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King George 26th December 2016

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Replies: 152
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Dec 16 22:48
Frankie whipped his a*se in the SJP, Fillies and Mares and Breeders' Cup; Heffernan did the same to him in America on Highland Reel and so did Soumillon on Almanzor in the Champion Stakes.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 10 Dec 16 11:10
What kept you?
By:
firstimevisor
When: 10 Dec 16 19:42
I'm thinking Douvan will run next in the KG, assuming all goes to plan tomorrow.
By:
dunlaying
When: 11 Dec 16 17:52
if the sponsors go 5/4 Tizzard winning the race then they are of the opinion that Thistlecrack is a non starter. They would not lay 7/2 Cue Card, unless , of course , that they had that beast down as an absentee.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 12 Dec 16 09:53
Ok starting to get slightly excited by this prospect now, Thistlecrack v Cue Card in this race. This has nothing to do with my bets as when i placed them i have said on here before i did not expect both to run but looking at the market it's certainly looking likely that the only thing that is missing is the official statement from Tizzard himself Tongue Out
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Dec 16 12:06
I still think Thistlecrack will not line-up for this race, why? Because there is absolutely no need to heap this kind of pressure on a novice chaser this being his 1st season over fences with just 3 races under his belt; there is another perfectly adequate race for this talented novice to gain more experience until his main target in March ie the Gold Cup in March - an injudicious decision by trainer and owner if I'm proven wrong.

Why take the risk when the risk is so wholly unnecessary? The target is in March!
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 12 Dec 16 12:13
I'm not sure i agree. I would certainly pitch him into a race that as a whole is an easier assignment than to that of what would be an ultra competitive renewal of the CGC in March! Not only to see if he was up to the task but also to gain as much experience as possible! The blue riband in march can be a blood bath of a race and this years renewal at this early stage imo is already looking like a cracker where as this years KG, think there will be about 7 runners, of which only 3 i would give a realistic chance to!
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Dec 16 13:32
Horse Racing is all about opinions and I do appreciate a reasonable alternative response to any of mine no matter how absurd out far fetched (at times) without recourse to personal insult, obscenity or infantile behaviour from either party.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup could be a blood bath, I agree, and last year was no different hence more experience is required for Thistlecrack. But from the same stable of the deserved/solid favourite Cue Card, a race or two too soon and with the ultimate target in March is wholly unnecessary, in my view.

Why go to battle if one's chances of victory could be enhanced with more preps prior to engagement? Thistlecrack is a very talented horse and if the Gold Cup in March is his main aim and fences his new discipline for the future there is absolutely nothing to be gained rushing and running him in this race this year.

It'd be lovely for racegoers and racing enthusiasts if Thistlecrack turns up but never take one's eye off the ball, that's all I say to connections.
By:
cyclops
When: 12 Dec 16 13:53
impossible, I agree the KG is unlikely for Thistlecrack.
But I also believe his best chance of Gold Cup glory is to compete in a full blooded race against seasoned, top class horses beforehand. Trotting up against three novices in the Feltham will teach him nothing and, with the possible exception of the Cotswold Chase, I can't see him gaining relevant experience that will aid his cause. In addition, were he to run in the KG and not perform well, there's still the chance of re-routing to another Stayers Hurdle.
It would be a brave call but I can see why they're considering it.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 Dec 16 14:16
I123 - seems to me just want Thistlecrack to be aimed elsewhere so that your antepost bet on Cue Card has more chance of collecting. Presumably you were hoping to be able to lay off your stake at a really short price so you could have a nice free bet, but Thistlecracks participation is preventing that.

If you genuinely feel Thistlecrack should not be running as he isn't up to the task yet, then you should welcome his participation as you will be able to back Cue Card again at a much bigger price than would otherwise be the case. CC might not even be favourite on the day.Shocked
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Dec 16 14:51
I had not backed Cue Card prior to the Betfair Chase at over 6/1; Cue Card at 5/2 and 2/1 is no feasible and/or profitable proposition to lay despite what others may think of my m o.

