Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
17 Mar 18
21:59
Joined:
Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
Saxon Warrior and Gustav Klimt, two of O'Brien's big guns, but which one though? One other in contention could be U S Navy Flag.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 56
|
By:
saxon warrior is a weird buy for me . coolmore dont race deep impacts as far as i know , but , they bought a odd one with caravaggio so i think thats a tell that they think very highly of the colt . gustav climt is the flagship horse for them , hes a galileo had much less demanding tasks . surely saxon warrior imo , but , they will want the other to win . us navy flag tried to advertise him to the us and he flopped badly ,already had 10 runs so my guess is hes a small sort that lacks scope . elarqam not shown himself as very top class . expert eye injured lto but before his form with zaman doesnt make him look top class either . saxon warrior looks like he could be something special . just had 20 squids on him at 8.0 if he gets there hes gonna be evs to odds on
|
|
By:
ps he wont stay in the derby . so get on the 8.0 and wait for him to dominate the derby book then find the value
|
|
By:
Saxon Warrior (SW) needs stoking, in my opinion, and a mile might to too short for him; he's suited to further but 12f could stretch him. In contrast Gustav Klimt (GK) has the pace and stamina for this race, and he can also quicken at the business end. For this race I'd prefer GK over SW but I've backed SW and The Pentagon for the Epsom Derby.
|
|
By:
aiden speaks very highly of saxon warrior on the atr stable tour
|
|
By:
looked very good in the rp trophy , i didnt see stoking , i saw a slightly green horse as it hit the front , hes then bumped and then pressed tight against the rail and still gets back up in only his third start in a true run race . that sounds very impressive to me .
|
|
By:
Saxon Warrior is class.
|
|
By:
i concur
|
|
By:
probably at the prices gustav klimt is the value. but I am fairly sure every one of a obriens 2000g winners have gone straight to Newmarket with no prep run. a key stat imho. market would change if that sequence is broken. good luck as always.
 |
|
By:
I think Saxon Warrior takes a while to quicken unlike Gustav Klimt and is a better horse over 10f, I believe, but I'm not convinced he'll stay 12f despite being the fav for the Epsom Derby.
Gustav Klimt is my main selection for this race. |
|
By:
I put a decent treble on last Autumn. Enable in the Ark, Altior in the QM and Expert Eye in the 2000Gns. It was before it flopped in the Dewhurst. Hope it makes the gig
|
|
By:
The run of Expert Eye was too bad to be true - he was lit-up by another runner in the race, I believe. I hope he redeems himself next time out as I too have him singly and doubly at 4/1 (doo-doo). But my main ones are Gustav Klimt and Saxon Warrior, in order of preference according to stake money.
|
|
By:
Conductor - re "straight to Guineas", you may be right, but this year there are Guineas Trials that he likes the look of.
|
|
By:
impossible123
22 Mar 18 21:18 I hope he redeems himself next time out as I too have him singly and doubly at 4/1 (doo-doo). But my main ones are Gustav Klimt and Saxon Warrior, in order of preference according to stake money. So as usual you have backed every horse that has won impressively and been made favourite for the race at odds that make it very difficult to make any profit. Do you ever have an original thought or take a punt.  |
|
By:
blackbarn. I notice you mentioned 2000 guineas trials before Newmarket. but imho trainers tend to follow the usual tried and trusted formula for success. a Obriens 2000 guineas winners have all ran for the first time that season in the guineas. I stand to be proved wrong but I will be amazed if o brien wins the 2000 guineas with something that already has had a run this season. good luck as always.
|
|
By:
Conductor - You may well be right, but I was merely quoting him from his RP interview. There are two "new" Irish Guineas trials this year for both sexes at what he regards as the optimal distance (7f).
