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Meat Loaf
09 Sep 18 11:17
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Date Joined: 22 May 09
| Topic/replies: 3,394 | Blogger: Meat Loaf's blog
My favourite handicap of the year.

Any early fancies? Anybody know when we can expect a market? We have a Hennessy market but can't see one for this?

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Replies: 118
By:
Leonardo
When: 09 Sep 18 12:24
Early fancy Mister Whitaker- goes on any ground
By:
dunlaying
When: 09 Sep 18 17:10
Holbrook Park , versatile type with regards to ground and trip . Has gone well fresh in the past and runs well for a claimer. A horse on the up and pretty well treated on 129 . If entered he might just scrape in .
By:
dunlaying
When: 09 Sep 18 17:10
It gets harder by the day to post on here .
By:
unclepuncle
When: 09 Sep 18 18:56
Rather Be would be my early fancy.
By:
deepingfox
When: 09 Sep 18 19:49
Leonardo, I am with you, at this stage, with MR  WHITAKER.
By:
pmt
When: 18 Sep 18 09:45
Baron Alco is a likely runner in this after a year off with a tendon injury.He led for the last mile and a half in the 2017 Brown and Merry at the festival before beaten only  by Road to Respect who was running off 145.Likely to lead them into the last fence again now he is fully recovered.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Sep 18 17:18
Was this race named The Kennedy Construction Cup in the old days? If so, it signalled the beginning of The National Hunt season proper to me, and the cavalries of the Dickinson, Walwyn, Winter, Nicholson, Forster and Pitman charges; those were the memorable day!
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 18 Sep 18 18:27
When do we usually get a market for this race?
By:
Autocue
When: 20 Sep 18 19:21
It was the Mackeson back in the day. Some of us still call it that.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Sep 18 19:52
Of course The Mackeson, thanks. Such a long time ago.
By:
duffy
When: 21 Sep 18 15:45
Half Free...Bradbury Star...MackesonLove...some great horses have won this race.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 29 Sep 18 09:00
Pathetic that no bookie has priced this up. When paddy power sponsored the race I'm sure they had markets from early September.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 29 Sep 18 11:04
Dublin Flyer can find no more.... oh yes he can!

One my all time favourite moments in racing that.
By:
nocturnal
When: 29 Sep 18 19:51
Very keen ML.......I suspect you fancy one or two Wink

No idea if he gets an entry,a horse that impressed me in last years renewal....

Romain De Senam.....rated 145 last year,the ground went against him in the run up to the race.Only 5 at the time , he travelled well,despite clouting one heading out onto the 2nd circuit.

With another year on his back,granted less testing ground,interested to see where he is entered.

Down to 139,decent record fresh,no surprise if that mark under estimates his ability.
By:
pmt
When: 30 Sep 18 12:11
entries close on october 30th, weights published 8th november,
By:
nocturnal
When: 30 Sep 18 13:38
Many Thanks for the update PMT

What a fine prospect you have there......watching  that Browne Advisory back,struck me how game he was when headed between the last two fences.

Only beaten by a group horse in a handicap,the winner is now rated 165,putting up a fine display in this years Blue Riband,RTR is only 7yr old himself,he may well have more to come,especially on a sounder surface.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.....the time of that Browne Advisory was 0.7 secs quicker than the Ryanair run an hour earlier,both looked to be run at a decent gallop.

Presumably he,s back in work,with all roads leading to mid November,will he have a prep?

Finally another question if I may........What was the feeling like watching him lead the field coming round the final bend at the Festival........and what was the heart rate ?

Wish you best of luck with him,he,s in good hands.
By:
pmt
When: 30 Sep 18 14:42
heart rate was off the charts. he has been back in work since June. Now ready for a prep run probably at Chepstow on 14/10 as he is too high for most other races.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 30 Sep 18 17:00
pmt what do you see as your main dangers in the race?
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 30 Sep 18 17:00
pmt what do you see as your main dangers in the race?
By:
pmt
When: 30 Sep 18 17:09
dont know. there will be some second season chasers who have improved . a lot of French horses take a season before they are at their best.
By:
Hanx
When: 02 Oct 18 12:12
Obviously last season's form is a good place to start with unravelling this one, but it may pay to checkout the 0-140 Handicap Chase won by Javert at Uttoxeter on 23rd September.

Obviously the ground may well be different come mid-November, but this was a fast-run race, with the winner coming back from a 2 year-plus layoff. He was rated 140 going into the race and if he's put away until the Mackeson (yeah, I know - old skool, me) then'the bounce' shouldn't be a factor.

Perhaps of greater interest is Crievhill in second, given connection (Twiston-Davies) and his record in the Cheltenham race. Unexposed 6-y-o stayed on late.

Worth a look on the TV replays?
By:
nocturnal
When: 03 Oct 18 21:09
Definately worth a look Hanx.

The time confuses me a little,new course record,yet almost 3 seconds outside standard if the RP is to believed,is there a typo somewhere or am I missing something?

Gun to head,I would take out the 2nd and 4th from the race,both given interesting rides over the last few fences,neither pilot instil any confidence this end.

