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unclepuncle
09 Nov 17 06:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,375 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Entires now out.

Have taken a chance that Mullins will do the right thing and run Djakadam here rather than give him another pointless campaign aimed at the Gold Cup that he doesn't stay well enough to win.
He finally did the same thing with Florida PearlLove so hopefully lightning strikes twice.

1pt @ 25/1
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Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 18, 2017 4:02 PM GMT
Matter of time i suppose LoveTongue Out
Report Fashion Fever December 19, 2017 12:40 AM GMT
hope might bite is a decent price boxing day morning will certainly be tucking in plenty will have far to much speed for BDM, and is clearly in a different postcode to whisper on trainer comments, on the likely good side of soft

defies logic for thistlecrack to win after the hurdles run, the pillar last year I believe has bottomed the horse, I won't believe he will  even run till he's at the start
Report ReaseHeath December 20, 2017 12:45 PM GMT
Confirmations:

Bristol De Mai
Disko
Double Shuffle
Fox Norton
Might Bite
Outlander
Tea For Two
Thistlecrack
Traffic Fluide
Whisper

Most high profile absentees Djakadam, Cue Card and Top Notch.

Personally not yet convinced Disko will turn up either despite him being this week's media ramp horse...
Report dunlaying December 20, 2017 12:49 PM GMT
We could be in for a treat. Tea For Two looks overpriced at 25/1.
Report unclepuncle December 20, 2017 1:25 PM GMT
Can't have Whisper going right handed.

Can't have BDM on decent'ish ground.

Can't have Fox Norton at the trip.

Can't have Tea For Two after he finished so legless last time - fair e/w shout but for that.

Can't have Traffic Fluide or Double Shuffle as simply not good enough.

Assuming Outlander stays in Ireland that leaves Might Bite, Thistlecrack and Disko.

I'd get no satisfaction from backing Might Bite at 7/4 even though he is the most likely winner so it's Thistlecrack @ 7/1 and a saver on Disko @ 12/1 for me.
Report woodmanchester December 20, 2017 1:50 PM GMT
On at 33/1 Might Bite
Report The Dragon December 20, 2017 4:18 PM GMT
on disko ew at 33/1 and also bascked ew for gold cup at 25/1

on whisper at 12/1
Report firstimevisor December 20, 2017 5:28 PM GMT
Didn't get any fancy prices but I'm happy to get involved in the same 2 , whisper and disko, today
Report FOYLESWAR December 20, 2017 6:50 PM GMT
not a lot of rain forecast for the next week or so  in the south  ,temps to be around 9-10 degrees tommoz  and getting milder ! quite possible  no worse than  good to soft  come boxing day ?
Report buddeliea December 20, 2017 7:25 PM GMT
Rain forecast on Boxing Day Foyles
Report FOYLESWAR December 20, 2017 7:53 PM GMT
much budd ?
Report buddeliea December 20, 2017 8:21 PM GMT
Looks like light rain between 2-4 mm,but not sure what time mate!!
Report FOYLESWAR December 20, 2017 8:26 PM GMT
yeah seen that now ,cheers bud!
Report harry callaghan December 21, 2017 4:00 PM GMT
disko out of the race
Report ReaseHeath December 21, 2017 4:51 PM GMT
ReaseHeath • December 20, 2017 12:45 PM GMT

Personally not yet convinced Disko will turn up either despite him being this week's media ramp horse...


Mission accomplished for the racing media and the bookies.
Report impossible123 December 21, 2017 9:25 PM GMT
Might Bite is hot, as short as 6/5 but generally 11/8 available. With Disko confined to Ireland could Hendo have 1st and 2nd, but in which order though?
Report Fashion Fever December 21, 2017 10:26 PM GMT
3.55 disks a place sat there when the site reopened
Report FOYLESWAR December 22, 2017 9:30 AM GMT
fashion fever what did hendo say about mite bite and whisper on his trainer comments ? thanks
Report Fashion Fever December 22, 2017 5:15 PM GMT
foyles he commented on a racing post video that whisper had to go to the KG as he couldn't go for hcaps anymore given his ridiculous mark,  but wasn't in the same league as might bite
Report FOYLESWAR December 22, 2017 5:43 PM GMT
cheers ff, just what i wanted to hear !
Report betilyerded December 22, 2017 9:34 PM GMT
Have to say Uncle that your your original post made plenty of sense and is the play i would have made if i thought that Mullins had an ounce of bottle about him.