I am sick and tired of reading posts that the antepost value for races is long gone; it has been reduced (significantly), but one has to deal with it and try to extract and/or enhanced value by taking a position early (earlier) thus accepting/taking on associated risks as a result. But my personal views about the participation of Thistlecrack is totally genuine and not pocket induced!

The present price of Cue Card after his last win is not reflecting his triumphant victory over Coneygree, the rightful 2nd fav and uncertain runner without Thistlecrack, is great value.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Dec 16 10:38
Sara Bradstock, the trainer of Coneygree, has been reported not to be afraid of Thistlecrack - she is (very though) of Cue Card. Of Thistlecrack, she said he is jumping over fences rather than racing over them; Cue Card could be beaten if Coneygree could stretch him early in the race and not allow him to lop along behind waiting to pounce.

Coneygree will only run if the ground is conducive. The present forecast is little or no rain until Boxing Day itself at Kempton Park.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 14 Dec 16 10:19
Josses Hill, shortening on here yet not one bookmaker has any prices for him. Is he being aimed elsewhere?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Dec 16 10:55
comments from Henderson yesterday to the effect that they were strongly considering supplementing him - in contrast to what he said after Josses Hill won the Peterborough.

Bookmakers probably don't have prices because he currently is n't entered.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Dec 16 11:12
don't want to put you away - what the article actually says is 'not completely ruling out' which is very different from 'strongly considering', anyway link below

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/47725/ground-key-to-coneygrees-king-george-bid-with-cue-card-seen-as-the-big-thre

It was from the media launch on Monday -perhaps Henderson needed a sound bite about potentially having a runner so that he could enjoy the free lunch. Grin
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 14 Dec 16 13:38
Laugh

Sounds about right Rease (hic)!
By:
sixtwosix
When: 14 Dec 16 17:04
How many are going to turn up , Coneygree  , Cue Card , Thistlecrack ??? , Tea For Two .....can't see many more even running.

Mind Wayward Lad , Burrough Hill Lad and Combs Ditch put on quite a show with only 3 runners.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Dec 16 18:19
Latest from Collin Tizzard on Thistlecrack's participation: "50-50 call...should the going be really soft it would increase Thistlecrack's chances of going for the King George."

From the above I'd infer the chances of Thistlecrack lining-up is lesser than not.

The present weather forecast for Kempton Park is about 25mm but no precipitation until 23rd Dec - the Confirmation Date is 19th Dec.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Dec 16 21:51
I can see Conti running - I know Nicholls said he might not, but he'll surely look at it as an opportunity to pick up some place prize money if it cuts up. I think Irish Cavalier might run too, his rating will surely make it just as difficult for him in handicaps?

And I reckon Gigginstown might have a runner, Road to Riches maybe if he's not still sidelined after the kissing spines operation.

But,yes, we're probably looking at 7 runners max.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 14 Dec 16 23:05
Hope Irish does run, think he has an outside chance of running into the three without troubling the winner or even 2nd if they go hard from the get go and with the promise of Coneygree going to go out at a million miles an hour at 100/1 it's cheap enough to find out
By:
dunlaying
When: 15 Dec 16 09:10
My guess is 9 , 10 if Road To Riches can run.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 16 Dec 16 14:49
So, according to Nicholls' quotes on RP, Conti is another who could be scared off by Thistlecrack!

Tizzard must be giving serious consideration to running Thistlecrack solely on the basis that it could end up being two from his stable vs Coneygree! (and even Coneygree runs with proviso that ground is no quicker than Good to Soft).

It's interesting that, given all the media and public debate about the merit in Thistlecrack running in the race as a novice, that there's a few in the industry who seem reluctant to take him on. They don't say that about Cue Card.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Dec 16 19:33
Nichols: "If Thistlecrack didn't run and there were only five or six in it, we might be tempted."

I think he was more interested winning some good prize money. But I still doubt very much Thistlecrack will run; the Bradstocks are leaning towards this race now rather than the Lexus (travelling, I think) especially if the ground is suitable - the present forecast is not favourable though with little rain expected.
By:
dunlaying
When: 16 Dec 16 20:42
He wants to win the Kauto Star .
By:
dj876
When: 18 Dec 16 11:32
11/4 (PP) on CC to win the KG and TC to win the Feltham (KS).

