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17 Mar 18 21:59
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 20,360 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Saxon Warrior and Gustav Klimt, two of O'Brien's big guns, but which one though? One other in contention could be U S Navy Flag.
Pause Switch to Standard View 2000 Guineas (5th May)
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Report gpz6316 March 19, 2018 11:59 PM GMT
saxon warrior is a weird buy for me . coolmore dont race deep impacts as far as i know , but , they bought a odd one with caravaggio so i think thats a tell that they think very highly of the colt . gustav climt is the flagship horse for them , hes a galileo  had much less demanding tasks . surely saxon warrior imo , but , they will want the other to win . us navy flag tried to advertise him to the us and he flopped badly ,already had 10 runs so my guess is hes a small sort that lacks scope . elarqam not shown himself as very top class . expert eye injured lto but before his form with zaman doesnt make him look top class either . saxon warrior looks like he could be something special . just had 20 squids on him at 8.0 if he gets there hes gonna be evs to odds on
Report gpz6316 March 20, 2018 12:05 AM GMT
ps he wont stay in the derby . so get on the 8.0 and wait for him to dominate the derby book then find the value
Report impossible123 March 20, 2018 2:26 PM GMT
Saxon Warrior (SW) needs stoking, in my opinion, and a mile might to too short for him; he's suited to further but 12f could stretch him. In contrast Gustav Klimt (GK) has the pace and stamina for this race, and he can also quicken at the business end. For this race I'd prefer GK over SW but I've backed SW and The Pentagon for the Epsom Derby.
Report gpz6316 March 20, 2018 10:00 PM GMT
aiden speaks very highly of saxon warrior on the atr stable tour
Report gpz6316 March 20, 2018 10:14 PM GMT
looked very good in the rp trophy , i didnt see stoking , i saw a slightly green horse as it hit the front , hes then bumped and then pressed tight against the rail and still gets back up in only his third start in a true run race . that sounds very impressive to me .
Report deepingfox March 20, 2018 10:25 PM GMT
Saxon Warrior is class.
Report gpz6316 March 20, 2018 10:50 PM GMT
i concur
Report conductor March 21, 2018 4:36 PM GMT
probably at the prices gustav klimt is the value. but I am fairly sure every one of a obriens 2000g winners have gone straight to Newmarket with no prep run. a key stat imho. market would change if that sequence is broken. good luck as always.Wink
Report impossible123 March 21, 2018 4:40 PM GMT
I think Saxon Warrior takes a while to quicken unlike Gustav Klimt and is a better horse over 10f, I believe, but I'm not convinced he'll stay 12f despite being the fav for the Epsom Derby.

Gustav Klimt is my main selection for this race.
Report willie the milk March 22, 2018 6:51 PM GMT
I put a decent treble on last Autumn. Enable in the Ark, Altior in the QM and Expert Eye in the 2000Gns. It was before it flopped in the Dewhurst. Hope it makes the gig
Report impossible123 March 22, 2018 9:18 PM GMT
The run of Expert Eye was too bad to be true - he was lit-up by another runner in the race, I believe. I hope he redeems himself next time out as I too have him singly and doubly at 4/1 (doo-doo). But my main ones are Gustav Klimt and Saxon Warrior, in order of preference according to stake money.
Report blackbarn March 22, 2018 11:08 PM GMT
Conductor - re "straight to Guineas", you may be right, but this year there are Guineas Trials that he likes the look of.
Report unclepuncle March 23, 2018 6:55 AM GMT
22 Mar 18 21:18
I hope he redeems himself next time out as I too have him singly and doubly at 4/1 (doo-doo). But my main ones are Gustav Klimt and Saxon Warrior, in order of preference according to stake money.

So as usual you have backed every horse that has won impressively and been made favourite for the race at odds that make it very difficult to make any profit. Do you ever have an original thought or take a punt.Cry
Report conductor March 23, 2018 4:58 PM GMT
blackbarn. I notice you mentioned 2000 guineas trials before Newmarket. but imho trainers tend to follow the usual tried and trusted formula for success. a Obriens 2000 guineas winners have all ran for the first time that season in the guineas. I stand to be proved wrong but I will be amazed if o brien wins the 2000 guineas with something that already has had a run this season. good luck as always.
Report blackbarn March 23, 2018 11:50 PM GMT
Conductor - You may well be right, but I was merely quoting him from his RP interview. There are two "new" Irish Guineas trials this year for both sexes at what he regards as the optimal distance (7f). 

Actually I don't care much, I am only interested in the Djebel/Imprudence this yearCool.
Report sintonian March 24, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
I see the berk that is Impossible has felt the need to start his own thread on the race when there is already a far more detailed one knocking about.
Report unclepuncle March 24, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
Sadly he seems to be succeeding in getting every half decent poster to leave the forum.
Report johnnyrant March 27, 2018 3:28 PM BST
Roaring Lion should be stronger than Saxon Warrior over a mile & it was greenness and hitting the front too soon that cost him in the R.Post Trophy imho - he showed himself to have a quicker turn of foot there. Saxon Warrior ground it out.

