supreme novices hurdle 2018

i didnt think that getabird would be coming to the party and he fits the 1m4f fast ground sire profile . samcro by germany doesnt though . mullins talked about wanting slow ground for sharjah on sunday ,  mindgames ?. the dam is a good ground horse as is the sire , hes , just come off a fall though and i wouldnt be surprised given that its a very hot race that he may not be off ! on sunday . elliott is making all the right noises about samcro for sunday . i think he will win well , expect sharjah to run a race of promise

I think Mullins and Gigginstown will leave both horses in both races ie Supreme and Ballymore/Neptune, and possibly wait for the other to blink 1st. And by the way, one of the O'leary brothers had advised punters "not to read anything into the fact his sunday mission is over 2m as all Cheltenham options are open for him still, but he's likely to step up in trip for the Ballymore/Neptune after this."

However, Sharjah could be the benchmark of the ability of Samcro post sunday.

thks 123 , as for sommerville boy . his rep is gonna be big upped or downed next saturday in the gold trophy by kalashnikov whom i think will win it , and ive backed him to do so btw .

Hope the horses that ran in the Tolworth jump better than they did that day.
Personally would not back any of that lot in a top class competitive race.

The two most exciting novice hurdlers are Samcro and Getabird, the former winning his races effortlessly, and the latter utmost impressive in his last race and on former bumper form. And I do not believe they will meet in this year's Festival.

i think connections of samcro are seriously considering a tilt at the champion , two days after it was proposed in the press now and theyve not ruled it out .

thoughts run back to valiramix , whom was cantering , hed have won it doing handstands but for breaking down and alderbrook did win it so its defo dooable

seriously? Champion Hurdle? I can't find Samcro in the betting anywhere

ya seriously gordon is now saying he favours the ballymore ! of course he does  , but , does the owner ?

silence speaks a thousand words as they say . hed beat buveir dair imo . isnt this kind of thing what owners dream about ?

The owner's interview with Matt Chapman on Sunday (albeit specific to Apple's Jade) would lead you to believe he is a pragmatist - he wants Festival winners and so is likely to choose what he considers to be the weakest race. His actions to date also suggest he has a lot of faith in Elliott.

Obviously there's little downside to backing him NRNB for the Champion Hurdle if you can get a price.

I see nothing other than media or punter speculation to suggest he's not going to run in the Ballymore.

the owner said Ballymore after the race on Sunday, and he has said that all along

he is the sort of person that the more people pressurise him to do something, the more he will stick to his guns. He would lose a lot of face by changing his mind now, especially if it looked like he had given way to popular demand

I backed Valirimix that day-would have won in a common canter...McCoy said so himself.

The winner of yesterday's Betfair Hurdle Kalashnikov looks destined here. My concern would be will he have the pace to keep up especially on good ground bearing in mind his jockey was fairly animated early on just staying in touch? I understand he pulled away on the run-in winning like a handicap snip but I think some of his protagonists did not turn up yesterday given atrocious ground condition.

The Ballymore is not much of an option either with Samcro and On The Blind Side in contention.

Vision Des Flos knocked the eye out @ Exeter today time looked decent compared with rest of hurdles card.Heavy ground i know, but this hoss looked really promising,landing a big touch 1st time out @ Punchestown festival on decent ground. Has run 3 races prior to today travelling like a decent sort but not getting home .Benefit of wind op and drop in trip seems to have found the key. 50s is a huge price.

not interested personally in kalashnikov for the supreme . if it were real soft maybe vision des flos has a chance , but , im looking / hoping the ground will ride lively and give speed horses the chance to turn around what looks unbeatable soft ground form of the irish . hence the original posting

sharjahs chance appears to be gone , he had good ground pedigree if he turns up , maybe he can do something . i think laurina can give getabird a race regardless of ground took a bit of 60s . very likely to be going the mares route though . if the cap fits trades at under 10.0 and has to get there and then get his ground to have a good chance so the 9.2 can stay , but summerville boy is overpriced imo . he should be shorter than kalshnikov imo

interestingly as im looking about tonight at the state of play the racing colours of laurina in the antepost rp markets has been blanked , they sold beavoir dair are they about to sell laurina ? to whom ? rich ricci given the yard shes in and will that make a difference to where she goes

considering he owns getabird

Jp Manus more likely as I do not envisage Ricci buying proven hurdlers.

