Most of Wings Of Eagles runs were on sharp left handed courses.
Most of Waldgeist's runs on right handed easy turning courses.
Two of Cracksman's three runs were at Epsom, a sharp left handed course.

Morning Uncle. Looks like perfect ground as you say. As far as Attraction is concerned didn't she just have splayed front legs with a daisy cutter action? Cracksman has an exaggerated high knee action.  Anyway, you are right, she was good and quick. You couldn't accuse Cracksman of being quick.

Cracksman's debut last year was on going described as good to soft, although the times say it was good ground and probably on the fast side of that. Judging by the way Gosden withdrew Cracksman at York and Golden Horn in the King George he seems a man who relies more on the description than any other evidence so it seems he was perfectly happy to debut Cracksman on going supposedly good to soft so I wouldn't expect this ground to be a problem.

With no obvious adverse conditions, this is a situation of being completely right or completely wrong and getting 100/30 for the privilege.

Still no jockey confirmation on any AOB's horses, I believe. Not really a vote of confidence for WoE - the ground a concern for him perhaps. If so, no surprise if Waldgeist goes off fav.

Watching the PDJC again you could say Waldgeist was a bit unlucky in not getting a clear run sooner but personally I don't think he would've won anyway. I did like the way he travelled though and wouldn't consider he had a hard race there. Whereas I did think Cracksman had quite a tough race. I have Waldgeist's latest run a career best, 3lbs higher than his Criterium De Saint-Cloud win. Of the three main contenders he's the one I think is most likely to run his race.

I think the market is pretty much spot on. WOE has marginally the best form but whether he can repeat it is open to question. I have Waldgeist and Cracksman on the same mark. Cracksman being so lightly raced looks to have the potential to improve the most but it's only potential. I don't believe he had any excuses at Epsom. If he improves it will be through experience and/or physical development. He did look to have quite a hard race though, it was a much more strongly run race than he'd encountered before and he ran to a new peak, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he couldn't repeat that here. I would be surprised if Waldgeist didn't run to form so I'd have him shorter than Cracksman for that reason.

So he has either obviously improved by at least 10 lengths

There's no doubt he improved 10 lengths on the day. I don't think that necessarily means he's going to be that good on another day. Maybe he will, maybe he won't.

One thing is for sure, whatever wins is going to need to improve considerably to beat older horses later even on generous wfa terms.

I have Capri and Douglas Macarthur running to form, Best Solution just a few pounds below his best, the others mentioned certainly ran below form to different degrees.

Brigust, I have this as the worst winning Derby performance since Sir Percy's but that had the excuse of being slowly run. Some people crabbed Pour Moi's race but I have this as worse. I've seen lots of placed horses in the Derby that improved as much as WOE has or even more. I reckon this year's winning form is worse than many placed efforts I've seen.

Apart from CoM Capri had the best form from last season, and his starting odds-on in France was because he finished behind Churchill. But this season he'd not improved; 1st his jockeys tried holding him up and subsequently racing up with the pace yet the result was the same - he just could not win; Capri will most likely get his ground but I think his lack of stamina will catch him out at the business end (again).

On the other hand WoE had improved with every race; his 2nd behind Venice Beach at Chester despite not handling the bends was a commendable effort; he proved beyond any doubt that was no fluke in the Epsom Derby - he was the unluckiest horse yet he won. Because he started at 40/1 (50->100 here) his success had yet to be appreciated.

With the likes of Douglas Macarthur, Taj Mahal and The Anvil a decent pace will be assured, I believe.

Cracksman looks the standout to me.

Was a very strange Derby I thought. Unconsidered Wings of Eagles (seemingly 5th of string of 6 for AoB) may just have handled the Epsom track better than others - and Cracksman was having just his 3rd run and was rolling down the camber to his left for last few furlongs. He looks like one that stays/lengthens relentlessly rather than an electric burst-of-speed type, and that will certainly suit the Curragh rather better.

Also, there has been rain - and more expected - which seems to be putting people off Cracksman.  But why?!? His mum was a heavy ground specialist - and dad (Franky or something like that) won on deep ground, and was generally pretty good :-)

Its AoB's home turf and I'm not going "all in", but (for me) I'm having a decent tilt at this one.

Good luck all!

No bet for me, as I've said the market looks about right.

http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

Weather Reports:  week 22/06/2017 to 28/06/2017

Station______________________Temp_____Rain (mm)_ %____Sun (hrs)__ %
Casement____________________14.2_____26.0__(189%)______27.9__(77%)
Dublin Airport________________14.0_____28.1__(193%)______21.7__(55%)

Casement Air Base is about 35 kms east of The Curragh
% = percent of normal

If Smullen gives him the same ride he gave Harzand last year that should be good enough.

the english derby for me was a very moderate affair and in all honesty was a decent group 2 and was on paper before the race and after the race did nothing to change my mind

imo the big problem with the race was we dealt with a strong pace with mediocre horses running at the pace and these mediocre horses were unable to sustain this pace, this caused the melt down in the last furlong with the deep closer benefiting from this... because of the class of horse running, they were enable to sustain this pace...in all fairness to cracksman he was at least up on this pace and maybe you could argue the lack of a prep run just did for him and in all fairness to him i was never convinced he liked the track...he has his chance here and is a tempting bet at the price i'd have him a tad shorter, he is still yet to convince me he is a mile and a half horse however but today will tell me more, one thing i don't buy is ground and think he will love a bit of cut in the ground

wings of eagles got the tender treatment at chester and it payed dividends in the race, he got a meltdown pace in which to run at and picked the pieces up really just outstaying his rivals...imo if he hadn't been blocked in his run he would of been a comfortable winner but i am with others that are not convinced he will back it up here, however o'brien is running the battalion so expect another slog with these horses running today on different ground to the fast ground derby, if you've missed the wedding do you wish to go to the funeral at 5/2...imo he is the likeliest winner but just can't pull the trigger at the price

i have struggled with waldgeist and just never been convinced he is that good but he will love the step up in trip and maybe in a weak year he could win a derby of this nature, some have argued with me that he is a good thing here but i think he is a rancid price...he has his chance but isn't for me

i see the money for capri but he hasn't convinced me he has improved, we will see with him

i can't wager it's horrible but imo the derby winner maybe to good for them

What a ride this horse has given me since last October. No complaints, it has been great fun and is still going.

How this race is run will obviously be important as will the AOB plans. I think Taj Mahal and The Anvil will make it a good pace from the start for Douglas McArthur to take over and keep the strong pace going for WoE to attack off. My problem is where and when Cracksman will challenge. He doesn't look quick so a sustained challenge when they enter the home staight should be enough for the late closers not to catch him.  If he challenges DM too far out and has a protracted duel then he could set it up for the closers as he weakens.
I've backed Cracksman a few times this week when his price was good and will lay off at pretty short because I think the real dangers are late closers so if he does as I wish without having too hard a fight to get past DM that should easily be good enough. But, as I said, if he struggles to see of DM he could be open to one of the late closers while still trading short in running. Good luck all.

I think the sole purpose of AOB running five is to ensure the race is run at a competitive pace to suit WoE; a slow pace will probably play into the hands of Douglas Macarthur and Capri but unlikely the latter will appreciate the trip despite the ground will be to his liking.

If the three main protagonist are fighting out the finish my money would be on either WoE or Waldgeist as I believe the Epsom form will be upheld.

If you think WoE will uphold the Epsom form Imp do you not think the 16s available for the KG is tempting?