Horse Antepost
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Tingle Creek
Tingle Creek
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Replies: 88
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Im on UDS and have got everything crossed. I don't think the ground is a huge concern. Its not going to be quick. Clearly he would prefer it softer, but if he runs and Douvan doesnt, I think he will win in spite of it.
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douvan non/runner.
un de sceaux with ruby riding runs. |
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Result.
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Good news CCM: UDS, SDG, Ar Mad, God's and Sir V declared.
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Think God's Own is the main danger. He will love the ground
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Time to lay off some of your big-price backs CCM - it's a trappy little contest.
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Willie Mullins is well within his rights the way he withholds information but good luck to Gary Moore anyway.
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Do you think the books would have ever gone 5/1 if they were not sure?
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Gods own was a big price also? 16-20/1 when will he be rerouted?
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Not laying off yet Fangsy... i fancy UDS pretty strongly and can see him being nearer Even money at the off.
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The right faces have become the wrong faces imo.
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I don't know if Willie said either horse would def run or not. And without informed info everybody would just be guessing. Seems to me like a few people were trying to second guess Mullins and got it wrong.
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Spot on Blackrock. All Willie has done is kept his options open, and he had every right to do so.
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They meant to say that the right faces were laying the 5 4 3 2
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There has been manipulation of the market aided and abetted by the industry PR people and known and respected faces, and that is the truth. I challenge anyone getting sums of cash on backing only one of the two fancies from the same stable - you will be knocked back ie bet send to trader with no reason given.
The thing is this has been happening regularly and consistently especially from the Mullins stable, and the parasites must be stopped. I sincerely hope the enquiry instigated by the BHA into this eg Faugheen/Annie Power in the Champion Hurdle 2015 puts an end to this unsavoury saga for good. |
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Bookies proclaiming from the roof tops that the right faces are on simply serves as a tactic to get perhaps the more naïve among the punting ranks to part with their money.
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Nobody interested in backing @ initial offer of 5s but plenty no doubt did there dough naievely when the supposed gamble started to mount
Bookmaker PR bollax @ its finest in hoodwinking the unsuspecting |
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There is nothing to investigate. Mullins, as he always does, said he would wait until the last minute to make a decision on his two entries. Of course those really close to him might have known UDS was always going to be the chosen one and taken advantage but that is how it should be for owners / stable staff etc.
Some punters just seem desperate to gain an edge, or enjoy willy waving about how 'shrewd' they are, by backing a horse antepost at a price that will be shorter on that day - but then they squeal when they back a non runner. |
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If this had happened in any other event/sport the betting market would have been suspended straight away eg Sports Personality of the Year, and many others.
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If what had happened?
As you yourself have said nobody can get any proper money on with the bookies - even a £20 bet at 7/2 would be knocked back so other than the usual bookies PR bullshit and over dramatic reporting by the Racing Post there is nothing to worry about. |
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It is not just what has happened over the Tingle Creek that could upset some ante post punters, it is the systematic misinformation. I very rarely bet ante post and never on Mullins or A. O'Brien horses. I might lay them if the price is low enough though.
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sageform,
Indeed, constant systematic misinformation. Why did Mullins not say Douvan had been entered for this race but her preference would be a race in Ireland rather than we'd leave Douvan in until declaration? Why say something that can be construed both ways which could attract market manipulation by some privileged individuals? Now compare that with what Mrs Haggas said about Rivet after Rivet had just won the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster? Mrs Haggas: "Rivet did not enjoy Newmarket much (Dewhurst). It will be up to William and the owners, we could avoid Newmarket and look at France or Ireland." So, anyone interested in backing Rivet for the English Guineas would know there is a risk Rivet might not turn up. |
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Mullins told the Irish Times: "Hopefully he (Douvan) will be able to run soon.
"He is entered for both the Tingle Creek and the Hilly Way (Cork, December 11). "Un De Sceaux is also in at Sandown so we'll see how things work out this week, but I would imagine Douvan would run in one of the two. "The other route to go would be the John Durkan (at Punchestown on Sunday week) but we have Djakadam for that. "If they had different owners they might take each other on. "But for now at least I think Douvan will stay at two miles." Impossible. You're not making any sense. This is what MUllins said. If you could point out whats incorrect, or misleading, I'd be grateful. You've been sucked in by the Bookies PR. Thats nothing to do with Willie Mullins. |
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Anyone who jumped on the Douvan bandwagon when price was shortening, deserve their fate.
Nice slight of hand by the firms. |
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CCM
I do not listen to TV pundits or industry PR people - I go on horses forms, betting pattern and vibes; I do antepost to extract value whenever possible knowing the risks associated. Btw I struck a UDS bet at 3/1 early last week. However, I had been forced to trade because of the market manipulation by unscrupulous individuals close to the stable (it seems to only affect the Mullins' stable) aided and abetted by some bookies, but Mullins is not doing anything positive to negate it; he must know who the people responsible (cannot be joe public) as if so, not a penny will be accommodated by bookies. I hope the BHA will ask the bookies involved for identities of these respected and known faces. |
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Spot on CCM.
