Horse Antepost
Churchill was put in at 13/8 by most at the beginning but has been pushed out to 7/2 now; if he wins the 2000G (present fav at 13/8) 7/2 is value as his price for this race will shorten significantly as he is a near certainty to take part unless of course if Churchill takes in the Epsom Derby, and AOB relies on Caravaggio for this, assuming Caravaggio runs well or wins the French 2000G.
And if he doesn't win it won't be value.
Given Chruchill is by Galileo he is far from certain to run in the race either if he wins the Guineas. Yet another full on assumption.
Churchill is about 7/4 for the 2000G and was the same for this when the market 1st opened. But now he is 7/2, why? The protagonists are virtually the same, and this is six weeks post 2000 Guineas.
Seriously? You actually need telling? Having you been watching any racing the last few weeks or just playing with sticklebricks?
As for Churchill - obv the Storm Cat influence isn't ideal, but he's so good relative to the opposition at this stage - as the master of understatement Ryan Moore said it best "He'd be the best ride in the race, I'm sure of that"
Happy Punting, Gents
May 8, 2017 -- 6:40PM, Howellsy wrote:
ffs, What Moore actually said was 'I doubt I'll get a better ride in the race' which is not quite the same thing!
true, still the esteem they hold Caravaggio could see him slot in at 1m and let Churchill take up the Derby - though there are a lot of horses left to play yet, Chester, Lingfield + Dante all have huge entries,
to name but a few (and arguing the opposite of Church stepping up) look only at Mars, Ruler of the World, US Army Ranger, Idaho et al who were very lightly raced right now and placed if I'm not mistaken 5,1,2,3
May 8, 2017 -- 6:30PM, impossible123 wrote:
Caravaggio is no longer in the betting market for the French 2000G this weekend - he must have been withdrawn. Orderofthegarter has been installed the new 7/2 fav; not surprised after the victory of Churchill, and AOB having no sprinting star at present.
That's interesting - I checked France Gallop 15 mins ago and he was in, now the site is down for maintenance (I thought it said Forfeit was tomorrow morning) - but you could interpret it a few ways, maybe he goes straight to the Irish 2000 / he stays at less than 1m.
From my experience, with Ballydoyle being a Stallion-Production-Line, the value of 1m G1 to go with his undoubted speed would greatly enhance his value than if he never proved to be more than a Sprinter.
BUT - I could be convinced otherwise and would like to hear a view to that effect. IMO, they all go to Coolmore with Speed, but they also have Stamina - e.g they bought Pride of Dubai from AUS who was an outstanding 2yo over 6-7f, and wasn't seen to full effect at 3yo but being by Street Cry out of a Danehill mare he has Stamina.
I have assumed (dangerously) since the Winter that Churchill follows a similar path as Gleneagles did (or should have) English Guineas, Irish Guineas, St James Palace, Sussex Stakes finishing up with the QE2.
Apologies if this is this the wrong thread- Couldnt decide whether to post in this or the Derby one!
