July Cup (15th July)

Plenty of possible winners so the draw and going could be the deciding factor. Bet on the day unless you fancy laying Caravaggio.

Think CARRAVAGGIO will get beat - this is really competitive race no way a Even shot... main bet for me TASLEET 9/1... he is group 1 class ...

*lose

I have Caravaggio 3lbs clear of the rest at these weights on track form. But if the horse who had the previous fastest time always won there'd be no race betting. After watching Caravaggio's trial I thought he might go backwards from it but he didn't and ran right up to his 2yo best last time. I still see this as a problem going forward as he hasn't improved at all from last year in my view and he was all out last time. I reckon there's now an odds on chance he won't run to form next time and would estimate it at 1/2 that he doesn't run his race. I backed Harry Angel last time against him but he had a tough race and I'll be leaving him here. I also backed Tasleet last time and while I don't think he was given the best of rides I have that race as a bit below par for a Gp1. The winner, The Tin Man, is a horse with a fine turn of foot but so far he hasn't been able to produce it in a race run in a true Gp1 time. Last year's Champion Sprint Stakes wasn't run in a fast time. I wouldn't rule out him improving again but won't be backing him.

I thought Brando's Ayr Gold cup win last year was equal to a Gp2 performance. It wouldn't have taken a lot of improvement this year to see him take a Gp1 but he's been below par so far. He made hard work of winning the Abernant, which on paper he should've won comfortably. Then ran poor last time when bleeding. I think he could be a danger to all at a big price if getting his act together again but his recent form is a big worry. If Limato can return to last year's winning form he looks the most likely to benefit if Caravaggio runs below par. I have his Diamond Jubilee third 12lbs below his mark when winning this race last year so there's a fair bit of improvement needed but it was an encouraging run. I'll probably wait to see how Limato looks on the day but at the moment my intention is to lay Caravaggio.

I wouldn't take too much notice of the times between the Commonwealth Cup and the Golden Jubilee because the former was run into a headwind.

What AOB runs could be important here because there is only one possible front runner and that is Harry Angel. He could have an uncontested easy lead with so many hold up horses. So if AOB hasn't planned for that he could make all. I'm sure that AOB will know this but a steady early pace will also not suit Limato. Last year they went fast early and he bolted up. I think Limato needs the right ground and an end to end gallop.

After what happened at Ascot I'm sure Clive Cox will be wary of his horse over racing and plan accordingly. If Harry Angel blasts off the dip may help him but if he takes them all along with him it will definitely help Limato and Caravaggio.
I'm considering a small bet on Limato because I backed him at Ascot and maybe a longer priced bet on Caravaggio in running. If AOB has something up his sleeve Moore need not sit too close and he may trade at a more sensible price than his SP, in running. If he doesn't and he wins it costs nothing and if he loses at least he was backed at a more sensible price.

I did not realise there was a head wind in the running of the Commonwealth Cup. Also unlike you I'm no aficionado about the layout of racecourses.

AOB has 5 entered and one is Intelligence Cross, the horse that was ridden to try and light-up Harry Angel in the Commonwealth Cup up the rials, and I do not expect any different. I hope Moore will sit Caravaggio close to the pace but infront of Limato and no more than 2l behind Harry Angel if the latter takes the field along; Caravaggio shows he stays further than 6f, and so does Limato.

The Tin Man and Tasleet will no doubt come with a late run 2f or 1f out but Harry Angel must not be allowed a soft lead otherwise he could nick it whilst the other 3 principals were busy watching one another. I'm hoping the best horse will win, and no hard luck story for anyone; backed Limato last year but on Caravaggio this time at much bigger prices, fingers firmly crossed though.

Also Limato went off at 9/2 last year, must've been quite a long time ago that Caravaggio was available at much bigger prices for this race

I think that may be a bit unfair Roadrunner. Limato is a 6f older horse who needs top of the ground.

This is how difficult being his trainer is.