Djakadam could really have been a player in this race and was no 25-1 poke when you made your selection.

Its now Might Bites race to lose IMO. Unlucky call.
Report the bloob December 22, 2017 9:55 PM GMT
the weather forecast looks dry apart from Xmas day, when there will be a bit of rain. Going currently Good to Soft, Soft in places

I doubt the going will change much based on the forecast, should be fine for Might Bite, and nowhere near soft enough for Bristol de Mai

I really can't understand the money for Thistlecrack, coming back from an injury and very disappointing last time, it's hard to imagine winning a race like this with a prep like that. Even at his peak last year I don't think he would be good enough to win this year's renewal
Report woodmanchester December 23, 2017 5:26 PM GMT
Harry let the Thistlecrack form down too

Come on Might Bite! Excited
Report cvbyrne. December 24, 2017 1:02 PM GMT
Might Bite is a very solid fav for this. He was going to win by 15 or 20l in the Kauto Star last year when he fell. He then clearly had enough to win the RSA by 20l. He then beat Whisper who at that horses fav track and fav meeting at Aintree. I don't think he's quirky to the fact of being ungenuine or a difficult ride, he got lonely in the RSA is all.

I think the Ladbrokes Trophy was a poor race. Whisper didn't improve imo to come 2nd merely ran to form. I see no reason Whisper would reverse form with Might Bite if both run their races.

Thistlecrack could easily come and a ton for his run lto where it looked like he blew up racing fit horses. But he could easily have regressed as many do after tendon injuries. Though this c&d is his optimum imv. I don't know how good his form reads though when reviewing it either. Even at his best last year is he good enough?

Bristol De Mai will probably find this happening too quick, 3m on decent ground at Kempton. Also what did he beat lto. Look at Un De Sceaux some horses can dance through the mud but then are a stone worse when on a sounder surface. Could have improved this season though as he's still only 6 rising 7

Fox Norton could well improve for the step up to 3miles but it's an unknown especially at the gallop this is run at. If he gets the trip he could be a big player as his most impressive performance has come when run over 2m4f in the Melling.

Tea for Two, Double Shuffle & Traffic Fluide here to pick up the crumbs and some prize money.

I can't see how Might Bite loses if he runs to the form he did in last years Kauto and he won't be thrown at the last this time under Nico like Jacob did that day. Fox Norton ranks the main danger if he gets the trip, with Bristol De Mai next if he's improved.
Report Callisto-moon December 24, 2017 7:28 PM GMT
Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry.
Report Callisto-moon December 24, 2017 7:28 PM GMT
Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2017 12:21 PM GMT
Took on the favourite with Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Thistlecrack.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2017 12:25 PM GMT
Took on the favourite with Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Thistlecrack.
Report Alkeyhole December 26, 2017 1:11 PM GMT
The more I look at this the more Thistlecrack looks a screaming ew bet.

Good winner last year, his hd defeat was to a superb stayer & his return on hurdles was virtually schooling in public.  Huge at 8/1 & I suspect he may be plunged on.
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 3:34 PM GMT
Well done 'woodmanchester', 33/1 Might Bite!
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 4:14 PM GMT
With the defeat of BDM and £1m bonus no longer, will Top Notch be campaigned over 3m next? 100 here, if so.
Report FOYLESWAR December 26, 2017 7:21 PM GMT
yeah very well done woodmanchester
Report betilyerded December 26, 2017 7:58 PM GMT
Calisto-moon

Re Double Shuffle: Twitchy bum time?

Hats off to Henderson. That horse was ridden like it wasnt in a race, let it do its own thing, kept wide and just jump, jump, jump.

