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gpz6316
30 Jan 18 21:11
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Date Joined: 28 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 1,077 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
not so long ago it was widely suggested to look for ex flat horses for a speed angle over nh types . 2015 douvan by "walk in the park" whose best form was second in the derby to motivator on good ground , 2016 altior by high chaparral won the derby on gs but certainly handled gf , 2017 labaik by montmatre a grand prix de paris winner on good ground .  sharjah will be a lot shorter than the 8-1  if he wins on sunday ,  evs to do so and summerville boy at 16-1 seem to fit the bill

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Replies: 102
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Feb 18 10:36
Could Samcro be heading here instead of the Ballymore/Neptune? He's not been declared for the Nathaniel Lacy over 2m 5f but could possibly run in the Deloitte over 2m 2f instead; he's also been scratched from the Irish Champion Hurdle.
By:
the bloob
When: 01 Feb 18 18:21
I am hoping so, took some 8/1 nrnb a couple of weeks ago, I'm crossing my fingers that Getabird then goes in the Ballymore

my ideal scenario is Samcro wins easily in the Deloitte and they decide to go Supreme, Mullins gets scared and puts Getabird in the Ballymore leaving Sharjah as the sacrificial lamb in the Supreme
By:
gpz6316
When: 01 Feb 18 20:42
i didnt think that getabird would be coming to the party and he fits the 1m4f fast ground sire profile . samcro by germany doesnt though . mullins talked about wanting slow ground for sharjah on sunday ,  mindgames ?. the dam is a good ground horse as is the sire , hes , just come off a fall though and i wouldnt be surprised given that its a very hot race that he may not be off ! on sunday . elliott is making all the right noises about samcro for sunday . i think he will win well , expect sharjah to run a race of promise
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Feb 18 20:51
I think Mullins and Gigginstown will leave both horses in both races ie Supreme and Ballymore/Neptune, and possibly wait for the other to blink 1st. And by the way, one of the O'leary brothers had advised punters "not to read anything into the fact his sunday mission is over 2m as all Cheltenham options are open for him still, but he's likely to step up in trip for the Ballymore/Neptune after this."

However, Sharjah could be the benchmark of the ability of Samcro post sunday.
By:
gpz6316
When: 01 Feb 18 21:03
thks 123 , as for sommerville boy . his rep is gonna be big upped or downed next saturday in the gold trophy by kalashnikov whom i think will win it , and ive backed him to do so btw .
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Feb 18 06:54
Hope the horses that ran in the Tolworth jump better than they did that day.
Personally would not back any of that lot in a top class competitive race.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Feb 18 12:57
The two most exciting novice hurdlers are Samcro and Getabird, the former winning his races effortlessly, and the latter utmost impressive in his last race and on former bumper form. And I do not believe they will meet in this year's Festival.
By:
gpz6316
When: 07 Feb 18 20:46
i think connections of samcro are seriously considering a tilt at the champion , two days after it was proposed in the press now and theyve not ruled it out .
By:
gpz6316
When: 07 Feb 18 20:52
thoughts run back to valiramix , whom was cantering , hed have won it doing handstands but for breaking down and alderbrook did win it so its defo dooable
By:
the bloob
When: 08 Feb 18 20:09
seriously? Champion Hurdle? I can't find Samcro in the betting anywhere
By:
gpz6316
When: 08 Feb 18 20:32
ya seriously gordon is now saying he favours the ballymore ! of course he does  , but , does the owner ?
By:
gpz6316
When: 08 Feb 18 20:43
silence speaks a thousand words as they say . hed beat buveir dair imo . isnt this kind of thing what owners dream about ?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Feb 18 21:02
The owner's interview with Matt Chapman on Sunday (albeit specific to Apple's Jade) would lead you to believe he is a pragmatist - he wants Festival winners and so is likely to choose what he considers to be the weakest race. His actions to date also suggest he has a lot of faith in Elliott.

Obviously there's little downside to backing him NRNB for the Champion Hurdle if you can get a price.

I see nothing other than media or punter speculation to suggest he's not going to run in the Ballymore.
By:
the bloob
When: 08 Feb 18 21:06
the owner said Ballymore after the race on Sunday, and he has said that all along

he is the sort of person that the more people pressurise him to do something, the more he will stick to his guns. He would lose a lot of face by changing his mind now, especially if it looked like he had given way to popular demand
By:
Big Black Cat
When: 10 Feb 18 11:32
I backed Valirimix that day-would have won in a common canter...McCoy said so himself.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Feb 18 19:28
The winner of yesterday's Betfair Hurdle Kalashnikov looks destined here. My concern would be will he have the pace to keep up especially on good ground bearing in mind his jockey was fairly animated early on just staying in touch? I understand he pulled away on the run-in winning like a handicap snip but I think some of his protagonists did not turn up yesterday given atrocious ground condition.

