Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
cvbyrne.
01 Aug 18 06:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Sep 16
| Topic/replies: 809 | Blogger: cvbyrne.'s blog
And with the Galway Festival we're back

Class 1-3 UK races
€9500+ prize money for Irish racing

Max stake 3pts per selection
Max stake 6pts for Cheltenham Festival races
Quote odds and firm at time of bet
Betfair sp allowed

No taken odds betfair prices
No multiples

Please report total pts staked to date and points p/l

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 30  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 30 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,168
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 01 Aug 18 11:05
Galway Plate

Calino Dairy 2pts 11/1 b365
De Plotting Shed 1pt 12/1 b365
By:
Facts
When: 01 Aug 18 11:39
Drumcliff  - Galway Plate - 14/1 general.
By:
Facts
When: 01 Aug 18 11:40
^ 1pt win
By:
Fabulous
When: 01 Aug 18 17:30
Hello guys, and good luck for the season

Galway Plate
Calino D’Airy 3pts Win 12’s (Various)

Valseur Lido 18’s
Rock The World 66’s
Both 0.5pts ew (Sky)
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 02 Aug 18 09:53
Galway Hurdle

Le Richebourg 2pts 10/1 mb
By:
Fabulous
When: 02 Aug 18 15:22
Galway Hurdle
Le Richebourg 11-1
Project Bluebook
Both 1pt Win Various

The Game Changer 0.7pts ew 40’s (Sky)
By:
Fabulous
When: 05 Aug 18 12:10
Galway
Lake Takapuna 22’s
Coyeur Joyeux 25’s
Both 0.7pts ew 5 Places Various

Sandymount Duke 2pts Win 7’s (B365)
By:
Fabulous
When: 09 Aug 18 18:33
Albert Bartlett - Stay Humble 0.7 pts ew 50’s (B365)
By:
Fabulous
When: 06 Sep 18 18:46
Kerry National
Rogue Angel 2pts Win 14’s (B365)
Our Father 0.7pts ew 25’s (Boyle’s)
By:
Fabulous
When: 12 Sep 18 15:16
Kerry National
Vieux Morvan 1pt Win 12’s
All Hell Let Loose 0.7pts ew 5 Places 40’s
Various
By:
Fabulous
When: 24 Sep 18 12:28
Ladbrokes Trophy - Tereffort 3pts Win 16’s (Hills)
By:
nocturnal
When: 03 Oct 18 22:02
Not being a great record keeper......had a delve into my figures from last season.

Did this back in 2016,only then it was mid-season,with some very humbling results,it was a real eyeopener.

It,s time consuming and tedious,but I hope useful for the coming season.

2017/2018

116.5 pts staked     Profit 98 pts

165 Bets give or take.

Returns = 19     Around 9% strike rate

17 winners       2 place returns

2 placed horses 66/1 and 40/1

Winners

5 in single figures,shortest price 5/1

12 in double figures,longest price 50/1

Two returns,one place / one winner from Irish racing.

12 winners left handed tracks / 5 winners right handed tracks.

6 winners came from chetenham,4 at ascot,2 at chepstow,the rest single winners at various tracks.

Analysis

Not surprised at the cheltenham figure,the early season meetings always appeal,and the festival is a constant every March,truly wonderful setting for NH racing.

Ascot would not be a favourite,I have always favoured left handed tracks,something I looked into a little last season.I,m not sure of the ratio between left / right handed tracks in uk,but my own view is far fewer horses produce their best performances going right handed.

Chepstow is another course I like,proper fences,any jumping mistakes here are normally punnnished,very different in the depths of winter,where heavy ground is common place.

Avoiding the January blues........A losing month as far back as my time on the NH Thread started.Never really found the reason why,discussed some of the bigger stables vaccinating early new year,that may be a factor,but generally results are poor.Cut back markedly last season,raz de maree winning the re-scheduled national helped,but it remains a time to be very cautious.

Festival results........A huge factor in the season as a whole.Cheltenham was a bonus last season,Aintree was a washout apart from Ultragold in the Topham.Stakes can vary for me,theres a ying and yang both sides,the hits can be big,but so are the losses,something I took into account before both meetings,treading a little lighter than previous seasons.