My immediate impression regarding the Gold Cup was that he was out on his feet and wont get up the hill but in hindsight the Gold Cup will be a different day on different ground on a different course and the tactics will be different again. What a feckin trainer he is.
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 8:37 PM GMT
I think the winner Might Bite (MB), despite looking as if he was coming back to the 2nd and 3rd at the finish, he was idling infront after leading from 3 fences out. If he could be towed, and only let loose at the penultimate or last fence he would run all the way up the Cheltenham hill, I believe; 8/1 before the King George Chase and 13/2 post the race is an unbelievable price, I reckon.

Either Sizing John and more importantly Yorkhill has to win the Lexus on thursday otherwise the price of MB will surely contract.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2017 1:24 AM GMT
Callisto-moon
24 Dec 17 19:28
Joined: 08 Aug 16
| Topic/replies: 1,246 | Blogger: Callisto-moon's blog
Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry.


i can only think this was a brutal result callisto unless it was just the win lay...still fair play to have such a strong opinion so try and keep your chin up if your not hanging from it, i think i would be and my rope recently is very well usedMischief
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2017 7:27 AM GMT
harry ! callisto moon aka moneytree is rumoured to do the oppositt of what he tips i. "i am laying the hind legs off double shuffle " probably translates to "i am backing the ar$e off double shuffle win and place " and when you think about it you would have to put untold money on to win a cup of tea who would have that kind of bankroll ? ........my guess is he backed the horse win and place and  god knows what price he was on here think i saw 150 win market a few days ago ,he has had a right touch on the place market !
Report unclepuncle December 27, 2017 8:09 AM GMT
Definitely a weak race and everything went perfectly for Might Bite - got a nice tow from BDM and jumped very well with no serious errors and yet he was all out to beat two exposed types. Not saying he can't win a Gold Cup and at least he hasn't been made a silly short price.

A load of the runners should not have been there and were just vanity runners for their dumb trainers and owners.

Whisper should never have run as he is rubbish right handed (why not just wait for the Pillar? Sorry Nicky but that was a dumb decsion?).

Fox Norton should never have run over 3m. Tizzard doesnt seem to have a clue. He ran perfectly OK in the Tingle Creek but for the mistake at the first which put him on the back foot and may well have cost him the win. Should have aimed at Leopardstown today or waited for the Clarence House.

And BDM is a Haydock heavy ground small field bully and would have been better off aiming at the Welsh National if they wanted to run him over Christmas as it's a good race for front running sloggers (Carvills Hill and Native River won it under top weight). All the waffle about the £1m bonus doesn't wash - though NTD has a habit of chasing rainbows.

The importance of acting at the track was highlighted by the excellent runs of the second and third who have superb records at Kempton.
We hear about it all the time when it comes to Cheltenham but nobody seems to think it is important at Kempton - Imperial Commander and even Best Mate were classic examples of horses who ran way below their best at Kempton.
Report nocturnal December 28, 2017 1:36 AM GMT
Fine post Uncle.....agree with all of that,form wise surely more questions than answers?

The official ratings pre race (OR)

M BITE 162
D SHUFFLE 151
T F TWO 164
TH CRACK 170
WHISPER 169
B D MAI 173
F NORTON 168
T FLUIDE 153

It will interesting to see what ratings are given following this race.
Clearly if we use the official handicappers ratings,something is not quite right?
Three of the lowest rated horses in the race,have filled the first three places.

For anyone using the OR, this race and the result begs the question,just exactly who is responsible for these ratings,and how can they be so wildly wrong in this instance?
This is not new territory,punters and form students alike,have been questioning the marks given to some horses,and the consequences these inflated marks have on racing in general.
Level weights graded races are different,but the continuing over-reaction to some performances inevitably must spill over into handicapping,about time this was addressed.

Couple points regarding the race,watching it back without the sound,(the modern day commentator has in many cases become a form/race tactic expert),that the front three at the finnish all raced wide of the running rail,whether de boing boing had done his homework,it was noticeable up the final straight how he kept MB away from the far rail.
This looked to be the case in the 3m novice as well,F Windfall on the outside of the field travelled really well before falling,was the ground better a few yards off the rail?

The other point follows on from Uncles post,just how many horses are better going right handed than left?
Anyone looked at their own results over a period of time?,something I touched on last year in the ante-post thread,I think far less horses appear to run to form going right handed,than left.
Not got any conclusive figures yet,any thoughts welcomed.