Expert Eye is the other one that interests me. He'll want good ground or quicker to stay the mile. If they can get him to settle and they go a proper gallop, I could see him adding to Stoute's 2,000 Guineas winner tally. A doubt on pedigree and if he pulls too hard, he could end up a top sprinter.
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 27, 2018 7:55 PM BST
I don't agree with that assessment. Saxon Warrior was in front before Roaring Lion, he was headed and hampered and still got up to win with something in hand, despite being in my view the greener of the two as Roaring Lion had already been in a proper race in the Royal Lodge on his previous start.

He was also slightly too keen and in front too soon. Had he been settled in behind alongside Roaring Lion and delivered slightly later, I think he would have been more impressive.

Roaring lion may be suited to a mile more than Saxon warrior this year, but I wouldn't be sure about that as Saxon Warrior looks the better physical specimen and I expect him to have more improvement to come. That said I don't have a strong view on the Guineas as I fancy him for the Derby and my only interest has been a small bet on Elarqam after his win at Newmarket.
Report johnnyrant March 28, 2018 6:31 PM BST
If the jockey had waited longer on Roaring Lion before producing him I think he would have won. He hit the front and idled more than anything allowing Saxon Warrior to worry him out of it. I think Saxon Warrior is much more of a 10-12f horse in the making. 10f may well prove his optimum.
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 28, 2018 6:54 PM BST
My reading of the race is that Roaring Lion was delivered perfectly and that Saxon Warrior was more inconvenienced by racing slightly too keenly and being in front too soon, as well as being headed and hampered and still proving superior.

Roaring Lion is also bred to appreciate 10 furlongs this year. I don't believe he lost the race because he idled after hitting the front too soon. He was beaten by a better horse on the day under the race conditions even though the winner was more inconvenienced by how the race panned out.
Report The Headmaster March 29, 2018 4:32 PM BST
I can't believe anyone who watched that race could conclude that Saxon Warrior was the best horse on the day.  Roaring Lion threw it away.  All about opinions though I spose.
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 29, 2018 5:14 PM BST
That is my personal reading of the race for the reasons I have explained above. I think it is too simplistic to conclude that Roaring Lion came to win the race and threw it away by jinking, but I guess we all read things differently and that is why betting markets exist.

In my view, the winner won with something in hand despite being the more inconvenienced of the two by how the race panned out. Hopefully they have both trained-on and I would very confident Saxon Warrior will prove himself to be the better of the two this year over ten furlongs plus.
Report impossible123 March 29, 2018 7:33 PM BST
Yes, it's all about opinions. I tend to agree with 'Jack Bauer' Saxon Warrior (SW) will prove himself the better of the two - Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion - this year over 10f plus; I'd go further SW will prove to be the better horse over 8f too, all things being equal.
Report gpz6316 March 29, 2018 9:26 PM BST
jack i think roaring lion is a freak , i see saxon winning the guineas and roaring lion being the best middle distance horse . he was  really mature for a 2yo fought tooth and nail , but , didnt have the spped he really applies himself .
Report treetop April 11, 2018 2:54 PM BST
I thought Without Parole could have been Gosden's guineas horse but it seems to have taken a walk in the betting,any ideas why anyone ?
Report gpz6316 April 11, 2018 9:31 PM BST
a very muddy picture at mo . i reckon saxon should be 6/4 ish the fact hes not makes me think their is a big meal ticket in this market yet , but , its not sacred life ! i,m sure of that
Report gpz6316 April 11, 2018 9:35 PM BST
vibe wise it looks like roaring lion
Report impossible123 April 11, 2018 11:13 PM BST
I think the price of Saxon Warrior (SW) ought to be shorter too than the present 6/1, but I can understand the logic behind it; he only just got up to beat Roaring Lion (RL) after being caught flat footed (I think) behind horses when the pace quickened. Nevertheless, I still believe SW will confirm form with RL especially if the pace is good, all things being equal. Whether SW have the ability to quicken off a slow pace against Gustav Klimt (GK) who can quicken sharpish as shown in the Superlative I'm not sure - it was a shame GK could not run in the National Stakes after a minor setback. Expert Eye (EE) could also be a serious adversary if able to settle early and produce the form prior to his defeat in the Dewhurst, but I think US Navy Flag despite winning the Dewhurst is not as good as SW or GK, and neither is Elarqam.

