Horse Antepost
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Half the battle this year will be getting into the race, such is the strength in depth of the entries. Many of those on the 'fringes' will be looking to improve their chances of getting in with a good run in a trial.
One such horse is Charlie Fellowes' stable star Prince Of Arran. I've already had a few quid on him on here at fancy prices and so was hoping for a good run in today's Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes to enhance his prospects. He didn't disappoint, given a sympathetic ride and meeting trouble in the straight over an inadequate trip before running on well into a good 3rd. Hopefully that'll be enough to get him in, and if he does then the extra half mile will be very much to his advantage.
If you get a chance to watch today's race then take it, and watch it from the start. Yucatan (yet another APOB star) was drawn widest and circled the whole field Arazi-style before quickening away to win very impressively. He's even further down the weights than Prince Of Arran, so probably needed to win to get in but I'm not convinced that this son of Six Perfections will improve for going another half mile.
One such horse is Charlie Fellowes' stable star Prince Of Arran. I've already had a few quid on him on here at fancy prices and so was hoping for a good run in today's Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes to enhance his prospects. He didn't disappoint, given a sympathetic ride and meeting trouble in the straight over an inadequate trip before running on well into a good 3rd. Hopefully that'll be enough to get him in, and if he does then the extra half mile will be very much to his advantage.
If you get a chance to watch today's race then take it, and watch it from the start. Yucatan (yet another APOB star) was drawn widest and circled the whole field Arazi-style before quickening away to win very impressively. He's even further down the weights than Prince Of Arran, so probably needed to win to get in but I'm not convinced that this son of Six Perfections will improve for going another half mile.
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Im really into this race and the lead up qualifying races.
I cant get away from Marwan Koukash's Magic Circle at best price 12/1 - he was just so impressive on his last 2 starts that its hard to see the Ian Williams trained 6yo coming out of the places if he is given a good trip. Of the others im interested in are three Japanese bred horses , one trained by Aussie Darran Weir... Tosen Brasil 33/1 , Sole Impact 200/1 trained by Hirofumi Toda , and Chestnut Coat 25/1 trained by Yoshito Yahagi The last two actually run in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup and i have a feeling that this race on Saturday morning might have actually been the main race target for these Japanese trained horses Chestnut Coat 25/1, Sole Impact 66/1 - I wouldn't be surprised if they had a forecast like they did in the 2006 Melbourne Cup and the 2011 Dubai World Cup. Chestnut is already guaranteed a place as is my 2nd choice for the Melbourne cup, whereas i think Sole Impact needs to win this Saturday or go close ...im not totally sure if you only get a weight penalty if you win these qualifying races or if you get placed. |
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Hi RozelKid,
My earlier assumption that Prince Of Arran's good 3rd in the Herbert Power would enhance his prospects of getting in the Melbourne Cup was wrong, I now believe that only race winners pick-up weight penalties. He'd already passed the ballot clause (by placing in a Group race) and will only get in if his weight is sufficiently high enough in the handicap, which it might not be. He can still guarantee a place by either winning one of the remaining ballot-exempt races (Caulfield Cup - not entered, Cox Plate - trip too short, Lexus - too close to the big race) OR by winning another race (eg. Geelong Cup) and picking up a sufficient weight penalty to push him up the handicap (a la Yucatan). Penalties seem to be at the discretion of the Aussie handicapper, but I don't think he'd need to go up by much to guarantee his place. Good luck with your Japanese horses. I think the Caulfield Cup has had a big prize money injection this year, so deservedly ought to be a target in its own right. |
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The way they play smoke and mirrors over the "order of entry lists" comes across as a bit of a farce.
To be honest it pretty disgusting , im still trying to get my head around it. |
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Really like Magic Circle and Withhold for this but worried Withhold will now have to have a prep run to try & get into the race, and for this to spoil his preparation. Godolphin had an array of interesting runners but sorry to read Hamada fatally injured and Cross Counter has had a setback. I thought Best Solution might be their best chance but I'm assuming he's unlikely to run - doesn't he run in the Caulfield Cup instead? Gosden's Muntahaa another interesting contender imho assuming he turns up.
