the Caulfield Cup after back to back wins in some strong overseas races. He will love the 2400m and can handle a dry or rain affected track. A very versatile horse who will be hard to beat.

2. The Cliffsofmoher
J: HUGH BOWMAN T: AIDAN O'BRIEN W: 56.5KG
Best Odds: $7.00

COMMENT: Finished off with the fastest sectionals in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday and looks primed to run a very good 2400m in the Caulfield Cup. Has strong overseas form and the Internationals again look very hard to beat in the majors this year. Should go close.

3. Chestnut Coat
J: YUGA KAWADA T: YOSHITO YAHAGI W: 55.5KG
Best Odds: $18

COMMENT: A Japanese raider so he has to be respected in this. His last two starts have been very good in strong overseas races. Having his first up run in Australia and on his overseas form will probably need a bit further than the 2400m. Watch for a strong finish and a better run in the Melbourne Cup.

4. Jon Snow
J: DAMIAN LANE T: MURRAY BAKER & ANDREW FORSMAN W: 55.5KG
Best Odds: $34

COMMENT: Thought his three runs this time in have had a lot of merit without really pressing for a win. Comes through the Turnbull which should be a good form race into the Caulfield Cup but he will likely need it to be wet to be winning.

5. Sound Check
J: JORDAN CHILDS T: MICHAEL MORONEY W: 55.5KG
Best Odds: $21

COMMENT: A German galloper so he has to be respected in this as German horses have always ran well in Australia. He probably was a little unlucky at his last two starts and he is pretty well weighted in this. He looks a very good horse and needs to be included. Danger

6. Ace High
J: DAMIEN OLIVER T: DAVID PAYNE W: 55KG
Best Odds: $13

COMMENT: Returned to winning form in the Hill Stakes last start which was good to see after knocking on the door for some time. Goes into the Caulfield Cup rock hard fit and we know he will run a strong 2400m. Yet to race at Caulfield which is a bit of a query as is the Hill Stakes form but he must be included unless it is a rain affected track.

7. The Taj Mahal
J: JAMES MCDONALD T: LIAM HOWLEY W: 55KG
Best Odds: $15

COMMENT: Was a strong winner of the JRA Cup last start but this looks a lot tougher on paper. Will likely be one of the leaders and will make his own luck and with the Caulfield track favouring leaders lately he could be a knock out hope.

8. Duretto
J: DWAYNE DUNN T: ANDREW BALDING W: 54.5KG
Best Odds: $21

COMMENT: Comes into the Caulfield Cup with okay International form. He won pretty impressively last start although the form from that race doesn't look too exciting. He is weighted well in this and will run a good 2400m but i am happy to risk in a quality addition of the race.

9. Red Verdon
J: ZAC PURTON T: ED DUNLOP W: 54KG
Best Odds: $19

COMMENT: Has good form from overseas although i think some of the other International raiders look stronger. The 2400m should be the perfect distance for him so a win would not surprise so he should be added to multiples although i think there are a handful of others that are stronger. Each way claims

10. Vengeur Masque
J: PATRICK MOLONEY T: MICHAEL MORONEY W: 54KG
Best Odds: $126.00

COMMENT: Got back in The Bart Cummings and never really fired a shot. Will likely be looking for further so i can't see him figuring in this. Pass

11. Ventura Storm
J: REGAN BAYLISS T: DAVID & B HAYES & T DABERNIG W: 54KG
Best Odds: $34

COMMENT: Is yet to win in Australia after plenty of racing so there is a massive query around his ability to win a race like this however he has been racing well this preparation and should be included in the multiples.

12. Mighty Boss
J: TIM CLARK T: MICK PRICE W: 53.5KG
Best Odds: $101

COMMENT: Won the Caulfield Guineas at big odds last year but hasn't really gone close in his last six starts so he doesn't come into the race in great form. Happy to leave out.

13. Homesman
J: BEN MELHAM T: LIAM HOWLEY W: 53KG
Best Odds: $12

COMMENT: He was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday after some very good runs at WFA. He drops a lot of weight in this and he will likely take up the running and with some easy sectionals i think he could give a massive sight. Keep safe

14. Kings Will Dream
J: CRAIG WILLIAMS T: DARREN WEIR W: 53KG
Best Odds: $5.50

COMMENT: Topped the Caulfield Cup market for a long time until his run in the Turnbull Stakes which was a little disappointing to the eye. Thought it was better than what it looked and he gets a good drop in weight in this. His runs before thr Turnbull all suggested he was going to be very hard to beat in this and i still think he will. One of the big dangers.