I believe the price of GK will contract significantly if excelling in this saturday's 2000G Trial at Leopardstown despite the present not ideal ground.
Report unclepuncle April 12, 2018 8:15 AM BST
impossible123 11 Apr 18 23:13

I believe the price of GK will contract significantly if excelling in this saturday's 2000G Trial at Leopardstown despite the present not ideal ground.

Wow - another amazing pearl of wisdom there. What would we do without your amazing insights.Crazy
Report gerard April 12, 2018 10:42 AM BST
I think the price of Saxon Warrior (SW) ought to be shorter too than the present 6/1, but I can understand the logic behind it; he only just got up to beat Roaring Lion (RL) after being caught flat footed (I think) behind horses when the pace quickened.

Were these invisible horses he was behind when the pace quickened? Laugh
Report roadrunner46 April 12, 2018 11:30 AM BST
havent seen figgis posting on this forum for awhile, has he given up posting on this forum, was always informative and interesting reading his thoughts on the classics and group 1 races.
Report unclepuncle April 12, 2018 3:10 PM BST
Unfortunately I123 and his band of numpties have forced the majority of decent posters like Figgis and Brig  to go elsewhere.
Report roadrunner46 April 12, 2018 3:53 PM BST
if thats the case, then thats a shame, he was easily one of the best posters on this forum, didnt always agree with his opinions, learnt quiet a lot from his knowledge of the group 1 pattern races. im more interested in handicap races, his overall knowledge
of the classics, was built up from a life time of betting on these type of races.
Report gpz6316 April 18, 2018 10:26 PM BST
i,m surprised gustav climt currently trades as favourite as his run imo was not impressive at all . it and saxons strong position in the derby market suggest sw  may not even compete in this this  . gk is only favourite because theres a lot of punters with ears to the ground around  ballydoyle being told hes our guineas horse . the wind is blowing for roaring lion imo .no moles in gosdens yard . regarding interesting or not posts , i,ve no problem with i123 he has enthusiasm , everybody laments passing era,s . i didnt know those guys . i dont know 123 , but , i will always listen to someone who has  made a effort  . crass posts aside those guys , they didnt run off cos i123 posted  shabba threads come on . they went cos they were done , ill health , death or found something better
Report gpz6316 April 18, 2018 11:08 PM BST
not sure if its possible or not , but , if you could link a couple of those guys threads . i,m not looking to poke holes in them i,m just interested in their analysis
Report gpz6316 April 18, 2018 11:56 PM BST
i have found when posting threads you end up with or close to the winner . at the start, the comments seem sound and as time progresses you get closer and closer just by maintaining an interest although the original synopsis seems way off. the eyeballs are scrutinising . all sorts of opinions arise and as you accept or decline them so your choice becomes defined and knowledgeable you get the picture .so to say that x or y was a great poster imo regresses the big races . i wanna hear everyones views so i can stick or change
Report impossible123 April 19, 2018 5:22 PM BST
I think it is extremely sad and insecure if a poster abstain from posting just because of another person's posts of differing opinions even though there is no vulgarity, personal insult and/or infantile behaviour in the posts.

If this attitude and behaviour were to be replicated in the law courts or political climate of a country the outcome would be one-sided eg  a totally correct or totally wrong one which is wholly unhealthy and not a true representation of a democratic society; a closed and predictable opinion/outcome is mostly boring and not visionary either. This behaviour resembles that of someone with a high level of "self entitlement" and cannot accept there is another line of thought other than their own especially in the sport of horse racing/betting,...a sport of mainly opinions and a degree of good fortune involved.

If one feels aggrieved or disrespected one could always start another thread of the same topic and/or put the other poster on ignore,...this is the mature and adult manner. But, please do not try and blame one's absence or abstinence from posting on another poster as if one's posts/opinions is gospel and accurate. This platform has room adequate to accommodate more than just one solitary opinion/ego.
Report impossible123 April 20, 2018 4:24 PM BST
Gustav Klimt and Masar have come in for more support, 3/1 and 5/1 respectively, but going the other way is Saxon Warrior, the conqueror of Roaring Lion who disappointed yesterday. Saxon Warrior is out to 10.5 here, dodgy runner or money for the others who've had a run or running tomorrow.
Report gpz6316 April 22, 2018 11:26 PM BST
ya i just think acey is being nostalgic , i,ve no problem with you or acey . sometimes you do speak the obvious i123 from his point of view which he has highlighted . i remember other threads like the 2016 derby by rabbiting on we got to harzand . acey is in the wrong, you never knock back enthusiasm . i talked a load of the proverbial many times . im with you i 123 ,acey needs to lighten up , he,s too busy thinking about whats gone ,at times a lament we  all have . move on
Report gpz6316 April 22, 2018 11:45 PM BST
a new season i,llpost
Report impossible123 April 23, 2018 12:57 PM BST
I remember Harzand; Harzand winning the 2016 Epsom Derby was a good result, but it nearly did not happen given the last minute scare. I'd have put it down to experience and bad luck had his trainer withdrawn him. That is the beauty of horse racing and betting - he won when I'd not expected him to run; Dancing Brave was the exact opposite. Another was Summerville Boy who'd beaten Kalashnikov twice in competitive races they'd met; Kalashnikov won the 'betfair' without Summerville Boy.