NTD no doubt will have his fair share entries,last years winner very ground dependant, Foxtail Hill might be in there too,never quite worked him out,early doors might be the time to catch him,dropped to a decent looking mark.
By:
pmt
When: 05 Oct 18 12:12
the time was 3 seconds faster than the same race in 2017, which was run on slightly slower ground.Looking at the only other chase run at the meeting this year Javert ran about 12 seconds faster , taking into account the changed distance but the winner of the other chase was only rated 103 which accounts for most of the difference. It is curious that the RP gives the time as both a course record and above average time but they did exactly the same in the 2017 race so i wouldnt give it much credence.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 14 Oct 18 17:17
Baron Alco looked tailor made for this race.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 14 Oct 18 20:58
Interesting discussion regarding standard time vs new course record. Standard times are supposed to represent the hypothetical time that a horse of a certain quality carrying a certain weight would be expected to clock in a true run race on certain ground. On the flat, I believe the parameters are a 100-rated horse carrying 9st 0lbs on Good ground, I don't recall the parameters over jumps.

For a race to be run slower than standard yet still a course record doesn't make much sense and would (to me) suggest 1 of 2 scenarios:
1) All previous races over the C&D have been contested by poor horses (unlikely), or
2) A mistake has been made.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 16 Oct 18 20:16
The reason why I wanted a market was I knew Twiston Davies plan was to aim Ballyandy at this race since January.

Hopefully doesn't win by too far tomorrow at Wetherby to protect its 140 mark.

Was hoping for bigger but 20/1 will do.
By:
sparkygayle
When: 17 Oct 18 19:03
Mark protected Meat Loaf
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 18 Oct 18 18:19
Yes may well be dropped to 138 - lovely.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 19 Oct 18 21:29
It could well be a plan, you never know.
By:
pmt
When: 25 Oct 18 11:40
update on my sep 18 post.Baron Alco is being trained for this and will run barring injury. Has been put back to his 146 mark that he ran off in the Brown Advisory. His Chepstow run , beaten a head by Charbel was very satisfactory and we fancy his chances.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 26 Oct 18 10:24
Thanks for that. Classic 'Likeable Sort,' as he ever run a bad race.
  Carrying my money so I hope he wins for you.
By:
nocturnal
When: 28 Oct 18 13:32
Ballyandy 137......Does the handicapper drink in the cotswolds?

That must be music to your ears ML,hope to see him in entries later this week.

Baron Alco 146.......Up 4lbs for his chepstow run.

Criminal really,off the best part of 18 months with injury,the horse looked keen as mustard,ran his heart out,does not win the race,yet incurs a 4 lb penalty.Charbel goes up 5 lb,the third horse gets dropped a 1 lb.

Everything that is wrong with the system to these eyes,surely in a sport where we should be encouraging owners / trainers to let their horses run on merit,this must have the complete opposite effect ?

What if Baron Alco had been dropped say 3 lb,would this make a difference to handicapping long term,effectively rewarding connections rather than penalising them ?

Sure plenty will have an opinion here,be good to hear them.

Echo Souldancer post....PMT has been a breath of fresh air here,lets hope they all make it,always a cracking race.

One final thought PMT......would you consider Aintree fences?,no need to answer just yet,love to see this lad in the Topham,he does remind me of Ultragold in many ways,just a thought.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 29 Oct 18 11:32
Can't argue with the handicapper re. Baron Alco. Looking at Chepstow race, nothing between 1st and 2nd healthy gap to the third. Factor in his 2nd at Chelt to Road To Respect off 146, would have gone up at least 3lb to 149 for that.

Handicapper had dropped him 7lb for not running so after Chepstow puts him back up 4lb, still 3lb lower than after Chelt. Think he's entitled to now he knows Baron Alco is fit and well.
Baron Alco travelled well at Chepstow and looked the winner all day long, jumped a bit sticky till warming up. Looks sure to improve for the run and 4lb rise seems justified.
By:
pmt
When: 29 Oct 18 11:38
thanks nocturnal. Yes we have thought of the Topham and its probably on the agenda this season.In fact Gary has the Grand national in mind for him in a couple of seasons time. We will try him at 3 miles this season, maybe in the Betbright (sorry Racing Post chase). I think the handicapper was spot on raising him 4lbs for Chepstow. I was a handicapper myself and would have given him 4lbs too. You have to be fair to every horse in the race and give them all an equal chance if they run to their best form. he was dropped 6 lbs from the mark he was given after finishing 2nd to Road to respect who was getting weight from us. That looks like 150 form now so to get dropped to 142 was a gift.

Souldancer you are spot on. He went up 2lbs not 3lb which would have been more if the handicapper knew about Road to Respects next two runs.
By:
nocturnal
When: 29 Oct 18 22:10
Thanks both.....

Well reasoned Souldancer,put like that it makes sense,I see both your points regarding his potential mark after the cheltenham run.That long break does muddy the water,not the best example I could have chosen.

Barring any hold ups,with that fine run under his belt,just how much does have in the locker ?

That 150 looks a little lenient now,if we use RTR as a guide,all part of the jigsaw.

Maybe after 5 day decs we should have a mythical handicap.....that might be interesting Shocked
By:
deepingfox
When: 30 Oct 18 14:35
Does anyone know when the initial entries for the Bet Victor Gold Cup (and the Greatwood Hurdle) are announced?

I thought it was Tuesday or Wednesday this week.
By:
pmt
When: 30 Oct 18 17:03
the entries were made by 12 today.weights published nov 8th
By:
deepingfox
When: 30 Oct 18 17:15
Excellent pmt, thanks.
Should be up on the Racing Post site shortly then.
The weights for UK runners are known, Just the Irish to assess, I presume.
By:
pmt
When: 30 Oct 18 17:20
no, the weights are based on races run by saturday november 4th, 4lb penalty thereafter
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