1 MANKIB GB M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg 455 HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM F. HEAD (S) 35.350
2 brametot ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 515 G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND/AL SHAQAB JC. ROUGET (S) 126.400
3 LE BRIVIDO M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** PRCE FAISAL BIN KHALED A. FABRE (S) 29.950
4 orderofthegarter ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 44.151
5 taj mahal ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 39.352
6 LESHLAA USA M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** GODOLPHIN S. BIN SUROOR 6.245
7 salsabeel ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** GODOLPHIN C. APPLEBY 18.284
8 INNS OF COURT IRE M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** GODOLPHIN SNC A. FABRE (S) 26.500
9 whitecliffsofdover usa m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O'BRIEN 89.353
10 THE GRAPE ESCAPE IRE M.PS. 3 a. 58 kg *** JOHN MANLEY R. HANNON 8.009
11 caravaggio usa m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 302.418
12 peace envoy m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O'BRIEN 162.133
13 south seas ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** QATAR RACING LIMITED AM. BALDING 113.625
14 national defense (gb) m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 535 SUN BLOODSTOCK SARL MME C. HEAD-MAAREK 240.490
15 rivet ire m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg *** THE STARSHIP PARTNERSHIP WJ. HAGGAS 301.865
16 african ride (gb) m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 470 WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. LAFFON-PARIAS 58.750
17 spotify m.ps. 3 a. 58 kg 495 WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. FERLAND (S) 33.000
Check it out here also:
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/51137/aidan-obrien-keeps-caravaggio-in-hunt-for-french-2000-guineas
May 9, 2017 -- 1:29PM, Jb23 wrote:
Could Order of the Garter step up to the Derby trip after the French 2000G? I can't help but think AOB needs one of Sir John Lavery, Venice Beach, Exemplar & co to come out of the Chester Vase, Dante or Lingfield trial because Capri, Douglas MacArthur & Yucatan didn't personally inspire me as Derby winners. Churchill can then stay at a mile for the Irish 2000G & then St James Palace. I have assumed (dangerously) since the Winter that Churchill follows a similar path as Gleneagles did (or should have) English Guineas, Irish Guineas, St James Palace, Sussex Stakes finishing up with the QE2. Apologies if this is this the wrong thread- Couldnt decide whether to post in this or the Derby one!
Orderofthegarter could possibly step up, that's true - his breeding suggests he'd be more likely to get the trip - but I think there's a reasonable chance that if nothing comes out of the trials, and Caravaggio is v impressive in France (and I think he will be), then that horse could take up the 1m races and Churchill given a shot at the Derby,
I think you've got to ask - what price Churchill with a run, and how likely - I think the 5/1 is pretty short still, but not far from the correct mark.
I also think there's every chance Caravaggio will be the top 1miler this year, so while I think Churchill was value for more in the 2000 at Newmarket, I'm keeping powder dry on his future entries - Being by Scat Daddy (1m winner at 2yo), out of a Holy Bull (1m2f G1 winner) Mare, no reason to think Caravaggio won't get 1m and he was extremely impressive as a 2yo, but then they are all individuals, and Caravaggio has so much natural speed it's incredible so - we'll see on Sunday, I expect he'll race, and that will be v interesting.
Question also is whether they would race Churchill and Caravaggio against each other !? ...
Interestingly in the interview with Lydia Hislop immediately after Churchill's victory in the 2000G AOB was upbeat and alluded to Churchill's participation in the Epsom Derby when asked as the horse's temperament and racing style meant he could be made to run in any distance. However, having had more time to reflect AOB was more guarded and said the "boys" would decide.
I think Caravaggio will/or be scratched on sunday unless all is not well with Orderofthegarter and/or his other probable runners; if so, he'd most likely to be kept to sprint races eg Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup.
The value of him winning a G1 over 1m is huge to his Sire potential, and he just strikes me intuitively as being something special. He has a ridiculous amount of natural speed and should stay 1m.
Yes, there are a few more bullets for AO'B to fire in the next Derby Trials, but none strike me as being good enough,
Ryan Moore + Tabor gave me confidence they were not opposed to taking Churchill up to the Derby trip.
A lot more will be revealed after Sunday, and the trials, but I just think Caravaggio is going to beast the 1m division. Churchill will then go for the Derby and 1m2 races.
As you said in another thread it's about opinions - I'm happy to take the chance it all goes wrong, but for a small stake I think it's a good plan.
As this game is mainly about opinions, extracting and maximising value there is little alternative, I suppose.
1) He said when Caravaggio was taken out of Newmarket that he wouldn't race Churchill but might look at Deauville or The Curragh
2) He said after the winners at the wkend that a decision on Caravagio racing in Deauville would be taken on Monday / Tuesday
He is in the race still, with likely dead wood Taj Mahal (needs further), Peace Envoy (non-stayer), the smart Whitecliffsofdover and Orderofthegarter
Easily though either one of the latter two can be taken out for the Irish 2000, Atm the race is on Sunday, they have the fav (Caravaggio) and imo they'll run him and probably one more definite 1miler (as you have to account for the fact he hasn't been past 6f even is he's likely to stay 1m)
As for the Commonwealth Cup - IMO, they have other horses: Smart ones too in Brave Anna, Peace Envoy and Intelligence Cross, all who want 6f at a max.
