Horse Antepost
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there's no sensible market for the SJPS at this stage of the season and it's not worth discussing the race
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In the past this market had always been up-and-running prior to the running of the 2000G eg Gleneagles, Galileo Gold, Air Force Blue, The Gurkha, etc; there are presently five main bookies offering prices on virtually every protagonist in the 2000G market including Caravaggio.
Churchill was put in at 13/8 by most at the beginning but has been pushed out to 7/2 now; if he wins the 2000G (present fav at 13/8) 7/2 is value as his price for this race will shorten significantly as he is a near certainty to take part unless of course if Churchill takes in the Epsom Derby, and AOB relies on Caravaggio for this, assuming Caravaggio runs well or wins the French 2000G. |
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if he wins the 2000G (present fav at 13/8) 7/2 is value as his price for this race will shorten significantly
And if he doesn't win it won't be value. |
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You talk such an immense amount of sh1t Impossible it's not even worth picking your points about. So amateurish all the time. Just guesses and stating the obvious all the time. See Pavilon stakes thread.
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The fact only 5 bookies from 20 have the SJP market open tells you the market is hardly ''up and running''. Before the Guineas has been run there is very,very little money being bet on it so to say it is always up and running is just b0llocks. BF will have a market but fu ck all by way of comparison is bet on it at this stage.
Given Chruchill is by Galileo he is far from certain to run in the race either if he wins the Guineas. Yet another full on assumption. |
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impossible123 30 Apr 17 20:44 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 27,397 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Churchill is about 7/4 for the 2000G and was the same for this when the market 1st opened. But now he is 7/2, why? The protagonists are virtually the same, and this is six weeks post 2000 Guineas. Seriously? You actually need telling? Having you been watching any racing the last few weeks or just playing with sticklebricks? |
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Harsh but fair.
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Churchill is 6/4 with one bookie - most are 5/4 - but Paddies only going even money.
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Watch out for Caravaggio This is an unbelievable horse, who in the absence of a Ballydoyle Derby contender (Prix Greffulhe hotpot Waldgeist just overturned, and nothing coming forward from Derrinstown - ok, they have a few more that might trial well) might well see Churchill step up - I'll await a glimmer of news, but this a really, really good horse who didn't get to show it at the end of last season.
As for Churchill - obv the Storm Cat influence isn't ideal, but he's so good relative to the opposition at this stage - as the master of understatement Ryan Moore said it best "He'd be the best ride in the race, I'm sure of that" |
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Impossible - means well - harsh but fair? not really - he did set up the thread so a bit unfair to berate him in it,
Happy Punting, Gents |
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Caravaggio is no longer in the betting market for the French 2000G this weekend - he must have been withdrawn. Orderofthegarter has been installed the new 7/2 fav; not surprised after the victory of Churchill, and AOB having no sprinting star at present.
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ffs, What Moore actually said was 'I doubt I'll get a better ride in the race' which is not quite the same thing!
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Could Order of the Garter step up to the Derby trip after the French 2000G? I can't help but think AOB needs one of Sir John Lavery, Venice Beach, Exemplar & co to come out of the Chester Vase, Dante or Lingfield trial because Capri, Douglas MacArthur & Yucatan didn't personally inspire me as Derby winners. Churchill can then stay at a mile for the Irish 2000G & then St James Palace.
I have assumed (dangerously) since the Winter that Churchill follows a similar path as Gleneagles did (or should have) English Guineas, Irish Guineas, St James Palace, Sussex Stakes finishing up with the QE2. Apologies if this is this the wrong thread- Couldnt decide whether to post in this or the Derby one! |
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Honestly, I'm not interfering as I'm not betting on the race and certainly not Antepost but I just lifted the forfeits from France Gallop, the official Horse racing authority.
