Scots National Looking Well

On average there has been 27-29 runners in this in recent years so can't see it cutting up.

Only ones with interest at moment on here has been Southfield Royale, Vicente, Premier Bond and Arpege D'Alene. But i only follow market movements this early on anyways.

Oh and seeyouatmidnight

Will Tulsa Jack or Shotgun paddy be aimed at this does anyone know? Bit early yet i know but SP beaten fav last 2 starts but ran really well, will be bottom to middle of the weights and is 25/1.

TJ was encouraging last time out i thought and is also 25/1

Agreed STS It's very difficult predicting the alternative long distance races particularly nicholls and Henderson will choose to go for. Nowadays for ante post I try and pick one that is virtually certain to get in and has had the race declared as a clear target in advance. I see Seeyouatmidnight is in the irish national too but most likely will go for the scots I would have thought.

southfield royal well touted and going ok at chelt when falling,will love the trip but anyone else think the stables right of the boil at the moment , is the scots nash the plan,anyone heard anything

Main bet so far is Kruzhlinin at 33's, think this is the race for him, and glad they have given up on Aintree with him.

Also put a few pounds the way of Folsom Blue & Fine Rightly, both again at 33's, but I do have my eye on a couple of the Pipe runners in Rathlin Rose & What A Moment.

What A Moment is 50-1, but he has slipped down the weights, since his Cheltenham win in November, and was cruising in The NH Chase, before being pulled up before 2 out. Initially I thought he was amiss, but having seen his entry here, I just wonder whether or not he was told to look after him if he wasn't going to get there. A bit of a loud one I suppose, but at 50-1, he'd be my second main fancy now behind Kruzhlinin.

Depends on when the deadline was for the entries as regards What a Moment don't it Fabulous

Otherwise i share your opinion on him

And just looking at it again there the pipe runners you mention might struggle to get in. Last 2 runnings at least the rating of the lowest was 135 and 136. WaM is 132 and RR 134. Will be close i think

Yeah StS, fraught with danger betting those way lower down, as there's nothing worse than waiting to get your money back when they get balloted out, only for them to get taken out anyway. That's happened to me more than once. I will certainly hold fire on the 2 of them anyway, and Rathlin may be one for B365 Gold Cup at Sandown anyway.

PREMIER BOND 14-1 e.w. good jumper, acts on any ground, not entered at Sandown. Looks like trip will suit, ran on well up Chelt hill at festival. One for Arthur doesn't appear to be going here so 14's might not last. Only negative Henderson doesn't seem to target this race. Win this and finish top trainer, though.

When r the weights out for this is it Thursday 10am?

Two that caught my eye so far:

Vicente, last years winner. Fell at the first in the GN, so did not have a race to be fair, I fancy Nicholls might run him here given that, if none the worse for the fall. Runs of the same mark of 146.

Vyta Du Roc, he was fifth in the race last year behind Vicente, and interestingly he has a mark 8lb less this time around, another year stronger will surely run a good race.

Plenty more I need to look at....

Vyta du Roc is very interesting for this for sure but he is also entered in the Sandown race b 365?

No doubt vdr will shorten significantly if news broke this is where he will go

Has to be VICENTE for me ...

I backed him after he fell at Aintree....

Connection spent money to buy horse for National they can redeem some money here...

Vicente's been dire since Hennessy even in valuable Grand Nat.Trial where good run wouldn't have effected his big race weight. Jumped poorly there, hard to forgive.

ANOTHER HERO 4th reserve in the Irish national... Unlikely to make the cut... Trainer stated yesterday if he doesn't get in he will be re-routed to Scottish equivalent.

Available at 20s

Main bet though edging towards MYSTEREE - fancied him for midlands national where he was 2nd ... It did take him a while to get going and showed an abundance of stamina when running on to try to win the race... And let's not forget He also won the Eider chase really well... But is a horse that runs well...

Not really sure of the effect of too many races may takes it toll on the horse but so tempting on 10-8.... Even if weights rise he might still be on 11st mark....

I already backed him... But will wait again on decs for his weight before deciding whether he is the one.

Iris,

I agree that Another Hero has a chance if he gets in the race.

I too strongly fancied  Mysteree, but not convinced he will take part !

I think we can safely say it will be good ground, there's a couple that may or may not need it softer that I hope don't turn up. Another Hero will like the ground but may be too flaky for this,can't be sure so I'd rather he didn't make the cut.

