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Welsh National Chepstow - 27th December
Welsh National Chepstow - 27th December
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Replies: 120
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Received reply from WH. I had been advised incorrectly. My bet should have stood as the race was to be rescheduled.
It has been reinstated. |
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So. Here we go again, take two and all that..
5 day decs out tomorrow and no doubt quite a few of these will be taken out. Thankfully my Mysteree bet at 25-1 and 16-1 on Wild West Wind still stands (good to see he didnt take up his entries over the weekend). Still think Houblon Des Obeaux can play a part given he hit the frame off a 10lb higher mark on his first run of the season last year and ran better than it looks at Sandown last time. The extra week will be in his favour. Will wait until tomorrow but feel that 25-1 is a fair price to hit the frame again at least. Quite a few put up Milansbar and his odds did noticeably contract overnight before the original race. I get it to a degree but cant help noticing how he easily drops out if he clouts one, which you really cant do in this race. He is well handicapped though and did I imagine it or were first time cheekpeices set to be deployed, which he looked like he needed after his last run. Lets just hope the race is on this time! |
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No ante post market on here yet? My Betair ap bet has been cancelled so ready to back Wild West Wind again.
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only Splash Of Ginge (ran yesterday) and Sir Mangan missing from original runners on Dec 27th at 5 day stage...
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Torrential rain storms across the country over next few days. Could the race be lost once again ?
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Outlook for Friday to Sunday
Cloudy on Friday with showers, perhaps turning wintry over hills. Feeling very cold on Saturday in brisk winds, a chance of rain in the south. Dry, bright and cold Sunday. |
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I would still put the chance of racing at less than 50%. I live 50 miles south of there and every field for miles around is under water. Wincanton could also be in doubt.
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does emperors choice get a penalty from his win inbetween the postponed race and the new date?
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4lb extra...racing post site.
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HDO looking likely to go to Sandown for the veterans race rather than Chepstow so can forget him.
Folsom Blue looks a likely NR and Hobss is warning Rock The Kasbah may not run, so given the confidence Neil King is showing behind Milansbar and confirming he wears cheekpieces i think I'll fire my 3rd and last arrow at him at 16-1. Fingers crossed its on!! |
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Well.....what do we have here?
Folsom Blue was announced non runner yesterday on ATR,info given via Gary Obrien who is part owner,yet last night he was still in 11 of the 23 books quoted on oddschecker? He was also matched on here at 60 and upwards. Now we have Rock The Kasbah,on the same ground as indicated in original race,heavy,possibly not taking up his entry,yet right now he is still available to back in most books? Two different scenarios,in the case of Folsom Blue this news has come from a respected owner/reporter,and that transparency has to be applauded,bad luck for all concerned it happens so close to the race. As for RTK,well something does not seem right here,this horse has been vying for favouritism since the A/Post market was formed,yet only now, they feel he might not like the ground ? Some layers removed FB yesterday,others have not,questions need answering here. There has to be some common ground here,who is at fault is open to question,should the trainer be scratching the horse,probably in an Ideal world. The bottom line is some people may have backed FB yesterday,yet he had already been announced as a nonner, this surely cannot be right? Add in the Samcro case,these scenarios are happening way too often,taking a stance pre race is one thing,having no chance whatsoever of getting a run,thats completely different. Integrity is banded around daily,with good reason. Thoughts Anyone ? |
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I expect the RTK decison is really about the stable form which is horrendous - as is Jessica Harrington and look how well Sizing Johns ran at Chirstmas.
If I was the owner I would definitely rule RTK out and save him until the signs were better as a oor run over 3m5f on bottomless ground could end his season. |
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20 decs and no RTK. Uncle hit the nail on the head regarding stable form. Could really harm a young chaser if its under a cloud in this ground.
See Emperors Choice has snuck in at the bottom. Surely not.... |
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Also interesting that Tom George has put Adrian Heskin up on Wild West Wind. Gethings rode him to victory last time and was due to ride him again in the original race as Heskin was riding at Kempton but now has to make way for the stable jockey.
The upshot being the horse effectively has a 7lb penalty taking into consideration Gethings claim. Confidence or stupidity... |
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I put up Alfie Spinner on this thread before the welsh national trail. He was a good second to Wild West Wind in that and has a massive 12lb pull on WWW for just a length and a half. You could argue Alfie Spinner was the stronger at the finish and this is over an extra 3/4 of a mile !!