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CAULFIELD CUP FIELD - Saturday 20th - 6:00 am
1. Best Solution J: PAT COSGRAVE T: SAEED BIN SUROOR W: 57.5KG Best Odds: $15 COMMENT: He is a relatively lightly raced rock hard stayer from the Saeed Bin Suroor camp. He comes into the Caulfield Cup after back to back wins in some strong overseas races. He will love the 2400m and can handle a dry or rain affected track. A very versatile horse who will be hard to beat. 2. The Cliffsofmoher J: HUGH BOWMAN T: AIDAN O'BRIEN W: 56.5KG Best Odds: $7.00 COMMENT: Finished off with the fastest sectionals in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday and looks primed to run a very good 2400m in the Caulfield Cup. Has strong overseas form and the Internationals again look very hard to beat in the majors this year. Should go close. 3. Chestnut Coat J: YUGA KAWADA T: YOSHITO YAHAGI W: 55.5KG Best Odds: $18 COMMENT: A Japanese raider so he has to be respected in this. His last two starts have been very good in strong overseas races. Having his first up run in Australia and on his overseas form will probably need a bit further than the 2400m. Watch for a strong finish and a better run in the Melbourne Cup. 4. Jon Snow J: DAMIAN LANE T: MURRAY BAKER & ANDREW FORSMAN W: 55.5KG Best Odds: $34 COMMENT: Thought his three runs this time in have had a lot of merit without really pressing for a win. Comes through the Turnbull which should be a good form race into the Caulfield Cup but he will likely need it to be wet to be winning. 5. Sound Check J: JORDAN CHILDS T: MICHAEL MORONEY W: 55.5KG Best Odds: $21 COMMENT: A German galloper so he has to be respected in this as German horses have always ran well in Australia. He probably was a little unlucky at his last two starts and he is pretty well weighted in this. He looks a very good horse and needs to be included. Danger 6. Ace High J: DAMIEN OLIVER T: DAVID PAYNE W: 55KG Best Odds: $13 COMMENT: Returned to winning form in the Hill Stakes last start which was good to see after knocking on the door for some time. Goes into the Caulfield Cup rock hard fit and we know he will run a strong 2400m. Yet to race at Caulfield which is a bit of a query as is the Hill Stakes form but he must be included unless it is a rain affected track. 7. The Taj Mahal J: JAMES MCDONALD T: LIAM HOWLEY W: 55KG Best Odds: $15 COMMENT: Was a strong winner of the JRA Cup last start but this looks a lot tougher on paper. Will likely be one of the leaders and will make his own luck and with the Caulfield track favouring leaders lately he could be a knock out hope. 8. Duretto J: DWAYNE DUNN T: ANDREW BALDING W: 54.5KG Best Odds: $21 COMMENT: Comes into the Caulfield Cup with okay International form. He won pretty impressively last start although the form from that race doesn't look too exciting. He is weighted well in this and will run a good 2400m but i am happy to risk in a quality addition of the race. 9. Red Verdon J: ZAC PURTON T: ED DUNLOP W: 54KG Best Odds: $19 COMMENT: Has good form from overseas although i think some of the other International raiders look stronger. The 2400m should be the perfect distance for him so a win would not surprise so he should be added to multiples although i think there are a handful of others that are stronger. Each way claims 10. Vengeur Masque J: PATRICK MOLONEY T: MICHAEL MORONEY W: 54KG Best Odds: $126.00 COMMENT: Got back in The Bart Cummings and never really fired a shot. Will likely be looking for further so i can't see him figuring in this. Pass 11. Ventura Storm J: REGAN BAYLISS T: DAVID & B HAYES & T DABERNIG W: 54KG Best Odds: $34 COMMENT: Is yet to win in Australia after plenty of racing so there is a massive query around his ability to win a race like this however he has been racing well this preparation and should be included in the multiples. 12. Mighty Boss J: TIM CLARK T: MICK PRICE W: 53.5KG Best Odds: $101 COMMENT: Won the Caulfield Guineas at big odds last year but hasn't really gone close in his last six starts so he doesn't come into the race in great form. Happy to leave out. 13. Homesman J: BEN MELHAM T: LIAM HOWLEY W: 53KG Best Odds: $12 COMMENT: He was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday after some very good runs at WFA. He drops a lot of weight in this and he will likely take up the running and with some easy sectionals i think he could give a massive sight. Keep safe 14. Kings Will Dream J: CRAIG WILLIAMS T: DARREN WEIR W: 53KG Best Odds: $5.50 COMMENT: Topped the Caulfield Cup market for a long time until his run in the Turnbull Stakes which was a little disappointing to the eye. Thought it was better than what it looked and he gets a good drop in weight in this. His runs before thr Turnbull all suggested he was going to be very hard to beat in this and i still think he will. One of the big dangers. 