The first Gr1 race of the year is in Meydan so he went but unexpectedly it rained heavily.
The next 6f Gr1 race isn't until the Diamond Jubilee followed by the July Cup followed by the Sprint Cup at Haydock then the Champions Sprint at Ascot in October.
The last of these he is extremely unlikely to get his ground so if he is lucky he only has three races to target in the UK all season. There are no Gr1 races at 6f in France at all and at the Breeders Cup the 6f race is on dirt.

Last season he had to run Limato in the Lockinge to get a race into him before the Diamond Jubilee and to find out if he stayed a mile, even though the ground at Newbury in May is unlikely to be fast but he had to run to see if it would open more doors.
Then, would you believe it, it was too soft in the Diamond Jubilee so he never ran. To get a race into him before Haydock he ran him in the Nunthorpe over 5f which was too short and even then it rained, and guess what, he missed the Haydock Sprint because of soft ground so his season was now over.

All that was available was the Prix Foret over 7f and he won so he took him to the Breeders Cup and ran him in the only race he could which was over a mile, he finished 4th. His hands are completely tied most of the time and even now he may only just get his ground this coming Saturday.

At his ideal trip as a 6f sprinter Limato has run ten times, won six, finished placed in the Diamond Jubilee twice following not ideal preparations and been beaten twice on the wrong ground. Of his other six starts he has run three times over 7f winning a Gr2 and a Gr1 and being 2nd in a Gr1. He has run once over 5f and finished 2nd in a Gr1 and twice over a mile which is too far for him.

That is not a bad record with the available cards Henry has to play I think. With no more rain expected before Saturday you dismiss him at your peril.

you make a good point about the trainer, when reading the form and just looking at a horses profile, all that stuff about, they had to do this and that to get a run and whatever, just isn't apart of form reading for me. maybe that's essential regarding the top
class group races, that kind of thinking. requires too much brain energy for me.

Candy has always been a superb trainer of sprinters for me going back to the likes of Elbio. Limato set to do a Right Boy for me and win the July Cup 2 years running.

Th final decs are in: 10 have been declared; AOB running Caravaggio and Intelligence Cross only, drawn 2 and 3 respectively; the other major principals all stand their ground too.

Harry Angel is drawn 6 with Tasleet 5 and The Tin Man 10. Very possibly Intelligence Cross will race up with Harry Angel leaving a gap for Caravaggio and Limato on the inside (assuming the stalls are positioned accordingly) and Tasleet and The Tin Man on the outside; poor Harry Angel getting shot at from both sides late in the race, I'd think.

this race has to be one of the strongest group 1 sprints, ive seen in the last 5 years to be run, with coolmoore seemingly running a spoiler again, if that one blocks in carravgio, looking forward to see how harry angel gets on in the race, hopefully gets out fast
and grabs the rail, harry angel might have to wait until next year to land a group 1 race. think the older horses will just have the
edge in this race, sprinters get better with age and are usually stronger. the 3 yos are making this a very interesting race.

goodluck just watching race for me

And Caravaggio looks plenty short enough at 11/10.

Caravaggio moves like a horse,with that knee action that suits a flatter track.

No pace in the race, as feared.

Ta roadrunner. Yes, those who were wary of a slow early pace were proved right after all. Surprised they didn't set a faster gallop on Intelligent Cross. Maybe they were more interested in marking Harry Angel rather than setting a faster pace for their favourite. Although personally I don't think Caravaggio was winning today whatever the pace. O'Brien played down the sweating in the paddock but to me Caravaggio didn't look as well in himself overall today as he had at Ascot. Although the pace was slower than usual, for me the pace didn't alter the result, Harry Angel was always travelling like the best horse and was a deserved winner on the day.

It's a constant imponderable - pace or lack of - even in a G1 sprint. John Smiths Cup was the same today - no pace whatsoever.

With this defeat Caravaggio could run another one or two races more before taking up stud duty, I'd imagine.

Well done to backers and connections, but no Sheikh Mo though, I'd why.