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GI MAC
17 Jan 17 17:02
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Date Joined: 23 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 3,025 | Blogger: GI MAC's blog
Of the Irish entries I like Ivan Grozny and Mick Jazz but no idea if any of them will turn up. The following have also caught my eye:

Ballyandy – 10/1
After getting beaten by Moon Racer (twice) and then MDO people have been writing this one off, but it would not surprise me if NTD has had this race in mind since the start of the season for him. He did a similar thing with Splash Of Ginge, a few runs in novice company before making his hcp debut in this, similar with Flying Angel in last year’s renewal. As the bumper winner he’s not so much under the radar as those two, current price makes no appeal.

William H Bonney – 33/1
Ran in some decent novice hurdles last season including at Newbury, flopped at Cheltenham but that may not be his course or he didn’t like the ground.

Trainer has always rated this one, held up due to some niggles this season. He ran OK on his seasonal debut (g/s) at Kempton before fading and should come on from this, been dropped 4lbs since to a mark of 132. No idea if this is his aim but I think he has been underestimated by the handicapper. I like this one.

Gassin Golf – 33/1
In March 2015 he won a handicap off a mark of 135 over course and distance. He then ran OK off a higher mark behind Cheltenian at Ayr and finished the season on a mark of 140. He was pulled up the following season at Chepstow and was off until he returned this season where he has finished 2nd fto and then 5th at Newbury suggesting he still retains ability and should strip fitter. He is interesting off his current mark of 133 at a price.

Bertimont – 50/1
Been dropped from 151 to 130 very rapidly for his last 3 runs, seems a drastic drop? Maybe he is not as good anymore but mark is interesting.

Wait For Me – 16/1
Is sitting on a mark of 138 which could underestimate him, he ran well in the Supreme and I’d be tempted to forgive his run afterwards. His seasonal debut was fine and should come on for it, has very good course form. Very interesting.

It’s a bit far out and I’m not sure if he is being aimed at the race but going to have a wee punt on William H Bonney at 33/1, will have another look closer to the day.

Good Luck!

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Replies: 92
By:
unclepuncle
When: 17 Jan 17 17:46
Wait For Me definitely interesting.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 17 Jan 17 18:34
when are the weights published for this?
By:
JackieMoon33
When: 17 Jan 17 19:15
Wait For Me did not run in the Supreme, he ran in the County Hurdle as a novice and was placed off 139 which is 1lb higher than now. He has a lot of ability (3rd behind Moon Racer in the Champion Bumper) but his jumping has been suspect. I can see him landing a big 2m handicap if his jumping holds together for a full race.
By:
betilyerded
When: 17 Jan 17 19:30
Wait For Me entered up to run at Ascot Saturday.

Not getting involved just yet but two that interest me at the moment are the novices Keep In Line and Charlemar. Both have been impressive in Novice hurdles before coming up short in Graded company but have been reasonably handicapped as a result.

Keep In Line is well regarded and looks the sort to be suited by a big field end to end gallop such as this whilst Charlemar has been given a similar prep, and is in the same ownership, as Arzal who was very unlucky in the race a couple of years back.
By:
GI MAC
When: 17 Jan 17 19:38
He did indeed run in County, my mistake, cheers for pointing that out
By:
kavvie
When: 18 Jan 17 09:57
what about the king one that was heavily backed over the christmas? 3/1 f never showed
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Jan 17 19:45
I think Ballyandy on 10-6 has been given a real opportunity to open his account for the season if he is able to reproduce his early form post the long rest since his last race on 2nd Dec; Modus (12/1) is closely matched with Moon Racer, twice conqueror of Ballyandy (10/1), but the 1st named is giving 20lbs to him. And at 10/1 Ballyandy is a good e/w bet, surely.
By:
shockster
When: 23 Jan 17 08:56
Clyne now looks to have an obvious chance from a handicapping point of view. Will be 8-10lb well in when his new OR is released tomorrow. Can still run off 143 as this race is an early closer, but will be rated 151-153 I reckon after splitting The New One & L'ami Serge on Saturday. I took a bit of 12/1 yesterday, but 10/1 still decent value I'd say and trainer says will run.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 23 Jan 17 21:39
Totally agree Shockster - think CLYNE run was very impressive... he really pushed The New One... and with L'Ami Serge in 3rd think its a very good yardstick.  Was stated in the RP today he will run - I also agree 10/1 is generous... think he will go off favourite.
By:
opatcho
When: 24 Jan 17 18:43
Wouldn't trust any form line that has The New One in it. Can't have Clyne

Backed Consul De Thiax at 13/1 and threw a few quid on Koshari at 25/1 (not sure whether it will make a showing)
By:
shockster
When: 24 Jan 17 19:42
Handicapper only raised Clyne 5lb. Very lenient IMO, but as it doesn't affect this race he has nothing to lose. Can be reassessed after it.
By:
deepingfox
When: 24 Jan 17 22:31
Looking at the weights its PETE THE MAYO MAN at 16/1, who looks to have been saved for this race, after his course win in November.  I also took the 33s that one bookie put up on SONG LIGHT on the basis that his placed effort in the Greatwood was a good one and he travelled like the best horse in the race for most of the way. Still well weighted, if he gets in.
By:
opatcho
When: 25 Jan 17 21:19
Had a look at Pete The Mayo Man. Will take another look if ground comes up good on be day - which is unlikely
By:
nocturnal
When: 29 Jan 17 10:10
Nice shout for WHB that far out GI.....trainer has another couple of interesting ones entered.

Strong stats race re weight and age.

One of my favourite races going back to the schweppes sponsorship.