What they don't have, amazingly, is a smart Derby horse as whatever questions there are about Churchill there are even more about Cliffs of Moher who is a doubtful stayer and while he looked impressive the reliability of that form is low, but we'll see about him soon enough. (should go in the Dee Stakes)
Everyone connected with Coolmore has to say the right thing so they can be used as quotes in breeding catalogue. Listen he's a lovely horse.
Don't get me wrong they are an amazing operation on and off the track and put Godolphin and the Maktoums to shame. Only Juddmonte seems able to produce high class horses on such a regular basis and they are gradually scaling down, and increasingly concentrating on the USA dirt side, as Prince Khalid gets older.
impossible123 09 May 17 16:43
Interestingly in the interview with Lydia Hislop immediately after Churchill's victory in the 2000G AOB was upbeat and alluded to Churchill's participation in the Epsom Derby when asked as the horse's temperament and racing style meant he could be made to run in any distance.
May 10, 2017 -- 4:41AM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:
There is more stamina in Cliffs of Moher's pedigree than Churchill's. The dams in Churchill's pedigree were all sprinters whereas the dams in COM's pedigree stayed at least 10 furlongs. The sires are also a greater influence for stamina, so purely on breeding alone and ignoring their ability and racing style, COM would have more chance of developing into a 12 furlong horse.
I don't know about that - AO'B trained the Dam of CoM and he said she barely got 5f - and that the French Derby might be better for him.
Obv w Churchill it's an unknown (if he'll get the trip - but he'd prob have gotten 1m as a 2yo) - But at least you have an above-par 2000 winner vs a Maiden winner. As Tabor said, "if you know you have the stamina you probably don't have the speed", and a "we'll see, something might stick its head out tomorrow (derrinstown)"
She was bred to stay 10 furlongs, the second and third dams stayed at least that far. COM should stay 12 furlongs when racing in the right class, whether he is good enough to win a Derby is another matter entirely and only time will tell.
Churchill is obviously the better horse at this stage but in my view there are far more doubts about his ability to stay 12 furlongs at Epsom given their respective pedigrees.
That still remains to be proved.
May 10, 2017 -- 4:54PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:
The dam had three runs as a two year old, she was beaten 3/4 of a length over 7 furlongs before winning over 5 furlongs at Dundalk on her third start. She then had one run as a three year old after an absence of a year before being retired.She was bred to stay 10 furlongs, the second and third dams stayed at least that far. COM should stay 12 furlongs when racing in the right class, whether he is good enough to win a Derby is another matter entirely and only time will tell.Churchill is obviously the better horse at this stage but in my view there are far more doubts about his ability to stay 12 furlongs at Epsom given their respective pedigrees.
Jack, I'll just give you the quote from AO'B himself: (and his dam was found out at 6f - he trained her, and so...)
anyway, maybe it's of interest:
“He’s not far away from starting back. We’re thinking of Chester for a Derby trial for him. We thought he was very nice the first day he ran at Cork, but the ground was very bad and he just got a bit lost going right handed. He went to Leopardstown after that and the plan was to drop him in, but he hit the gate fast with Seamus so he let him run and he won very easy. He beat Orderofthegarter that day, but he might have caught him on a bad day, as Orderofthegarter was green and a bit slow to react on the day. I don’t know if he’s as good as that bare form suggests, but we’ll be delighted if he is. You couldn’t be sure about how far he’ll stay, as his dam only barely got five furlongs. He could be an Epsom horse or maybe he could be a horse for the Prix du Jockey Club, we’ll see what he does in his trial. He’s a good mover and I think the better the ground is, the better it will suit him.”