15. Sole Impact J: RYUSEI SAKAI (A) T: HIROFUMI TODA W: 53KG Best Odds: $81 COMMENT: Being a Japanese horse you have to respect him in the race although he is first up in five months so on that i am happy to risk him here. Will need the run so look out for him wherever he goes next. 16. Gallic Chieftain J: TBC T: DARREN WEIR W: 52.5KG Best Odds: $81 COMMENT: Thought his run in the JRA Plate was good two starts ago but his Herbert Power run suggests it would take a lot of things to go right for him to win this. Prefer to back him in country cups. 17. Night's Watch J: BEN ALLEN (A) T: DARREN WEIR W: 52KG Best Odds: $11 COMMENT: Had been racing very well until what was probably a disappointing run in G1 company in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday. He drops a lot of weight on that run but im not sure he has the class to win a major such as the Caulfield Cup. Prefer him in G2/G3 class. 18. Youngstar J: KERRIN MCEVOY T: CHRIS WALLER W: 51.5KG Best Odds: $5.50 COMMENT: Outside of Winx she put in the best run in the Turnbull Stakes and arguably the meeting at Flemington that day. Her two starts before that throughout this preparation have both been very good and she is ticking along nicely for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday and with only 51kg on her back she is going to be very hard to hold out. The one to beat 19. Patrick Erin (E1) J: COREY BROWN T: CHRIS WALLER W: 52KG Best Odds: $81 COMMENT: Emergency 20. Jaameh (E2) J: CORY PARISH T: DAVID & B HAYES & T DABERNIG W: 50KG Best Odds: $67 COMMENT: Emergency |
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2 days ago Ed Dunlops Red Vardon was number 20 needed 2 to come out to grantee a start , by acceptance stage 9 of the 18 runners were pulled out
 . Imagine all those Aussie punters doing their nuts - this is one of their top group 1 races of the year and two days before the race half the field dont even declare.The Red Verdon camp were apprehensive about getting a run earlier this week, yet made the field at number nine and Robin Trevor Jones, Dunlop's travelling head lad, said: "We're a long way up, which is quite astounding, but there you go – that's Australian racing. "One minute you're not getting in the next minute you're in at nine. So it's all systems go now, fingers crossed for a favourable draw tomorrow." Imagine the EBOR Hcap with half the field being withdrawn 2 days before the race - its total bollocks imo. |
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4 days before race, not 2 - apparently there has been future wagering on this race since September 2nd - jeez ...what a bloodbath.
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How good are Aussie stayers in the context of global racing?
Back in the day I was an avid follower of Nick Mordin (his 'Betting For A Living' is required reading) and he would often talk about racehorse 'populations', espousing the theory that racehorses from different countries generally exhibited different strengths (Aussies = sprinters, French = milers, GB/IRE = middle distances etc). That was a good few years ago and perhaps times have changed and populations have shifted, but it will be interesting to see how the locals fare against the European invaders in the Caulfield Cup. That said, some of the Aussies seem to be quite stoutly bred these day. For example, High Chaparral sired Youngstar and Ace High - 2 of the leading contenders for the CC. No shock to see the former as favourite given her recent 2nd to the wonder mare, but I can't help but be drawn to Ace High who is unexposed at the trip (got mugged in the Australian Derby) and looks a real scrapper. He has his fair share of weight, but I love his profile and have availed myself of a few quid @ 10/1. |
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Wind, Did you see Yucatan win last week in that hcap?..... it was embarrassing for the Aussies, jockey literally pulled him up across the line.
Every race is different and anything can happen .....this weeks forfeit stage is just a sign of what a joke Aussie racing is. Something isn't right with their hcapper .....but i cant put my finger on it.  |
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Yes, I watched Yucatan (see OP). TBH, I don't think the handicapper was to blame for that, the horse seems to have found outrageous improvement - that back straight move was eye-catching!
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yeah sorry , i see in OP.
I dont agree Mystic, with regards to the handicapper .....Tbh i think their racing is all to **** - i think they have many horses , which we would rate as hcappers , listed or potentially G3 , as their top G2 or G1 Horses. |
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I think that goes back to the racehorse 'populations' idea. If the Aussie thoroughbred population is biased towards speed then their stayers are likely to come up short when racing against horses from a population biased towards stamina (eg. GB/IRE). How many Aussie horses have come over for the Ascot Gold Cup compared to the Kings Stand?
