Scots National Looking Well

Oh and seeyouatmidnight

Agreed STS It's very difficult predicting the alternative long distance races particularly nicholls and Henderson will choose to go for. Nowadays for ante post I try and pick one that is virtually certain to get in and has had the race declared as a clear target in advance. I see Seeyouatmidnight is in the irish national too but most likely will go for the scots I would have thought.

Main bet so far is Kruzhlinin at 33's, think this is the race for him, and glad they have given up on Aintree with him.

Also put a few pounds the way of Folsom Blue & Fine Rightly, both again at 33's, but I do have my eye on a couple of the Pipe runners in Rathlin Rose & What A Moment.

What A Moment is 50-1, but he has slipped down the weights, since his Cheltenham win in November, and was cruising in The NH Chase, before being pulled up before 2 out. Initially I thought he was amiss, but having seen his entry here, I just wonder whether or not he was told to look after him if he wasn't going to get there. A bit of a loud one I suppose, but at 50-1, he'd be my second main fancy now behind Kruzhlinin.

And just looking at it again there the pipe runners you mention might struggle to get in. Last 2 runnings at least the rating of the lowest was 135 and 136. WaM is 132 and RR 134. Will be close i think

PREMIER BOND 14-1 e.w. good jumper, acts on any ground, not entered at Sandown. Looks like trip will suit, ran on well up Chelt hill at festival. One for Arthur doesn't appear to be going here so 14's might not last. Only negative Henderson doesn't seem to target this race. Win this and finish top trainer, though.

Two that caught my eye so far:

Vicente, last years winner. Fell at the first in the GN, so did not have a race to be fair, I fancy Nicholls might run him here given that, if none the worse for the fall. Runs of the same mark of 146.

Vyta Du Roc, he was fifth in the race last year behind Vicente, and interestingly he has a mark 8lb less this time around, another year stronger will surely run a good race.

Plenty more I need to look at....

No doubt vdr will shorten significantly if news broke this is where he will go

Vicente's been dire since Hennessy even in valuable Grand Nat.Trial where good run wouldn't have effected his big race weight. Jumped poorly there, hard to forgive.

Main bet though edging towards MYSTEREE - fancied him for midlands national where he was 2nd ... It did take him a while to get going and showed an abundance of stamina when running on to try to win the race... And let's not forget He also won the Eider chase really well... But is a horse that runs well...

Not really sure of the effect of too many races may takes it toll on the horse but so tempting on 10-8.... Even if weights rise he might still be on 11st mark....

I already backed him... But will wait again on decs for his weight before deciding whether he is the one.

I think we can safely say it will be good ground, there's a couple that may or may not need it softer that I hope don't turn up. Another Hero will like the ground but may be too flaky for this,can't be sure so I'd rather he didn't make the cut.

I am really surprised Vyta Du Roc isn't here. That's £22 down the drain but still have a couple there

Also annoyed MYSTEREE not declared...
But dabbled again with SELDOM INN 20s....
Like this horse tends to run at Kelso... backed him 2 runs ago for the Grimthorpe chase where he wasn't declared and was re-routed to Kelso and Won.. .but trainer has indicated he is running now ... fingers crossed though...
Scottish horse so money will come for him... but I think he has a real good shout at that price...

Missed Approach jocked up. I've seen plenty of comments before from trainer that horse is ground dependent, needing soft. Can't believe anything. I see it's good to soft, good in places, though, and they are watering to maintain that.
  This race just gets harder to solve the closer it gets.

Just doing my usual here and following the market. Backed a few and got 14s and 16s about front 4 then 25s the next couple so sitting nicely. Just did trustan times this morning at 25s also. Will now wait till final decs as can't see anything else that's beating the book. Was really annoyed Vyta du Roc wasn't declared as thought he had a great shout as mentioned above by gi-mac as he was 25s but will check he's going to go for bet365 as think that's a tip in itself, so we'll in for this yet taken out? Hmm.

iv'e thrown a few £s ew on last years second ALVARADO at 33-1.(more hope for a place)

worried he will not make the cut,but fancy he might scrape in the bottom with a lovely racing weight of 10-4(129).

been pretty poor in his 4 runs this season but seems to rise to the occasion in these big nationals(4th in many clouds(140) and pineau de re's(139) aintree showpiece).

at 12 there's a worry he might have gone,but not risking much at big odds.

6 places would be nice saturday morning, why don't betfair have a ante post place market on these big races.

Tough race to solve indeed, premier bond looks solid but i don't remember Henderson having many 4 milers winners if any at all. Vintage clouds haydock form has worked out reasonably well but he's a dodgy jumper. This years NH chase doesn't look as strong as last years up to now. Southfield royale as had a breathing op which makes him risky. Vicente had been aimed at national all year according to nicholls so how much ability has been concealed and how much retained is anyone's guess. 12 year olds don't have a great record, i think some like Alvarado have been given every chance to place but can't see any of them actually winning. Trustan times came back to form last time and is 6lb lower than when placing. Another e/w contender but he had previously placed off 144 in a big Cheltenham handicap two years ago so winning a kelso handicap off 130 is not conclusive proof he is back to top form. Shotgun paddy failed to fire here last time and generally finds a couple too good. Henri parry Morgan continues to disappoint.

Backed Alvarado and Henri Pari Morgan, both each way five places.The latter has been disappointing this season but seems extremely well handicapped.

Kruzhlinin and Sugar Baron in Ew doubles with Cliffs of Moher in the derby for interest .
Good luck guys

Very well done Iris