im trying to think . v hard ! does jp buy horses from mullins ?

answer is no he doesnt . its ricci i reckon

Jared Sullivan owns Laurina... he won't be selling.

well he sold the  champion hurdler to jp so unless you know something mortals dont i wouldnt be so sure

theres also lay money around for laurina that wasnt there a few days ago as you couldnt lay at any price . the price has also collapsed from 60s to 22

and after me saying jp doesnt buy horses off mullins , if you look at the field jp doesnt have a runner and that is surely a sore point so you may well be proved correct 123

How do you Laurina's been sold? She's a very short price fav for the Mares Novices.

sullivan is also the only owner with a history of selling top class prospects , ricci wont sell , gigginstown wont sell , rooneys wont sell . murphys would i reckon , but , i dont think jp would be making a big offer for that horse . i think he either buys laurina or claimantkinforgan the latter seems more likely . surely he will buy one of them as i cant see him sitting out the supreme without a runner . theres also 200 at 55 to lay = 11 grand on laurina . if you thought it wasnt coming here why would you want 200 on it 55

I think JP has early Doors and Le Richebourg, but £200 at 55 for Laurina is interesting though.

i dont know shes been sold 123 im just a punter but im smelling something

theres 2 quid left at 22 204 at 21 then she goes 11.5 !

£20 at 40 is easy money if she's a non-runner; she'd been backed from 500 early on.

i got her for 400 quid now ante amongst other if i knew id obv be snapping for more . despite my optimism for something in the off its most likely im stone wrong so that will do for me . luarina and summerville boy for small stakes at big prices maybe one comes off ? but i will leave this market now . both may not run so i got 20 squids hoping with good prices and ill wipe my nose and look again come the day

ps its my favourite race of the year hence my probable over enthusiasm to get the winner

The price of Summerville Boy is nearly 3x that of Kalashnikov, how bizarre is that?

This has not been a good race for me. I've only managed to back a few winners over a couple of decades eg Flown, Shadow Leader, Hors La Loi and Altior; I'm on Getabird,...on a retriever mission for backing him for the Bumper last Festival.

ya i know i think you can write off kalshnikov now he wont beat the top soft ground horses and hes just given his all at newbury . like i said earlier a fast ground horse like summerville boy or a potential buyout of laurinna is my angle to get getabird beat .

ive done ok in it if you keep poking and prodding you will get close

why are people saying Summerville Boy is a good ground horse? only wins on soft and heavy

bloob im just surmising given that his sire is a top of the ground flat horse and he doesnt have a rounded action . hes also been layed out for this ( was entered in the betfair ) but they took him out to keep him fresh for this , hes a 150 rated hurdler after just 5 career starts , beat the second fav for this race lto and is 16-1 , thats my case sir .

theres also comments from tom george the trainer " hes a very strong traveller and a quick horse "

and for 57 quid more you could make him 4-1 second fav !

ive made my nest now with summerville boy , unless he gets injured and hes sure to avoid samcro now destined to the ballymore , i see him going off 2nd or 3rd fav . obviously if you had to stake your life on this result  i would pick getabird but 16-1 is too big . if he gets there im sue he,ll be under 10-1 . best of luck

I'm now on too, listening to the trainer it does sound as though good ground is not a problem, Kalashnikov has given the form a massive boost too. I've backed 2 in the race and think I will stick with that:

Paloma Blue
Summerville Boy

both nice each way bets

All over Claimantakinforgan****gwheelbarrow at 16/1+. He was 8/1 before his defeat at Mussleborugh. Now's he more than doubled in price. Ridiculous given Muss was way to tight a strack for a horse who has more stamina than speed and was also prepping. And to be fair, the horse that beat him is now 3/3 over hurdles so the form might actually be decent. Before that he won the Grade 2 at Ascot in such easy fashion, and posted a good time figure. Think the price is huge.

Getabird for me with Paloma Blue staying on for second

ive had a good look at the silly named henderson horse too . claimantakinforgan , obv the last race was a prep and he wasnt given a hard time . no doubting its possible , but , henderson doesnt hold much faith imo his comment was surely he must be better that ! regarding his last run . the suggestion being he doesnt show hes better than that

Elliot has been reported to say Samcro will be Ballymore/Neptune bound unless conditions become extremely testing at Cheltenham which is unlikely given it is the Festival, and the nature of the course. If so, he'd be Supreme bound, I believe.

