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Frankie whipped his a*se in the SJP, Fillies and Mares and Breeders' Cup; Heffernan did the same to him in America on Highland Reel and so did Soumillon on Almanzor in the Champion Stakes.
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What kept you?
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I'm thinking Douvan will run next in the KG, assuming all goes to plan tomorrow.
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if the sponsors go 5/4 Tizzard winning the race then they are of the opinion that Thistlecrack is a non starter. They would not lay 7/2 Cue Card, unless , of course , that they had that beast down as an absentee.
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Ok starting to get slightly excited by this prospect now, Thistlecrack v Cue Card in this race. This has nothing to do with my bets as when i placed them i have said on here before i did not expect both to run but looking at the market it's certainly looking likely that the only thing that is missing is the official statement from Tizzard himself
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I still think Thistlecrack will not line-up for this race, why? Because there is absolutely no need to heap this kind of pressure on a novice chaser this being his 1st season over fences with just 3 races under his belt; there is another perfectly adequate race for this talented novice to gain more experience until his main target in March ie the Gold Cup in March - an injudicious decision by trainer and owner if I'm proven wrong.
Why take the risk when the risk is so wholly unnecessary? The target is in March! |
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I'm not sure i agree. I would certainly pitch him into a race that as a whole is an easier assignment than to that of what would be an ultra competitive renewal of the CGC in March! Not only to see if he was up to the task but also to gain as much experience as possible! The blue riband in march can be a blood bath of a race and this years renewal at this early stage imo is already looking like a cracker where as this years KG, think there will be about 7 runners, of which only 3 i would give a realistic chance to!
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Horse Racing is all about opinions and I do appreciate a reasonable alternative response to any of mine no matter how absurd out far fetched (at times) without recourse to personal insult, obscenity or infantile behaviour from either party.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup could be a blood bath, I agree, and last year was no different hence more experience is required for Thistlecrack. But from the same stable of the deserved/solid favourite Cue Card, a race or two too soon and with the ultimate target in March is wholly unnecessary, in my view. Why go to battle if one's chances of victory could be enhanced with more preps prior to engagement? Thistlecrack is a very talented horse and if the Gold Cup in March is his main aim and fences his new discipline for the future there is absolutely nothing to be gained rushing and running him in this race this year. It'd be lovely for racegoers and racing enthusiasts if Thistlecrack turns up but never take one's eye off the ball, that's all I say to connections. |
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impossible, I agree the KG is unlikely for Thistlecrack.
But I also believe his best chance of Gold Cup glory is to compete in a full blooded race against seasoned, top class horses beforehand. Trotting up against three novices in the Feltham will teach him nothing and, with the possible exception of the Cotswold Chase, I can't see him gaining relevant experience that will aid his cause. In addition, were he to run in the KG and not perform well, there's still the chance of re-routing to another Stayers Hurdle. It would be a brave call but I can see why they're considering it. |
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I123 - seems to me just want Thistlecrack to be aimed elsewhere so that your antepost bet on Cue Card has more chance of collecting. Presumably you were hoping to be able to lay off your stake at a really short price so you could have a nice free bet, but Thistlecracks participation is preventing that.
If you genuinely feel Thistlecrack should not be running as he isn't up to the task yet, then you should welcome his participation as you will be able to back Cue Card again at a much bigger price than would otherwise be the case. CC might not even be favourite on the day. ![]() |
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I had not backed Cue Card prior to the Betfair Chase at over 6/1; Cue Card at 5/2 and 2/1 is no feasible and/or profitable proposition to lay despite what others may think of my m o.
I am sick and tired of reading posts that the antepost value for races is long gone; it has been reduced (significantly), but one has to deal with it and try to extract and/or enhanced value by taking a position early (earlier) thus accepting/taking on associated risks as a result. But my personal views about the participation of Thistlecrack is totally genuine and not pocket induced! The present price of Cue Card after his last win is not reflecting his triumphant victory over Coneygree, the rightful 2nd fav and uncertain runner without Thistlecrack, is great value. |
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Sara Bradstock, the trainer of Coneygree, has been reported not to be afraid of Thistlecrack - she is (very though) of Cue Card. Of Thistlecrack, she said he is jumping over fences rather than racing over them; Cue Card could be beaten if Coneygree could stretch him early in the race and not allow him to lop along behind waiting to pounce.
Coneygree will only run if the ground is conducive. The present forecast is little or no rain until Boxing Day itself at Kempton Park. |
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Josses Hill, shortening on here yet not one bookmaker has any prices for him. Is he being aimed elsewhere?
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comments from Henderson yesterday to the effect that they were strongly considering supplementing him - in contrast to what he said after Josses Hill won the Peterborough.
Bookmakers probably don't have prices because he currently is n't entered. |
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don't want to put you away - what the article actually says is 'not completely ruling out' which is very different from 'strongly considering', anyway link below
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/47725/ground-key-to-coneygrees-king-george-bid-with-cue-card-seen-as-the-big-thre It was from the media launch on Monday -perhaps Henderson needed a sound bite about potentially having a runner so that he could enjoy the free lunch. ![]() |
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![]() Sounds about right Rease (hic)! |
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How many are going to turn up , Coneygree , Cue Card , Thistlecrack ??? , Tea For Two .....can't see many more even running.