Plenty to ponder after this race.
Report dunlaying December 28, 2017 1:17 PM GMT
There is not much wrong with the form . Double Shuffle was expected to improve and he did. The winner ran to around 3 lb below his previous best.
Report Swagger December 28, 2017 10:06 PM GMT
I also think Mite Bite was at it a long way out whereas the second and third were held up off the pace. Bristol was making mistakes up top as well so on the face of it, they were probably going a fair lick. Impressive win, well done all winners.
Report FOYLESWAR December 29, 2017 4:16 PM GMT
imo mite bite is better going left handed ,ok i know he was hosing up in the feltham but that was not the best race tbh ,also the undulations at chelt seem to suit better than a flatish track so could improve a lot going back left handed .
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 4:30 PM GMT
Right-handed or left-handed track,...please do not even go there. It is sufficiently difficult to pick winners on level weight, conducive ground and formlines without bringing an additional factor into the equation; either a horse wins or it does not, all things being equal. Keep it simple!
Report unclepuncle December 29, 2017 4:36 PM GMT
impossible123 29 Dec 17 16:30 
Right-handed or left-handed track,...please do not even go there. Either a horse wins or it does not, all things being equal.



If ever a post was made to make someone look an utter idiot (not that he needs much help) this is it.CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy
Report impossible123 August 29, 2019 6:11 PM BST
Oh dear! A new sponsor for the race - it's 'Ladcrookes' for the next 5 years. Will anyone be able to get on after their PR Eclipse revelation at Sandown recently? Why does horse racing not able to attract sponsorship other than from bookies? Is it because the bookies are the only entities able to outbid unrelated/external entities?

Or is the game too toxic only the bookies can afford and too willing to be associated with? At this rate post my time following the sport horse racing/betting could account for a tiny portion of their business model.
Report impossible123 September 7, 2019 1:26 PM BST
I hope Altior turns up for this year's renewal as he'd be very special come Cheltenham esp if he wins this well. And, along with Tiger Roll (National) these two National Hunt behemoths could once again help to light up the entire jump season; Klassical Dream could be another one, and Samcro if he regains his early promise prior to his lung infection diagnosis.
Report sageform September 22, 2019 10:34 AM BST
I would love to see a market to name the winning trainer. I would be on Nicholls but which horse? Cyrname might not stay but he would beat Clan des Obeaux if he does imo. Both have the KG as their main target which helps while Altior might stay over 2 miles again. Colin Tizzard has 3 or 4 that could be placed but none of them look quite good enough to win.
Report impossible123 September 22, 2019 3:12 PM BST
This is the race earmarked for Altior unless he bombs out in the Christy Chase over 2m 5f at Ascot on Nov 23 - if so, back to Champion Chase, according to Hendo. Otherwise The Gold Cup would be under serious consideration.
Report sageform September 23, 2019 4:03 PM BST
Yes I read that yesterday, I can see where they are coming from as he does seem to take a while to get into top gear.
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 10:49 AM BST
I hope he wins the Christy Chase over 2m 5f well on Nov 23rd, and heads to Kempton on Boxing Day with confidence - he already has class in abundance; 11/4 is the present price. Then the Gold Cup (hopefully).
Report impossible123 October 19, 2019 6:02 PM BST
The Flat season is over (just Doncaster next week) and forget about Breeders Cup. So, let's focus on the sticks. Will Altior be just as accomplished over this distance as he's been over 16f? He's going to the Christy Chase next month as a prelude (if it goes well) for this race; he's 3.65 to back here.
Report FOYLESWAR November 3, 2019 10:24 AM GMT
the form of the jlt won by defi de seul is looking red hot ,lostingtranslation ,vindication ( off 151)
)both winning since and capeland a long way back would have gone close yesterday at ascot but for the chaos at the last .
Report FOYLESWAR November 3, 2019 3:08 PM GMT
lostingtrans goes in again at carlilse
Report impossible123 November 3, 2019 6:30 PM GMT
A very good display of jumping from Lostintranslation, and he easily overwhelmed his oppositions. He's destined here post Betfair Chase then
the Blue Riband  - £1m bonus if victorious in all 3. I think this trip might still be too sharp for him, but I do like him a lot for The Gold Cup at Cheltenham next March.
Report FOYLESWAR November 3, 2019 8:50 PM GMT
looking at the possibles we have the front 2 not proven over the trip, last years winner looks pretty solid but around 6/1 after a good run in ire , mullins dont send many to kempton ,lostintrans also a bit short imo, la bague au r dint cover herself in glory getting weight on sat , frodon trip? mite bite issues + hard race in last years gold cup seems to have left a mark  ?  bris de mai had a few gos at the kg , big price tho   and if wins betfair chase  price drops  have had a few she kles on .
Report unclepuncle November 3, 2019 9:00 PM GMT
Not very original but I took the 7/1 on last years winner straight after his good run at Down Royal.
Report FOYLESWAR November 3, 2019 9:08 PM GMT
altior and cyrname clash at ascot over 2.4 miles if one gets well beat by the other chances are wont line up in this .
Report FELTFAIR December 16, 2019 11:18 AM GMT
Will continue to back Cyrname until he is beaten. Have had a speculative punt on Bristol De Mai at 50-1 which I thought was way too big if he turns up. May have another dip once the final line up is known.
Report impossible123 December 17, 2019 1:15 PM GMT
Cyrname (15/8) is shading Lostintranslation (2/1) for favouritism; Cyrname the victor over Altior has never done the distance; Lostintranslation look classy when winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock over course specialist Bristol De Mai. He's also the only horse eligible for £1m bonus if winning here and the Gold Cup too.