15. Sole Impact
J: RYUSEI SAKAI (A) T: HIROFUMI TODA W: 53KG
Best Odds: $81

COMMENT: Being a Japanese horse you have to respect him in the race although he is first up in five months so on that i am happy to risk him here. Will need the run so look out for him wherever he goes next.

16. Gallic Chieftain
J: TBC T: DARREN WEIR W: 52.5KG
Best Odds: $81

COMMENT: Thought his run in the JRA Plate was good two starts ago but his Herbert Power run suggests it would take a lot of things to go right for him to win this. Prefer to back him in country cups.

17. Night's Watch
J: BEN ALLEN (A) T: DARREN WEIR W: 52KG
Best Odds: $11

COMMENT: Had been racing very well until what was probably a disappointing run in G1 company in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday. He drops a lot of weight on that run but im not sure he has the class to win a major such as the Caulfield Cup. Prefer him in G2/G3 class.

18. Youngstar
J: KERRIN MCEVOY T: CHRIS WALLER W: 51.5KG
Best Odds: $5.50

COMMENT: Outside of Winx she put in the best run in the Turnbull Stakes and arguably the meeting at Flemington that day. Her two starts before that throughout this preparation have both been very good and she is ticking along nicely for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday and with only 51kg on her back she is going to be very hard to hold out. The one to beat

19. Patrick Erin (E1)
J: COREY BROWN T: CHRIS WALLER W: 52KG
Best Odds: $81

COMMENT: Emergency

20. Jaameh (E2)
J: CORY PARISH T: DAVID & B HAYES & T DABERNIG W: 50KG
Best Odds: $67

COMMENT: Emergency

2 days ago Ed Dunlops Red Vardon was number 20  needed 2 to come out to grantee a start  , by acceptance stage 9 of the 18 runners were pulled out . Imagine all those Aussie punters doing their nuts - this is one of their top group 1 races of the year and two days before the race half the field dont even declare.

The Red Verdon camp were apprehensive about getting a run earlier this week, yet made the field at number nine and Robin Trevor Jones, Dunlop's travelling head lad, said: "We're a long way up, which is quite astounding, but there you go – that's Australian racing.

"One minute you're not getting in the next minute you're in at nine. So it's all systems go now, fingers crossed for a favourable draw tomorrow."

Imagine the EBOR Hcap with half the field being withdrawn 2 days before the race - its total bollocks imo.

4 days before race, not 2 - apparently there has been future wagering on this race since September 2nd - jeez ...what a bloodbath.

How good are Aussie stayers in the context of global racing?

Back in the day I was an avid follower of Nick Mordin (his 'Betting For A Living' is required reading) and he would often talk about racehorse 'populations', espousing the theory that racehorses from different countries generally exhibited different strengths (Aussies = sprinters, French = milers, GB/IRE = middle distances etc). That was a good few years ago and perhaps times have changed and populations have shifted, but it will be interesting to see how the locals fare against the European invaders in the Caulfield Cup.

That said, some of the Aussies seem to be quite stoutly bred these day. For example, High Chaparral sired Youngstar and Ace High - 2 of the leading contenders for the CC. No shock to see the former as favourite given her recent 2nd to the wonder mare, but I can't help but be drawn to Ace High who is unexposed at the trip (got mugged in the Australian Derby) and looks a real scrapper. He has his fair share of weight, but I love his profile and have availed myself of a few quid @ 10/1.

Wind, Did you see Yucatan win last week in that hcap?..... it was embarrassing for the Aussies, jockey literally pulled him up across the line.

Every race is different and anything can happen .....this weeks forfeit stage is just a sign of what a joke Aussie racing is. Something isn't right with their hcapper .....but i cant put my finger on it.

Yes, I watched Yucatan (see OP). TBH, I don't think the handicapper was to blame for that, the horse seems to have found outrageous improvement - that back straight move was eye-catching!

yeah sorry , i see in OP.