Mind Wayward Lad , Burrough Hill Lad and Combs Ditch put on quite a show with only 3 runners. |
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Latest from Collin Tizzard on Thistlecrack's participation: "50-50 call...should the going be really soft it would increase Thistlecrack's chances of going for the King George."
From the above I'd infer the chances of Thistlecrack lining-up is lesser than not. The present weather forecast for Kempton Park is about 25mm but no precipitation until 23rd Dec - the Confirmation Date is 19th Dec. |
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I can see Conti running - I know Nicholls said he might not, but he'll surely look at it as an opportunity to pick up some place prize money if it cuts up. I think Irish Cavalier might run too, his rating will surely make it just as difficult for him in handicaps?
And I reckon Gigginstown might have a runner, Road to Riches maybe if he's not still sidelined after the kissing spines operation. But,yes, we're probably looking at 7 runners max. |
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Hope Irish does run, think he has an outside chance of running into the three without troubling the winner or even 2nd if they go hard from the get go and with the promise of Coneygree going to go out at a million miles an hour at 100/1 it's cheap enough to find out
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My guess is 9 , 10 if Road To Riches can run.
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So, according to Nicholls' quotes on RP, Conti is another who could be scared off by Thistlecrack!
Tizzard must be giving serious consideration to running Thistlecrack solely on the basis that it could end up being two from his stable vs Coneygree! (and even Coneygree runs with proviso that ground is no quicker than Good to Soft). It's interesting that, given all the media and public debate about the merit in Thistlecrack running in the race as a novice, that there's a few in the industry who seem reluctant to take him on. They don't say that about Cue Card. |
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Nichols: "If Thistlecrack didn't run and there were only five or six in it, we might be tempted."
I think he was more interested winning some good prize money. But I still doubt very much Thistlecrack will run; the Bradstocks are leaning towards this race now rather than the Lexus (travelling, I think) especially if the ground is suitable - the present forecast is not favourable though with little rain expected. |
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He wants to win the Kauto Star .
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11/4 (PP) on CC to win the KG and TC to win the Feltham (KS).
I think they will be kept apart as does the market on here. Not an official contingency but it almost should be. It's likely the SP on the double would be 11/8 or shorter, the turning up part of the double is long odds on for me. |
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coneygree out shame for the race it needed him...i think he'll definitely run thistlecrack now myself
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i hope so, cos if thistlecrack doesnt run i cant remember a poorer king george in my 30 yrs of watching the race.
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If Colin Tizzard does as he says and makes the decision based on the best interest of each on an individual basis, then the withdrawal of Coneygree makes it more likely that TC runs in the KG. Coneygree setting a searching pace would have tested more a novice's jumping.
Most trainers would want to win both prizes both Colin comes across as an authentic gent. He has previously stated that the ground will be a major deciding factor as soft ground wouldn't put as much pressure on TC'S jumping. Dry weather gives him an out and could allow him make the decision he surely wants to. Very poor field if the stable match doesn't materialize. |
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If Colin Tizzard does as he says and makes the decision based on the best interest of each on an individual basis, then the withdrawal of Coneygree makes it more likely that TC runs in the KG. Coneygree setting a searching pace would have tested more a novice's jumping.
I agree with this - Thistlecrack's presence is also likely to limit the opposition from other stables based on comments from Nicholls (Silvianaco Conti) and Gary Moore (Ar Mad - though that one is not going to run anyway now). It's not a key factor - but also worth pointing out that last year prize money for 2nd in King George was a few £k more than for 1st in the Kauto Star. But I also agree with your observation about the ground giving him an out, dj876. I suspect the match won't materialise, will be presently surprised if it does. |
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I actually don't think there will be a small field anymore. With Coneygree now out which is a sad thing on it's own, every bookmaker are still offering 3 places at either 1/4 or 1/5th and looking down them on oddschecker at what is blue and what isn't it is clear to me who these bookmakers think will actually run.
Think there be 10-12 runners personally and not without a chance of a turn up at a big price. |
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Surely Henderson must supplement Josses Hill now?
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Where is the 11/4 CC Thistlscrack double ? Cant see it on paddys website.
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It wasn't a special but was available this morning when I posted (prior to the Coneygree announcement).
CC was 6/4 and TC was 1/2 with PP so 11/4 , a related bet that you can get away with it |
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It's shorter since the announcement as CC is now odds on.
I am not that pleased about the announcement as explained previously I think it increases the likelyhood of TC running in this if you take Tizzard for his word that it's a separate decision. I didn't fancy Conegryee on goodish ground at Kempton and my main dockets are waiting on CC so not all that pleased that TC is a more likely contender imo |
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Despite Coneygree having been ruled out and Cue Card into odds-on Thistlecrack is still easy to back and little demand similar to last night where Thistlecrack was generally available at 6 and even matched at 8 here.
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Someone is still laying Thistlecrack - I wonder who? 7 at the moment.
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Assuming Thistlecrack doesn't run we face to prospect of:
Cue Card Tea for two Josses Hill Silviniaco Conti Irish Cavalier Have I missed any others? ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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For the sake of the race I'd like to see Thistlecrack take on CC, for personal punting reasons I hope he goes to the Feltham.
I'm sure CT would prefer the chances of winning both, but will be interesting to see how it pans out. Coneygree took the big prize after the Feltham, so it's not without precedent. |
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Thistlecrack runs.
That has saved the race. |
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Good for connections, better price for Cue Card supporters and racegoers. Bring it on!
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