At Leopardstown on 28th the Savils Chase could see the return of Kemboy (2/1) and Al Boum Photo (9/1, Gold up winner);  Presenting Percy (9/2) and Road To Respect (5/1) are also the possible runners.

Also in Ireland on Boxing Day at Limerick in the Matchbook Novice Chase Samcro (10/11), Faugheen (11/4) and Laurina (7/2) are possibles - a big pointer for the Arkle/JLT/RSA.
Report dunlaying December 17, 2019 3:30 PM GMT
I am not convinced that Cyrname will get the trip . For me it is a race to leave alone .
Report gpz6316 December 17, 2019 8:56 PM GMT
not sure why lostintranslation is running in this . i would go pillar chase and gold cup hes surely the gold cup winner if he only keeps his mojo . your definitely risking his confidence running on a park course on good ground right handed . in my tiny mind connections are making a big mistake . i too dont think cyrname will stay , which has been emphasised by nicholls suggesting cobdens choice is tighter than ruby thinks .  clan des obeaux for me . best of luck
Report FOYLESWAR December 17, 2019 9:10 PM GMT
have had a few quid on footpad and at 50s for the gold cup also just in case . what does cyrname do ? will he press on from the front or be ridden with more restraint  with the trip an unknown .
Report impossible123 December 17, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
Lostintranslation is running solely for that £1m bonus offered for winning Betfair, this and Gold Cup. Otherwise I'd not have thought we'd see him here if he'd lost at Haydock. I'd go with Clan Des Obeaux over Cyrname who beat a a tired Altior on bad ground who was closing at the line; Cyrname might not stay this trip if ground is testing again.
Report Meat Loaf December 19, 2019 10:18 AM GMT
Are we expecting any Irish runners?
Report impossible123 December 19, 2019 11:24 AM GMT
I think Footpad is the only probable as it's Munir and Souede owned and Jacob rides with Walsh having retired.

But why Is Cyrname such a short price fav against Lostintranslation and Clan Des Obeaux (CDO) ? A horse that has never done the distance against a stayer, and last year's winner respectively. But, for his defeat in Ireland CDO would be a lot shorter.
Report impossible123 December 19, 2019 7:01 PM GMT
The ground is soft at the moment with heavy rain forecast for the next 2 days with light showers thro' next week until day of race. I'd think very soft going come the race.

Not good news for connections of Cyrname, I'd imagine.
Report impossible123 December 20, 2019 5:42 PM GMT
I think Clan Des Obeaux to finish in front of Cyrname could be the best of the day; odds against and a near certainty.
Report muse December 22, 2019 12:57 AM GMT
I think the ground will be good to soft; Cyrname will stay, and will win handsomely.
Report unclepuncle December 22, 2019 7:32 AM GMT
impossible123 20 Dec 19 17:42 
I think Clan Des Obeaux to finish in front of Cyrname could be the best of the day; odds against and a near certainty.



