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St James's Palace Stakes 2017
St James's Palace Stakes 2017
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I have my impression, and I also have about Caravaggio
I had Caravaggio the best 2yo for a few years and whatever he does in future I'm confident about my opinion of him last year. However, the way Coolmore were dithering about a 7f trial, then quick to avoid the Guineas with him, then dither some more about the French Guineas as an option has curbed my enthusiasm about him in the near future. |
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I believe Churchill will remain unbeaten post this race should he bypass the Epsom Derby. I also think he is worth a couple more lengths than he showed at Newmarket with that race under his belt, and a stronger pace.
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Churchill is evens but as short as 4/6 for this race now; same opposition, same result, I'd say. He is so cool and just does enough to win (effortlessly) like he did today in the Irish 2000G. What a horse,...just cannot wait when he is upped in distance to 10f.
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Do you think he'll be upped to 10 i123? My gut inclination was that he'd be kept to a mile to try and give Coolmore a unbeaten (at a mile) son of Galileo. SJP > Sussex > QE2 was what since being ruled out for the Derby was my personal opinion on how he would be campaigned
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I had my reservation that he'd be stepped-up in distance earlier however, with Minding injured - flag carrier at 10f - and AOB's allusion he'd could be immediately post Irish 2000G victory I'd be inclined to think that might be the case, but it will not an easy decision for connections esp with so many prestigious mile races over the next few months; Coolmore also have Highland Reel, Deauville and others to rely on for 10f/12f.
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we won't see Churchill in the Eclipse it's a really tough race for 3yos - York maybe...
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I think Churchill will be stepped-up in distance to 10f however, the Eclipse on 8th July might be too soon for him; the Juddmonte at the end of July, and the Irish Champion Stakes in September are most likely races, if so.
Minding, even if back on schedule at the end of August, the Irish Champion Stakes would be asking too much of her as a come back race, I'd think. |
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Almanzor could be aimed at the Juddmonte International if coming off the Sky Bet York Stakes satisfactorily three weeks earlier; a mouth watering clash with Churchill should AB decide the Juddmonte is the race to step-up-in-distance with Churchill.
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Any views on the number of runners in the St James Palace stakes? I could see it being a small field. We haven't had a larger than 7 runner field in any of the last 3 years and before that only 9 turned up. Gleneagles only faced four rivals.
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It is looking increasingly likely a small field with only Churchill, Barney Roy and Thunder Snow the most definitive runners; Dream Castle, Lancaster Bomber (both much shorter in the Jersey Stakes), Rivet, Orderofthegarter, War Decree and Benbatl (all ran just 2 weeks ago) are unlikely, in my opinion.
I'd expect AOB and Godolphin to field a pacemaker for Churchill and Barney Roy respectively; Peace Envoy and Boynton are possible too. In total about 7 or 8 runners, I think. |
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surely the Sussex the Churchill don't see why you would up him
looks the perfect miler |
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I understand the connections of Barney Roy are hopeful about a reversal of the 2000G result with Churchill here...but I just cannot see that happening, all being equal.
Churchill will reaffirm superiority over Barney Roy, and then Ribchester in the Sussex, I reckon. |
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A_T 28 May 17 16:38
we won't see Churchill in the Eclipse it's a really tough race for 3yos - York maybe... 16 x 3yr olds have won the race in the last 40 years. 40% strike rate  |
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I've said for a while that I think Churchill isn't the exceptional horse he's been said to be, and I still think that until I see something more from him. That said, he looks by far the most likely winner here. After the Guineas there was talk of Barney Roy being unsuited to the pace but in my view the horse who was most compromised by the early pace was Churchill and if still in top form I'd expect him to increase his winning margin over BR today rather than BR narrow the gap.
