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Irish Derby (1st July)

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Replies: 168
By:
A_T
When: 01 Jul 17 16:18
tempting way to lose money maybe Ballydoyle have older horses to aim at that race
By:
Sandown
When: 01 Jul 17 16:21
For me, the  Epsom Derby form (Permian and Benbatl both franked it) is better than the French Derby form and Waldgeist would be a bit flattered to get so close to the winner anyway. I think that he is doesn't have a turn of foot either although he will appreciate the 12f. The ground is no worse than good at the Curragh so Waldgeist wont have the edge that he might have on softer ground.

To my mind WOE is better than the bare figures because of how the race was run and he can project higher than rated. That makes him better than Cracksman imo so as I would be surprised if anything other than the front 3 will be a dnager, I am going with Moore's mount.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jul 17 16:37
I guess if one fancies WoE to uphold the Derby form later today 16/1 is a risk worth taking however, AOB already has Highland Reel (previous winner and 6/4 fav) and Idaho in it. Also, I think the 3yr old colts this year might not be up for the task unless WoE wins by a wide margin to prove me wrong; if so, he could go for the Arc in the Autumn otherwise The Leger is a near certainty, I'd think.

Rhododendron is fav for the Nassau and Seventh Heaven is one of the betting principals in the Yorkshire Oaks so a return is envisaged, with possibly Minding to follow soon after; at least Seventh Heaven and/or Minding could go for the Arc they being fillies along with Highland Reel and Order Of St George.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 16:40
If he wins today AT where will he run next? This will only be his 3rd run, he clearly needs 12f, what is there before the Arc? After all the current KG favourite, who won this last year, only beat the 5th horse home in last year's Derby. Not the strongest of form I suggest. And there are plenty of 10f races for him to run in.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 16:46
*who won it last year
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:23
What did I effing tell you. What the F was Smullen doing?
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:24
Moral winner again ffs.
By:
A_T
When: 01 Jul 17 17:27
Cracksman's not really very keen on racing
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:28
You can ignore nothing with this bunch of crooks. All those front runners and they never front ran.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 17:29
As suspected, WOE just happened to runner better than usual last time, bastard Cry
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 17:29
*run
By:
A_T
When: 01 Jul 17 17:30
they've no idea which is their best colt over 12f - AOB said on Derby day they don't work them together
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:34
I think you will find Capri was 16s at Epsom while WoE was 40s. It's just that they went too fast at Epsom. Capri was alongside Cracksman coming into the straight but didn't get home. Pace today, or lack of it, suited him admirably. Why on this earth Smullen sat where he did off no pace is something we will never know.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:36

Jul 1, 2017 -- 2:30PM, brigust1 wrote:


Of course, while many will think it will be a strong pace I wouldn't put it past AOB to do something different. If The Anvil and Taj Mahal set a steady pace it wouldn't suit WoE or Waldgeist who I believe will be sat at the back but would suit Capri and Cracksman.


You can't say I didn't predict it!

By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 17:40
Don't think anyone could say it was a slow pace if they watch it again.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:42
Not exactly a slow pace but not a fast on either. They let the worst horse in the race dictate it and go clear I think that says everything.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 17:48
Did you see how wide Smullen came? Six horses wide that shows how steady they went ffs.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 17:51
The race was well run to my eyes. This is mediocre form again for a Gp1 with little between these moderate 3yo colts. You'd probably get a different result each time they race against one other.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 17:51
*one another
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 18:00
I think the fact that The Anvil still led at the 2 furlong marker shows how steady the went. In the Epsom Derby he was 12th at the 2 furlong marker.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 18:07
That's because The Anvil went faster (too fast) earlier at Epsom. The rest let the two front runners go clear in the Derby and went at a more sensible pace. He set a decent pace again today but one that he was able to sustain for longer.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jul 17 18:10
I agree it was not a searching pace, but the winner was sat just 3 lengths behind the pace setter. On the other hand WoE, Cracksman and Waldgeist - the worst was the last mentioned - was too far back to Capri and were a near spent force when upsides the winner - the damage had already been done, I believe.