Must be a ife savings job then - please post your £1 bet (MuppetCrazy).
Report unclepuncle December 22, 2019 7:32 AM GMT
^life
Report muse December 22, 2019 9:06 AM GMT
I cannot see how CDO's accumulated form looks stronger than Cyrname's.  Yes, he seemed to bolt up in last year's King George, but, lolking back, he didn't beat a field at their best.  Thistlecrack has never gone on after Many Clouds broke his heart; even those encouraged by his recent hurdles run might want to consider how it compares with his previous hurdles form.  He hasn't run to within a stone of his best since that wretched Trials Day three years ago.

Forget the Altior race if you find it hard to assess; his 17 length duffing up of Waiting Patiently in the Ascot chase, and his handicap win before that both point to the same kind of level of form.  He might not get 3 miles, but I can't see any reason why he won't.

Lostintranslation might be the new Messiah - and this might prove it - but for now his level of form just lacks the proof that he has the class to cut it with the absolute best around; I am not for a moment saying he isn't, but I cannot take 15/8.

The most interesting of the remainder, to my eye is Footpad.  Although he seemed not to stay in the Punchestown Stayers hurdle, that was at the end of a season when he didn't seem to see any of his races out.  He wasn't stopping over 2m6f latest, and if they have ironed out his problems, he might be capable of going very close here.
Report sixtwosix December 22, 2019 10:13 AM GMT
Aso  - never looked like a King George horse or good enough
La Bague Au Roi - Beaten by 100/1 shot last time ......
Thlstlecrack - Superb  return against PP.Kauto , Dessie and Edreon Bleu won this at 11 .....he won't.
Footpad- The one unknown. If back to his best he is very good but...... he was supposed to challenge Altior over 2 miles , doubt he will get 3 miles.
Lostintranslation  - Looked Gold Cup horse at Haydock , but looks as likely as Denman to win a KG. Would he run if not in running for the bonus , I doubt it.
Cyrname - This race will tell us how good he was . I have doubts about the Altior he beat at Ascot .
Clan Des Obeaux- They found his Grade 1 last year in this race. The track and tempo is ideal . The latest multiple winner for me.

Cool
Report impossible123 December 22, 2019 3:36 PM GMT
CDO is the reigning champion. He's done it at this level beating Thistlecrack last year despite a question mark of quality of the field.
Cyrname claim to fame is beating a tired Altior (1st time out) over 5f further than the latter's been on atrocious ground. But, ground and trip could be an issue this time; beat an off-colour Waiting Patiently; winner of a handicap prior; a probable pacesetter.
Lostintranslation beat BDM - the conqueror of Thistlecrack - at Haydock, and definitely improving.
Footpad was excellent in The Arkle two seasons ago. But, 8f extra and quality of opposition? I'm not sure.

The price of Cyrname is too short on form. And, with a question mark about the trip on (probable) atrocious ground again, a probable pace-setter and against 2 Gp 1 proven trip competitors, I'd oppose esp if the haven opens prior to race.
Report muse December 23, 2019 10:00 PM GMT
Impossible123, I think you have the consensus on your side about WP being off colour in the Ascot chase.

By way of thought experiment, imagine how you would weigh that form now, had Cyrname not run in the race, and the rest finished where they did. 

To sustain the position that WP was off colour, you would need to think Pooitologue under performed by a similar amount.

In fact you would be saying that they finished roughly in the proximity to each other that you would expect.

There is at least a chance that that was a really serious performance from Cyrname that day.

And if it was, there is no reason to assume that the ultra game and consistent Altior was particularly under par the last day.

We might differ about how Occam's razor slices all this, but I think that's what makes the race such an enticing prospect.