May 10, 2017 -- 5:16PM, Figgis wrote:
at least you have an above-par 2000 winnerThat still remains to be proved.
stop trolling, Figgis - the field was very strong, even Lancaster Bomber was deemed good enough to have a go at the KY Derby (had he gotten in), and Churchill took 2L out of that horse by jumping into the bridle. Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trials.
Maybe Churchill got the run of the race - I don't dispute that, but I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off.
The fact that Coolmore were willing to have a crack at the KY Derby with one of their back up runners is neither here or there.
Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trials
They all won their trials in the manner of horses that needed to step up on that to win an average Guineas, even most of their backers were agreed on this. In the event none of them did.
I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off.
They're your opinions, which might turn out to be right, but at the moment they're just conjecture.
We hear enough hype from the Coolmore machine and the racing media but as punters we can keep it real. At this stage Churchill hasn't one piece of form to say he's a better than par Guineas winner. Maybe he'll go on to prove he is an outstanding miler and any punter is entitled to predict he will and back him accordingly, but don't expect everyone to swallow it until it happens.
May 10, 2017 -- 9:57PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:
That is clearly nonsense as she stayed 7 furlongs as a two year old. I tend to ignore what AOB says and form my own opinion about his horses, and that approach has served me well for many years.
I don't know - she was tried at 7f, dictated a steady gallop, and was caught inside in the final furlong, so next race she was dropped back to 5f and got off the mark. If the trainer says she struggled to get 6f (or 7f), I don't see any reason not to believe him, especially as it's a very frank and open admission that could affect the horse as a Sire ... !?
May 10, 2017 -- 10:02PM, Figgis wrote:
even Lancaster Bomber was deemed good enough to have a go at the KY DerbyThe fact that Coolmore were willing to have a crack at the KY Derby with one of their back up runners is neither here or there. Nevermind Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent and what they did in their trialsThey all won their trials in the manner of horses that needed to step up on that to win an average Guineas, even most of their backers were agreed on this. In the event none of them did.I think he was value for a bit more. He does idle, and if you see the photos from the far side, with 50m to go he was looking back across the field, IMO just holding them off.They're your opinions, which might turn out to be right, but at the moment they're just conjecture.We hear enough hype from the Coolmore machine and the racing media but as punters we can keep it real. At this stage Churchill hasn't one piece of form to say he's a better than par Guineas winner. Maybe he'll go on to prove he is an outstanding miler and any punter is entitled to predict he will and back him accordingly, but don't expect everyone to swallow it until it happens.
That's fair enough - Yes it's a lot about opinions - I think he was value for a bit more, and I think he'll improve for the race. Obv AO'b can get them fit enough to win fto, but also does take his time with a lot of others - and obv he's been in trouble w the Ire Stewards over Music Box bc of that.
Going forward - I do like Al Wukair who is only a shell compared to Churchill and Barney Roy. Eminent could prove v useful over a bit longer and also has some filling in to do.
I think Churchill will benefit from race-fitness,
e.g. Looking at his fto Guineas horses (who were the no1, and a real chance),
Air Force Blue - not representative so I ignore him, even if he did 'improve' eventually ...
Gleneagles - hard to judge as he did go down in RPR but that was in winning the Irish 2000 and St James by good distances, so you'd question the opposition he had in those races
Australia - By RPR at least, went up 3lbs at Epsom, and a further 4lbs at York.
Mars - went up 10 at Epsom, and a further 5 in the St James
Camelot - went up 5 at Epsom, before reverting back to level of Newmarket
in '11 Roderic O'Connor ran no sort of race, but did come back to win the Irish 2000
You could go on, ... probably to get a representative sample you'd have to look at all that ran plenty as 2yos and then ran a good race in the 2000 fto, so - you can do that - I have my impression, and I also have about Caravaggio, so in fact I'm one less interested in him in the St James etc.. as about him in the Derby
May 10, 2017 -- 10:12PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:
I have just watched the race again and she clearly stays 7 furlongs and the overall time was not bad. To suggest she barely stays 5 furlongs is just complete nonsense.
fair enough - I read the trainer's opinion of him (and his dam) and I'm happy to learn differently
I had Caravaggio the best 2yo for a few years and whatever he does in future I'm confident about my opinion of him last year. However, the way Coolmore were dithering about a 7f trial, then quick to avoid the Guineas with him, then dither some more about the French Guineas as an option has curbed my enthusiasm about him in the near future.