I dont agree Mystic, with regards to the handicapper .....Tbh i think their racing is all to **** - i think they have many horses , which we would rate as hcappers , listed or potentially G3 , as their top G2 or G1 Horses.

I think that goes back to the racehorse 'populations' idea. If the Aussie thoroughbred population is biased towards speed then their stayers are likely to come up short when racing against horses from a population biased towards stamina (eg. GB/IRE). How many Aussie horses have come over for the Ascot Gold Cup compared to the Kings Stand?

The top staying races in Australia will inevitably be contested by the best stayers in Australia. That does not guarantee that they're as good as stayers from elsewhere.

I guess your issue is with how the best Aussie stayers are rated. It's difficult to tie-in ratings across hemispheres - there simply isn't enough cross-hemisphere competition. So I guess the handicapper assumes a bell-curve of ability, with (say) the top 5% of Aussie stayers being rated 100+, he wouldn't be too popular if he gave the best stayer in Australia a rating of 98.

...and the situation is confused further by an Australian tendency to run the same horse over a variety of distances. Take Ace High as and example, this year alone he's raced at 6f, 7f, 8f, 10f & 12f ! How often is that sort of schedule adopted for decent horses in the UK? This helps to muddy that ratings waters as a horse may achieve an internationally top-class rating at a shorter distance and still be competitive at a longer distance when racing against other non-stayers.

You would have thought it would have been sorted out by now.....especially with Godolphin and Coolmore having a presence there for many years.

We'll have a better idea after the Caulfield Cup on Saturday, especially if the Brits dominate the finish.

Although I've backed Ace High, who I see as a genuine 12f horse, I've also had a saver on The Cliffsofmoher. He could be well handicapped on his Derby 2nd & Eclipse 3rd (look at the horses he finished ahead of). He was staying-on nicely in The Ladbroke (following a break since The Eclipse) and is likely to strip fitter and appreciate stepping up to 12f. He is following a similar patch to Johannes Vermeer last year.

https://www.racing.com/form/2018-10-24/bet365-geelong/race/8

Could be a repeat of the Pitmen's Derby (different result though please)!

Well, GB/IRE horses (either current or ex) dominated the Caulfield Cup today. Of the 5 AUS/NZ bred horses in the race only Youngstar ran with credit in 7th, the other 4 filled the last 4 places.

Best Solution put up a great battling performance under a good ride from a wide draw. He'll probably pick up a penalty for that, which will make life tougher. Red Verdon didn't get much luck in running and is better than the bare form, The Cliffsofmoher was the eye-catcher in 3rd imo.

Was a good performance by Best Solution ..especially with the weight he was giving all of them.

The Japanese were disappointing , therefore a bit lighter in the pocket

The Geelong Cup Wednesday 24th October
Time: 6.00 AM

Distance: 2400m


final entries
   
1  FINCHE (GB)                    Chris Waller    Hugh Bowman       
2  ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (IRE)    Chris Waller    Corey Brown           
3  WITHHOLD (GB)            Roger Charlton    Kerrin McEvoy           
4  WALL OF FIRE (IRE)            Ciaron Maher    Mark Zahra           
5  ZACADA (NZ)                    Baker & Forsman    Damian Lane           
6  CASTERTON (IRE)            Chris Waller    Michael Walker           
7  MIDTERM (GB)                    Liam Howley    Ben Melham           
8  NORTHWEST PASSAGE            Waterhouse    Dwayne Dunn           
9  YOGI (NZ)                    Darren Weir       
10 HARIPOUR (IRE)            Darren Weir           
11 RUNAWAY                    Gai Waterhouse    Stephen Baster       
12 GUARDINI (FR)            Darren Weir           
13 MASTER ZEPHYR (GB)           Darren Weir           
14 CHEQUERED FLAG (NZ)            Darren Weir           
15 WHEAL LEISURE            A Alexander     Jye McNeil       
16 BARRY THE BAPTIST            Paul A Jones

Prince Of Arran looks to be heading for the Lexus instead.

Bye Bye Withold - apparently bled from both Nostrils - thats him out the big race. The winner RUNAWAY has no chance in the Melbourne Cup , if he gets in ...which he shouldn't.