I think horse racing/betting is unlike most sports/betting, can be rewarding...and also costly and humbling. Thus, I never take it too seriously - it is only a game even though I'm an ardent supporter and follower. As it involves many imponderables I'd treat it clinically and seldom with emotion but observation and plain facts.

Now back to this race. I tend to agree with you the betting could be indicating Saxon Warrior (SW) might be a non-runner (11 here but was as large as 15 yesterday). However, I hope he turns up as I do have him and GK antepost; the price of GK is short and so are Elarqam and Masar - beaten by the two AOB fillies Happily and September last season. But SW is value, I believe, if he shows up - he has good form. Whether Moore rides or not does not bother me the slightest. I'm hoping for a creditable run from both my selections.
Report impossible123 April 25, 2018 11:22 PM BST
Saxon Warrior is still in after the forfeit stage; confirmation of entry is at 12pm monday 30th.
Report treetop May 1, 2018 12:20 AM BST
Without Parole shortened back in,I had a word that this might be Gosdens guineas horse after trotting up at Newcastle,mmay be ground sensitive. Should have topped up after its price drifted.
Report impossible123 May 1, 2018 7:48 AM BST
It is not uncommon for price manipulation to rear its ugly head now an again to achieve someone's objective ie nicking a better price from the nervy and uninformed unless a piece of negative info eg ground dependent, is in the public domain very soon after. For instance, Saxon Warrior 9 (here) even after trainer stated he was coming along fine for this race - he'd have been backed at 15 (here). Another one is Happily the short price 1000g fav, 5/2 for the race but 11 (here) for the Oaks, and only 6/1 with high street bookies.
Report impossible123 May 4, 2018 5:53 PM BST
After a few days of uneasiness Saxon Warrior has come in for significant support; he's into 5 (here) from 8, and as a consequence Gustav Klimt is out to 4.4 from 3.9 now.

Moore is jetting back to ride Happily on sunday; someone is keen!
Report gpz6316 May 5, 2018 3:59 PM BST
get out of jail free card just issued well done saxon phew !
Report impossible123 May 5, 2018 4:22 PM BST
Same here, mighty relieved my 2nd 'string' produced the goods.

A very good performance by Saxon Warrior (SW) to win 1st time out and hitting the front earlier than connections would have liked, I believe; the Epsom Derby is just up his street, and the market is reflecting that - 'evens' now. I hope he turns up as I have a small bet at 25/1 double for the Epsom Derby. A better prospect than Australia, I think.

Still a good result for me nevertheless, as I helped myself to some 15, 13 and 10 here.
Report charwell. May 8, 2018 1:29 AM BST
I think Saxon Warrior will be top class over 10/12f. I think the actual quality of milers in this field was very poor.
Report impossible123 May 8, 2018 8:53 AM BST
I hope to see Saxon Warrior in the Juddmonte over 10f against Cracksman/Enable (if he does not win the Derby) otherwise the Triple Crown could be his target. I do agree those behind him in this race do not add up to an above average crop of 3yr old milers. Now, one can safely deduce the performance of Masar in the Craven had style but little substance.
Report gpz6316 May 9, 2018 9:12 PM BST
i thought roaring lion ran well , he confirmed in my mind a desperation to go left , hes so well balanced though he could take the derby up 2.5f out and the camber might not let saxon past . i honestly dont know why rl isnt gonna run in the derby . gosden has a screw loose here .
Report gpz6316 May 9, 2018 9:29 PM BST
when a horse is soo suited to a race im flabbergasted gosden isnt running him . i know hes not now the best 3yo but the derby is perfect for him
Report charwell. May 9, 2018 9:30 PM BST
He isn't anywhere near good enough to win the Derby so hardly a baffling decision. He has Sevenna Star and possibly Without Parole who are both simply more talented.
Report gpz6316 May 15, 2018 9:37 PM BST
if rl did win then he would regress and be a disappointing winner . they do say horses for courses , however , and he will run well imo . racingpost 2nd and a good run in the guineas so i,m baffled myself why you think ss or wp are more talented . your wrong . they are fresh , yes , but , not better
Report charwell. May 17, 2018 12:15 PM BST
SS & WP IMO more talented over a derby trip. RL has been disappointing essentially and, to me, doubt he will stay 12f either.
Report unclepuncle May 17, 2018 5:40 PM BST

Stick to the LFC thread Charwell - at least when you get it totally wrong on there you have lots of fellow muppets to back you up.LaughLaugh
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