May 10, 2017 -- 10:53PM, Figgis wrote:
I have my impression, and I also have about CaravaggioI had Caravaggio the best 2yo for a few years and whatever he does in future I'm confident about my opinion of him last year. However, the way Coolmore were dithering about a 7f trial, then quick to avoid the Guineas with him, then dither some more about the French Guineas as an option has curbed my enthusiasm about him in the near future.
Good to see I'm not alone in my impression of Caravaggio - but I'd put forward that they knew Churchill handled Newmarket well, and had a 7f race under him. From a Stallion pov, much better NOT to bomb at Newmarket and maybe not find 1m in France (though I suspect he will, and it seems so do they).
You could say it's a little weak-tight but protecting them as Sire-prospects is the game.
One thing is for sure, we'll know a LOT more after this wkend.
Re: Churchill - I do think he's above-par, but I'd lay a long-price that he's going to super-special as a miler. I think he's about top 25% of recent Guineas winners, but no more.
May 28, 2017 -- 3:25PM, impossible123 wrote:
I had my reservation that he'd be stepped-up in distance earlier however, with Minding injured - flag carrier at 10f - and AOB's allusion he'd could be immediately post Irish 2000G victory I'd be inclined to think that might be the case, but it will not an easy decision for connections esp with so many prestigious mile races over the next few months; Coolmore also have Highland Reel, Deauville and others to rely on for 10f/12f.
I'm not saying w confidence, but I think we might see him at 10 sooner now, HR is more a 1m4 horse now, Deauville isn't really the standard you'd want, the 4yo+ miler division is tougher than the 10f division, so ... has was extremely impressive on ground he clearly didn't love, he could be really special. I don't know about Sandown, maybe York for the Juddmonte, certainly I imagine if the ground is right then the Irish Champion Stakes will be definitely one they'd want on his CV - it's one of the highest rated races in the world and it's a day when the Irish breeders are present
Minding, even if back on schedule at the end of August, the Irish Champion Stakes would be asking too much of her as a come back race, I'd think.
May 29, 2017 -- 3:12PM, impossible123 wrote:
Almanzor could be aimed at the Juddmonte International if coming off the Sky Bet York Stakes satisfactorily three weeks earlier; a mouth watering clash with Churchill should AB decide the Juddmonte is the race to step-up-in-distance with Churchill.
good point re: Almanzor - will have to put his comeback date in my diary. Rouget won a good race yday, hopefull his horses are over the worst of it.
I'd expect AOB and Godolphin to field a pacemaker for Churchill and Barney Roy respectively; Peace Envoy and Boynton are possible too. In total about 7 or 8 runners, I think.
looks the perfect miler
Churchill will reaffirm superiority over Barney Roy, and then Ribchester in the Sussex, I reckon.
we won't see Churchill in the Eclipse it's a really tough race for 3yos - York maybe...
16 x 3yr olds have won the race in the last 40 years.
40% strike rate
No doubt he can get 10f but they appear to have earmarked the Eclipse for Cliffs Of Moher and he needs the Group 1 on his CV more than Churchill does.
One bad race in hot condition and firm ground after winning his last six consecutive races including two 2000 Guineases does not devalue his form especially with Lancaster Bomber coming in 1 length 2nd yesterday - Churchill has beaten this horse many time much further than that.
I do not think Churchill will be stepped-up in distance for the Eclipse because Coolmore has Cliffs Of Moher for that plus several others eg Deauville, Highland Reel, Idaho, etc.
They won't waste a 10f Group 1 on the likes if Deauville, Idaho etc,
Another aside, how many horses have completed the English and Irish 2k and sjp..they are not machines, they need to rest sometime, and imo, cool more were being greedy about breeding purposes before the horses wellbeing