Actually I don't care much, I am only interested in the Djebel/Imprudence this year  . |
|
By:
I see the berk that is Impossible has felt the need to start his own thread on the race when there is already a far more detailed one knocking about.
|
|
By:
Sadly he seems to be succeeding in getting every half decent poster to leave the forum.
|
|
By:
Roaring Lion should be stronger than Saxon Warrior over a mile & it was greenness and hitting the front too soon that cost him in the R.Post Trophy imho - he showed himself to have a quicker turn of foot there. Saxon Warrior ground it out.
Expert Eye is the other one that interests me. He'll want good ground or quicker to stay the mile. If they can get him to settle and they go a proper gallop, I could see him adding to Stoute's 2,000 Guineas winner tally. A doubt on pedigree and if he pulls too hard, he could end up a top sprinter. |
|
By:
I don't agree with that assessment. Saxon Warrior was in front before Roaring Lion, he was headed and hampered and still got up to win with something in hand, despite being in my view the greener of the two as Roaring Lion had already been in a proper race in the Royal Lodge on his previous start.
He was also slightly too keen and in front too soon. Had he been settled in behind alongside Roaring Lion and delivered slightly later, I think he would have been more impressive. Roaring lion may be suited to a mile more than Saxon warrior this year, but I wouldn't be sure about that as Saxon Warrior looks the better physical specimen and I expect him to have more improvement to come. That said I don't have a strong view on the Guineas as I fancy him for the Derby and my only interest has been a small bet on Elarqam after his win at Newmarket. |
|
By:
If the jockey had waited longer on Roaring Lion before producing him I think he would have won. He hit the front and idled more than anything allowing Saxon Warrior to worry him out of it. I think Saxon Warrior is much more of a 10-12f horse in the making. 10f may well prove his optimum.
|
|
By:
My reading of the race is that Roaring Lion was delivered perfectly and that Saxon Warrior was more inconvenienced by racing slightly too keenly and being in front too soon, as well as being headed and hampered and still proving superior.
Roaring Lion is also bred to appreciate 10 furlongs this year. I don't believe he lost the race because he idled after hitting the front too soon. He was beaten by a better horse on the day under the race conditions even though the winner was more inconvenienced by how the race panned out. |
|
By:
I can't believe anyone who watched that race could conclude that Saxon Warrior was the best horse on the day. Roaring Lion threw it away. All about opinions though I spose.
|
|
By:
That is my personal reading of the race for the reasons I have explained above. I think it is too simplistic to conclude that Roaring Lion came to win the race and threw it away by jinking, but I guess we all read things differently and that is why betting markets exist.
In my view, the winner won with something in hand despite being the more inconvenienced of the two by how the race panned out. Hopefully they have both trained-on and I would very confident Saxon Warrior will prove himself to be the better of the two this year over ten furlongs plus. |
|
By:
Yes, it's all about opinions. I tend to agree with 'Jack Bauer' Saxon Warrior (SW) will prove himself the better of the two - Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion - this year over 10f plus; I'd go further SW will prove to be the better horse over 8f too, all things being equal.
|
|
By:
jack i think roaring lion is a freak , i see saxon winning the guineas and roaring lion being the best middle distance horse . he was really mature for a 2yo fought tooth and nail , but , didnt have the spped he really applies himself .
|
|
By:
I thought Without Parole could have been Gosden's guineas horse but it seems to have taken a walk in the betting,any ideas why anyone ?
|
|
By:
a very muddy picture at mo . i reckon saxon should be 6/4 ish the fact hes not makes me think their is a big meal ticket in this market yet , but , its not sacred life ! i,m sure of that
|
|
By:
vibe wise it looks like roaring lion
|
|
By:
I think the price of Saxon Warrior (SW) ought to be shorter too than the present 6/1, but I can understand the logic behind it; he only just got up to beat Roaring Lion (RL) after being caught flat footed (I think) behind horses when the pace quickened. Nevertheless, I still believe SW will confirm form with RL especially if the pace is good, all things being equal. Whether SW have the ability to quicken off a slow pace against Gustav Klimt (GK) who can quicken sharpish as shown in the Superlative I'm not sure - it was a shame GK could not run in the National Stakes after a minor setback. Expert Eye (EE) could also be a serious adversary if able to settle early and produce the form prior to his defeat in the Dewhurst, but I think US Navy Flag despite winning the Dewhurst is not as good as SW or GK, and neither is Elarqam.