The Ballymore is not much of an option either with Samcro and On The Blind Side in contention.
By:
geoff m
When: 11 Feb 18 20:10
Vision Des Flos knocked the eye out @ Exeter today time looked decent compared with rest of hurdles card.Heavy ground i know, but this hoss looked really promising,landing a big touch 1st time out @ Punchestown festival on decent ground. Has run 3 races prior to today travelling like a decent sort but not getting home .Benefit of wind op and drop in trip seems to have found the key. 50s is a huge price.
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 20:38
not interested personally in kalashnikov for the supreme . if it were real soft maybe vision des flos has a chance , but , im looking / hoping the ground will ride lively and give speed horses the chance to turn around what looks unbeatable soft ground form of the irish . hence the original posting
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 21:17
sharjahs chance appears to be gone , he had good ground pedigree if he turns up , maybe he can do something . i think laurina can give getabird a race regardless of ground took a bit of 60s . very likely to be going the mares route though . if the cap fits trades at under 10.0 and has to get there and then get his ground to have a good chance so the 9.2 can stay , but summerville boy is overpriced imo . he should be shorter than kalshnikov imo
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 21:30
interestingly as im looking about tonight at the state of play the racing colours of laurina in the antepost rp markets has been blanked , they sold beavoir dair are they about to sell laurina ? to whom ? rich ricci given the yard shes in and will that make a difference to where she goes
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 21:32
considering he owns getabird
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Feb 18 22:53
Jp Manus more likely as I do not envisage Ricci buying proven hurdlers.
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 22:58
im trying to think . v hard ! does jp buy horses from mullins ?
By:
gpz6316
When: 12 Feb 18 23:07
answer is no he doesnt . its ricci i reckon
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 13 Feb 18 12:58
Jared Sullivan owns Laurina... he won't be selling.
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 20:44
well he sold the  champion hurdler to jp so unless you know something mortals dont i wouldnt be so sure
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 21:18
theres also lay money around for laurina that wasnt there a few days ago as you couldnt lay at any price . the price has also collapsed from 60s to 22
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 21:24
and after me saying jp doesnt buy horses off mullins , if you look at the field jp doesnt have a runner and that is surely a sore point so you may well be proved correct 123
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Feb 18 21:43
How do you Laurina's been sold? She's a very short price fav for the Mares Novices.
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 21:48
sullivan is also the only owner with a history of selling top class prospects , ricci wont sell , gigginstown wont sell , rooneys wont sell . murphys would i reckon , but , i dont think jp would be making a big offer for that horse . i think he either buys laurina or claimantkinforgan the latter seems more likely . surely he will buy one of them as i cant see him sitting out the supreme without a runner . theres also 200 at 55 to lay = 11 grand on laurina . if you thought it wasnt coming here why would you want 200 on it 55
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Feb 18 22:14
I think JP has early Doors and Le Richebourg, but £200 at 55 for Laurina is interesting though.
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 22:28
i dont know shes been sold 123 im just a punter but im smelling something
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 22:29
theres 2 quid left at 22 204 at 21 then she goes 11.5 !
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Feb 18 22:33
£20 at 40 is easy money if she's a non-runner; she'd been backed from 500 early on.
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 22:38
i got her for 400 quid now ante amongst other if i knew id obv be snapping for more . despite my optimism for something in the off its most likely im stone wrong so that will do for me . luarina and summerville boy for small stakes at big prices maybe one comes off ? but i will leave this market now . both may not run so i got 20 squids hoping with good prices and ill wipe my nose and look again come the day
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 22:41
ps its my favourite race of the year hence my probable over enthusiasm to get the winner
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Feb 18 22:44
The price of Summerville Boy is nearly 3x that of Kalashnikov, how bizarre is that?
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Feb 18 22:50
This has not been a good race for me. I've only managed to back a few winners over a couple of decades eg Flown, Shadow Leader, Hors La Loi and Altior; I'm on Getabird,...on a retriever mission for backing him for the Bumper last Festival.
By:
gpz6316
When: 13 Feb 18 22:55
ya i know i think you can write off kalshnikov now he wont beat the top soft ground horses and hes just given his all at newbury . like i said earlier a fast ground horse like summerville boy or a potential buyout of laurinna is my angle to get getabird beat .
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