The top staying races in Australia will inevitably be contested by the best stayers in Australia. That does not guarantee that they're as good as stayers from elsewhere. I guess your issue is with how the best Aussie stayers are rated. It's difficult to tie-in ratings across hemispheres - there simply isn't enough cross-hemisphere competition. So I guess the handicapper assumes a bell-curve of ability, with (say) the top 5% of Aussie stayers being rated 100+, he wouldn't be too popular if he gave the best stayer in Australia a rating of 98. |
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...and the situation is confused further by an Australian tendency to run the same horse over a variety of distances. Take Ace High as and example, this year alone he's raced at 6f, 7f, 8f, 10f & 12f ! How often is that sort of schedule adopted for decent horses in the UK? This helps to muddy that ratings waters as a horse may achieve an internationally top-class rating at a shorter distance and still be competitive at a longer distance when racing against other non-stayers.
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You would have thought it would have been sorted out by now.....especially with Godolphin and Coolmore having a presence there for many years.
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We'll have a better idea after the Caulfield Cup on Saturday, especially if the Brits dominate the finish.
Although I've backed Ace High, who I see as a genuine 12f horse, I've also had a saver on The Cliffsofmoher. He could be well handicapped on his Derby 2nd & Eclipse 3rd (look at the horses he finished ahead of). He was staying-on nicely in The Ladbroke (following a break since The Eclipse) and is likely to strip fitter and appreciate stepping up to 12f. He is following a similar patch to Johannes Vermeer last year. |
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https://www.racing.com/form/2018-10-24/bet365-geelong/race/8
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Could be a repeat of the Pitmen's Derby (different result though please)!
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Well, GB/IRE horses (either current or ex) dominated the Caulfield Cup today. Of the 5 AUS/NZ bred horses in the race only Youngstar ran with credit in 7th, the other 4 filled the last 4 places.
Best Solution put up a great battling performance under a good ride from a wide draw. He'll probably pick up a penalty for that, which will make life tougher. Red Verdon didn't get much luck in running and is better than the bare form, The Cliffsofmoher was the eye-catcher in 3rd imo. |
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Was a good performance by Best Solution ..especially with the weight he was giving all of them.
The Japanese were disappointing , therefore a bit lighter in the pocket |
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The Geelong Cup Wednesday 24th October
Time: 6.00 AM Distance: 2400m final entries 1 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 2 ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (IRE) Chris Waller Corey Brown 3 WITHHOLD (GB) Roger Charlton Kerrin McEvoy 4 WALL OF FIRE (IRE) Ciaron Maher Mark Zahra 5 ZACADA (NZ) Baker & Forsman Damian Lane 6 CASTERTON (IRE) Chris Waller Michael Walker 7 MIDTERM (GB) Liam Howley Ben Melham 8 NORTHWEST PASSAGE Waterhouse Dwayne Dunn 9 YOGI (NZ) Darren Weir 10 HARIPOUR (IRE) Darren Weir 11 RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse Stephen Baster 12 GUARDINI (FR) Darren Weir 13 MASTER ZEPHYR (GB) Darren Weir 14 CHEQUERED FLAG (NZ) Darren Weir 15 WHEAL LEISURE A Alexander Jye McNeil 16 BARRY THE BAPTIST Paul A Jones |
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Prince Of Arran looks to be heading for the Lexus instead.
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Bye Bye Withold - apparently bled from both Nostrils - thats him out the big race. The winner RUNAWAY has no chance in the Melbourne Cup , if he gets in ...which he shouldn't.
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Finche - Champion Hurdle 2020
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I did suggest Finche would make a nice hurdler after he won his maiden.
Presumably, the bookmakers are offering big prices because he won't get in? He is 27 so three would have to come out? |
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Finche looked like a shire horse running down the straight - a beast of a horse. lol
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Hurdlers do okay here...Vintage Crop 6th in the Champion Hurdle, Efficient popped a few to warm for Purple Moon (failed Hurdler)...Max Dynamite ran well a couple of times.
I’m sure they’re others but this is off the top of my head. Only thing that wowed me so far is Yucatan but a son of Six Perfections winning this? Got to be something else in here to nibble at. Wouldn’t mind seeing Best Solution winning. He seems a hardier type this season and would be awesome for SBS. He’s been trying forever to win this. Anyways will decide after the breeders cup is over. |
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A real shame about Withhold. Big call to aim him at the MC after his Northumberland Plate win. It was a bit absurd he had to try and run well in the Geelong Cup for the sake of trying to get in the race. Surely they should have some special status for foreign raiders when travelling a horse to the other side of the world. Especially a horse with a profile like his as a Ces + Northumberland Plate winner.