No worries, the next gladiatorial venue will be The Leger in Sept and a different result will emerge, I firmly believe. The question is, will Capri and Cracksman be there? Personally, I'd doubt neither,...Capri was coming to the end of his tether, and Cracksman is no Leger horse, in my opinion.

The 3 yr old colts are a much of a muchness this year.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 01 Jul 17 18:17
unlucky brigust1, what might have been, if frankie was riding cracksman today, I believe he would of been better positioned to attack
and could of won that race.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 18:38
Thanks RR I don't feel unlucky, I never lost anything, I just feel cheated by this bunch of crooks. They knew what they had to do to beat their two rivals and they did it. One day, mark my words, these crooks will be called to question by the media (if they grow some b a lls). As punters we should be up in arms about their tactics before and during the races.
I thought PM would lead entering the home straight as he did last year but he was quickening at the same time as everything else in the race was quickening the writing was on the wall then.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 17 18:48
I rate this form even worse than Epsom, with Cracksman running well again but slightly below his Derby form.
By:
Blackrock
When: 01 Jul 17 18:58
I backed Wings but cut my bet down considerably once the ground
went soft side of good, or even dead in places. To my mind, Wings wants it fast. He has an electric turn of foot and is not just a stayer imo.

If the horse gets his ground later in the year i wouldnt desert him. Capri has form with a bit of cut, so not completely a surprise he won.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Jul 17 19:00
Can't blame Coolmore for anything Brig - race seemed perfectly well run and very clean - no hard luck stories at all.

The big 3 were all too concerned with each other to worry about those at the front, and when it came to it none of them could quite quicken up enough to catch Capri who had the rail to help him.

Average bunch of middle distance three year olds this year - just hope they are much better at 10f next week at Sandown.Excited
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 19:41
I disagree Uncle. COMPLETELY.
It is only because Coolmore has this strength in depth they are able to do this. Run their horses not to suit each horse but to suit the team. That is crooked imo. And I am sure this is not the last heard about it. They used team tactics in the 2000 Guineas, team tactics in the Derby, team tactics for Carravagio and now today. When Pitman ran a spoiler she is still trying to live it down. Legally it may be right but it is not in the spirit of horse racing.
Cracksman beat Capri by nearly 3 lengths in the Derby and they were level 3 out. How far was he behind Capri as they turned into the home straight this time? More than 3 lengths if I remember correctly.
If that is they way a race works out when the horses are trained by individual trainers then that is the way the cookie crumbles but everyone knows they are riding against a team.

As Richard Hughes said in the Post today: Ryan Moore will have everything in his favour today because he will what the other four stablemates are doing. It's hard enough working out races with the imformation we have without them being run to suit the team.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 19:43
*he will know what the other stablemates are doing.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Jul 17 20:13
Unless you can explain it to me I don't see how there was anything about the way the race was run that was unfairly stopping Cracksman from winning today? It was purely down to his his ability and the ride his jockey gave him - that has nothing to do with Coolmore imo.

If he were the best horse he should have won - it wasn't as though he was boxed in or unfairly harrassed by the Coolmore posse.

If he was the best horse (and it would seem there is a cigarette paper between any number of middle distance three years old this year) and didn't win then that is surely the fault of the jockey and/or trainer for their tactics, and I'm sure Frankie may have done things differently.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jul 17 20:14
To say AOB is a very good trainer is an understatement however, I'm a bit perplexed by his recent comments about Capri after the Derrinstown and the Epsom Derby eg he did not seem to see out the trip at Derrinstown (10f) and he did not last home over 12f at Epsom; today after the Irish Derby he was saying the same about WoE eg he sprinted in the last 2f at Epsom after a scorching pace; he was a 10f horse, but the opposite about Capri eg he stayed 12f well, etc, etc.

I think Gosden would not be happy with the ride given by Smullen to Cracksman, probably Fabre too about Boudot to Waldgeist. And Moore rode WoE as if he was a superstar,...clearly he is not. I think Capri "stole" the race.