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No doubt that Churchill was below par there, he also looked a bit too warm in the paddock but not sure it's a run I'd be keen to forgive for the future. It wasn't a particularly high level of form he showed at Newmarket or the Curragh. The Guineas wasn't run quick and while the Irish version was run faster for the conditions it was still quite moderate for the level. The ground was on the soft side at the Curragh but it wasn't a bog so I see no obvious reason why those races should've taken the edge off him. Maybe he can bounce back next time but I'd be keen to take him on. As for the level of this year's SJP form, it looks below average to me, both on form and the clock for the conditions.
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I suspect Churchill has peaked now and won't be winning races like the Sussex, Marois, Moulin, etc. A Dawn Approach type - top 2yo who was still good enough to win the Guineas but then overtaken by more progressive peers.
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It is clear Churchill never ran to form but I wonder if the race was too quick for him. There was a lot of thought about him running in the Derby so I think they will put him up in trip now. On yesterday's very fast ground and on a turning track plus his position throughout all acted against him. Will the Eclipse or something similar be his next target? The 10f races look very thin on the ground and he has never looked a fast horse and ran in the Chesham last season which, I believe, is for strongly bred horses. They apparently haven't found anything wrong with him so I've had a little bit of the 10's.
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Churchill couldn't quicken after the home turn but after getting outpaced between the 2f and 1f pole he ran on with Ryan Moore virtually sitting upright in the saddle and was almost catching the placed horses at the line.
No doubt he can get 10f but they appear to have earmarked the Eclipse for Cliffs Of Moher and he needs the Group 1 on his CV more than Churchill does. |
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You may be right Uncle but stranger things have happened and at 10s I thought it was worth a dig.
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AOB said Churchill did not eat up (fully) yesterday when interviewed on ITV after the 1st race at Ascot today. He added Churchill's next most likely engagement would be the Sussex Stake and a decision about his participation will be made in the next 10 days to two weeks.
One bad race in hot condition and firm ground after winning his last six consecutive races including two 2000 Guineases does not devalue his form especially with Lancaster Bomber coming in 1 length 2nd yesterday - Churchill has beaten this horse many time much further than that. I do not think Churchill will be stepped-up in distance for the Eclipse because Coolmore has Cliffs Of Moher for that plus several others eg Deauville, Highland Reel, Idaho, etc. |
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You could be right Imp but I never live on the freely given words of AOB. The way he ran yesterday I think the Sussex may be a challenge and he has already said the thinks he will stay at least 10f. The Eclipse is a bit soon if he didn't eat up but stranger things have happened.
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Well they will definitely run a three year old or two in the Eclipse, and if COM isn't pleasing them then Churchill is the net most likely.
They won't waste a 10f Group 1 on the likes if Deauville, Idaho etc, |
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Assuming all is well with Churchill 5/1 for the Sussex is value for sure.
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Not sure Ribchesters connections will be in the least bit worried about Churchill turning up.
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Not sure Ribchester is unbeatable Unc. He looks like the best older horse around at a mile but it wasn't a very strong division with Galileo Gold, The Gurka and Awtad. I am not saying this 3 year old bunch are better but the standard to beat is not high.
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Obviously, Churchill never ran to his best, but img, it was his 3rd group 1 in about 8 weeks. basically, he's been kept on the go during that time, whereas the winner was fresh, as avoiding the Irish Guinness. Taking the result at face value, through Lancaster Bomber, whom is fast ground dependant, I'd expect Churchill to run an awful better in the Sussex, given the classic 5 week prep.
Another aside, how many horses have completed the English and Irish 2k and sjp..they are not machines, they need to rest sometime, and imo, cool more were being greedy about breeding purposes before the horses wellbeing |
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3 group 1s in 7 weeks was the fans undoing
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Assuming all is well with Churchill and he goes for the Sussex Stakes I'd like to think he'll redeem himself with aplomb. I understand Ribchester won the Queen Anne (rightly so) however, I thought he was coming to the end of his tether at the business end; Ribchester against Churchill on no firmer than good ground my money will be on the latter, even with Barney Roy in opposition should Sheikh is game.
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