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It ts a highly contested hcap which looks to be getting classier over the years
What does smell , about their handicapping system and several racing club authorities, is that the entries and races are fully controlled by seemingly unaccountable and inconsistent racing club executives. For example, a horse called "Trap For Fools" was ordered to be withdrawn from the Coongy Cup on the 20th at Caulfield , due to an administrative error , but was due to run in the Cox Plate this weekend - the stewards have since turned around and again ordered the horse not to run . "The committee felt his form didn't warrant a run and the field was narrowed to eight starters," Moonee Valley chairman Don Casboult said on Trap For Fools. Now just imagine if the BHA or Ascot Racecourse turned around and exercised powers like this - The Czech Republic-trained Subway Dancer , who had never even won a G2 race in Europe , was allowed to run in one of the best G1 races in the world - last time that horse won a race was a poor G3 in 2016 - do you see Ascot racecourse say No - you cant run because we dont think you are good enough |
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Source: justhorseracing.com.au
Horse Sex Age Trainer Weight Penalty 1 BEST SOLUTION (IRE) H 5 Saeed Bin Suroor 57.5kg 2 AVILIUS (GB) G 5 James Cummings 54.5kg 1.5kg 3 ACE HIGH H 4 David Payne 55kg 4 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER H 5 Aidan O’Brien 56.5kg 5 MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) G 7 Ian Williams 56kg 6 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN G 10 Chris Waller 55.5kg 7 TOSEN BASIL (JPN) H 7 Darren Weir 55.5kg 8 MUNTAHAA (IRE) G 6 John Gosden 55.5kg 9 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) H 5 Yoshito Yahagi 55.5kg 10 SOUND (GER) H 6 Michael Moroney 55.5kg 11 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) H 4 Aidan O’Brien 51kg 12 MARMELO (GB) H 6 Hughie Morrison 55kg 13 CROSS COUNTER (GB) G 4 Charlie Appleby 51kg 14 YOUNGSTAR M 4 Chris Waller 51.5kg 15 YUCATAN IRE (IRE) H 5 Aidan O’Brien 54.5kg 2.5kg 16 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) G 7 Michael Moroney 54kg 17 VENTURA STORM (IRE) G 6 David & B Hayes 54kg 18 RED CARDINAL (IRE) G 7 Darren Weir 54kg 19 AUVRAY (FR) G 8 Richard Freedman 54kg 20 RED VERDON (USA) H 6 Ed Dunlop 54kg 21 FINCHE (GB) H 5 Chris Waller 22 54kg 22 RUNAWAY R 4 Gai Waterhouse & Bott 52kg 1.5kg 23 ZACADA (NZ) G 6 Murray Baker & Forsman 53kg 24**Hotham Handicap Winner** Comments: Duretto who currently sits at 15th in Order Of Entry is under an injury cloud and with eight days until the race we have excluded him from the Likely Field. If he has a quick recovery which we think is unlikely he may line-up in the field |
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Field for the Hotham, aka Lexus Stakes - 3rd November
Win and You're in the Cup No Horse Trainer Jockey 1 SOLE IMPACT (JPN) Hirofumi Toda Hugh Bowman 2 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 3 PATRICK ERIN (NZ) Chris Waller Corey Brown 4 SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE) Darren Weir Craig Williams 5 TALLY James Cummings Tim Clark 6 BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) Chris Waller James McDonald 7 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) Darren Weir Damian Lane 8 RUNAWAY Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Stephen Baster 9 RISING RED (NZ) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Regan Bayliss 10 JAAMEH (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Mark Zahra 11 NORTHWEST PASSAGE Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Dwayne Dunn 12 YOGI (NZ) Darren Weir Dean Yendall 13 LADIES FIRST (NZ) Allan Sharrock TBA |
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Where was Withhold in the weights pre-Geelong Cup? Would he have got in?
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I think Withold was in the high 30s - he had to win a race over there.
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nakeeta could make it yet.....number 25
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Nakeeta would need two to come out based on the ballot order ...and this Lexus Stakes win and you're in.
But to be honest nothing surprises me with these Aussies as the whole system is nothing short of being a circus - apparently the handicapper can withdraw any horse he wants at any given moment if he thinks you dont deserve to be there, in a hcap .  |
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You sure about that?
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Prince Of Arran is unlikely to get in unless he wins the Lexus/Hotham. He does look to have a good chance of doing just that though. With a clearer run he almost certainly would have finished ahead of Brimham Rocks in the Herbert Power and he's now 2 lbs better off with that rival. The Herbert Power was also his first run since the Pitmen's Derby, so he should come on for it. No surprise to see him vying for favouritism for the Hotham - come on PoA!
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talk of ZACADA being thrown out even though 24th on the list...........craaazy system
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Thrown out or simply leap-frogged by the Hotham and (possibly) Victoria Derby winners?
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article i read went something along the lines of "the committee may well throw zacada out...as its recent form had been so poor"
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