Little interest for Capri for The Leger here (7/1) despite he is as short as 3/1 with Laddies; WoE was matched at 49/1, will he go to The Leger now? Capri ran in both Derby despite AOB alluding to his possible lack of stamina for 12f.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Jul 17 21:35
The only way Capri could win was if there was a slow pace. He said himself before the Derby he thought 10f was his best distance and he showed that in the Derby. Had Douglas McArthur or Taj Mahal, both confirmed front runners, run their races that wouldn't have happened. Their instructions, from AOB etc, were to sit in off a steady pace. Similarly Moore who rode WoE, who usually sits last in his races, knew this so sat handy unlike anything he had done before.
The reason these jockeys rode this way was because they were instructed to. They were instructed to sit behind Capri whose jockey was instructed to sit in 2nd place behind a leader who was instructed to set a less than strong pace. AOB gives the orders and he knew with these orders he may have been compromising the chances of DM, TM and WoE but he was giving the Galieo colt, Capri, the best possible chance to win. He also knew that Waldgeist, with the ground drying, would want a strong pace and would be dropped in so the plan worked with him and he also knew it was unlikely Smullen would force the pace after what happened at Epsom but he had Douglas McArthur ready to make life difficult for him if he did. The likelihood was that Smullen would challenged at the home straight not knowing this would be the time the race was quickening and at its hottest. It would be a time when all of AOB's horses would be quickening as per his instuctions. Had Smullen taken the bull by the horns pressure from Douglas McArthur and Tah Mahal would not only have have made his life very difficult indeed but it would allow WoE to pick up the pieces.

It is hard enough working out how a race is going to be run without one trainer having available to him various options. I did say this was possible before the race, this is not after timing.

I wonder how long owners, trainers and jockeys, let alone punters, will be happy to sit back and see their success snatched from them in this way. Not long is my guess.

The run of Intelligence Cross at Royal Ascot, where for the first time in his 10 runs it reads, 'with leader', as a spoiler to Harry Angel was abvious and it was lucky he didn't run a spoiler against Big Orange they would have strung him up. But the season is not ver yet.
By:
Try My Best
When: 02 Jul 17 00:21
Talking out of your arse again
By:
brigust1
When: 02 Jul 17 07:07
TMB I refer you to my 5.36pm post. If you are happy to be cheated by this bunch of crooks then that's OK, isn't it? This is the sport of my choice and if you believe they ran every horse in the race on their respective merits and to achieve their best possible placing then I'm happy for you. I know when I am being conned and I don't have to like it, even if you do.

In the Epsom Derby every other trainer let you know what their horses were doing and who was riding at the beginning of the week, not this bunch they left it until the very last minute. They treat punters like rubbish. It may be legal but in my opinion it is not moral.
I have no complaints about how the Derby was run, unlike the 2000 Guineas. You can run a number of horses in a race morally.
By:
brigust1
When: 02 Jul 17 10:09
Is this race in Ireland today the first opportunity to see how good, or not, the 3 year old division is?
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 02 Jul 17 10:49
A voice in the wilderness.Move on Brig.
By:
brigust1
When: 02 Jul 17 11:10
I've already moved on Felt, till the next time. I'm sure I won't have long to wait. Laugh
By:
brigust1
When: 02 Jul 17 11:24
They only have 13 in the Eclipse. Wonder when we will know who is running and who rides them? Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jul 17 11:52
Close up, soon settled off strong pace in 6th, ridden over 2f out and no impression under pressure, weakened

RP race comments for Grandee yesterday.

A strong pace was always guaranteed and it was The Anvil who set the early gallop for the Coolmore team under Ana O'Brien.

the trainer’s daughter, setting a solid pace on The Anvil

Reports from the Sporting Life and Guardian

the pace was on up front and it was strong and he was in the eye of the storm all the time

AOB's post race comments.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jul 17 11:57
Regards Eclipse, if Cliffs of Moher is a runner Moore will be on him 100%, all things being equal.
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