Finche - Champion Hurdle 2020

I did suggest Finche would make a nice hurdler after he won his maiden.

Presumably, the bookmakers are offering big prices because he won't get in? He is 27 so three would have to come out?

Finche looked like a shire horse running down the straight - a beast of a horse. lol

Hurdlers do okay here...Vintage Crop 6th in the Champion Hurdle, Efficient popped a few to warm for Purple Moon (failed Hurdler)...Max Dynamite ran well a couple of times.

I’m sure they’re others but this is off the top of my head.

Only thing that wowed me so far is Yucatan but a son of Six Perfections winning this? Got to be something else in here to nibble at. Wouldn’t mind seeing Best Solution winning. He seems a hardier type this season and would be awesome  for SBS. He’s been trying forever to win this.

Anyways will decide after the breeders cup is over.

A real shame about Withhold. Big call to aim him at the MC after his Northumberland Plate win. It was a bit absurd he had to try and run well in the Geelong Cup for the sake of trying to get in the race. Surely they should have some special status for foreign raiders when travelling a horse to the other side of the world. Especially a horse with a profile like his as a Ces + Northumberland Plate winner.

It ts a highly contested hcap which looks to be getting classier over the years

What does smell , about their handicapping system and several racing club authorities, is that the entries and races are fully controlled by seemingly unaccountable and inconsistent racing club executives.

For example, a horse called "Trap For Fools"  was ordered to be withdrawn from the Coongy Cup on the 20th at Caulfield , due to an administrative error , but was due to run in the Cox Plate this weekend - the stewards have since turned around and again ordered the horse not to run .


"The committee felt his form didn't warrant a run and the field was narrowed to eight starters," Moonee Valley chairman Don Casboult said on Trap For Fools.

Now just imagine if the BHA or Ascot Racecourse turned around and exercised powers like this - The Czech Republic-trained Subway Dancer , who had never even won a G2 race in Europe , was allowed to run  in one of the best G1 races in the world - last time that horse won a race was a poor G3 in 2016 - do you see Ascot racecourse say No - you cant run because we dont think you are good enough

Source: justhorseracing.com.au


   Horse           Sex    Age    Trainer                 Weight    Penalty   
1  BEST SOLUTION (IRE)    H    5    Saeed Bin Suroor    57.5kg       
2  AVILIUS (GB)            G    5    James Cummings          54.5kg    1.5kg   
3  ACE HIGH            H    4    David Payne        55kg       
4  THE CLIFFSOFMOHER     H    5    Aidan O’Brien        56.5kg       
5  MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE)    G    7    Ian Williams        56kg       
6  WHO SHOT THEBARMAN     G    10    Chris Waller        55.5kg       
7  TOSEN BASIL (JPN)    H    7    Darren Weir        55.5kg       
8  MUNTAHAA (IRE)    G    6    John Gosden        55.5kg       
9  CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)    H    5    Yoshito Yahagi        55.5kg       
10 SOUND (GER)            H    6    Michael Moroney        55.5kg       
11 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)    H    4    Aidan O’Brien        51kg       
12 MARMELO (GB)            H    6    Hughie Morrison        55kg       
13 CROSS COUNTER (GB)    G    4    Charlie Appleby        51kg       
14 YOUNGSTAR            M    4    Chris Waller        51.5kg       
15 YUCATAN IRE (IRE)    H    5    Aidan O’Brien        54.5kg    2.5kg   
16 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE)    G    7    Michael Moroney        54kg       
17 VENTURA STORM (IRE)    G    6    David & B Hayes        54kg       
18 RED CARDINAL (IRE)    G    7    Darren Weir        54kg       
19 AUVRAY (FR)            G    8    Richard Freedman    54kg       
20 RED VERDON (USA)    H    6    Ed Dunlop        54kg       
21 FINCHE (GB)            H    5    Chris Waller    22    54kg       
22 RUNAWAY            R    4    Gai Waterhouse & Bott    52kg    1.5kg   
23 ZACADA (NZ)            G    6    Murray Baker & Forsman    53kg   

24**Hotham Handicap Winner**


Comments:

Duretto who currently sits at 15th in Order Of Entry is under an injury cloud and with eight days until the race we have excluded him from the Likely Field. If he has a quick recovery which we think is unlikely he may line-up in the field

