|
By:
ive done ok in it if you keep poking and prodding you will get close
|
|
By:
why are people saying Summerville Boy is a good ground horse? only wins on soft and heavy
|
|
By:
bloob im just surmising given that his sire is a top of the ground flat horse and he doesnt have a rounded action . hes also been layed out for this ( was entered in the betfair ) but they took him out to keep him fresh for this , hes a 150 rated hurdler after just 5 career starts , beat the second fav for this race lto and is 16-1 , thats my case sir .
|
|
By:
theres also comments from tom george the trainer " hes a very strong traveller and a quick horse "
|
|
By:
and for 57 quid more you could make him 4-1 second fav !
|
|
By:
ive made my nest now with summerville boy , unless he gets injured and hes sure to avoid samcro now destined to the ballymore , i see him going off 2nd or 3rd fav . obviously if you had to stake your life on this result i would pick getabird but 16-1 is too big . if he gets there im sue he,ll be under 10-1 . best of luck
|
|
By:
I'm now on too, listening to the trainer it does sound as though good ground is not a problem, Kalashnikov has given the form a massive boost too. I've backed 2 in the race and think I will stick with that:
Paloma Blue Summerville Boy both nice each way bets |
|
By:
All over Claimantakinforgan****gwheelbarrow at 16/1+. He was 8/1 before his defeat at Mussleborugh. Now's he more than doubled in price. Ridiculous given Muss was way to tight a strack for a horse who has more stamina than speed and was also prepping. And to be fair, the horse that beat him is now 3/3 over hurdles so the form might actually be decent. Before that he won the Grade 2 at Ascot in such easy fashion, and posted a good time figure. Think the price is huge.
|
|
By:
Getabird for me with Paloma Blue staying on for second
|
|
By:
ive had a good look at the silly named henderson horse too . claimantakinforgan , obv the last race was a prep and he wasnt given a hard time . no doubting its possible , but , henderson doesnt hold much faith imo his comment was surely he must be better that ! regarding his last run . the suggestion being he doesnt show hes better than that
|
|
By:
Elliot has been reported to say Samcro will be Ballymore/Neptune bound unless conditions become extremely testing at Cheltenham which is unlikely given it is the Festival, and the nature of the course. If so, he'd be Supreme bound, I believe.
The weather forecast for next week is inclement. If the one after is the same again that could give rise to testing conditions for Cheltenham, and Samcro could be Supreme bound. What a race, if so, against Getabird?; the Ballymore/Neptune could be "gifted" to On The Blind Side, in the event. Someone's misfortune is someone else's fortune, as the saying goes. Let's hope the weather is reasonable and fair to all. |
|
By:
it wont be extremely testing 123 as this will be the first race and the ground wont be opened up . chelts drains well also and knowing what may be coming they could put the sheets down to keep most of it off the track . clerk of the course always looks to have good / good/soft and im sure thats what youll get on the tuesday
|
|
By:
they can only make the course wetter , but , they can keep the moisture off , so i dont buy samcro coming to the party , however , i did reach for one with laurina getting bought by jp and coming here . you have to imagine , as we dont know
|
|
By:
ps laurina is still quoted by ladbrokes as a 10-1 shot and i still struggle to beleive that jp is gonna go into the race without a live contendor
|
|
By:
With the present cold spell and precipitation on most days prior to the Festival, and on the opening day and next, according to long range forecast, we could be in for a surprise.
I'm already getting Cheltenham Festival fever and cannot wait for it to commence; just hoping most, if not all my selections, make the trip. |
|
By:
Keep taking the tablets for that fever
|
|
By:
gpz. Jared Sullivan is a huge owner. He wont be selling any horse to JP.
|
|
By:
regarding laurina . i gave that idea up , i am in a good position with summerville boy and was wondering whether he could actually beat getabird or i should exit at a profit . Having analysed getabird i think theirs good reason to think that summerville boy can indeed beat getabird . His Achilles heel seems to be the fact that all his form is right handed , when put under a little pressure in his maiden at the last he jumps noticeably out to the right and in his last hurdle race he was positioned very close to the rail jumping the last , but , again defo looked to want to go out to the right . This is gonna give him big problems at cheltenham and makes him most definitely beatable .
|
|
By:
the only time he ever went left handed was his first ever run at liscarroll and he ran out at the second . never been left handed since .
|
|
By:
Interesting angle and he does look plenty short enough now and the other market principals all look beatable so I'm looking for a shock result.
Vision Des Flos might be interesting but market says he might go for the Ballymore - though I think the Supreme is the better race for him and have had a bit of 33/1 nrnb. |
|
By:
I think Getabird will still have the edge over Mengli Khan even on level terms. I also think Summerville the same over Kalashnikov despite the latter was running with 3 shoes. The subsequent question will be is Mengli Khan more superior than Summerville and/or Kalashnikov?
If the ground is no better than soft Getabird is difficult to beat, i believe. |
|
By:
Soft ground start to Festival looks a strong possibility judging by long range forecast. Drying out from Wednesday onwards throughout the week.
|
|
By:
"nothing is set in stone but i think it likely summerville boy will go down the supreme route" .tom george today rp. a little disappointing that george didnt mention how well he was ? however , on a positive note the story was about sb rather than black op , nothing said about his well being either so i,m guessing they,re both fine . i,m taking a positive from the fact that black ops ballymore is way hotter than the supreme yet the story is summerville boy . suggesting he is there biggest chance
|
|
By:
a few days ago menglikhan came in for support,on the basis of his last training session , numerically i can tell you that it didnt go well as his support has dried up . they dont beleive in getabird but they hope , henderson cant speak regarding his . (the big dogs )are saying we dont have one . its between sb and simply the betts , whoms trainer thinks he,ll run in the first half of the field . he will run much better than that
|
|
By:
Yep, SB been added.
|
|
By:
Still not keen on the front of the market and with Vision Des Flos not declared I have switched to Scarlet Drgaon at 33/1 nrnb. Probably won't want it too soft but the price makes up for that.