The weather forecast for next week is inclement. If the one after is the same again that could give rise to testing conditions for Cheltenham, and Samcro could be Supreme bound. What a race, if so, against Getabird?; the Ballymore/Neptune could be "gifted" to On The Blind Side, in the event. Someone's misfortune is someone else's fortune, as the saying goes.

Let's hope the weather is reasonable and fair to all.

it wont be extremely testing 123 as this will be the first race and the ground wont be opened up . chelts drains well also and knowing what may be coming they could put the sheets down to keep most of it off the track . clerk of the course always looks to have good / good/soft and im sure thats what youll get on the tuesday

they can only make the course wetter , but , they can keep the moisture off , so i dont buy samcro coming to the party , however , i did reach for one with laurina getting bought by jp and coming here . you have to imagine , as we dont know

ps laurina is still quoted by ladbrokes as a 10-1 shot and i still struggle to beleive that jp is gonna go into the race without a live contendor

With the present cold spell and precipitation on most days prior to the Festival, and on the opening day and next, according to long range forecast, we could be in for a surprise.

I'm already getting Cheltenham Festival fever and cannot wait for it to commence; just hoping most, if not all my selections, make the trip.

Keep taking the tablets for that fever

gpz. Jared Sullivan is a huge owner. He wont be selling any horse to JP.

regarding laurina . i gave that idea up ,  i am in a good position with  summerville boy and was wondering whether he could actually beat getabird or i should exit at a profit . Having analysed getabird i think theirs good reason to think that summerville boy can indeed beat getabird . His Achilles heel seems to be the fact that all his form is right handed , when put under a little pressure in his maiden at the last he  jumps noticeably out to the right and in his last hurdle race he was positioned very close to the rail jumping the last , but , again defo looked to want to go out to the right . This is gonna give him big problems at cheltenham and makes him most definitely beatable .

the only time he ever went left handed was his first ever run at liscarroll and he ran out at the second . never been left handed since .

Interesting angle and he does look plenty short enough now and the other market principals all look beatable so I'm looking for a shock result.

Vision Des Flos might be interesting but market says he might go for the Ballymore - though I think the Supreme is the better race for him and have had a bit of 33/1 nrnb.

I think Getabird will still have the edge over Mengli Khan even on level terms. I also think Summerville the same over Kalashnikov despite the latter was running with 3 shoes. The subsequent question will be is Mengli Khan more superior than Summerville and/or Kalashnikov?

If the ground is no better than soft Getabird is difficult to beat, i believe.

Soft ground start to Festival looks a strong possibility judging by long range forecast.  Drying out from Wednesday onwards throughout the week.

"nothing is set in stone but i think it likely summerville boy will go down the supreme route" .tom george today rp. a little disappointing that george didnt mention how well he was ? however , on a positive note the story was about sb rather than black op , nothing said about his well being either so i,m guessing they,re both fine . i,m taking a positive from the fact that black ops ballymore is way hotter than the supreme yet the story is summerville boy . suggesting he is there biggest chance

a few days ago menglikhan came in for support,on the basis of his last training session , numerically i can tell you that it didnt go well as his support has dried up . they dont beleive in getabird but they hope , henderson cant speak regarding his . (the big dogs )are  saying  we dont have one . its between sb and simply the betts , whoms trainer thinks he,ll run in the first half of the field .  he will run much better than that

Yep, SB been added.

Still not keen on the front of the market and with Vision Des Flos not declared I have switched to Scarlet Drgaon at 33/1 nrnb. Probably won't want it too soft but the price makes up for that.

Thought he ran an excellent race on his first attempt at Kempton under tender handling and the winner that day would surely be close to favouritsim if he were entered at Chletenham.

He reminds me a bit of Flown who was another ex-flat horse who made his jump debut in the same Kempton race before winning the Supreme.

Just two for me. They are Getabird and Mengli Khan; the former owes me from a no-show last Cheltenham, and the latter before his defeat by the former. Also, Samcro (10/1 but not nrnb) as a saver in a treble with Footpad and Might Bite.