Field for the Hotham, aka Lexus Stakes - 3rd November

Win and You're in the Cup


No Horse              Trainer                    Jockey                                     
1  SOLE IMPACT (JPN)      Hirofumi Toda                    Hugh Bowman               
2  A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes            Michael Walker           
3  PATRICK ERIN (NZ)      Chris Waller                     Corey Brown           
4  SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE)      Darren Weir                     Craig Williams           
5  TALLY              James Cummings              Tim Clark           
6  BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)      Chris Waller                     James McDonald       
7  GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)  Darren Weir                     Damian Lane           
8  RUNAWAY              Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott     Stephen Baster       
9  RISING RED (NZ)      Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Regan Bayliss       
10 JAAMEH (IRE)              David & B Hayes & T Dabernig     Mark Zahra       
11 NORTHWEST PASSAGE      Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott     Dwayne Dunn           
12 YOGI (NZ)              Darren Weir                     Dean Yendall           
13 LADIES FIRST (NZ)      Allan Sharrock                 TBA

Where was Withhold in the weights pre-Geelong Cup? Would he have got in?

I think Withold was in the high 30s - he had to win a race over there.

nakeeta could make it yet.....number 25

Nakeeta would need two to come out based on the ballot order ...and this Lexus Stakes win and you're in.

But to be honest nothing surprises me with these Aussies as the whole system is nothing short of being a circus  - apparently the handicapper can withdraw any horse he wants at any given moment if he thinks you dont deserve to be there, in a hcap  .

You sure about that?

Prince Of Arran is unlikely to get in unless he wins the Lexus/Hotham. He does look to have a good chance of doing just that though. With a clearer run he almost certainly would have finished ahead of Brimham Rocks in the Herbert Power and he's now 2 lbs better off with that rival. The Herbert Power was also his first run since the Pitmen's Derby, so he should come on for it. No surprise to see him vying for favouritism for the Hotham - come on PoA!

talk of ZACADA being thrown out even though 24th on the list...........craaazy system

Thrown out or simply leap-frogged by the Hotham and (possibly) Victoria Derby winners?

article i read went something along the lines of  "the committee may well throw zacada out...as its recent form had been so poor"

Nov 1, 2018 -- 3:25AM, Joel wrote:

You sure about that?

yes i am

SO WHO WINS ?

Nov 2, 2018 -- 7:06AM, Catch Me ifyoucan wrote:

SO WHO WINS ?

The bookie

Four of the 35 top-ranked horses in the Melbourne Cup entries will be re-examined before acceptance time to determine their fitness.

Racing Victoria veterinarians on Friday completed their inspection of the 35 horses with acceptances for the 24-horse field taken at 4.30pm on Saturday.

The horse to be re-tested on Saturday morning are Prize Money (trainer Saeed Bin Suroor), Red Verdon (Ed Dunlop), Lord Fandango (Archie Alexander) and Nakeeta (Iain Jardine).

Red Verdon, who was found to have a bruised heel on Thursday, worked on Friday and passed inspection but will be re-examined as a precaution.

Lord Fandango, who contested Wednesday's Bendigo Cup, presented with lameness in his right hind leg and needs a further examination.

The RV vets will consider the results of precautionary X-rays on the front fetlocks of both Prize Money and Nakeeta as part of their re-inspections.

The Cup entrants who run in Saturday's Lexus Stakes (2500m) at Flemington will be re-examined after the race to re-confirm their suitability as acceptors, as will Thinkin' Big following the Victoria Derby (2500m).

Trainer Darren Weir has also confirmed Tosen Basil will not run in the Melbourne Cup.

Well done Mystic , if you have backed the Prince for both races. He ran a great race this morning  - great for Charlie Fellows - he was jumping up and down in the stands.

Thanks RozelKid. I had a small bet on him on here for the Lexus (poor price - got Rule 4'd), I would have been kicking myself if he'd gone unbacked & won! It's not ideal running 3 days before the big one but at least he's in (as long as the vet lets him run!) and today's win should improve his prospects for HK further down the line.

Nakeeta gets in after two more runners come out -unluckily for me one of those two was Tosen Brasil who was my 3rd choice , the other being Ed Dunlop's Red Vardon.