Glad Tulsa Jack and Final Nudge haven't turned up, Missed Approach still there but must be a doubt with ground, could be a danger.

I am really surprised Vyta Du Roc isn't here. That's £22 down the drain but still have a couple there

SUGAR BARON 33-1 E.W. Gary Nutting on ATR site made a good case for this one yesterday. I will add the longer trip and therefore slower pace could help his jumping which can be a bit slow under pressure. He joins my other Henderson pick, 33's won't last.

Also annoyed MYSTEREE not declared...
But dabbled again with SELDOM INN 20s....
Like this horse tends to run at Kelso... backed him 2 runs ago for the Grimthorpe chase where he wasn't declared and was re-routed to Kelso and Won.. .but trainer has indicated he is running now ... fingers crossed though...
Scottish horse so money will come for him... but I think he has a real good shout at that price...

My two against the field :-

Premier Bond @ 9/1 and Another Hero @ 20/1

Missed Approach jocked up. I've seen plenty of comments before from trainer that horse is ground dependent, needing soft. Can't believe anything. I see it's good to soft, good in places, though, and they are watering to maintain that.
  This race just gets harder to solve the closer it gets.

Agree souldancer..this race is really tough... nothing really sticks out from a form perspective as the ground will be faster than what they have encountered...

All mine have been speculative choices as to firm ones... difficult to see a clear angle in this...

Just doing my usual here and following the market. Backed a few and got 14s and 16s about front 4 then 25s the next couple so sitting nicely. Just did trustan times this morning at 25s also. Will now wait till final decs as can't see anything else that's beating the book. Was really annoyed Vyta du Roc wasn't declared as thought he had a great shout as mentioned above by gi-mac as he was 25s but will check he's going to go for bet365 as think that's a tip in itself, so we'll in for this yet taken out? Hmm.

Henderson has left in SUGAR BARON as posted earlier has come in for some support - 6th in the Kim Muir at cheltenham... not convinced on his form but Vyta backers should redeem on him @25

iv'e thrown a few £s ew on last years second ALVARADO at 33-1.(more hope for a place)

worried he will not make the cut,but fancy he might scrape in the bottom with a lovely racing weight of 10-4(129).

been pretty poor in his 4 runs this season but seems to rise to the occasion in these big nationals(4th in many clouds(140) and pineau de re's(139) aintree showpiece).

at 12 there's a worry he might have gone,but not risking much at big odds.

6 places would be nice saturday morning, why don't betfair have a ante post place market on these big races.

This looks easier on the day, lots of ifs and buts and maybes about plenty of these. Gone in on my two again and a cheeky forecast. Henderson camp sound pretty confident about Premier Bond think he's well h'capped and looks solid to me.

Tough race to solve indeed, premier bond looks solid but i don't remember Henderson having many 4 milers winners if any at all. Vintage clouds haydock form has worked out reasonably well but he's a dodgy jumper. This years NH chase doesn't look as strong as last years up to now. Southfield royale as had a breathing op which makes him risky. Vicente had been aimed at national all year according to nicholls so how much ability has been concealed and how much retained is anyone's guess. 12 year olds don't have a great record, i think some like Alvarado have been given every chance to place but can't see any of them actually winning. Trustan times came back to form last time and is 6lb lower than when placing. Another e/w contender but he had previously placed off 144 in a big Cheltenham handicap two years ago so winning a kelso handicap off 130 is not conclusive proof he is back to top form. Shotgun paddy failed to fire here last time and generally finds a couple too good. Henri parry Morgan continues to disappoint.

^ soooo.....the winner is ...??

Backed Alvarado and Henri Pari Morgan, both each way five places.The latter has been disappointing this season but seems extremely well handicapped.

Couple of small win plays on Southfield Royale 12.5 & Premier Bond 14.0.
Gd luck all.

Kruzhlinin and Sugar Baron in Ew doubles with Cliffs of Moher in the derby for interest .
Good luck guys

Sugar baron for me
Lessons in Milan e/w

Very well done Iris

I didn't have a bet facts, probably should have given Vicente another chance after backing him in the national but cest la vie.

Frustrating when that happens.

Thanks Facts - It was a much harder race tbf... I backed VICENTE early after he fell in the english national... thought he was on a real good mark... but wouldn't have backed him on his current  mark today as I thought the slight rise did his chances ...

Just shows when things go right in antepost and betted on mindset at that time - doesn't happen very often but nice when it does...

Also great ride by COGRY... didn't back him for this but that run was impressive... I wonder if he will get in English national next year?