Staking.........The 2016 season saw 50 bets at 0.5pt ew.......all beaten.....a 100% record that will take some beating.Last season saw plenty of 0.5pt bets, but very few were EW.The majority of winners were single selections in a race,and minimum 1pt win,almost saying to myself........why the 0.5pt ?
BSP......must come into this.Once otside the market leaders,the betfair sp can differ wildly to industry sp,It certainly will figure more in this years thread,I have no doubt.

Finally........We come to the good bit......or not.

165 bets......98 pt profit......no probs ?

There is one major flaw in last years betting patterns,and its taken me the best part of 8 hrs to identify.

I,m not yet certain how many hurdlers I backed 2017 /2018,that will come later.

What I can say.....PENHILL winning the stayers was my first winning hurdler put up on the thread Shocked

Mohaayed was the only other hurdle winner I put up last season.

Shocking really,and until going through the thread, I was not aware.

17 winners were chasers

All were at 2m 4f or above,not one winner over the minimum trip of 2m.

Not much to add really........major re-think required going into this season.

Any hurdle flak,or indeed advice,will be honestly really welcome Happy
By:
Fabulous
When: 05 Oct 18 16:04
Good luck this season Noc

Munster National - It’s All Guesswork 2.7pts Win 12’s (Various)
Ladbrokes Trophy - Dingo Dollar 1.5pts ew 25’s (Various)
National Hunt Chase - It’s All Guesswork 1.5pts ew 66’s (B365)
By:
Fabulous
When: 05 Oct 18 16:44
PWC Champion Chase - Jury Duty 1.5pts ew 16’s (Sky)
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 06 Oct 18 11:47
Gowran

Jury Duty 1pt @ 12/1 B365
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 06 Oct 18 12:25
Told you you'd a better roi than me last season Noc, 84% to my 78%.

The season before last I had a bad record with handicap hurdles but a few of them came close 2nds at big prices. Last season showed me it was just random variance as there were plenty of hurdle wins. So I wouldn't think too much about it unless this season shows the same.

Lessons I'm going to apply this season.

1. No antepost, it's proven to be less profitable than just dotr over the course of a season. So it's cut out totally.
2. More bets, I am aiming for to try hit double the number of bets if possible and hopefully it'll be less than half last seasons roi. Thus more profit
3. Staking, I think I'm going to try incorporate some element of kelly criterion based off the previous 2 seasons. Essentially type of race and grouping of odds into like 10/1+ 5-10/1 or something similar. I can then calculate my edge based off those records so it gives me the way of calculating the probability a selection will win. I then have inputs for the kelly calculation. I think this is a way to ensure my stake levels are sized best based on where my edge is the best.

Hopefully these changes can lead to another best ever season.
By:
Fabulous
When: 09 Oct 18 11:14
1650 Galway - Draycott Place 1pt ew 22’s (Various)
By:
Fabulous
When: 11 Oct 18 14:28
Munster National  - Our Father 3pt Win 8’s (Various)
By:
Fabulous
When: 11 Oct 18 14:28
Munster National  - Our Father 3pt Win 8’s (Various)
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 13 Oct 18 07:31
Silver Trophy

Zalvados 1pt 20/1 lads
Court Minstrel 1pt 14/1 pp
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 13 Oct 18 08:30
Chepstow

Bigbadjohn 1pt 11/1 b365
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 13 Oct 18 09:51
Munster National

Timiyan 1pt 20/1 b365
By:
Millerracing67
When: 13 Oct 18 10:14
1.55 Chep: 1pt win Pym 7/4 (bet365) best odds )
By:
Fabulous
When: 13 Oct 18 10:34
We’re always on the same track cvb...