Lets hope he runs,nice voucher to be sat on.
By:
GI MAC
When: 29 Jan 17 14:27
Trainer did say the race was under consideration in his weekender column, depending how he ran at Cheltenham, so I'm hopeful he runs. I love this race too..
By:
unclepuncle
When: 29 Jan 17 16:10
One of my all time favourite races too  - Shadow Leader probbly my best memory.Love

Looks like we are finally going to get plenty of wet stuff over the next couple of weeks so soft ground (or worse) looks certain
Quite intrested in Bags Groove but no idea if he is an intended runner so keeping my powder dry for now.
By:
Zagreb
When: 29 Jan 17 19:30
Is there any word on if Sutton Place goes for this? Was very impressed with him yesterday, and with a 5lb penalty he'd be running off 148.
He possibly is better with cut but ground should be suitable at Newbury.
When the handicapper has the chance to review his mark I think he will be put up towards 160 and if he runs I think he'll have a massive chance.
By:
GI MAC
When: 29 Jan 17 20:06
http://www.attheraces.com/news/2017/January/28/sutton-place-takes-limestone-lad-honours-at-naas
^ Doesn't sound like it, going by these comments. You never know, they might change their mind.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 29 Jan 17 20:59
GI MAC, King was positive about William H Bonney's participation in this in his post race interview following yesterday's win.

Quite like Zubayr myself, his run behind Brain Power and Consul De Thaix does n't look too bad now and he's been dropped 3lbs for that. Nicholls sounded far more enthusiastic about his prospects than that of the JP pair he trains in the Pricewise antepost preview for this and he is clearly being laid out for the race.

Shades of Zarkandar - although that one had much better form and was higher rated coming into the race when he won it.
By:
nocturnal
When: 29 Jan 17 21:48
Agree with Zubayr,potentially one of several who could leave their current mark behind.

With nicholls and the green and golds holding down the weights,plenty guesswork at this stage.

Noticeable how well those up with the pace have fared,in recent renewals.

So,5/6 yr old,ideally kept away from handicapper,possibly stays further,and form on easy ground,frontrunning

could be a big positive?

Should be straight forward once we get decs Wink
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Feb 17 18:33
Ooops - not Shadow Leader, it was Decoupage. Got my Charlie Egerton horses mixed up.Crazy
By:
1st time poster
When: 06 Feb 17 18:20
whats elliot sending over viennard buzzed round leop sloppy jump at last not much room, or would have gone close,money for it today ,will it turn up,
By:
luckyme
When: 06 Feb 17 22:15
1st tp

you would have to be interested at 20s if he came over, travelled well in the leopardstown race until sloppy jump at the last and traffic ahead.

But will he turn up, don't think so myself
By:
IDKW
When: 07 Feb 17 07:18
MOVEWITTHETIMES screams "Plot" for me.
His run behind Moon Racer at Cheltenham tells me he'll take care of Ballyandy here, and I really can't see much else to be too worried about. Grin
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Feb 17 08:00
It could be Ballyandy's day. He's been rested, and well-weighted to run a big race; he's a definite runner (if sound) and also loves the ground (softish).
By:
paulo47
When: 07 Feb 17 08:28
Agree re Movewiththetimes , trying to do a MTOY off 10lbs less , looked really good beating nothing at Wincanton and unlucky at Chelt .
By:
stevo1
When: 07 Feb 17 14:02
William H Bonney and Consul Da Thaix hopefully both show.
By:
Facts
When: 07 Feb 17 17:53
Ballyandy
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 07 Feb 17 18:22
interesting what ntd said in todays rp re ballyandy- basically said the weight was a 'gift'.
By:
GI MAC
When: 07 Feb 17 18:59
aye, was just reading that article. Ballyandy is on 135, beaten half a length by Messire Des Obauex who is now rated 146, so he could be right.
By:
alleged22
When: 07 Feb 17 19:39
chucking a few quid e/w on hargam, needs to return to form, I think he will run a big race
By:
alleged22
When: 07 Feb 17 19:41
any horse already placed in a triumph and ran in a CH ever run in this?
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Feb 17 21:55
The ground is soft/heavy, little rain is forecast, but cold.
By:
stevo1
When: 08 Feb 17 16:25
Consul Da Thaix a gonner re market.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Feb 17 16:38
seen a tweet from Johnny Ward reporting that Geraghty will ride Movewiththetimes and that Frank Berry says Consul De Thaix is a doubtful runner.
By:
dunlaying
When: 08 Feb 17 17:24
The subs will make every effort to use " Billy's The Kid".
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 08 Feb 17 20:13
Don't really understand the betting for this the way top 3 in the market contracting to 4s/5s again false market for antepost punters... will be 7s the fields come Saturday.

Anyway - still think CLYNE is the one to be on, think the form line with the New One was impressive on really poor ground, hence the money has come for him today, I do like the trainer and nice to see him have decent chance in a big Saturday handicap.

Also a bit of a word for BallyAndy - a month back connections were quite bullish about his Cheltenham prospects in that he must win this if he is good enough... so clearly have a Cheltenham target in mind after this race... albeit to win this race first.  Then comments from RP earlier this week - how they tried to keep his mark down for this race, which does suggest the word plot... but little value now but has to be in the shortlist - fingers crossed on price come saturday. OP was quite shrewd to suggest that in the opening post - hope you all took note :)

Anyway of the outsiders I do like Beltior 16/1 - (already backed him @25s) think on a flat track like Newbury will play to his strength - seemed like going places last season, there was a lot of expectation around him but not so much now, but weighted well and for me that's eye catching.

Wont bother with anything else - otherwise will end up with a shortlist of 10 ;)

Good Luck
By:
stevo1
When: 09 Feb 17 08:29
Consul Da Thaix out no surprise been drifting for last 3 days.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 09 Feb 17 11:52
How disappointing RENNETI coming out - weights up by 5lb
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