As for Footpad, there is considerably more evidence about his stamina than the Arkle - vide supra.
Report irishone December 23, 2019 11:35 PM GMT
Ive laid my bow lux off on cyrname won't get home .....2\1 is a joke let alone 13\8
Report irishone December 23, 2019 11:44 PM GMT
Footpad dont get the three miles either, ruby told the world that a year or two ago after the nichols canyon beat him
Report harry callaghan December 24, 2019 1:56 AM GMT
i find peoples comments quite interesting about price and the normal junk without substance to there argument

just one thing from me and that is enjoy the ride harry
Report harry callaghan December 24, 2019 1:56 AM GMT
oh and happy christmas all
Report irishone December 24, 2019 10:55 AM GMT
that last two furlongs at ascot provides plenty of substance .....
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 12:59 PM GMT
4 proven stayers and of those aso prob flying too high thistlecrack days off being a 12 yo which leaves lostintrans and clan des obeaux think the course may not play to lit so on that basis clan des ob a smallish bet for me .  have looked closely at cyrnames pedigree and it dont scream  out and out stayer and dont think he gets an easy time up front , if a shock footpad could be the one to deliver it and around 12s as a saver for me .
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 1:01 PM GMT
happy xmas all and good luck.
Report muse December 24, 2019 1:53 PM GMT
It's a very fair point about Cyrname's pedigree Foyles, though the damside seemed a bit shallow to make a very strong case.

There are obviously similarities with Frodon, and I paid the price for convincing myself he wouldn't stay on Trials day at Cheltenham.

Whether that painful experience is skewing my judgement here... well, I am paying again to find out.

I am pretty sanguine about it really, in that I am having a fun bet because it's the King George.  Not really the kind of race I would play in otherwise, but it should be an enjoyable watch.

Have a good Christmas one and all.
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 2:16 PM GMT
same here muse , have watching last years race they seemed to go at it hard in front and that eventually found out any non stayers ,a smaller field this time and cyrname could set the fractions but he will be in unknown territory 3 furlongs from home where the stayers should come into their own 11/2 on here for clan with proven record over trip and course looks stonking to me !
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 2:16 PM GMT
same here muse , have watching last years race they seemed to go at it hard in front and that eventually found out any non stayers ,a smaller field this time and cyrname could set the fractions but he will be in unknown territory 3 furlongs from home where the stayers should come into their own 11/2 on here for clan with proven record over trip and course looks stonking to me !
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 2:16 PM GMT
same here muse , have watching last years race they seemed to go at it hard in front and that eventually found out any non stayers ,a smaller field this time and cyrname could set the fractions but he will be in unknown territory 3 furlongs from home where the stayers should come into their own 11/2 on here for clan with proven record over trip and course looks stonking to me !
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 2:16 PM GMT
same here muse , have watching last years race they seemed to go at it hard in front and that eventually found out any non stayers ,a smaller field this time and cyrname could set the fractions but he will be in unknown territory 3 furlongs from home where the stayers should come into their own 11/2 on here for clan with proven record over trip and course looks stonking to me !
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2019 2:17 PM GMT
footnote in an earlier post i said 4 proven stayers .......aso has never won further than 2.5 miles so 3 proven stayers .
Report nocturnal December 24, 2019 3:52 PM GMT
2018 C D O  5m 59.60  gd/sft

2017 MB  6m 6.6  soft

2016 TC 5.53.50  good

2015 CC  6m 3.5  gd/sft

2014 SC  6m 3.3  gd/sft

2013 SC  6m 9.5  soft

2012 LR  6m 28.7  heavy

2011 KS  6m 5.0  gd/sft

2010(jan) LR  6m 3.04  gd/sft

2009 KS  6m 7.10  gd/sft


Last years renewal has been crabbed a few times,the proximity of an ageing Thistlecrack etc

It,s easy to forget Native River was 13 1/2 lengths back in 3rd.

CDO is the only horse,with soft in the going description,to break the 6 minute barrier,in the last 10 runnings.

He is 100 % 2nd time out last 3 seasons.

Form figures in Dec read   1,2,1

Right handed tracks    5,1,2,1,1,2


Cracking renewal of the boxing day feature,a race with so many angles.

Based on the above,if CDO turns up in the same form as last season,it will take a good one to beat him.