I believe the price of GK will contract significantly if excelling in this saturday's 2000G Trial at Leopardstown despite the present not ideal ground. |
|
By:
impossible123 11 Apr 18 23:13
I believe the price of GK will contract significantly if excelling in this saturday's 2000G Trial at Leopardstown despite the present not ideal ground. Wow - another amazing pearl of wisdom there. What would we do without your amazing insights.  |
|
By:
I think the price of Saxon Warrior (SW) ought to be shorter too than the present 6/1, but I can understand the logic behind it; he only just got up to beat Roaring Lion (RL) after being caught flat footed (I think) behind horses when the pace quickened.
Were these invisible horses he was behind when the pace quickened?  |
|
By:
havent seen figgis posting on this forum for awhile, has he given up posting on this forum, was always informative and interesting reading his thoughts on the classics and group 1 races.
|
|
By:
Unfortunately I123 and his band of numpties have forced the majority of decent posters like Figgis and Brig to go elsewhere.
|
|
By:
if thats the case, then thats a shame, he was easily one of the best posters on this forum, didnt always agree with his opinions, learnt quiet a lot from his knowledge of the group 1 pattern races. im more interested in handicap races, his overall knowledge
of the classics, was built up from a life time of betting on these type of races. |
|
By:
i,m surprised gustav climt currently trades as favourite as his run imo was not impressive at all . it and saxons strong position in the derby market suggest sw may not even compete in this this . gk is only favourite because theres a lot of punters with ears to the ground around ballydoyle being told hes our guineas horse . the wind is blowing for roaring lion imo .no moles in gosdens yard . regarding interesting or not posts , i,ve no problem with i123 he has enthusiasm , everybody laments passing era,s . i didnt know those guys . i dont know 123 , but , i will always listen to someone who has made a effort . crass posts aside those guys , they didnt run off cos i123 posted shabba threads come on . they went cos they were done , ill health , death or found something better
|
|
By:
not sure if its possible or not , but , if you could link a couple of those guys threads . i,m not looking to poke holes in them i,m just interested in their analysis
|
|
By:
i have found when posting threads you end up with or close to the winner . at the start, the comments seem sound and as time progresses you get closer and closer just by maintaining an interest although the original synopsis seems way off. the eyeballs are scrutinising . all sorts of opinions arise and as you accept or decline them so your choice becomes defined and knowledgeable you get the picture .so to say that x or y was a great poster imo regresses the big races . i wanna hear everyones views so i can stick or change
|
|
By:
I think it is extremely sad and insecure if a poster abstain from posting just because of another person's posts of differing opinions even though there is no vulgarity, personal insult and/or infantile behaviour in the posts.
If this attitude and behaviour were to be replicated in the law courts or political climate of a country the outcome would be one-sided eg a totally correct or totally wrong one which is wholly unhealthy and not a true representation of a democratic society; a closed and predictable opinion/outcome is mostly boring and not visionary either. This behaviour resembles that of someone with a high level of "self entitlement" and cannot accept there is another line of thought other than their own especially in the sport of horse racing/betting,...a sport of mainly opinions and a degree of good fortune involved. If one feels aggrieved or disrespected one could always start another thread of the same topic and/or put the other poster on ignore,...this is the mature and adult manner. But, please do not try and blame one's absence or abstinence from posting on another poster as if one's posts/opinions is gospel and accurate. This platform has room adequate to accommodate more than just one solitary opinion/ego. |
|
By:
Gustav Klimt and Masar have come in for more support, 3/1 and 5/1 respectively, but going the other way is Saxon Warrior, the conqueror of Roaring Lion who disappointed yesterday. Saxon Warrior is out to 10.5 here, dodgy runner or money for the others who've had a run or running tomorrow.
|