I think they will be kept apart as does the market on here.

Not an official contingency but it almost should be.

It's likely the SP on the double would be 11/8 or shorter, the turning up part of the double is long odds on for me.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 18 Dec 16 13:03
coneygree out shame for the race it needed him...i think he'll definitely run thistlecrack now myself
By:
tony2914
When: 18 Dec 16 13:06
i hope so, cos if thistlecrack doesnt run i cant remember a poorer king george in my 30 yrs of watching the race.
By:
dj876
When: 18 Dec 16 13:22
If Colin Tizzard does as he says and makes the decision based on the best interest of each on an individual basis, then the withdrawal  of Coneygree makes it more likely that TC runs in the KG. Coneygree setting a searching pace would have tested more a novice's jumping.

Most trainers would want to win both prizes both Colin comes across as an authentic gent.

He has previously stated that the ground will be a major deciding factor as soft ground wouldn't put as much pressure on TC'S jumping. Dry weather gives him an out and could allow him make the decision he surely wants to. 

Very poor field if the stable match doesn't materialize.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 18 Dec 16 13:34
If Colin Tizzard does as he says and makes the decision based on the best interest of each on an individual basis, then the withdrawal  of Coneygree makes it more likely that TC runs in the KG. Coneygree setting a searching pace would have tested more a novice's jumping.

I agree with this - Thistlecrack's presence is also likely to limit the opposition from other stables based on comments from Nicholls (Silvianaco Conti) and Gary Moore (Ar Mad - though that one is not going to run anyway now).

It's not a key factor - but also worth pointing out that last year prize money for 2nd in King George was a few £k more than for 1st in the Kauto Star.

But I also agree with your observation about the ground giving him an out, dj876. I suspect the match won't materialise, will be presently surprised if it does.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 18 Dec 16 14:18
I actually don't think there will be a small field anymore. With Coneygree now out which is a sad thing on it's own, every bookmaker are still offering 3 places at either 1/4 or 1/5th and looking down them on oddschecker at what is blue and what isn't it is clear to me who these bookmakers think will actually run.

Think there be 10-12 runners personally and not without a chance of a turn up at a big price.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Dec 16 14:30
Surely Henderson must supplement Josses Hill now?
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 18 Dec 16 14:36
Where is the 11/4 CC Thistlscrack double ? Cant see it on paddys website.
By:
dj876
When: 18 Dec 16 14:43
It wasn't a special but was available this morning when I posted (prior to the Coneygree announcement).

CC was 6/4 and TC was 1/2 with PP so 11/4 , a related bet that you can get away with it
By:
dj876
When: 18 Dec 16 14:46
It's shorter since the announcement as CC is now odds on.

I am not that pleased about the announcement as explained previously I think it increases the likelyhood of TC running in this if you take Tizzard for his word that it's a separate decision.

I didn't fancy Conegryee on goodish ground at Kempton and my main dockets are waiting on CC so not all that pleased that TC is a more likely contender imo
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Dec 16 17:13
Despite Coneygree having been ruled out and Cue Card into odds-on Thistlecrack is still easy to back and little demand similar to last night where Thistlecrack was generally available at 6 and even matched at 8 here.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Dec 16 21:57
Someone is still laying Thistlecrack - I wonder who? 7 at the moment.
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 18 Dec 16 22:02
Assuming Thistlecrack doesn't run we face to prospect of:

Cue Card
Tea for two
Josses Hill
Silviniaco Conti
Irish Cavalier

Have I missed any others? SadCryShocked
By:
johnn
When: 19 Dec 16 09:39
For the sake of the race I'd like to see Thistlecrack take on CC, for personal punting reasons I hope he goes to the Feltham.
I'm sure CT would prefer the chances of winning both, but will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Coneygree took the big prize after the Feltham, so it's not without precedent.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Dec 16 10:51
Thistlecrack runs.

That has saved the race.
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Dec 16 11:00
Good for connections, better price for Cue Card supporters and racegoers. Bring it on!
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