Silver Trophy
Court Minstrel 1pt ew 12’s 5 Pls (PPower)
Point of Principle 0.7pts ew 33’s (Unibet)

1720 Chepstow - 1.5pt Win Bigbadjohn 10’s (Various)
By:
Fabulous
When: 13 Oct 18 19:20
1535 Limerick - Aranhill Chief 1pt ew 33’s  (Various)
1600 Chepstow - Double Ross 1pt Win 10’s (Various)
Munster National - Kylecrue 1pt ew 33’s 5pls (PPower)
By:
Fabulous
When: 13 Oct 18 19:20
1535 Limerick - Aranhill Chief 1pt ew 33’s  (Various)
1600 Chepstow - Double Ross 1pt Win 10’s (Various)
Munster National - Kylecrue 1pt ew 33’s 5pls (PPower)
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 14 Oct 18 09:25
Chepstow

Caroles Destrier 1pt 6/1 b365
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 17 Oct 18 18:49
Uttoxeter

Coologue 0.5pt 12/1 gen
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 19 Oct 18 19:22
Market Rasen

Playe the Ace 1pt 20/1 888
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Oct 18 06:39
Good luck all.

Greatwood- Western Ryder 1.5pt ew 20/1 3.65
By:
Fabulous
When: 23 Oct 18 22:31
Good luck this season Sint

Matchbook Handicap
What A Moment 3pts Win 16’s
Rightdownthemiddle 0.7pts EW 25’s
Both Lads

Old Roan Chase -Frodon 2.7pts Win 9’s  (Various)

Galway -11.8
Rogue Angel -2
All Hell Let Loose -1.4
Vieux Morvan -1
Court Minstrel -2
Bigbadjohn -1.5
Aranhill Chief -2
Kylecrue -2
Double Ross -1

Our Father (Listowel void)
Our Father (Limerick -3)
It’s All Guesswork (Chelts 4 miler cashed out)
It’s All Guesswork (Limerick -2.7)

IP
Stay Humble -1.4
Terrefort -3
Dingo Dollar -3
What A Moment -3
Rightdownthemiddle -2.7
Frodon -2.7

Coyeur Joyeux +3.67
Point of Principle +5.07
Draycott Place +4.5
Jury Duty +2.7

C/F -28.9    IP 15.8
By:
Fabulous
When: 24 Oct 18 13:32
Old Roan Chase - Guitar Pete 0.7pts ew 50’s (B365)
By:
nocturnal
When: 24 Oct 18 20:38
Evening Fab / Cvb .......Best of luck to both of you,everyone joining in.

Fab....knew you would be on What A Moment,loves the track.I can see the attraction with GP too,that price looks miles out of line,best of luck with both.

Thanks CVB..... Interesting points there,I was thinking that 160 bets was way too many this end,but I,m all ears if that works for you.
Come to think of it,Fab can have 160 bets in play at any given point Grin.

Looking through last years thread,the big priced hits were pretty regular,you both had plenty early doors,that really will be a hard season to follow.

On to HQ for two days,still catching up on a few replays.

That rogue you both backed at chepstow is entered on friday,slightly up in trip,does he stick with the claimer is the question,not sure if the ride at chepstow was by design,she needs all of that 7 lb and some based on that ride.

Pretty low grade stuff for the track,but the novice entries look interesting.

Always interested in the novice chasers entered up here,really is a tough track,not too many trainers send them here first time up,when they do,worth noting.

24 hr Decs tomorrow,and Aintree sunday,so it begins.
By:
pmt
When: 25 Oct 18 10:43
BetVictor  Gold Cup; Baron Alco 1pt ew 12/1 with PP, Bet365 and Betfair.
By:
Fabulous
When: 25 Oct 18 17:43
1510 Cheltenham - Court Minstrel 1pt ew 11’s 5pls (Fred)
1655 Cheltenham - Asking Questions 1.5pt Win 12’s (Hills)
By:
nocturnal
When: 25 Oct 18 22:29
5-30 Chelt  Shoal Bay 1pt 16/1 var
By:
Fabulous
When: 25 Oct 18 23:30
Masterson Hurdle - Malaya 1pt Win 8’s
National Hunt Chase - Blow By Blow 1.5pts ew 25’s
Both Various
By:
nocturnal
When: 26 Oct 18 09:05
4-55 chelt Muckle Roe 1pt 25/1 var
By:
cvbyrne.
When: 26 Oct 18 10:03
Cheltenham

3:10 First Assignment 8/1
4:55 Vinegar Hill 12/1

Both 1pt win
Page 1 of 30  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 30 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com