Final Field


1    BEST SOLUTION (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor)    57.5

2    AVILIUS (GB) (James Cummings)    54.5

3    ACE HIGH      (David Payne)    55.0

4    THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien)    56.5

5    MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) (Ian Williams)    56.0

6    WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) (Chris Waller)    55.5

7    MUNTAHAA (IRE) (John Gosden)    55.5

8    CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) (Yoshito Yahagi)    55.5

9    SOUND CHECK (GER) (Michael Moroney)    55.5

10    ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien)    51.0

11    MARMELO (GB) (Hughie Morrison)    55.0

12    CROSS COUNTER (GB) (Charlie Appleby)    51.0

13    YOUNGSTAR (Chris Waller)    51.5

14    YUCATAN (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien)    54.5

15    VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) (Michael Moroney)    54.0

16    VENTURA STORM (IRE) (Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig)    54.0

17    RED CARDINAL (IRE) (Darren Weir)    54.0

18    AUVRAY (FR) (Richard Freedman)    54.0

19    FINCHE (GB) (Chris Waller)    54.0

20    RUNAWAY (Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott)    52.0 (inc 1.5kg pen)

21    SIR CHARLES ROAD (O’Sullivan and Scott)    53.0

22    ZACADA (NZ) (Baker and Forsman)    53.0

23    NAKEETA (GB) (Iain Jardine)    53.0

24    A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) (Charlie Fellowes)    53.0

Looks as though PoA would've missed out by 2 places if he'd not won the Hotham, so it was the right thing to do. The good news is that he escapes a penalty and stays on 53kg, so has a decent weight pull with the favourite.

Yeah, its looking good for POA - did you hear Fellows talk about the horse after the win ?- interesting comments about them only just sorting out the horses psychological problems after he turned 5yo.

Im still siding with this Magic Circle - 9/1 is still on offer which i think is a couple of points too big.

Hi RozelKid, no I didn't see that - interesting.

Good luck with Magic Circle.

The weather looks  bad  for the next 24s in Melbourne- Meteoearth's satellite images  show that in approx 3 hours from now  its going to start raining and will be getting steadily worse into Tuesday Morning their time  - heavy rain and thunderstorms forcast for the entire day at the track

I cant see how its not going to be soft , it could even be worse as the more accurate meteoearth images show no hold up in the rain.

My Final Selections

Magic Circle, Sound Check, Marmello , Venger Masque -  FC and tri combos

Ive already backed Chestnut Coat - but the rain will most likely scupper any chance he had . I've put Marmello in because i think the rain will be in his favour.

Ive added these two Michael Moroney horses- just have a feeling that they could outrun their odds.

I can see where you're coming from with Sound Check, he should go on the ground if it gets soft and has a nice weight pull with Best Solution on their Grosser Preis Von Berlin form.

Soft ground might not be in Prince Of Arran's favour. It might not suit Cliffs Of Moher either, who I fear most and have had a saver (earlier) on him. Couldn't resist also chucking a few quid at Youngstar who is a potential improver at the trip (although McEvoy has desrted her in favour of Cross Counter).

Track will be watered....

“Victoria Racing Club’s Executive General Manager Racing, Leigh Jordon and Track Manager, Liam O’Keeffe spoke with the Head Forecaster at the Weather Bureau at 5pm today (Monday) and were informed there had been a change to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

“No rain is forecast tonight, so the Track Manager will now apply 5mm of irrigation overnight.

“The rail has been moved out two metres from its true position.”

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast for Melbourne Cup day at Flemington is;

Possible rainfall - Five to 15mm

Chance of any rain – 95%

Melbourne area forecast - Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain, easing to showers during the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon. Light winds tending cooler south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

The Flemington track was rated a good (4) racing surface at 9am on Monday.

going to hold on my bets until I know what’s what...

Its one of them , they will be damned if they do water and it turns up soft with the forecast storms , and  damned if they dont and the rain passes.

I think there is a very good chance that we will see umbrellas from the first race onwards past the feature race , just cant see how they will escape it.

nakeeta 4/1 to be in 1st 10  on here ......5th last year  looks big to me

funny how things workout ....last years ebor... nakeeta beat  magic circle over 5l  and hes now better off at weights

Marmelo won't mind a softer surface, worth a go at 14/1, also Who Shot Thebarman is worth a try at 66/1

Not a race i'm overly interested in (probably due to the time difference) but i've had a W/4TBP bet on the ex-Andre Fabre trained Finche @ 25.0 and 6.0.