Thought he ran an excellent race on his first attempt at Kempton under tender handling and the winner that day would surely be close to favouritsim if he were entered at Chletenham. He reminds me a bit of Flown who was another ex-flat horse who made his jump debut in the same Kempton race before winning the Supreme. |
|
By:
Just two for me. They are Getabird and Mengli Khan; the former owes me from a no-show last Cheltenham, and the latter before his defeat by the former. Also, Samcro (10/1 but not nrnb) as a saver in a treble with Footpad and Might Bite.
|
|
By:
I've got a lot of respect for Kalashnikov but Summerville Boy travelled and finished much better in the Tolworth. The former had lost a shoe but I don't think that explains him having to be pushed along as the same happened at Newbury, presumably with the full complement of footwear. SB has lost a couple of times at Cheltenham and maybe that explains his price but I'm sure those defeats were more to do with how the races were run than the track not suiting. The way he ran through the line on heavy ground at Sandown I can't see the hill holding any fears for him.
|
|
By:
The Russian gunner has had a very hard race in the Betfair Hurdle. I also think, despite his lack of footwear, he's beaten fairly and squarely by Summerville Boy in the Tolworth Hurdle.
Mengle Khan and Getabird for a rfc. |
|
By:
The first race Summerville Boy lost at Cheltenham they only jumped 5 hurdles with those in the home straight omitted due to low sun so I definitely would n't be holding that against him.
That said, I still think the winner of that race, Slate House, might outrun his odds - subsequently he was trying to give Claimantakinforgan and the rest 5lbs when beaten at Ascot so he's only really run one bad race which was up in trip, on desperate ground when his stable was out of form on Festival Trials Day. The trouble is, of course, there are plenty that you can manufacture a case for on a similar basis - so will hang fire until after final decs |
|
By:
9/9 5/6 yr old
9/9 4 hurdle runs 19/21 ran in same calendar year 20/21 won 50% hurdle starts 18/21 won lto 30/32 1st 3 lto 29/29 5 runs max current season 12/19 Irish trained 20/24 ran within 45 days 3/18 Only 3 favs have won from the last 18 to start 3/1 or lower. There are enough stats to oppose all three at the head of the market. Getabird....brings a similar profile to min,does he have the hurdling experience of previous winners from the stable,and are they concerned he can go left handed? Kalashnikov....... fine horse,arguably beat half way up the straight in the betfair,his stamina kicked In and he came home strongly.Has he left his race there,and can the smaller stable produce him at his very best on the day. Summerville Boy....another likeable horse,but he's been beaten a few times,comes here off a much longer break than ideal,and the stable again are not renowned for grade 1 winners. Very open race,at much bigger odds Its easy to make a case for Paloma Blue and Slate House.Despite being regarded as the speed test for novices,at this age,these younger horses will need a degree of stamina, they will not have encountered this prolonged type of pace before. Always maintained its the hardest race of the 4 days,the coming together of unknown types from both sides of the water,any of which can be improving rapidly as spring approaches. Tremendous race to kick off...... plenty decent priced winners this century. |
|
By:
Thanks for the summary nocturnal. I wouldn't hold SBs Cheltenham defeats against him. They were both farcical races and the trainer said he improved for the stronger pace at Sandown. I glossed over what Tom George said back then but when I looked at the videos yesterday I absolutely agree with him. The break since he last ran is a concern. Not sure if that was the plan or if he had a minor setback.
|
|
By:
How does slate house have a chance when it got battered by the hendo horse
|
|
By:
Morning Autocue......Summerville Boy is a player,no doubt,and crucially he comes here on the back of a win,as do the other two.Any news on who is riding?,that is also interesting for me,does he use Heskin or Fehily.
Another strong stat is having big field experience,on this score Kalashnikov would have the edge,the betfair will have given Mullins an idea where he stands,bleu et rouge did not come over just for that race,that was a chance to gauge where they stand. King......Tizzard horses been under cloud for a few months,well documented,Slate House has course form,a beating of Summerville Boy off levels,easy to dismiss both his last 2 runs,neither of which were without promise.The prep is not typical of a supreme winner, Labaik was another with a strange set figures,punters have been spoilt with a few shorties recently,I think this might be one where the layers fancy their chances. No bet yet,the market may hold a clue raceday,48 hr decs may also give us a little more time once we have final field. GL Both |
|
By:
Interesting views, i can defo see a big priced winner here....just which one...
|
|
By:
Fehily is booked which suits me. Hadn't thought of bleu et rouge having an alternative role as a stalking horse.
|
|
By:
Samcro has firmed up into 9 here, a ruse and/or market manipulation similar to Petit Mouchoir yesterday in the Arkle perhaps.
|
|
By:
samcro is like a kardashian ( very sad to say ) because of his self, markets can swing . times are changing , in the past they kept to there word ( ballymore ) . does one expect decency to the punters ?
|
|
By:
george should be saying there wellbeing , he wanted to talk about his chaser singlefarmpayment .
|
|
By:
im having serious doubts about sb george needs to confirm his well being on saturday
|