1 MANKIB GB M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg 455 HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM F. HEAD (S) 35.350 2 brametot ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 515 G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND/AL SHAQAB JC. ROUGET (S) 126.400 3 LE BRIVIDO M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** PRCE FAISAL BIN KHALED A. FABRE (S) 29.950 4 orderofthegarter ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 44.151 5 taj mahal ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 39.352 6 LESHLAA USA M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 6.245 7 salsabeel ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** GODOLPHIN C. APPLEBY 18.284 8 INNS OF COURT IRE M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** GODOLPHIN SNC A. FABRE (S) 26.500 9 whitecliffsofdover usa m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 89.353 10 THE GRAPE ESCAPE IRE M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** JOHN MANLEY R. HANNON 8.009 11 caravaggio usa m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 302.418 12 peace envoy m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 162.133 13 south seas ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** QATAR RACING LIMITED AM. BALDING 113.625 14 national defense (gb) m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 535 SUN BLOODSTOCK SARL MME C. HEAD-MAAREK 240.490 15 rivet ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** THE STARSHIP PARTNERSHIP WJ. HAGGAS 301.865 16 african ride (gb) m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 470 WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. LAFFON-PARIAS 58.750 17 spotify m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 495 WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. FERLAND (S) 33.000 |
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Just to be aware - Fas is not in the forfeits - somebody w interest in this race should probably notify BF,
Check it out here also: http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/51137/aidan-obrien-keeps-caravaggio-in-hunt-for-french-2000-guineas |
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I hope Caravaggio runs in the French 2000G this sunday despite not in the betting market since yesterday, but was 7/2 fav until then - backed him too. However, it's extremely unlikely he will take on Churchill in the future for commercial reasons; if the former wins in France Churchill would be more likely to take his chance in the Epsom Derby (possibly Irish too) given his racing style and temperament.
Interestingly in the interview with Lydia Hislop immediately after Churchill's victory in the 2000G AOB was upbeat and alluded to Churchill's participation in the Epsom Derby when asked as the horse's temperament and racing style meant he could be made to run in any distance. However, having had more time to reflect AOB was more guarded and said the "boys" would decide. I think Caravaggio will/or be scratched on sunday unless all is not well with Orderofthegarter and/or his other probable runners; if so, he'd most likely to be kept to sprint races eg Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup. |
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Atm I think Caravaggio will run in France, OOTG run in the Irish 2000, Churchill will run in the Derby - it's heavily obviously odds against, but I like the odds. I also think Caravaggio will go on to St James etc...
The value of him winning a G1 over 1m is huge to his Sire potential, and he just strikes me intuitively as being something special. He has a ridiculous amount of natural speed and should stay 1m. Yes, there are a few more bullets for AO'B to fire in the next Derby Trials, but none strike me as being good enough, Ryan Moore + Tabor gave me confidence they were not opposed to taking Churchill up to the Derby trip. A lot more will be revealed after Sunday, and the trials, but I just think Caravaggio is going to beast the 1m division. Churchill will then go for the Derby and 1m2 races. As you said in another thread it's about opinions - I'm happy to take the chance it all goes wrong, but for a small stake I think it's a good plan. |
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I hope Caravaggio runs on sunday, but the market says no. I've backed Churchill for the Epsom Derby and the SJPS prior to his 2000G victory solely for value.
As this game is mainly about opinions, extracting and maximising value there is little alternative, I suppose. |
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Caravaggio IS in the race - BF have it wrong. Whether he actually runs is another question - I think he will, there is plenty of reasoning for it and many comments from AO'B
1) He said when Caravaggio was taken out of Newmarket that he wouldn't race Churchill but might look at Deauville or The Curragh 2) He said after the winners at the wkend that a decision on Caravagio racing in Deauville would be taken on Monday / Tuesday He is in the race still, with likely dead wood Taj Mahal (needs further), Peace Envoy (non-stayer), the smart Whitecliffsofdover and Orderofthegarter Easily though either one of the latter two can be taken out for the Irish 2000, Atm the race is on Sunday, they have the fav (Caravaggio) and imo they'll run him and probably one more definite 1miler (as you have to account for the fact he hasn't been past 6f even is he's likely to stay 1m) As for the Commonwealth Cup - IMO, they have other horses: Smart ones too in Brave Anna, Peace Envoy and Intelligence Cross, all who want 6f at a max. What they don't have, amazingly, is a smart Derby horse as whatever questions there are about Churchill there are even more about Cliffs of Moher who is a doubtful stayer and while he looked impressive the reliability of that form is low, but we'll see about him soon enough. (should go in the Dee Stakes) |
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Impossible - I don't understand why it hasn't been fixed on BF, and the only two Fixed Odds firms have different horses from each other - I just see him on the official race list, and it's in all today's news, so I'll go with that.