I've got a lot of respect for Kalashnikov but Summerville Boy travelled and finished much better in the Tolworth. The former had lost a shoe but I don't think that explains him having to be pushed along as the same happened at Newbury, presumably with the full complement of footwear. SB has lost a couple of times at Cheltenham and maybe that explains his price but I'm sure those defeats were more to do with how the races were run than the track not suiting. The way he ran through the line on heavy ground at Sandown I can't see the hill holding any fears for him.

The Russian gunner has had a very hard race in the Betfair Hurdle. I also think, despite his lack of footwear, he's beaten fairly and squarely by Summerville Boy in the Tolworth Hurdle.

Mengle Khan and Getabird for a rfc.

The first race Summerville Boy lost at Cheltenham they only jumped 5 hurdles with those in the home straight omitted due to low sun so I definitely would n't be holding that against him.

That said, I still think the winner of that race, Slate House, might outrun his odds - subsequently he was trying to give Claimantakinforgan and the rest 5lbs when beaten at Ascot so he's only really run one bad race which was up in trip, on desperate ground when his stable was out of form on Festival Trials Day.

The trouble is, of course, there are plenty that you can manufacture a case for on a similar basis - so will hang fire until after final decs

9/9  5/6 yr old
9/9  4 hurdle runs
19/21  ran in same calendar year
20/21  won 50% hurdle starts
18/21  won lto
30/32  1st 3 lto
29/29  5 runs max current season
12/19  Irish trained
20/24  ran within 45 days

3/18  Only 3 favs have won from the last 18 to start 3/1 or lower.


There are enough stats to oppose all three at the head of the market.

Getabird....brings a similar profile to min,does he have the hurdling experience of previous winners from the stable,and are they concerned he can go left handed?

Kalashnikov....... fine horse,arguably beat half way up the straight in the betfair,his stamina kicked In and he came home strongly.Has he left his race there,and can the smaller stable produce him at his very best on the day.

Summerville Boy....another likeable horse,but he's been beaten a few times,comes here off a much longer break than ideal,and the stable again are not renowned for grade 1 winners.


Very open race,at much bigger odds Its easy to make a case for Paloma Blue and Slate House.Despite being regarded as the speed test for novices,at this age,these younger horses will need a degree of stamina, they will not have encountered this prolonged type of pace before.

Always maintained its the hardest race of the 4 days,the coming together of unknown types from both sides of the water,any of which can be improving rapidly as spring approaches.

Tremendous race to kick off...... plenty decent priced winners this century.

Thanks for the summary nocturnal. I wouldn't hold SBs Cheltenham defeats against him. They were both farcical races and the trainer said he improved for the stronger pace at Sandown. I glossed over what Tom George said back then but when I looked at the videos yesterday I absolutely agree with him. The break since he last ran is a concern. Not sure if that was the plan or if he had a minor setback.

How does slate house have a chance when it got battered by the hendo horse

Morning Autocue......Summerville Boy is a player,no doubt,and crucially he comes here on the back of a win,as do the other two.Any news on who is riding?,that is also interesting for me,does he use Heskin or Fehily.

Another strong stat is having big field experience,on this score Kalashnikov would have the edge,the betfair will have given Mullins an idea where he stands,bleu et rouge did not come over just for that race,that was a chance to gauge where they stand.

King......Tizzard horses been under cloud for a few months,well documented,Slate House has course form,a beating of Summerville Boy off levels,easy to dismiss both his last 2 runs,neither of which were without promise.The prep is not typical of a supreme winner, Labaik was another with a strange set figures,punters have been spoilt with a few shorties recently,I think this might be one where the layers fancy their chances.

No bet yet,the market may hold a clue raceday,48 hr decs may also give us a little more time once we have final field.

GL Both

Interesting views, i can defo see a big priced winner here....just which one...

Fehily is booked which suits me. Hadn't thought of bleu et rouge having an alternative role as a stalking horse.