Good luck all.

Probably wiser to have left it alone but ended up with Magic Circle and Finche. Finche is the one of the two most likely to be inconvenienced by showers but most of these won't want anything like soft ground.

For the past hour they have been getting heavy rain and thunderstorms, Its 8.25 am there right now i am watching cars drive through what i would describe as streams of water on the roads nearby the course

Flemington track manager Liam O'Keeffe has stated he expects heavy ground by RACE 2    - they have already had 10mm between 8am and 10am their time.... and dont expect any break in the rain all day. He said on radio that they could be getting at least another 20-30mm + as there seems no hold up in the rain and with the forecast thunderstorms there could be arguments of the track being unraceable.

Official going is SOFT , what they call a grade 5.

he has just said they expect 10mm per hour for the next 4 hours -

Official - now a Grade 6 , its just changed again.

now officially HEAVY - grade 8.

I'll be backing the horse in gumboots

and they watered

Yeah because if it didnt rain all the overseas people would crack the sh1ts

first race report

Source: Racenet.com.au

Winning jockey Mark Zahra said the conditions were “pretty hard going”, partnering the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained Bella Rosa to victory in the Group III Bumble Stakes (1000m).

Straight after the race stewards downgraded the track to a heavy (8) but the surface is expected to to deteriorate further as rain continues to fall.

“It’s pretty hard going out there, my goggles are full of water and so are my boots,” Zahra said.

“A lot of surface water, easily a heavy (8) now and you’d think it will be a heavy (10) by the time the Cup comes around. You’d usually call them off but not today.”

Other jockeys that rode in the race reported.

Brett Prebble - They won’t be whinging it’s too hard. It’s genuine slow and heavy’s not too far away. Subzeroish.

Beau Mertens – It’s a bit crazy. They were the craziest conditions I’ve ridden in. Couldn’t see two metres in front of myself but lucky I’m done for the day and can go home now.

Damien Oliver – There’s a fair bit of surface water out there. I had trouble seeing. I’ve ridden in some pretty horrendous conditions and it’s pretty ordinary out there but I think once the water has a chance to get away it shouldn’t be too bad.

Damian Oliver

He is right though, Flemington has very good drainage

track upgraded from 8  to 7 i.e HEAVY to SOFT

Huge runs from PoA and Marmelo, but what a finish from Cross Counter - and what a year for Godolphin & Appleby! Congrats to connections & any backers.

Sad news about Cliffs Of Moher.

Yep pretty sad for the team.

Thought POA was tremendous backing up so soon. Winner could’ve carried top weight and still run a place imo

Feel for Marmello...no chance vs CC at those weights.

As for Finche...Champion Hurdle dream lives on lol

Don't know quite what to make of Finche. For more than 3/4 the of race I thought he was going to win but at the business end he hasn't picked up as well as the other three. Too prominent a trip, ground or maybe just not good enough. Would like to see him back on a quicker surface. That should answer some of those questions.

Absolutely dire effort from Magic Circle. Looked very slow and never competitive. Bookmakers no doubt delighted that he was never going to make even the extended places. I don't think he really wants soft but it was less of an excuse for him than many of the others. At least it saved Koukash making a fool of himself.

Just read that Magic Circle broke a blood vessel. That might explain things although I am never too sure with this excuse. For instance if he broke a blood vessel after the line would that have affected his performance throughout the race? Jock was clearly unaware of anything when making his post race comment.

I still cant work out if they have gone too slow or  what condition the ground was

Absolutely brilliant ride by McEvoy aboard  Cross Counter.

Congrats on the place Mystic, for a moment there i thought you had it

Thanks RozelKid. I snaffled a small e/w bet @ 33/1 straight after his Hotham win (someone must have been asleep at their keyboard!), but my main interest was win-only on here at 100+. It was an enjoyable ride all the same!

You fell asleep, lol. Well at least you woke up to not so disappointing news.

Prince Of Arran runs in the HK Vase - Aussie Jock Michael Walker reports that he keeps the ride.