National Hunt 18/19 Big Races Thread

Drumcliff  - Galway Plate - 14/1 general.

Hello guys, and good luck for the season

Galway Plate
Calino D’Airy 3pts Win 12’s (Various)

Valseur Lido 18’s
Rock The World 66’s
Both 0.5pts ew (Sky)

Galway Hurdle
Le Richebourg 11-1
Project Bluebook
Both 1pt Win Various

The Game Changer 0.7pts ew 40’s (Sky)

Albert Bartlett - Stay Humble 0.7 pts ew 50’s (B365)

Kerry National
Vieux Morvan 1pt Win 12’s
All Hell Let Loose 0.7pts ew 5 Places 40’s
Various

Not being a great record keeper......had a delve into my figures from last season.

Did this back in 2016,only then it was mid-season,with some very humbling results,it was a real eyeopener.

It,s time consuming and tedious,but I hope useful for the coming season.

2017/2018

116.5 pts staked     Profit 98 pts

165 Bets give or take.

Returns = 19     Around 9% strike rate

17 winners       2 place returns

2 placed horses 66/1 and 40/1

Winners

5 in single figures,shortest price 5/1

12 in double figures,longest price 50/1

Two returns,one place / one winner from Irish racing.

12 winners left handed tracks / 5 winners right handed tracks.

6 winners came from chetenham,4 at ascot,2 at chepstow,the rest single winners at various tracks.

Analysis

Not surprised at the cheltenham figure,the early season meetings always appeal,and the festival is a constant every March,truly wonderful setting for NH racing.

Ascot would not be a favourite,I have always favoured left handed tracks,something I looked into a little last season.I,m not sure of the ratio between left / right handed tracks in uk,but my own view is far fewer horses produce their best performances going right handed.

Chepstow is another course I like,proper fences,any jumping mistakes here are normally punnnished,very different in the depths of winter,where heavy ground is common place.

Avoiding the January blues........A losing month as far back as my time on the NH Thread started.Never really found the reason why,discussed some of the bigger stables vaccinating early new year,that may be a factor,but generally results are poor.Cut back markedly last season,raz de maree winning the re-scheduled national helped,but it remains a time to be very cautious.

Festival results........A huge factor in the season as a whole.Cheltenham was a bonus last season,Aintree was a washout apart from Ultragold in the Topham.Stakes can vary for me,theres a ying and yang both sides,the hits can be big,but so are the losses,something I took into account before both meetings,treading a little lighter than previous seasons.

Staking.........The 2016 season saw 50 bets at 0.5pt ew.......all beaten.....a 100% record that will take some beating.Last season saw plenty of 0.5pt bets, but very few were EW.The majority of winners were single selections in a race,and minimum 1pt win,almost saying to myself........why the 0.5pt ?
BSP......must come into this.Once otside the market leaders,the betfair sp can differ wildly to industry sp,It certainly will figure more in this years thread,I have no doubt.

Finally........We come to the good bit......or not.

165 bets......98 pt profit......no probs ?

There is one major flaw in last years betting patterns,and its taken me the best part of 8 hrs to identify.

I,m not yet certain how many hurdlers I backed 2017 /2018,that will come later.

What I can say.....PENHILL winning the stayers was my first winning hurdler put up on the thread

Mohaayed was the only other hurdle winner I put up last season.

Shocking really,and until going through the thread, I was not aware.

17 winners were chasers

All were at 2m 4f or above,not one winner over the minimum trip of 2m.

Not much to add really........major re-think required going into this season.

Any hurdle flak,or indeed advice,will be honestly really welcome

PWC Champion Chase - Jury Duty 1.5pts ew 16’s (Sky)

Told you you'd a better roi than me last season Noc, 84% to my 78%.

The season before last I had a bad record with handicap hurdles but a few of them came close 2nds at big prices. Last season showed me it was just random variance as there were plenty of hurdle wins. So I wouldn't think too much about it unless this season shows the same.

Lessons I'm going to apply this season.

1. No antepost, it's proven to be less profitable than just dotr over the course of a season. So it's cut out totally.
2. More bets, I am aiming for to try hit double the number of bets if possible and hopefully it'll be less than half last seasons roi. Thus more profit
3. Staking, I think I'm going to try incorporate some element of kelly criterion based off the previous 2 seasons. Essentially type of race and grouping of odds into like 10/1+ 5-10/1 or something similar. I can then calculate my edge based off those records so it gives me the way of calculating the probability a selection will win. I then have inputs for the kelly calculation. I think this is a way to ensure my stake levels are sized best based on where my edge is the best.

Hopefully these changes can lead to another best ever season.

Munster National  - Our Father 3pt Win 8’s (Various)

Silver Trophy

Zalvados 1pt 20/1 lads
Court Minstrel 1pt 14/1 pp

Munster National

Timiyan 1pt 20/1 b365

We’re always on the same track cvb...

Silver Trophy
Court Minstrel 1pt ew 12’s 5 Pls (PPower)
Point of Principle 0.7pts ew 33’s (Unibet)

1720 Chepstow - 1.5pt Win Bigbadjohn 10’s (Various)

1535 Limerick - Aranhill Chief 1pt ew 33’s  (Various)
1600 Chepstow - Double Ross 1pt Win 10’s (Various)
Munster National - Kylecrue 1pt ew 33’s 5pls (PPower)

Uttoxeter

Coologue 0.5pt 12/1 gen

Good luck all.

Greatwood- Western Ryder 1.5pt ew 20/1 3.65

Old Roan Chase - Guitar Pete 0.7pts ew 50’s (B365)

BetVictor  Gold Cup; Baron Alco 1pt ew 12/1 with PP, Bet365 and Betfair.

5-30 Chelt  Shoal Bay 1pt 16/1 var

4-55 chelt Muckle Roe 1pt 25/1 var