WPM said on Monday that a final decision would not be made on running plans until declaration time and no other statement was made thereafter. So the entries were made Tuesday morning, declarations were made this morning meaning a 48 hour window for an antepost market for anybody who wished to try and make a quick buck by second guessing the market. Any of us betting this way should be aware of the risks/rewards of betting all in, run or not. Impossible123 starts off on this thread 27/11 15.59 by saying Douvan unlikely runner but UDS probable. On 28/11 on another thread he says " I have never back(sic) his(WPM) horses antepost as it is a sure-fire loser". This thread again 30/11 17.23 " I'm on (Douvan) at 5 but offloaded most" Now he's screaming for the BHA to start an investigation into the antepost betting patterns of WPM horses! |
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firstimevisor
You really don't get it, do you? Two essential ingredients for any of my bets eg (1) it must run (2) to show a profit; if either has been compromised prior I'd take actions appropriately to redress the situation. Now, every runner is a winner for me, some more than others. However, I'd rather just have a selection and not the shenanigans relating to Douvan over the last two days; Douvan at 5/1 was forced upon and strategic. But this market manipulation is bad for antepost and Horse Racing and needs to be stamped upon. I believe the stable knows the culprit/s as it seems to mainly affect Mullins'. I hope the BHA's enquiry into the Faugheen/Annie Power Champion Hurdle affair will bring the offender/s (with the help of some bookies affected) to task and punishment applied appropriately and justly. |
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How did you cope with the Vibrato Valtat scenario this morning imp?
He was out when the decs were first released and then back in about 20 minutes later after the race was reoffered. That must have completely done your head in. |
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ReaseHeath
Tbh VV did not come into the equation at all; VV could be backed at 170/1 here prior to new market. He could turn out to be my nemesis here just like Found in the Arc. |
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On a serious note , I think Un De Sceau can get turned over. Sire De Grugy and Gods Own are both race fit and can make the favourite work for the prize.
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Impossible,were all those Arc runners winners for you?
Not really interested in your betting strategy but if you backed Douvan at 5s and offloaded at lower then are you not manipulating the market in your own way. What I really want to know is what exactly you believe WPM did wrong here.He entered 2 horses for a race and said a final decision wouldn't be made until declaration time. Nothing unusual there. When the money came for Douvan you whinged that the right faces all knew the score and had an unfair advantage. If Douvan had been declared for the Tingle Creek you would have claimed it was a stitch up by WPM and a gamble was landed if he won.The BHA should investigate. But the right faces got it wrong. Douvan wasn't declared. The gamble went south.But Impossible says its still a stitch up and WPM is still to blame because maybe it was the same right faces who laid him. The BHA should investigate. |
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I think Ar Mad will win. Form has worked out well - I thought he was very impressive last year. Moore said he has 2 better than SDG in his yard and Ar Mad has to be one of them. First run and back from injury is the concern but then I was convinced had he made Cheltenham he would have served it up to Douvan so happy with 5/1.
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Not being funny like but out of the dozens and dozens of threads Imp has started I don't recall a single winner. Lots of talk for someone who is so often wrong.
The only issue with the Douvan Tingle market was Ruby Walsh and his PP column. WPM has done anything no other trainer would do with two top class horses. |
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*done nothing
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Without being funny I do not see the need to post/announce each time I've backed a winner eg Who Dares Wins, Native River and Gibralfaro (2nd) for a win double and treble.
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All I123 does is back the very obvious favourite (mainly antepost) in the hope that it runs and goes off much shorter - then he can crow about how clever he is.
 He gets it right sometimes (Minding in the Nassau, Idaho in the Voltigeur for example) but there is never anything insightful or original about his selections, and his disregard for anything he hasn't backed (Found in the Arc being an obvious example) is quite absurd. |
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unclepuncle
I was on UDS at 3/1 because I saw value as Douvan, to me, was probably an unlikely runner given another suitable race in Ireland and Mullins' lack of propensity to run his best horses in England this time of the year. For your info, Idaho was not the 'fav' for the St Leger when he was priced up at 10/1 similarly with Seventh Heaven (9/1) in the Yorkshire Oaks; Lucida (12/1) in the 2015 1000G; The Last Samuri 25/1 (National); Churchill (12/1) 2000G; Altior (5/1) Arkle; Don Cossack (8/1) Gold Cup, and many others. I only go on 'value' given depth of race eg probable opposition/runners. If Found had not been retired I'd not back her next season either no matter what because her win/run ratio is extremely poor, and on several occasions was beaten at odds-on; she lost in the Champion Stakes and the Breeders Cup - I hope you were not on her for these two races. |
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Funny market. Everything seems weak.
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Backed Un de Sceaux win and Ar Mad each way.
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An exciting race for sure but they finished in a heap and if Douvan is half the horse he looks he will hose up in the CC.
If I were Altior's owner I'd be giving him an entry as well. |