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There is more stamina in Cliffs of Moher's pedigree than Churchill's. The dams in Churchill's pedigree were all sprinters whereas the dams in COM's pedigree stayed at least 10 furlongs. The sires are also a greater influence for stamina, so purely on breeding alone and ignoring their ability and racing style, COM would have more chance of developing into a 12 furlong horse.
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Anyone interested in The Dosage ie the mathematical figure to quantify a horse's ability to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run - the lower the better for longer distances; Cliff Of Moher (0.6); Churchill (0.76); Cracksman (1.00); Eminent (0.74); Rekindling (0.8); Yucatan (0.81) and Sir John Lavery (0.78).
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I123 - when has Aidan O'Brien not been super positive and optimistic about his horses - Galileo and the July Cup for example.
Everyone connected with Coolmore has to say the right thing so they can be used as quotes in breeding catalogue. Listen he's a lovely horse. Don't get me wrong they are an amazing operation on and off the track and put Godolphin and the Maktoums to shame. Only Juddmonte seems able to produce high class horses on such a regular basis and they are gradually scaling down, and increasingly concentrating on the USA dirt side, as Prince Khalid gets older. |
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^ This in relation to this bit:
impossible123 09 May 17 16:43 Interestingly in the interview with Lydia Hislop immediately after Churchill's victory in the 2000G AOB was upbeat and alluded to Churchill's participation in the Epsom Derby when asked as the horse's temperament and racing style meant he could be made to run in any distance. |
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The dam had three runs as a two year old, she was beaten 3/4 of a length over 7 furlongs before winning over 5 furlongs at Dundalk on her third start. She then had one run as a three year old after an absence of a year before being retired.
She was bred to stay 10 furlongs, the second and third dams stayed at least that far. COM should stay 12 furlongs when racing in the right class, whether he is good enough to win a Derby is another matter entirely and only time will tell. Churchill is obviously the better horse at this stage but in my view there are far more doubts about his ability to stay 12 furlongs at Epsom given their respective pedigrees. |
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at least you have an above-par 2000 winner
That still remains to be proved. |
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That is clearly nonsense as she stayed 7 furlongs as a two year old. I tend to ignore what AOB says and form my own opinion about his horses, and that approach has served me well for many years.
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even Lancaster Bomber was deemed good enough to have a go at the KY Derby
The fact that Coolmore were willing to have a crack at the KY Derby with one of their back up runners is neither here or there. Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trials They all won their trials in the manner of horses that needed to step up on that to win an average Guineas, even most of their backers were agreed on this. In the event none of them did. I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off. They're your opinions, which might turn out to be right, but at the moment they're just conjecture. We hear enough hype from the Coolmore machine and the racing media but as punters we can keep it real. At this stage Churchill hasn't one piece of form to say he's a better than par Guineas winner. Maybe he'll go on to prove he is an outstanding miler and any punter is entitled to predict he will and back him accordingly, but don't expect everyone to swallow it until it happens. |
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I have just watched the race again and she clearly stays 7 furlongs and the overall time was not bad. To suggest she barely stays 5 furlongs is just complete nonsense.
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The Guineas wasn't slowly run, the final time was decent, but it wasn't run at the optimum pace so I think the finishing positions were a bit more compressed than they would've been if they'd gone quicker earlier. I doubt Lancaster Bomber would've finished anywhere near as close in a faster run race. Because of that it's difficult to know if Churchill's true superiority was compromised or not. Arguments were put forward that Al Wukair and Barney Roy were unlucky, which is possible, but for me Churchill was a worthy winner, despite being against him on value grounds. That said, I still don't rate the form very highly, but he's the best 3yo miler around at the moment and that's all that mattered on the day. Looking ahead, as I said before he may prove to be special, but if he starts getting priced like a champion already I'll look to oppose him where possible until he actually proves it.
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