Samcro has firmed up into 9 here, a ruse and/or market manipulation similar to Petit Mouchoir yesterday in the Arkle perhaps.

samcro is like a kardashian ( very sad to say ) because of his self, markets can swing . times are changing , in the past they kept to there word  ( ballymore ) . does one expect decency to the punters ?

george should be saying there wellbeing , he wanted to talk about his chaser singlefarmpayment .

im having serious doubts about sb george needs to confirm his well being on saturday

The going is a big concern for Scarlet Dragon so I have also had a score on Sharjah @ 16/1 with Skybet (money back as free bet if loses) - ran very poorly last time behind Samcro, and even before that I didn't really think Cheltenham would suit, but still not keen on any of the ones in front of him so what the heck.

current  thoughts , everyone that has betted ante expected good / g/s in places . its gonna be soft , i,m interested in any horse that shows market strength against getabird and kalashnikov whoms profiles will attract most of the money . i expect summerville boy to go off between 8-1 and 10-1 due to his profile , if there arent any pos vibes for him i plan to lay out of him and back something strong in the market outside those . if no market support materialises ie no one in rude health and sb no positivity then i go with kalshnikov

first flow looks to be shaping into that category at the moment

Min bombed; Melon bombed; Getabird to atone?

Min and Melon did not bomb.

" summerville boy is in great form everything has gone well and were looking forward to it " at last a little positivity from the trainer regarding his chance , i guess thats as enthusiastic as he gets . thats settled it from my perspective i,m allin on sb . best of luck

and as they come down the hill i see sb and getabird with kalsh looking to make up ground and then fehilly challenges on the right and getabird drags him right out and kalsh stays on to win ! noel ffs challenge him on the left if you have a horse under you and if you get beat so be it but dont straighten getabird up ffs

I thought the final furlong guys, Emmet and Kevin, provided an excellent summary of the Irish horses on this morning's opening show. The video footage of Getabird hanging right was an eye opener for me and I'm happy to stick with Summerville Boy.

Great shout gpz6316 - enjoy your winnings.

Amazing he could win after those mistakes - bet you’d given up after two out.

Well done op and backers very rare to win a championship race after a mistake like that

'gpz6316, very well done! The form line with Kalashnikov was solid.

Tolworth Hurdle was key.

Maybe Yorkhill and Finians Oscar can follow suit.

Great training performance as well to bring him fresh.

i was just coming to say well lucky me . then read the fake news thread of whipping willy . people that were interested have commentated on a regular basis on this thread then i see fake whippin willy cherry picking a few comments and making out he was god or something . shame , over 2 months looking forward to the race that guy has never commented , fact . the whole thread proves it . sorry to be a bit pi ssed after such a good result . its like a guy runs onto the pitch at the end or something and says hes captain . first time i ever saw this , someone hijacking what i said

ive never agreed a word with tefal head but road to respect will win the gold cup

congrats  to all that contributed to what proved to be an imformative conversation and forget what irked . life is too short to be bitter . and now on to the next winner in aceys stayers thread . best of luck

What the feck? I actually back my own opinion with money! You will pleased to know I gave a bit back on Acey Milan in the bumper.

2018-03-13
13:39    116107249798    2018-02-10
15:50    GB Chelt 13th Mar / Supreme Novices Hurdle / Summerville Boy
Back         23.00

2018-03-13
13:39    116107383590    2018-02-10
15:51    GB Chelt 13th Mar / Supreme Novices Hurdle / Summerville Boy
Back         23.00

2018-03-13
13:39    117477770125    2018-02-24
20:26    GB Chelt 13th Mar / Supreme Novices Hurdle / Summerville Boy
Back         14.50

Whippin Piccadilly 10 Feb 18 15:48 Joined: 02 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 3,187 | Blogger: Whippin Piccadilly's blog
I've backed him for the Supreme


gpz6316 12 Feb 18 21:17 Joined: 28 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 603 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
sharjahs chance appears to be gone , he had good ground pedigree if he turns up , maybe he can do something . i think laurina can give getabird a race regardless of ground took a bit of 60s . very likely to be going the mares route though . if the cap fits trades at under 10.0 and has to get there and then get his ground to have a good chance so the 9.2 can stay , but summerville boy is overpriced imo . he should be shorter than kalshnikov imo

Now pipe down!

Summerville ran the same time as Buveur D'air in the Champion, only carrying 3lb less, and making mistakes too. I know they had the fresh ground but that is mightily impressive

I was confident at 4 out he would win but after 2 out I thought he might be in the first 6 at best! Did well to overcome another sloppy jump at the last and real in the very likable Kalashnikov. Summerville Boy must be a seriously good horse and his performance is backed up with the time recorded.

*reel