Lets hope for a clean race,may the best horse win.
Report muse December 24, 2019 9:34 PM GMT
Foyles, when they showed the last 20 or so King George's on RUK the other day, I was struck, watching the sequence, by what a huge majority of winners of it were proper stayers. (Which most often means "stayed the Gold Cup trip" - some thought Kicking King wouldn't get the Kempton trip at that point)

And yet, even ignoring frodons 3m2f Cheltenham win as a point of comparison, we are talking about 3m0f round Kempton. Maybe the former would be a bridge too far for both Cyrname and Footpad (& maybe not) but what I have seen of both suggests both might get the trip on Thursday.

Now, given the way CDO travelled into it last year, and the pace Lostin has shown over shorter trips, for Cyrname to win by breaking their hearts with a remorseless fast pace seems far fetched.  Unless he is really exceptional.  And on one reading of the form, he might be.  The guy with the best clue has gone for Cyrname (and yes, I am well aware how often jocks get it wrong). 

Perhaps taking 15/8 about a "might be" is madness.  While drawing more than I stake each year is a point of pride and principle, I neither do it to put food on my table nor allow it to put that at risk.

But I don't half love the anticipation of evenings like this, waiting to see all our crackpot ( and I intend to blacken nobodies name but my own in using that term) theories dissolve into farce, just so I can dust off and do it all again.

I am already on Cyrname at 15/8 and footpad at 14 ish, so I have not looked at the market for a few days.  But with the sensible "value" hat on, I must say Foyles, if you can get 11/2 CDO, that seems, all things considered, pretty big.

Best of luck and a very Merry Christmas to all... I'm off to parboil some spuds.  See you for the postmortem!
Report irishone December 25, 2019 11:13 AM GMT
Footpad still in ?
Report sofiakenny December 25, 2019 4:30 PM GMT
yes..why wouldn't it??
Report duffy December 26, 2019 1:04 AM GMT
I'm going to back Footpad, not because I necessarily thinks he does stay but because he might stay and I want to think I have the winner with 2 to jump and I think he will provide that thrill.Tongue Out

In any case I look forward to supporting him in the Ryanair.

With regards Cyrname, since he's become the "New" Cyrname and putting the staying question aside, he could be the real deal but I'd want to see him produce at another track other than Ascot before I backed him at such cramped odds. As it stands, Ascot "could" be to him what Haydock is to BDM, we just don't know for sure and he's having to answer the question in what looks a good KG at 6/4, not for me.
Report FOYLESWAR December 26, 2019 3:13 PM GMT
lovely stuff !
Report irishone December 26, 2019 3:13 PM GMT
BOOM ,....AS EXPECTED !
Report unclepuncle December 26, 2019 3:14 PM GMT
GET THE **** IN.ExcitedExcitedExcited
Report gpz6316 December 26, 2019 5:17 PM GMT
congrats to the winners . simples , sometimes
Report irishone December 26, 2019 5:32 PM GMT
I do sometimes wonder if some of the more verbose contributors on here actually watch the races !
Report muse December 26, 2019 7:12 PM GMT
Very well done to everyone who backed it.  Fantastic performance.
Report sixtwosix December 26, 2019 7:58 PM GMT
Aso  - never looked like a King George horse or good enough
La Bague Au Roi - Beaten by 100/1 shot last time ......
Thlstlecrack - Superb  return against PP.Kauto , Dessie and Edreon Bleu won this at 11 .....he won't.
Footpad- The one unknown. If back to his best he is very good but...... he was supposed to challenge Altior over 2 miles , doubt he will get 3 miles.
Lostintranslation  - Looked Gold Cup horse at Haydock , but looks as likely as Denman to win a KG. Would he run if not in running for the bonus , I doubt it.
Cyrname - This race will tell us how good he was . I have doubts about the Altior he beat at Ascot .
Clan Des Obeaux- They found his Grade 1 last year in this race. The track and tempo is ideal . The latest multiple winner for me.


Well that was very easy to predict .....for a change.
Lostintranslation is a gold Cup horse not a King George.
Cyrname is overrated
and I still do not know how you get off a King George winner .......would have been nice to see Ms Frost riding it .
Report FOYLESWAR December 26, 2019 8:02 PM GMT
well done all good debate and sensible input .
Report li December 31, 2019 11:51 AM GMT
Great tipping once again, unclepuncle.
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