The extreme ground and trip can only be in its favour in race the trainer excels. Obviously hard work for a 13yo, but not many miles on the clock and I am happy with the 50/1 e/w. |
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I've previously been on Bishops Road and Vicente, but I have now also backed Silsol and On the Road
Silsol has some very good form before injury and goes on soft, to be thrown in to a race like this must be a positive sign, decent 5lb claimer on board too On The Road looks like a potential plot, goes on soft too, been ran over hurdles to protect handicap mark, top class claimer on board. I had my eye on this before the original race but he didn't get in, now that he's got in I've got to have a bet. Also there is a good trend in this race for 7 and 8 year olds carrying under 11 stone, the only doubt is the trip but they clearly think he will stay as plenty of alternative races over shorter |
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Good points The Bloob
Stick with Silsol,if there is one with a stack in hand,its potentially him. Same claimer booked,this could be a race where jockeys will have to really be mindful of pace,will be interesting to see what sort of gallop they go first circuit. Also like On The Road for reasons above,right age and weight,stamina yet to be proven. R D Maree....take out NR last year and he romped it,saver material only,again if he jumps well enough,he should be ok on deep ground. Always an intriguing race,with that seemingly endless home straight. |
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can't believe I said Vicente, meant to write Vintage Clouds, must have been pi ssed! just to clarify the 4 I've backed are:
Bishops Road Vintage Clouds Silsol On the Road |
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I had an AP on Final Nudge which was returned. After going through the declared field I have landed on Emperors Choice ew at 20s with Patrick. Won the race in 2014 off 131. In today off 128 less 3lb claim. Trip/ground will be fine and bottom weight which will help. GL
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As a layer the two with the least chance in this have both been mentioned. Emperors choice,tough race in december bound to
of taken plenty out of his legs. Silsol, how can people back this? chase form? jockey is good but still learning the game so bound to feel pressure and that is acceptable at her stage of career, the more expirienced jockies have a huge edge. Good luck everyone. |
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And if either wins the **** will post a smiley .
Done any more charity work lately? |
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Try Tinder next time it is cheaper that toys for single mums.
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what on earth are you wittering about?
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i dont recall using smilies they ate for the jokers.
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Fancy about 8 of them!
In the end I've had a small win only bet on Raz De Maree and backed Bishops Road and Final Nudge each way. I think Vintage Clouds still has untapped potential and it would n't be the biggest surprise to see Firebird Flyer return to form in these conditions but I've resisted the temptation to back either of them. Good luck! |
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Wide open and could back loads of them but settled on Raz de maree and Vintage Clouds each way. One maybe too old and the other maybe too young.
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Emperors my main bet
Silsol Firebird Rathlin...... fun bets at nice odds. |
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Very well played FELTFAIR
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WD Nocturnal and ReaseHeath too
 Mysteree never in the the race at any stage. Very disappointing. |
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Backed Mysteree at Plumpton last year and he never went a yard. Think he likes flat tracks.
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Absolute whitewash.
Mysteree never went a yard (still feel the stable is under a cloud - one winner since early december and that was in a 7 runner race where he ran 3!) Thought Wild West Wind was jumping and traveling like the winner when he fell - bringing down Milansbar in the process... Well done anyone who had the nerve to back two 13 year olds - in particular Equine Flew who flagged up Alfie Spinner at 50-1 early doors, very unlucky not to collect on the win. Back to the drawing board for me.... |
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Final Nudge jumped and travelled really well but looking at final field and 11st 5lb it was always gonna be a tough ask. Beaten by horses ridden by top 5lb claiming jocks, ante-post doesn't get any easier for me.
Well done all who won on race. |
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trainer reported 'chase the spud' was examined by vet and shown to have ataxia . not sure what this is, googled and looks like balance ,co-ordination problem.
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I thought Firebird Flyer was beginning to stay on nicely when he fell , very possibly put off by the fall of Wild West Wind to his right.
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Thanks Facts.....Well played RH/FELT and EF
RDM...Outstayed them,very similar run to 2016,not sure what penalty he will get,5-7lb would probably get him in April,if they go that route.If it were to come up soft at Aintree, in this sort of form,he would go to post with a live chance,couple of other races being considered according to stable. Silsol......Ran his race,not good enough at the weights,lost some ground at that ridiculous starting point on the bend,jumped really well out of that ground. Very few miles on the clock,big step in the right direction,something like the scottish version possibly,although Vicente looks nailed on to go there for the stable,interesting to see where he goes from here. Three claimers in the top five,encyclopedias written on horses staying,nothing on jockey stamina? Just over 8 minutes racing,does age come into it more over the longer distances,add the claim into the argument,hard work for both jockey/horse,something to ponder going forward. |
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Thanks, Facts and noc - well done all winners...
Vintage Clouds would be the one I'd take out the race with Aintree in mind (he's only 8yo so potentially a few shots at it!)Was surprised he got back up for 4th after seeming to be on the retreat (albeit only 7 finished). Both his trainer and his sire have already won a Grand National but, more pertinently, I think he'd appreciate better ground. Of the also-rans Milansbar, Mysteree, Emperors Choice and On The Road are all entered in the Classic Choice at Warwick (latter two did n't get very far at Chepstow). |
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I think you maybe onto something there Noc. They interviewed Aspel after he had managed to coax a tune out that rogue Buywise in the Veterans Chase, it was about three minutes after they had finished and he was still blowing out of his ar5e! Perhaps these marathon events do suit the fitter lads?
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Hi Desmond
Most threads I have seen suggest 5%-20% races decided by jockeyship.In certain races,within both codes,my own view would be the complete opposite,nearer 80% are won/lost within the last few fences, or furlongs,whether that be jumps/flat. Message sent. Noc |
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christ missed milansbar today .
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